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Environmental information from place-names has largely been overlooked by geoarchaeologists and fluvial geomorphologists in analyses of the depositional histories of rivers and floodplains. Here, new flood chronologies for the rivers Teme, Severn, and Wye are presented, modelled from stable river sections excavated at Broadwas, Buildwas, and Rotherwas. These are connected by the Old English term *wæsse, interpreted as ‘land by a meandering river which floods and drains quickly’. The results reveal that, in all three places, flooding during the early medieval period occurred more frequently between AD 350–700 than between AD 700–1100, but that over time each river's flooding regime became more complex including high magnitude single events. In the sampled locations, the fluvial dynamics of localized flood events had much in common, and almost certainly differed in nature from other sections of their rivers, refining our understanding of the precise nature of flooding which their names sought to communicate. This study shows how the toponymic record can be helpful in the long-term reconstruction of historic river activity and for our understanding of past human perceptions of riverine environments.
We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis to determine the comparative efficacy of antibiotics used to control bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in beef cattle on feedlots. The information sources for the review were: MEDLINE®, MEDLINE In-Process and MEDLINE® Daily, AGRICOLA, Epub Ahead of Print, Cambridge Agricultural and Biological Index, Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Science, the Proceedings of the American Association of Bovine Practitioners, World Buiatrics Conference, and the United States Food and Drug Administration Freedom of Information New Animal Drug Applications summaries. The eligible population was weaned beef cattle raised in intensive systems. The interventions of interest were injectable antibiotics used at the time the cattle arrived at the feedlot. The outcome of interest was the diagnosis of BRD within 45 days of arrival at the feedlot. The network meta-analysis included data from 46 studies and 167 study arms identified in the review. The results suggest that macrolides are the most effective antibiotics for the reduction of BRD incidence. Injectable oxytetracycline effectively controlled BRD compared with no antibiotics; however, it was less effective than macrolide treatment. Because oxytetracycline is already commonly used to prevent, control, and treat BRD in groups of feedlot cattle, the use of injectable oxytetracycline for BRD control might have advantages from an antibiotic stewardship perspective.
Vaccination against putative causal organisms is a frequently used and preferred approach to controlling bovine respiratory disease complex (BRD) because it reduces the need for antibiotic use. Because approximately 90% of feedlots use and 90% of beef cattle receive vaccines in the USA, information about their comparative efficacy would be useful for selecting a vaccine. We conducted a systematic review and network meta-analysis of studies assessing the comparative efficacy of vaccines to control BRD when administered to beef cattle at or near their arrival at the feedlot. We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, MEDLINE Daily Epub Ahead of Print, AGRICOLA, Cambridge Agricultural and Biological Index, Science Citation Index, and Conference Proceedings Citation Index – Science and hand-searched the conference proceedings of the American Association of Bovine Practitioners and World Buiatrics Congress. We found 53 studies that reported BRD morbidity within 45 days of feedlot arrival. The largest connected network of studies, which involved 17 vaccine protocols from 14 studies, was included in the meta-analysis. Consistent with previous reviews, we found little compelling evidence that vaccines used at or near arrival at the feedlot reduce the incidence of BRD diagnosis.
In the 1990s criteria were developed to detect individuals at high and imminent risk of developing a psychotic disorder. These are known as the at risk mental state, ultra high risk or clinical high risk criteria. Individuals meeting these criteria are symptomatic and help-seeking. Services for such individuals are now found worldwide. Recently Psychological Medicine published two articles that criticise these services and suggest that they should be dismantled or restructured. One paper also provides recommendations on how ARMS services should be operate.
In this paper we draw on the existing literature in the field and present the perspective of some ARMS clinicians and researchers.
Many of the critics' arguments are refuted. Most of the recommendations included in the Moritz et al. paper are already occurring.
ARMS services provide management of current problems, treatment to reduce risk of onset of psychotic disorder and monitoring of mental state, including attenuated psychotic symptoms. These symptoms are associated with a range of poor outcomes. It is important to assess them and track their trajectory over time. A new approach to detection of ARMS individuals can be considered that harnesses broad youth mental health services, such as headspace in Australia, Jigsaw in Ireland and ACCESS Open Minds in Canada. Attention should also be paid to the physical health of ARMS individuals. Far from needing to be dismantled we feel that the ARMS approach has much to offer to improve the health of young people.
