To send content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about sending content to .
To send content items to your Kindle, first ensure firstname.lastname@example.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about sending to your Kindle.
Note you can select to send to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Risk assessment of future violent acts is of great importance for both
public protection and care planning. Structured clinical assessments
offer a method by which accurate assessments could be achieved.
To test the efficacy of the Historical, Clinical and Risk Management
Scales (HCR–20) structured risk assessment scheme on a large sample of
male forensic psychiatric patients discharged from medium secure units in
In a pseudo-prospective study, 887 male patients were followed for at
least 2 years. The HCR-20 was completed using only pre-discharge
information, and violent and other offending behaviour post-discharge was
obtained from official records.
The HCR–20 total score was a good predictor of both violent and other
offences following discharge. The historical and risk sub-scales were
both able to predict offences, but the clinical sub-scale did not produce
significant predictions. The predictive efficacy was highest for short
periods (under 1 year) and showed a modest fall in efficacy over longer
periods (5 years).
The results provide a strong evidence base that the HCR–20 is a good
predictor of both violent and non-violent offending following release
from medium secure units for male forensic psychiatric patients in the
Actuarial instruments may be useful in predicting long-term violence in mentally disordered patients. We compared two instruments that differ in terms of what they are designed to predict (general versus violent recividism) and the inclusion of stable mental health variables.
A large sample of mentally disordered patients were scored on two risk assessment instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), based on information at the point of discharge. Their criminal histories for at least 2 years following discharge were obtained from official records.
Both instruments were good predictors of both violent and general offending. Over shorter periods (<1 year) the VRAG had very good predictive validities for both types of offences [areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) >0·85], which were significantly better than the OGRS. For longer follow-up periods the instruments had approximately equal prediction accuracy. However, both instruments predicted far more offences than were in fact recorded.
The VRAG is a very good predictor of future violence in the UK sample. The OGRS may also be of value as it can be completed quickly and without the need for mental health variables. Caution is needed, however, as both instruments appeared to over-predict the levels of reconvictions in this sample.
Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this to your organisation's collection.