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Background: Based on data obtained from hospitals in the city of Belo Horizonte (population ~3,000,000), we evaluated relevant factors such as death, age, duration of surgery, potential for contamination and surgical site infection, plastic surgery, and craniotomy. The possibility of predicting surgical site infection (SSI) was then analyzed using pattern recognition algorithms based on MLP (multilayer perceptron). Methods: Data were collected by the hospital infection control committees (CCIHs) in hospitals in Belo Horizonte between 2016 and 2018. The noisy records were filtered, and the occurrences were analyzed. Finally, the predictive power of SSI of 5 types MLP was evaluated experimentally: momentum, backpropagation standard, weight decay, resilient propagation, and quick propagation. The model used 3, 5, 7, and 10 neurons in the occult layer and with resamples varied the number of records for testing (65% and 75%) and for validation (35% and 25%). Comparisons were made by measuring the AUC (area under the curve (range, 0–1). Results: From 1,096 records of craniotomy, 289 were usable for analysis. Moreover, 16% died; averaged age was 56 years (range, 40–65); mean time of surgery was 186 minutes (range, 95–250 minutes); the number of hospitalizations ranged from 1 (90.6%) to 8 (0.3%). Contamination among these cases was rated as follows: 2.7% contaminated, 23.5% potentially contaminated, 72.3% clean. The SSI rate reached 4%. The prediction process in AUCs ranged from 0.7 to 0.994. In plastic surgery, from 3,693 records, 1,099 were intact, with only 1 case of SSI and no deaths. The average age for plastic surgery was 41 years (range, 16–91); the average time of surgery was 218.5 minutes (range, 19–580 minutes); the number of hospitalizations ranged from 1 (77.4%) to 6 times (0.001%). Contamination among these cases was rated as follows: 27.90% potential contamination, 1.67% contaminated, and 0.84% infected. The prediction process ranged in AUCs from 0.2 to 0.4. Conclusions: We identified a high noise index in both surgeries due to subjectivity at the time of data collection. The profiles of each surgery in the statistical analyses were different, which was reflected in the analyzed structures. The MLP for craniotomy surgery demonstrated relevant predictive power and can guide intelligent monitoring software (available in www.sacihweb.com). However, for plastic surgeries, MLPs need more SSI samples to optimize outcomes. To optimize data collection and to enable other hospitals to use the SSI prediction tool, a mobile application was developed.
Background: Delayed or in vitro inactive empiric antibiotic therapy may be detrimental to survival in patients with bloodstream infections (BSIs). Understanding the landscape of delayed or discordant empiric antibiotic therapy (DDEAT) across different patient, pathogen, and hospital types, as well as by their baseline resistance milieu, may enable providers, antimicrobial stewardship programs, and policy makers to optimize empiric prescribing. Methods: Inpatients with clinically suspected serious infection (based on sampling of blood cultures and receiving systemic antibiotic therapy on the same or next day) found to have BSI were identified in the Cerner Healthfacts EHR database. Patients were considered to have received DDEAT when, on culture sampling day, they received either no antibiotic(s) or none that displayed in vitro activity against the pathogenic bloodstream isolate. Antibiotic-resistant phenotypes were defined by in vitro resistance to taxon-specific prototype antibiotics (eg, methicillin/oxacillin resistance in S. aureus) and were used to estimate baseline resistance prevalence encountered by the hospital. The probability of DDEAT was examined by bacterial taxon, by time of BSI onset, and by presence versus absence of antibiotic-resistance phenotypes, sepsis or septic shock, hospital type, and baseline resistance. Results: Of 26,036 assessable patients with a BSI at 131 US hospitals between 2005 and 2014, 14,658 (56%) had sepsis, 3,623 (14%) had septic shock, 5,084 (20%) had antibiotic-resistant phenotypes, and 8,593 (33%) received DDEAT. Also, 4,428 (52%) recipients of DDEAT received no antibiotics on culture sampling day, whereas the remaining 4,165 (48%) received in vitro discordant therapy. DDEAT occurred most often in S. maltophilia (87%) and E. faecium (80%) BSIs; however, 75% of DDEAT cases and 76% of deaths among recipients of DDEAT collectively occurred among patients with S. aureus and Enterobacteriales BSIs. For every 8 bacteremic patients presenting with septic shock, 1 patient did not receive any antibiotics on culture day (Fig. 1A). Patients with BSIs of hospital (vs community) onset were twice as likely to receive no antibiotics on culture day, whereas those with bloodstream pathogens displaying antibiotic-resistant (vs susceptible) phenotypes were 3 times as likely to receive in vitro discordant therapy (Fig. 1B). The median proportion of DDEAT ranged between 25% (14, 37%) in eight <300-bed teaching hospitals in the lowest baseline resistance quartile and 40% (31, 50%) at five ≥300-bed teaching hospitals in the third baseline resistance quartile (Fig. 2). Conclusions: Delayed or in vitro discordant empiric antibiotic therapy is common among patients with BSI in US hospitals regardless of hospital size, teaching status, or local resistance patterns. Prompt empiric antibiotic therapy in septic shock and hospital-onset BSI needs more support. Reliable detection of S. aureus and Enterobacteriales bloodstream pathogens and their resistance patterns earlier with rapid point-of-care diagnostics may mitigate the population-level impact of DDEAT in BSI.