Despite knowing for many decades that depressive psychopathology is common in first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorders (FES), there is limited knowledge regarding the extent and nature of such psychopathology (degree of comorbidity, caseness, severity) and its demographic, clinical, functional and treatment correlates. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of depressive disorder and caseness, and the pooled mean severity of depressive symptoms, as well as the demographic, illness, functional and treatment correlates of depressive psychopathology in FES.
This systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression was prospectively registered (CRD42018084856) and conducted in accordance with PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines.
Forty studies comprising 4041 participants were included. The pooled prevalence of depressive disorder and caseness was 26.0% (seven samples, N = 855, 95% CI 22.1–30.3) and 43.9% (11 samples, N = 1312, 95% CI 30.3–58.4), respectively. The pooled mean percentage of maximum depressive symptom severity was 25.1 (38 samples, N = 3180, 95% CI 21.49–28.68). Correlates of depressive psychopathology were also found.
At least one-quarter of individuals with FES will experience, and therefore require treatment for, a full-threshold depressive disorder. Nearly half will experience levels of depressive symptoms that are severe enough to warrant diagnostic investigation and therefore clinical intervention – regardless of whether they actually fulfil diagnostic criteria for a depressive disorder. Depressive psychopathology is prominent in FES, manifesting not only as superimposed comorbidity, but also as an inextricable symptom domain.
Unlike for many other respiratory infections, the seasonality of pertussis is not well understood. While evidence of seasonal fluctuations in pertussis incidence has been noted in some countries, there have been conflicting findings including in the context of Australia. We investigated this issue by analysing the seasonality of pertussis notifications in Australia using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2016. Data were made available for all states and territories in Australia except for the Australian Capital Territory and were stratified into age groups. Using a time-series decomposition approach, we formulated a generalised additive model where seasonality is expressed using cosinor terms to estimate the amplitude and peak timing of pertussis notifications in Australia. We also compared these characteristics across different jurisdictions and age groups. We found evidence that pertussis notifications exhibit seasonality, with peaks observed during the spring and summer months (November–January) in Australia and across different states and territories. During peak months, notifications are expected to increase by about 15% compared with the yearly average. Peak notifications for children <5 years occurred 1–2 months later than the general population, which provides support to the theory that older household members remain an important source of pertussis infection for younger children. In addition, our results provide a more comprehensive spatial picture of seasonality in Australia, a feature lacking in previous studies. Finally, our findings suggest that seasonal forcing may be useful to consider in future population transmission models of pertussis.
Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) results in substantial numbers of hospitalisations and deaths in older adults. There are known lifestyle and medical risk factors for pneumococcal disease but the magnitude of the additional risk is not well quantified in Australia. We used a large population-based prospective cohort study of older adults in the state of New South Wales (45 and Up Study) linked to cause-specific hospitalisations, disease notifications and death registrations from 2006 to 2015. We estimated the age-specific incidence of CAP hospitalisation (ICD-10 J12-18), invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notification and presumptive non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisation (J13 + J18.1, excluding IPD), comparing those with at least one risk factor to those with no risk factors. The hospitalised case-fatality rate (CFR) included deaths in a 30-day window after hospitalisation. Among 266 951 participants followed for 1 850 000 person-years there were 8747 first hospitalisations for CAP, 157 IPD notifications and 305 non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisations. In persons 65–84 years, 54.7% had at least one identified risk factor, increasing to 57.0% in those ⩾85 years. The incidence of CAP hospitalisation in those ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor was twofold higher than in those without risk factors, 1091/100 000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1060–1122) compared with 522/100 000 (95% CI 501–545) and IPD in equivalent groups was almost threefold higher (18.40/100 000 (95% CI 14.61–22.87) vs. 6.82/100 000 (95% CI 4.56–9.79)). The CFR increased with age but there were limited difference by risk status, except in those aged 45 to 64 years. Adults ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor have much higher rates of CAP and IPD suggesting that additional risk factor-based vaccination strategies may be cost-effective.
