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Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
When there exists slip on the surface of a solid body moving in an unsteady manner, the extent of slip is not fixed but constantly changes with the time-varying Stokes boundary layer thickness
in competition with the slip length
. Here we revisit the unsteady motion of a slippery spherical particle to elucidate this dynamic slip situation. We find that even if the amount of slip is minuscule, it can dramatically change the characteristics of the history force, markedly different from those due to non-spherical and fluid particles (Lawrence & Weinbaum, J. Fluid Mech., vol. 171, 1986, pp. 209–218; Yang & Leal, Phys. Fluids A, vol. 3, 1991, pp. 1822–1824). For an oscillatory translation of such a particle of radius
, two distinctive features are identified in the frequency response of the viscous drag: (i) the high-frequency constant force plateau of
much greater than the steady drag due to a constant shear stress caused by
much thinner than
and (ii) the persistence of the plateau while lowering the frequency until the slip–stick transition point
, beyond which
becomes thicker and the usual Basset decay reappears. Similar features can also be observed in the short-term force response for the particle subject to a sudden movement, as well as in the behaviour of the torque when it undergoes rotary oscillations. In addition, for both translational and rotary oscillations, slip can further introduce a phase jump from the no-slip value to zero in the high-frequency limit. As these features and the associated slip–stick transitions become more evident as
becomes smaller and are exclusive to the situation where surface slip is present, they might have potential uses for extracting the slip length of a colloidal particle from experiments.
Low-pressure regional aureoles with steep metamorphic field gradients are critical to understanding progressive metamorphism in high-temperature metasedimentary rocks. Delicately layered pelitic and psammitic metasedimentary rocks at Mt Stafford, central Australia, record a greenschist- to granulite-facies Palaeoproterozoic regional aureole, associated with S-type granite plutons, reflecting metamorphism in the range 500–800 °C and at ∼3 kbar. The rocks experienced minimal deformation during metamorphism and partial melting. Partial melting textures evolve progressively along the steep metamorphic field gradient from the incipient stages of melting marked by cuspate grains with low dihedral angles, to melt proportions sufficient to form diatexite with schollen. Phase equilibria modelling in the NCKFMASHTO system for pelitic, semi-pelitic and high- and low-ferromagnesian psammitic samples quantitatively illustrates the dependence of partial melting on rock composition and water volume. Pelitic compositions are more fertile than psammitic compositions when the water content in the rocks is low, especially during the early stages of melting. The whole-rock ferromagnesian component additionally influences melt fertility, with ferromagnesian-rich psammite being more fertile than psammite with a lower ferromagnesian component. Subtle variations in free water content can result in obvious changes in melt volume but limited variation in melt composition. Distinct melting histories of pelitic and psammitic rocks inferred from field relationships may be partially attributed to potential differences in water volume retained to super-solidus conditions. Melt composition is more dependent on the rock composition than the variation in water content.
Transnational migrant populations face critical barriers to mental health service utilization that perpetuate mental health disparities globally. Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) number over 2 million globally and 25% are female domestic workers. Structural barriers prevent equitable access to mental health services for this population. Electronic mental health (eMental Health) intervention is a scalable alternative to face-to-face treatment. The current study sought to identify key correlates of intention to use eMental Health within a community of female Filipino domestic workers living and working in Macao (SAR), China.
Respondent-driven sampling implemented at a community field site was used to reach a sample of 1364 female domestic workers. A multivariable adjusted partial proportional-odds (PPO) model was used to assess relevant correlates of intent to use eMental Health.
The majority (62.8%) reported being likely to utilize eMental Health. The adjusted PPO model showed that younger age (18–25, 26–35, 36–45 v. over 55), longer time as an OFW, being likely (v. neutral and unlikely) to seek professional services, willingness to pay for services (v. not), belief that mental health services are a priority (v. low priority), having access to Wi-Fi outside the employer's home (v. not), and higher levels of social support were associated with increased odds of intent to use eMental Health.
eMental Health is a promising intervention with high potential for uptake among OFWs. The majority of the study population owned a smartphone and were able to connect to the Internet or Wi-Fi. Future work will rigorously evaluate eMental Health programs for use among OFWs.
Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) is an evidence-based treatment program for people with severe mental illness developed in high-income countries. We report the first randomized controlled trial of ACT in mainland China.
Sixty outpatients with schizophrenia with severe functional impairments or frequent hospitalizations were randomly assigned to ACT (n = 30) or standard community treatment (n = 30). The severity of symptoms and level of social functioning were assessed at baseline and every 3 months during the 1-year study. The primary outcome was the duration of hospital readmission. Secondary outcomes included a pre-post change in symptom severity, the rates of symptom relapse and gainful employment, social and occupational functioning, and quality of life of family caregivers.