Funding: This study was funded in part by the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Cancer Institute (NCI contract no. HHSN261200800001E) and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
When women gained the national right to vote 100 years ago, remarkable possibilities for their voice and presence in politics opened. However, despite gains in women’s representation, numerous gaps continue to exist in which adult women engage less in politics than men. In identifying and explaining adult gender gaps, little attention has been given to whether gaps emerge among children. This is a pressing issue because children’s perceptions are likely to influence their participation as adults. This article explores whether and how girls and boys differently view politics and their role in it. We report survey data from more than 1,600 children ages 6 to 12 to explore basic gender gaps in political interest and ambition. We argue that these results may reveal the roots of a larger problem: 100 years after women gained suffrage, girls still express less interest and enthusiasm than boys for political life and political office.
White matter development during adolescents is crucial for a mature integration of neural networks in the brain. Autism spectrum condition (ASC), characterized by social and communication difficulties and rigid behaviour may interact with white matter development observed during adolescence. Changes in white matter development may link autistic symptoms to its genetic underpinnings and explain a 10-fold increase in susceptibility to ASC among siblings of individuals with ASC.
We used diffusion tensor imaging to study an association between age and white matter integrity measures, fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD), in adolescents with ASC, their siblings and age-matched healthy controls. Diffusion-weighted data were acquired with 64-direction protocol with 3mm slices and TR of 6600ms and tract-based spatial statistics analysis was performed.
The control subjects showed robust signs of increase in white matter integrity correlated with age. In contrast, individuals with ASC showed significantly lower negative correlation between MD and age in a broad area centred in the right superior longitudinal fasciculus (rSLF). When the three eigenvalues constituting a tensor ellipsoid were considered separately, siblings of individuals with ASC showed a diminished negative correlation between the second eigenvalue and age also centred in the rSLF.
Adolescents with ASC and their siblings experience alterations in white matter development in comparison to age-matched healthy controls, which are similar in direction yet different in scale for the two affected groups. The alterations are observed in the area associated with flexibility of behaviour and may explain both symptoms of ASC and increased susceptibility to ASC.
Research exploring the longitudinal course of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms has documented four modal trajectories (low, remitting, high, and delayed), with proportions varying across studies. Heterogeneity could be due to differences in trauma types and patient demographic characteristics.
This analysis pooled data from six longitudinal studies of adult survivors of civilian-related injuries admitted to general hospital emergency departments (EDs) in six countries (pooled N = 3083). Each study included at least three assessments of the clinician-administered PTSD scale in the first post-trauma year. Latent class growth analysis determined the proportion of participants exhibiting various PTSD symptom trajectories within and across the datasets. Multinomial logistic regression analyses examined demographic characteristics, type of event leading to the injury, and trauma history as predictors of trajectories differentiated by their initial severity and course.
Five trajectories were found across the datasets: Low (64.5%), Remitting (16.9%), Moderate (6.7%), High (6.5%), and Delayed (5.5%). Female gender, non-white race, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries were associated with increased risk for initial PTSD reactions. Female gender and assaultive injuries were associated with risk for membership in the Delayed (v. Low) trajectory, and lower education, prior interpersonal trauma, and assaultive injuries with risk for membership in the High (v. Remitting) trajectory.
The results suggest that over 30% of civilian-related injury survivors admitted to EDs experience moderate-to-high levels of PTSD symptoms within the first post-trauma year, with those reporting assaultive violence at increased risk of both immediate and longer-term symptoms.
While early gendered messages mold children's expectations about the world, we know relatively little about the depictions of women in politics and exposure to gender stereotypes in elementary social studies curricula. In this article, we examine the coverage of political leaders in the children's magazine TIME for Kids, a source commonly found in elementary school classrooms. Coding all political content from this source over six years, we evaluate the presence of women political leaders and rate whether the leaders are described as possessing gender-stereotypic traits. Our results show that although TIME for Kids covers women leaders in greater proportion than their overall representation in politics, the content of the coverage contains gendered messages that portray politics as a stereotypically masculine field. We show that gendered traits are applied differently to men and to women in politics: feminine and communal traits are more likely to be applied to women leaders, while men and women are equally described as having masculine and agentic traits. Portrayals of women political leaders in stereotype-congruent ways is problematic because early messages influence children's views of gender roles.
Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
Inappropriate use of antibiotics is contributing to a serious antimicrobial resistance problem in Asian hospitals. Despite resource constraints in the region, all Asian hospitals should implement antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programs to optimize antibiotic treatment, improve patient outcomes, and minimize antimicrobial resistance. This document describes a consensus statement from a panel of regional experts to help multidisciplinary AMS teams design programs that suit the needs and resources of their hospitals. In general, AMS teams must decide on appropriate interventions (eg, prospective audit and/or formulary restriction) for their hospital, focusing on the most misused antibiotics and problematic multidrug-resistant organisms. This focus is likely to include carbapenem use with the goal to reduce carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria. Rather than initially trying to introduce a comprehensive, hospital-wide AMS program, it would be practical to begin by pilot testing a simple program based on 1 achievable core intervention for the hospital. AMS team members must work together to determine the most suitable AMS interventions to implement in their hospitals and how best to put them into practice. Continuous monitoring and feedback of outcomes to the AMS teams, hospital administration, and prescribers will enhance sustainability of the AMS programs.
Due to the lack of basic information on water required by maize (Zea mays L.) in Brazil, the large amount of water applied usually exceeds crop requirements, wasting water and energy. In this study, we measured crop evapotranspiration (ETc) as evaporative heat flux from a centre pivot-irrigated maize plantation in Southern Brazil during winter and summer seasons, using the Bowen ratio method to evaluate how the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling affects crop water needs and irrigation management. Irrigation requirements were determined by comparing ETc with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), derived from the Penman–Monteith equation and expressed as the ETc/ETo (Kc) ratio. In this study, the average Kc values obtained were 1.31 and 0.90 for the winter and summer, respectively. Using aerodynamic and canopy resistance measurements, the decoupling factor (Ω) was computed. Ω values tending to zero (0.09 and 0.20 for winter and summer, respectively) showed that strong coupling of maize plants to the atmosphere and sensitivity to high air temperatures, vapour pressure deficits and wind speed caused variations in Kc in relation to ETo ranges. During the experimental period, the Kc value ranged from 0.92 when the ETo exceeded 4 mm d−1 to 1.64 when the ETo was less than 2 mm d−1.
Nighttime eating is often associated with a negative impact on weight management and cardiometabolic health. However, data from recent acute metabolic studies have implicated a benefit of ingesting a bedtime snack for weight management. The present study compared the impact of ingesting a milk snack containing either 10 (BS10) or 30 g (BS30) protein with a non-energetic placebo (BS0) 30 min before bedtime on next morning metabolism, appetite and energy intake in mildly overweight males (age: 24·3 (sem 0·8) years; BMI: 27·4 (sem 1·1) kg/m2). Next morning measurements of RMR, appetite and energy intake were measured using indirect calorimetry, visual analogue scales and an ad libitum breakfast, respectively. Bedtime milk ingestion did not alter next morning RMR (BS0: 7822 (sem 276) kJ/d, BS10: 7482 (sem 262) kJ/d, BS30: 7851 (sem 261) kJ/d, P=0·19) or substrate utilisation as measured by RER (P=0·64). Bedtime milk ingestion reduced hunger (P=0·01) and increased fullness (P=0·04) during the evening immediately after snack ingestion, but elicited no effect the next morning. Next morning breakfast (BS0: 2187 (sem 365) kJ, BS10: 2070 (sem 336) kJ, BS30: 2582 (sem 384) kJ, P=0·21) and 24 h post-trial (P=0·95) energy intake was similar between conditions. To conclude, in mildly overweight adults, compared with a non-energetic placebo, a bedtime milk snack containing 10 or 30 g of protein does not confer changes in next morning whole-body metabolism and appetite that may favour weight management.