During the summer of 2016, the Hawaii Department of Health responded to the second-largest domestic foodborne hepatitis A virus (HAV) outbreak in the post-vaccine era. The epidemiological investigation included case finding and investigation, sequencing of RNA positive clinical specimens, product trace-back and virologic testing and sequencing of HAV RNA from the product. Additionally, an online survey open to all Hawaii residents was conducted to estimate baseline commercial food consumption. We identified 292 confirmed HAV cases, of whom 11 (4%) were possible secondary cases. Seventy-four (25%) were hospitalised and there were two deaths. Among all cases, 94% reported eating at Oahu or Kauai Island branches of Restaurant Chain A, with 86% of those cases reporting raw scallop consumption. In contrast, a food consumption survey conducted during the outbreak indicated 25% of Oahu residents patronised Restaurant Chain A in the 7 weeks before the survey. Product trace-back revealed a single distributor that supplied scallops imported from the Philippines to Restaurant Chain A. Recovery, amplification and sequence comparison of HAV recovered from scallops revealed viral sequences matching those from case-patients. Removal of product from implicated restaurants and vaccination of those potentially exposed led to the cessation of the outbreak. This outbreak further highlights the need for improved imported food safety.
The role that vitamin D plays in pulmonary function remains uncertain. Epidemiological studies reported mixed findings for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)–pulmonary function association. We conducted the largest cross-sectional meta-analysis of the 25(OH)D–pulmonary function association to date, based on nine European ancestry (EA) cohorts (n 22 838) and five African ancestry (AA) cohorts (n 4290) in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium. Data were analysed using linear models by cohort and ancestry. Effect modification by smoking status (current/former/never) was tested. Results were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Mean serum 25(OH)D was 68 (sd 29) nmol/l for EA and 49 (sd 21) nmol/l for AA. For each 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, forced expiratory volume in the 1st second (FEV1) was higher by 1·1 ml in EA (95 % CI 0·9, 1·3; P<0·0001) and 1·8 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·5; P<0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·06), and forced vital capacity (FVC) was higher by 1·3 ml in EA (95 % CI 1·0, 1·6; P<0·0001) and 1·5 ml (95 % CI 0·8, 2·3; P=0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·56). Among EA, the 25(OH)D–FVC association was stronger in smokers: per 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, FVC was higher by 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·3) for current smokers and 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·2, 2·1) for former smokers, compared with 0·8 ml (95 % CI 0·4, 1·2) for never smokers. In summary, the 25(OH)D associations with FEV1 and FVC were positive in both ancestries. In EA, a stronger association was observed for smokers compared with never smokers, which supports the importance of vitamin D in vulnerable populations.
Objectives: Although subjective cognitive complaints (SCC) are an integral component of the diagnostic criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), previous findings indicate they may not accurately reflect cognitive ability. Within the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we investigated longitudinal change in the discrepancy between self- and informant-reported SCC across empirically derived subtypes of MCI and normal control (NC) participants. Methods: Data were obtained for 353 MCI participants and 122 “robust” NC participants. Participants were classified into three subtypes at baseline via cluster analysis: amnestic MCI, mixed MCI, and cluster-derived normal (CDN), a presumptive false-positive group who performed within normal limits on neuropsychological testing. SCC at baseline and two annual follow-up visits were assessed via the Everyday Cognition Questionnaire (ECog), and discrepancy scores between self- and informant-report were calculated. Analysis of change was conducted using analysis of covariance. Results: The amnestic and mixed MCI subtypes demonstrated increasing ECog discrepancy scores over time. This was driven by an increase in informant-reported SCC, which corresponded to participants’ objective cognitive decline, despite stable self-reported SCC. Increasing unawareness was associated with cerebrospinal fluid Alzheimer’s disease biomarker positivity and progression to Alzheimer’s disease. In contrast, CDN and NC groups over-reported cognitive difficulty and demonstrated normal cognition at all time points. Conclusions: MCI participants’ discrepancy scores indicate progressive underappreciation of their evolving cognitive deficits. Consistent over-reporting in the CDN and NC groups despite normal objective cognition suggests that self-reported SCC do not predict impending cognitive decline. Results demonstrate that self-reported SCC become increasingly misleading as objective cognitive impairment becomes more pronounced. (JINS, 2018, 24, 842–853)
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The study aimed to determine the effects of bilateral frontal active transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) at 2 mA for 12 minute Versus sham stimulation on functional connectivity of the working memory network during an fMRI N-Back task. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Stimulation was delivered over bilateral frontal dorsolateral prefrontal cortex via and MRI-compatible tDCS device during an fMRI working memory task in healthy older adults in a within-subject design. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Active stimulation compared with sham resulted in significant increases in functional connectivity in working memory related brain regions during the N-Back task. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Older adults typically have reduced functional connectivity compared with young adults. Our findings demonstrate that a single session of tDCS can increase functional connectivity of the working memory network in older adults. Based on this mechanism of effect, tDCS may serve as an adjunctive method for interventions aiming to enhance cognitive processes in older adults.
