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Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:
∙Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).
∙Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).
∙Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).
Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:
∙While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.
∙There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.
∙No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)
∙No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.
∙Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.
Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.
Introduction: Resuscitation is a dynamic, complex and time-sensitive field which encompasses management of both critically-ill patients as well as large multidisciplinary teams. Expertise in this area has not been adequately defined, and to date, no research has directly examined the decision-making and cognitive processes involved. The evolving paradigm of competency-based medical education (CBME) makes better defining expertise in this field of critical importance to aid in the development of both educational and assessment methods. The technique of cognitive task analysis (CTA) has been used in a variety of fields to explicate the cognitive underpinnings of experts. Experts, however, often have limited insight and incomplete recall of their decision-making processes. We hypothesized that the use of eye-tracking, which provides the combination of first-person video as well as an overlying gaze indicator, could be used to enhance CTA to better understand the defining characteristics of experts in resuscitation. Methods: Over an 18-month period a sample of 11 traumatic resuscitations were obtained, each led by one of four pre-selected expert physicians outfitted with the Tobii Pro Eye-Tracking Glasses. After each resuscitation, the participant was debriefed using a cued-recall, think-aloud protocol while watching his or her corresponding eye-tracking video. A subsequent qualitative analysis of the resulting video and debrief transcript was performed using an ethnographic approach to establish emerging themes and behaviours of the expert physicians. Results: The expert participants demonstrated specific, common patterns in their cognitive processes. In particular, participants exhibited similar anticipatory and visual behaviours, dynamic communication strategies and the ability to distinguish between task-relevant and task-redundant information. All participants reported that this technique uncovered otherwise subconscious aspects of their cognition. Conclusion: The novel combination of eye-tracking technology to supplement the CTA of expert resuscitationists enriched our understanding of expertise in this field and yielded specific findings that can be applied to better develop and assess resuscitation skills.
Introduction: Crisis decision-making is an important responsibility of the resuscitation team leader but a difficult process to study. The purpose of this study was to evaluate visual and behavioural differences between team leaders with different objective performance scores using gaze-tracking technology. Methods: Twenty-eight emergency medicine residents in different stages of training completed four simulated resuscitation scenarios. Participants wore gaze-tracking glasses during each station. An outside expert blinded to participant training level assessed performances using a validated assessment tool for simulation scenarios. Several visual endpoints were measured, including time, frequency, order, and latency to observation of task-relevant and task-redundant items. Non-visual endpoints included behaviours such as summarizing, verbalizing concerns, and calling for definitive treatments, among others. Results: Preliminary findings suggest significant differences between high and low performers. High performers check vitals signs faster, and look at patients and vital signs more often than low performers. Low-performing leaders display a more fixed gaze when starting a scenario. Lastly, high performers summarize, verbalize concerns, predict and prepare for future steps, and call for definitive treatment more often than low performers. Conclusion: There are significant differences between high and low-performing resuscitation team leaders in terms of their visual and behavioural patterns. These differences identify potential focus points for competency evaluations, and may direct educational interventions that could facilitate more efficient development of expertise. The potential to study crisis decision-making behaviours and performances using the methods and metrics identified, both in simulated and real-world settings, is substantial.
The objective of this research was to explore how spirituality is currently understood and taught in New Zealand Medical Schools.
A mixed methods study was carried out involving interviews (n = 14) and a survey (n = 73). The first stage of the study involved recorded semi-structured interviews of people involved in curriculum development from the Dunedin School of Medicine (n = 14); which then informed a cross-sectional self-reported electronic survey (n = 73).
The results indicate that spirituality is regarded by many involved in medical education in New Zealand as an important part of healthcare that may be taught in medical schools, but also that there is little consensus among this group as to what the topic is about.
Significance of results:
These findings provide a basis for further discussion about including spirituality in medical curricula, and in particular indicate a need to develop a shared understanding of what ‘spirituality’ means and how it can be taught appropriately. As a highly secular country, these New Zealand findings are significant for medical education in other secular Western countries. Addressing spirituality with patients has been shown to positively impact a range of health outcomes, but how spirituality is taught in medical schools is still developing across the globe.