Based on a modified intention-to-treat analysis, the outcomes for ACT were significantly better than those of standard community treatment. ACT patients were less likely to be readmitted [3.3% (1/30) v. 25.0% (7/28), Fisher's exact test p = 0.023], had a shorter mean readmission time [2.4 (13.3) v. 30.7 (66.9) days], were less likely to relapse [6.7% (2/30) v. 28.6% (8/28), Fisher's exact test p = 0.038], and had shorter mean time in relapse [3.5 (14.6) v. 34.4 (70.6) days]. The ACT group also had significantly longer times re-employed and greater symptomatic improvement and their caregivers experienced a greater improvement in their quality of life.
Our results show that culturally adapted ACT is both feasible and effective for individuals with severe schizophrenia in urban China. Replication studies with larger samples and longer duration of follow up are warranted.
The authors developed a practical and clinically useful model to predict the risk of psychosis that utilizes clinical characteristics empirically demonstrated to be strong predictors of conversion to psychosis in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals. The model is based upon the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and accompanying clinical interview, and yields scores indicating one's risk of conversion.
Baseline data, including demographic and clinical characteristics measured by the SIPS, were obtained on 199 CHR individuals seeking evaluation in the early detection and intervention for mental disorders program at the New York State Psychiatric Institute at Columbia University Medical Center. Each patient was followed for up to 2 years or until they developed a syndromal DSM-4 disorder. A LASSO logistic fitting procedure was used to construct a model for conversion specifically to a psychotic disorder.
At 2 years, 64 patients (32.2%) converted to a psychotic disorder. The top five variables with relatively large standardized effect sizes included SIPS subscales of visual perceptual abnormalities, dysphoric mood, unusual thought content, disorganized communication, and violent ideation. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.73, indicating a moderately strong ability to discriminate between converters and non-converters.
The prediction model performed well in classifying converters and non-converters and revealed SIPS measures that are relatively strong predictors of conversion, comparable with the risk calculator published by NAPLS (c-index = 0.71), but requiring only a structured clinical interview. Future work will seek to externally validate the model and enhance its performance with the incorporation of relevant biomarkers.
Two middle Permian (Capitanian) to Early Triassic (Griesbachian) rugosochonetidae brachiopod genera, Fusichonetes Liao in Zhao et al., 1981 and Tethyochonetes Chen et al., 2000, have been regarded as two distinct taxa and used as such for a wide range of discussions including biostratigraphy, paleoecology, paleobiogeography, and the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction. However, the supposed morphological distinctions between the two taxa are subtle at best and appear to represent two end members of a continuum of morphological variations. In this study, we applied a range of quantitative and analytical procedures (bivariate plots, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, categorical principle component analysis, and cladistic analysis) to a dataset of 15 quantified morphological variables, integrating both key external and internal characters, measured from 141 specimens of all well-known Fusichonetes and Tethyochonetes in order to test whether or not these two genera could be distinguished in view of the chosen characters. The results indicate that these two genera are morphologically indistinguishable and that the species classification previously applied to these two genera appears to represent polyphyletic groupings within the genus Fusichonetes. Consequently, Tethyochonetes is concluded to be a junior synonym of Fusichonetes. The diagnosis and key characteristics of Fusichonetes are clarified and refined based on a new suite of well-preserved specimens from the Permian−Triassic Xinmin section in South China.
The Keck II Deep Imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph (DEIMOS) is a general purpose, faint object, multi-slit, double-beam spectrograph which offers wide spectral coverage, high spectral resolution, high throughput, and long slit length on the sky. This powerful instrument will be the principal optical spectrograph on the Keck II telescope. DEIMOS is optimized for faint-object spectroscopy of individual point sources, low-surface-brightness extended objects, or widely distributed samples of faint objects on the sky. To obtain high resolution (∼ 1 å) and wide spectral coverage (up to 5000 å) the spectrograph uses wide angle cameras and large CCD detectors with many pixels.
This paper describes some of the work being carried out to obtain the CCD detectors required for the DEIMOS spectrograph. In addition, results are presented on the fabrication and characterization of a 4k × 2k three-side buttable CCD produced by Orbit Semiconductor, a silicon foundry in San Jose, California. This CCD was fabricated to test the ability of Orbit to produce high quality scientific CCDs with the characteristics required for detectors to be used in DEIMOS and other optical instruments of the Keck Observatory.
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
Background: Mowat-Wilson Syndrome (MWS) is a genetic syndrome (ZEB2, OMIM: 235730) that occurs in 1 in 50000 births. It is characterized by microcephaly, intellectual disability, dysmorphisms (prominent chin, cupped ears, broad nasal bridge) and Hirschsprung’s disease. Although motor delay and hypotonia are common components, a myopathy has not been described in MWS literature. A childhood case with myopathic features prompted further study of this rare disease. Methods: Patients were recruited from the Mowat-Wilson Foundation via email or social media to complete a survey. Results: Thirteen surveys were returned to date. Although 54% of the patients reported motor delay, none of the patients had myopathy investigations. The index patient, presented at 1 year old, with hypotonia and developmental delay. Pregnancy and family history were unremarkable. Investigations revealed high CK levels (range 300 to 500 U/L), EMG confirmed myopathic motor units, and muscle biopsy showed type 1 fibre predominance. Single gene sequencing revealed pathogenic mutations of ZEB2, confirming a diagnosis of MWS. Conclusions: The description of myopathic features expands the spectrum of this rare syndrome and adds to the differential diagnosis of hyperCKemia in early childhood.