Following the B777 accident at Heathrow in 2008, the certification authorities required Boeing, Airbus, and Rolls-Royce to conduct icing analysis and tests of their Rolls-Royce Trent engined aircraft fuel systems. The experience and the test data gained from these activities were distilled and released by Airbus to the EASA ICAR project for research and analysis. This paper provided an overview of the Airbus ice accretion and release tests. Brief narratives on the test rigs, the test procedure and methodology were given and key findings from the ice release investigations were presented. The accreted ice thickness was non-uniform; however, it is found typically c.
thick. Analysis of the accreted ice collected from the rig tests showed the ice was very porous. The porosity is very much dependant on how the water was introduced and mixed in the icing test rigs. The standard Airbus method produced accreted ice of higher porosity compared to that produced by the injection method. The porosity of the accreted ice from Airbus icing investigations was found to be c. 0.90. The relationship of permeability with porosity was inferred from published data and models for freshly fallen snow in the atmosphere. Derived permeability
was then applied in the CFD analysis of pipe flow with a porous wall lining to determine the shear stress on the accreted ice. It showed that 25%, 50% and 75% of the accreted ice has interface shear strength of less than
Good education requires student experiences that deliver lessons about practice as well as theory and that encourage students to work for the public good—especially in the operation of democratic institutions (Dewey 1923; Dewy 1938). We report on an evaluation of the pedagogical value of a research project involving 23 colleges and universities across the country. Faculty trained and supervised students who observed polling places in the 2016 General Election. Our findings indicate that this was a valuable learning experience in both the short and long terms. Students found their experiences to be valuable and reported learning generally and specifically related to course material. Postelection, they also felt more knowledgeable about election science topics, voting behavior, and research methods. Students reported interest in participating in similar research in the future, would recommend other students to do so, and expressed interest in more learning and research about the topics central to their experience. Our results suggest that participants appreciated the importance of elections and their study. Collectively, the participating students are engaged and efficacious—essential qualities of citizens in a democracy.
In ewe lambs, acceleration of growth and accumulation of both muscle and fat leads to earlier sexual maturity and better reproductive performance. The next stage in the development of this theme is to test whether these aspects of growth in young ewes affect milk production in their first lactation and the growth of their first progeny. We studied 75 young Merino ewes that had known phenotypic values for depth of eye muscle (EMD) and fat (FAT), and known Australian Sheep Breeding Values for post-weaning weight (PWT) and depths of eye muscle (PEMD) and fat (PFAT). They lambed for the first time at 1 year of age. Their lambs were weighed weekly from birth to weaning at 10 weeks to determine live weight gain and weaning weight. Progeny birth weight was positively associated with live weight gain and weaning weight (P<0.001). The PWT of the mothers was positively associated with birth weight (P<0.01), live weight gain and weaning weight of the progeny (P<0.05); however, these progeny traits were not influenced by EMD, FAT, PEMD, PFAT of the mothers (P>0.05). The PWT of the sire was positively associated with live weight gain (P<0.05) and weaning weight of the progeny (P<0.01). At around day 20 postpartum, we measured milk production and milk composition (fat, protein, lactose, total solids). Milk production was influenced positively by birth type (single or twin; P<0.05) and negatively by birth weight (P<0.05), but not by mother phenotype or genotype, sire genotype of the mother or the sex of the progeny (P>0.05). The concentrations of fat, protein, lactose and total solids in the milk were not affected by the phenotype or genotype of the mothers or of the sires of the mothers, or by the sex of the progeny (P>0.05). We conclude that selection of young Merino ewes for better growth, and more rapid accumulation of muscle and fat, will lead to progeny that are heavier at birth, grow faster and are heavier at weaning. Moreover, milk production and composition do not seem to be affected by the genetic merit of the mother for post-weaning live weight or PEMD or PFAT. Therefore, Merino ewes can lamb at 1 year of age without affecting the production objectives of the Merino sheep industry.
The solar magnesium II core-to-wing ratio has been a well-studied proxy for chromospheric activity since 1978. Daily measurements at high spectral (0.1 nm) resolution began with the launch of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) in 2003. The next generation of measurements from the Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16) will add high time cadence (every 30 seconds) to the observational Mg II irradiance record. We present a comparison of the two measurements during the period of overlap.