A community outbreak of legionellosis occurred in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria, during July and August 2002. A descriptive study and active case-finding were instigated and all known wet cooling systems and other potential sources were investigated. Genotypic and phenotypic analysis, and amplified fragment length polymorphism of clinical human and environmental isolates confirmed the air-conditioning unit of a council-owned arts and leisure centre to be the source of infection. Subsequent sequence-based typing confirmed this link. One hundred and seventy-nine cases, including seven deaths [case fatality rate (CFR) 3·9%] were attributed to the outbreak. Timely recognition and management of the incident very likely led to the low CFR compared to other outbreaks. The outbreak highlights the responsibility associated with managing an aerosol-producing system, with the potential to expose and infect a large proportion of the local population and the consequent legal ramifications and human cost.
Programmes for the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are by nature extremely complex. A structured approach for making and documenting varied kinds of decisions is required to support programme design and implementation. At each programme stage, the decision-making process must be able to identify and justify key priorities for work, to reduce uncertainties.
To support structured decision-making evidence support logic (ESL) has been developed and applied to varied complex projects, nationally and internationally, in several industries. Evidence support logic involves breaking down a hypothesis that informs a decision into a hierarchical 'decision tree'. Examples of hypotheses are 'the geology associated with site x will provide sufficient disposal capacity', 'container x will contain waste form y for z years' and 'the engineered barrier system will provide the required safety functions'. Independent evaluations of confidence 'for' and 'against' bottom-level hypotheses allow the level of remaining uncertainty (or conflict) to be recognized explicitly, and the overall confidence (and uncertainty) relevant to the overall decision, and key sensitivities, to be represented clearly and succinctly.
Thus ESL can help (1) break down decisions into a manageable and logical structure, assisting clear presentation; (2) identify key uncertainties and sensitivities to inform prioritization; and (3) test whether the outcomes of specific studies have improved confidence.
Terminal complement component deficiency predisposes to meningococcal infection and is inherited in an autosomal co-dominant manner. An Irish family is described, in which 2 of 3 brothers had recurrent meningococcal infection. A novel screening assay was used to investigate for terminal complement deficiency and the 2 affected brothers were found to be completely deficient in the seventh component of complement (C7). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for C7 revealed lower than normal levels in the remaining brother and parents. C7 M/N protein polymorphism allotyping, used to investigate the segregation of the C7 deficiency genes, showed that the apparently complement sufficient brother was heterozygous C7 deficient and a carrier of one of the deficiency genes. Complement screening should be carried out in any individual suffering recurrent meningococcal infection or infection with an uncommon meningococcal serogroup. Identification of complement deficient patients allows the implementation of strategies to prevent recurrent infection.
Amongst a collection of temperature sensitive (TS) mutants of Escherichia coli K-12, some have been found which can grow at the restrictive temperature (42 °C) if the osmotic pressure of the medium is raised by the addition of sodium chloride (1%) or sucrose (12·5%). These mutants are described as temperature sensitive osmotic remedial (TSOR) mutants. At the restrictive temperature they are not osmotically fragile, but do display decreased resistance to inhibitory agents such as deoxycholate, actino-mycin D and acridine orange; they also show release of the periplasmic enzyme ribonuclease. These results indicate a change in the cell's outer permeability barrier. The genes affected in six of the mutants have been located on the E. coli linkage map. The mutations, which occur at loci not previously described, have been named envM–envT to indicate their effect on the cell envelope.
Frontal release signs, a subset of neurological soft signs, are common in schizophrenia.
To explore the relationship between frontal release signs and neuropsychological tests of frontal lobe function in people with schizophrenia, their siblings and healthy controls.
Neuropsychological tests and frontal release signs were measured in a cohort of index cases (n=302), their siblings (n=240) and healthy controls (n=346).
The mean total score of frontal release signs was 1.5 (s.d. = 1.58) in the schizophrenia group, 0.54 (s.d.=0.92) for siblings and 0.42 (s.d.=0.77) for controls. Schizophrenia group scores were greater than healthy control or sibling cohort scores (P < 0.0001), which did not differ. In all three cohorts, right grasp reflex scores positively correlated with number of perseverative errors on the Wisconsin Card Sort Task (P<0.05). In the schizophrenia group, frontal release signs scores showed an inverse correlation with IQ (R = −0.199, P<0.0005).
Our findings of relationships between frontal release signs and cognitive assays of cortical dysfunction and the increased frequency of these signs in people with schizophrenia implicate a cortical origin for these clinical signs and evidence of frontal lobe dysfunction in this disorder.
To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases (∼10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5–80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1–10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).