We report on the results of a UV-Optical spectral monitoring of the bright Seyfert 1 galactic nuclei Mkn 335. This campaign began in June, 1989, and ended in June, 1991. Ultraviolet spectra of fourteen epochs at nearly uniform sampling of 30-day intervals, except when the object was inaccessible from the IUE satellite, have been obtained, of which twelve were coordinated with quasi-simultaneous ground-based optical observations made at Lick Observatory.
Endeavours to control urogenital schistosomiasis on Unguja Island (Zanzibar) have focused on school-aged children. To assess the impact of an associated health education campaign, the supervised use of the comic-strip medical booklet Juma na Kichocho by Class V pupils attending eighteen primary schools was investigated. A validated knowledge and attitudes questionnaire was completed at baseline and repeated one year later following the regular use of the booklet during the calendar year. A scoring system (ranging from 0.0 to 5.0) measured children’s understandings of schistosomiasis and malaria, with the latter being a neutral comparator against specific changes for schistosomiasis. In 2006, the average score from 751 children (328 boys and 423 girls) was 2.39 for schistosomiasis and 3.03 for malaria. One year later, the score was 2.43 for schistosomiasis and 2.70 for malaria from 779 children (351 boys and 428 girls). As might be expected, knowledge and attitudes scores for schistosomiasis increased (+0.05), but not as much as originally hoped, while the score for malaria decreased (−0.33). According to a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, neither change was statistically significant. Analysis also revealed that 75% of school children misunderstood the importance of reinfection after treatment with praziquantel. These results are disappointing. They demonstrate that it is mistaken to assume that knowledge conveyed in child-friendly booklets will necessarily be interpreted, and acted upon, in the way intended. If long-term sustained behavioural change is to be achieved, health education materials need to engage more closely with local understandings and responses to urogenital schistosomiasis. This, in turn, needs to be part of the development of a more holistic, biosocial approach to the control of schistosomiasis.
Heteroepitaxial growth of high-quality II-VI-alloy materials on Si substrates is a well-established commercial growth process for infrared (IR) detector devices. However, it has only recently been recognized that these same processes may have important applications for production of high-efficiency photovoltaic devices. This submission reviews the process developments that have enabled effective heteroepitaxy of II-VI alloy materials on lattice-mismatched Si for IR detectors as a foundation to describe recent efforts to apply these insights to the fabrication of multijunction Si/CdZnTe devices with ultimate conversion efficiencies >40%. Reviewed photovoltaic studies include multijunction Si/CdZnTe devices with conversion efficiency of ∼17%, analysis of structural and optoelectrical quality of undoped CdTe epilayer films on Si, and the effect that a Te-rich growth environment has on the structural and optoelectronic quality of both undoped and As-doped heteroepitaxial CdTe.
The EDTA-soluble fractions extracted from rostra of two late Cretaceous belemnites (Cephalopoda), Gonioteuthis and Belemnitella, were divided into an humic acid and a fulvic acid fraction (the latter was absent in Belemnitella). The extracts are compared with preparations from shells of two recent cephalopods, Nautilus pompilius and Sepia officinalis. Use was made of immunology, amino acid analysis, pyrolysis mass spectrometry and some other techniques.
The fulvic acid fraction of Gonioteuthis, a mixed peptide-like saccharide-like substance, produced confluent immunodiffusion patterns with an EDTA-soluble Nautilus extract against anti-Nautilus rabbit serum. The humic acid of Gonioteuthis did not contain D-alloisoleucine and its amino acid composition was very similar to that of the EDTA-insoluble fraction of Nautilus. This humic acid was enriched in polyphenol, which may be due to chemical reaction of peptides and carbohydrates during diagenesis. It is concluded that both fractions of Gonioteuthis are original belemnite materials that have undergone only minor alterations during diagenesis.
This is an exploratory study of biochemical compounds derived from fossils, with particular emphasis on immunological methods.
To evaluate the long-term efficacy of out-patient neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet laser photocoagulation surgery for patients with epistaxis.
A retrospective clinical study was conducted. A total of 217 consecutive patients who presented with acute or recurrent epistaxis received neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet laser photocoagulation treatment in an out-patient setting.
At three years, 94 per cent of acute epistaxis patients versus 88 per cent of recurrent epistaxis patients reported no bleeding. The outcome scores at 12 weeks and 3 years after treatment showed no significant differences between the 2 groups (p = 0.207 and p = 0.186). However, there was a significant difference in outcome scores at four weeks after treatment (p = 0.034). The median (and mean ± standard deviation) pain levels experienced during the laser operation (performed in an office setting) were 4.0 (3.75 ± 2.09) in the acute epistaxis group and 4.0 (3.83 ± 2.01) in the recurrent epistaxis group. Neither group had any complications.
Neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet laser photocoagulation is desirable in the treatment of both acute and recurrent epistaxis, and has long-lasting efficacy.