Ultraviolet (UV) Solar spectral Irradiance (SSI) has been measured from orbit on a regular basis since the beginning of the space age. These observations span four Solar Cycles, and they are crucial for our understanding of the Sun-Earth connection and space weather. SSI at these wavelengths are the main drivers for the upper atmosphere including the production and destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. The instruments that measure UV SSI not only require good preflight calibration, but also need a robust method to maintain that calibration on orbit. We will give an overview of the catalog of current and former UV SSI measurements along with the calibration philosophy of each instrument and an estimation of the uncertainties in the published irradiances.
In dimensional understanding of psychosis, auditory verbal hallucinations
(AVH) are unitary phenomena present on a continuum from non-clinical
voice hearing to severe mental illness. There is mixed evidence for this
approach and a relative absence of research into subjective experience of
AVH in early psychosis.
To conduct primary research into the nature of subjective experience of
AVH in first-episode psychosis.
A phenomenological study using diary and photo-elicitation qualitative
techniques investigating the subjective experience of AVH in 25 young
people with first-episode psychosis.
AVH are characterised by: (a) entity, as though from a living being with
complex social interchange; and (b) control, exerting authority with
ability to influence. AVH are also received with passivity, often
accompanied by sensation in other modalities.
A modern detailed phenomenological investigation, without presupposition,
gives results that echo known descriptive psychopathology. However, novel
findings also emerge that may be features of AVH in psychosis not
currently captured with standardised measures.
A legionellosis outbreak at an industrial site was investigated to identify and control the source. Cases were identified from disease notifications, workplace illness records, and from clinicians. Cases were interviewed for symptoms and risk factors and tested for legionellosis. Implicated environmental sources were sampled and tested for legionella. We identified six cases with Legionnaires’ disease and seven with Pontiac fever; all had been exposed to aerosols from the cooling towers on the site. Nine cases had evidence of infection with either Legionella pneumophila serogroup (sg) 1 or Legionella longbeachae sg1; these organisms were also isolated from the cooling towers. There was 100% DNA sequence homology between cooling tower and clinical isolates of L. pneumophila sg1 using sequence-based typing analysis; no clinical L. longbeachae isolates were available to compare with environmental isolates. Routine monitoring of the towers prior to the outbreak failed to detect any legionella. Data from this outbreak indicate that L. pneumophila sg1 transmission occurred from the cooling towers; in addition, L. longbeachae transmission was suggested but remains unproven. L. longbeachae detection in cooling towers has not been previously reported in association with legionellosis outbreaks. Waterborne transmission should not be discounted in investigations for the source of L. longbeachae infection.
In a time of major medical education transformation, emergency medicine (EM) needs to nurture education scholars who will influence EM education practice. However, the essential ingredients to ensure a career with impact in EM education are not clear.
To describe how to prepare EM educators for a high-impact career.
The Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians (CAEP) Academic Section commissioned an “Education Impact” working group (IWG) to guide the creation of consensus recommendations from the EM community. EM educators from across Canada were initially recruited from the networks of the IWG members, and additional educators were recruited via snowball sampling. “High impact educators” were nominated by this network. The high impact educators were then interviewed using a structured question guide. These interviews were transcribed and coded for themes using qualitative methods. The process continued until no new themes were identified. Proposed themes and recommendations were presented to the EM community at the CAEP 2016 Academic Symposium. Feedback was then incorporated into a final set of recommendations.
Fifty-five (71%) of 77 of identified Canadian EM educators participated, and 170 names of high impact educators were submitted and ranked by frequency. The IWG achieved sufficiency of themes after nine interviews. Five recommendations were made: 1) EM educators can pursue a high impact career by leveraging either traditional or innovative career pathways; 2) EM educators starting their education careers should have multiple senior mentors; 3) Early-career EM educators should immerse themselves in their area of interest and cultivate a community of practice, not limited to EM; 4) Every academic EM department and EM teaching site should have access to an EM educator with protected time and recognition for their EM education scholarship; and 5) Educators at all stages should continuously compile an impact portfolio.
We describe a unique set of recommendations to develop educators who will influence EM, derived from a consensus from the EM community. EM leaders, educators, and aspiring educational scholars should consider how to implement this guide towards enhancing our specialty’s educational mission.