Neural mass models are ubiquitous in large-scale brain modelling. At the node level, they are written in terms of a set of ordinary differential equations with a non-linearity that is typically a sigmoidal shape. Using structural data from brain atlases, they may be connected into a network to investigate the emergence of functional dynamic states, such as synchrony. With the simple restriction of the classic sigmoidal non-linearity to a piecewise linear caricature, we show that the famous Wilson–Cowan neural mass model can be explicitly analysed at both the node and network level. The construction of periodic orbits at the node level is achieved by patching together matrix exponential solutions, and stability is determined using Floquet theory. For networks with interactions described by circulant matrices, we show that the stability of the synchronous state can be determined in terms of a low-dimensional Floquet problem parameterised by the eigenvalues of the interaction matrix. Moreover, this network Floquet problem is readily solved using linear algebra to predict the onset of spatio-temporal network patterns arising from a synchronous instability. We further consider the case of a discontinuous choice for the node non-linearity, namely the replacement of the sigmoid by a Heaviside non-linearity. This gives rise to a continuous-time switching network. At the node level, this allows for the existence of unstable sliding periodic orbits, which we explicitly construct. The stability of a periodic orbit is now treated with a modification of Floquet theory to treat the evolution of small perturbations through switching manifolds via the use of saltation matrices. At the network level, the stability analysis of the synchronous state is considerably more challenging. Here, we report on the use of ideas originally developed for the study of Glass networks to treat the stability of periodic network states in neural mass models with discontinuous interactions.
The aims of this study were to replicate previously published experiments and to modify the protocol to detect the effects of chronic antidepressant treatment in mice.
Male Swiss mice (n=6–8/group) housed in reversed light/dark cycle were randomly assigned into receive vehicle (10% sucrose), sub-effective doses (1 and 3 mg/kg) or effective doses (10 and 30 mg/kg) of bupropion, desipramine, and fluoxetine and a candidate antidepressant, sodium butyrate (1–30 mg/kg) per gavage (p.o.) 1 h before the forced swim test (FST). Treatments continued daily for 7 and 14 days during retests 1 and 2, respectively. In an additional experiment, mice received fluoxetine (20 mg/kg) or vehicle (10% sucrose or 0.9% saline) p.o. or i.p. before the FST. Mice housed in reversed or standard light/dark cycles received fluoxetine (20 mg/kg) prior FST. Video recordings of behavioural testing were used for blind assessment of the outcomes.
According to the expected, doses of antidepressants considered sub-effective failed to affect the immobility time of mice in the FST. Surprisingly, acute and chronic treatment with the high doses of bupropion, desipramine, and fluoxetine or sodium butyrate also failed to reduce the immobility time of mice in the FST. Fluoxetine 20 mg/kg was also ineffective in the FST when injected i.p. or in mice housed in normal light/dark cycle.
Data suggest the lack of efficacy of orally administered bupropion, desipramine, fluoxetine in the FST in Swiss mice. High variability, due to high and low immobility mice, may explain the limited effects of the treatments.
Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) has been used in healthcare and medical research for the past two decades. In particular, the use of fNIRS in academic and clinical psychiatry has increased rapidly owing to its advantages over other neuroimaging modalities. fNIRS is a tool that can potentially supplement clinical interviews and mental state examinations to establish a psychiatric diagnosis and monitor treatment progress. This article provides a review of the theoretical background of fNIRS, key principles of its applications in psychiatry and its limitations, and shares a vision of its future applicability in psychiatric research and clinical practice.
• Understand the theoretical background, mechanism of action and clinical applications of fNIRS and compare it to other neuroimaging modalities
• Understand the use of fNIRS in academic and clinical psychiatry through current research findings
• Be able to evaluate the future potential of fNIRS and formulate new ideas for using fNIRS in academic and clinical psychiatry
Beyond the headline findings, five additional themes emerged from our research. First, Chinese governance reforms must be understood on their own terms and in the context of the Chinese policymaking process. Second, Chinese reforms were only partially successful. Many were not fully implemented or failed to achieve the full extent of the outcomes envisioned for them. Third, there is no single Chinese model; approaches to governance varied widely over time and across Chinese provinces. Fourth, reforms were most successful when accompanied by other reform initiatives. Fifth, Chinese governance reforms were intentionally not embedded in permanent and self-reinforcing institutions. After reviewing these themes, we reflect on the implications of our research for the future of the Chinese regime. Our analysis draws from the burgeoning literatures on authoritarian institutions, regime transition, and democratization. We offer the provocative perspective that these reforms may pave the way for successful democratization in two respects. First, the legacy of a high-quality bureaucracy and strong governance has been shown to influence the success of democratic transitions. Second, enhanced legitimacy may enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), like other single-party regime, to concede from a position of strength – allowing multiparty competition because it believes it can win in a free and fair contest.
In this chapter, we explore the core theoretical hypothesis that transparency initiatives introduced in China over the past decade, including Open Governance Information (OGI) regulations, have led to reductions in macro-corruption among subnational officials. To test this theory, we take advantage of archived websites at China’s National Library and Internet Archive – recording the type, scale, and scope of information about government structure, processes, and outputs listed on each web page. Our dependent variable, macro-corruption, is operationalized by the amount of misused funds discovered by the China National Auditing Office as a share of provincial expenditures. We find evidence that increases in information about government power structure and decision-making processes are strongly associated with reductions in the misuse of public funds.