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Psychotherapies for depression are equally effective on average, but individual responses vary widely. Outcomes can be improved by optimizing treatment selection using multivariate prediction models. A promising approach is the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) that predicts the optimal treatment for a given individual and the magnitude of the advantage. The current study aimed to extend the PAI to long-term depression outcomes after acute-phase psychotherapy.
Data come from a randomized trial comparing cognitive therapy (CT, n = 76) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT, n = 75) for major depressive disorder (MDD). Primary outcome was depression severity, as assessed by the BDI-II, during 17-month follow-up. First, predictors and moderators were selected from 38 pre-treatment variables using a two-step machine learning approach. Second, predictors and moderators were combined into a final model, from which PAI predictions were computed with cross-validation. Long-term PAI predictions were then compared to actual follow-up outcomes and post-treatment PAI predictions.
One predictor (parental alcohol abuse) and two moderators (recent life events; childhood maltreatment) were identified. Individuals assigned to their PAI-indicated treatment had lower follow-up depression severity compared to those assigned to their PAI-non-indicated treatment. This difference was significant in two subsets of the overall sample: those whose PAI score was in the upper 60%, and those whose PAI indicated CT, irrespective of magnitude. Long-term predictions did not overlap substantially with predictions for acute benefit.
If replicated, long-term PAI predictions could enhance precision medicine by selecting the optimal treatment for a given depressed individual over the long term.
Universal depression screening in youth typically focuses on strategies for identifying current distress and impairment. However, these protocols also play a critical role in primary prevention initiatives that depend on correctly estimating future depression risk. Thus, the present study aimed to identify the best screening approach for predicting depression onset in youth.
Two multi-wave longitudinal studies (N = 591, AgeM = 11.74; N = 348, AgeM = 12.56) were used as the ‘test’ and ‘validation’ datasets among youth who did not present with a history of clinical depression. Youth and caregivers completed inventories for depressive symptoms, adversity exposure (including maternal depression), social/academic impairment, cognitive vulnerabilities (rumination, dysfunctional attitudes, and negative cognitive style), and emotional predispositions (negative and positive affect) at baseline. Subsequently, multi-informant diagnostic interviews were completed every 6 months for 2 years.
Self-reported rumination, social/academic impairment, and negative affect best predicted first depression onsets in youth across both samples. Self- and parent-reported depressive symptoms did not consistently predict depression onset after controlling for other predictors. Youth with high scores on the three inventories were approximately twice as likely to experience a future first depressive episode compared to the sample average. Results suggested that one's likelihood of developing depression could be estimated based on subthreshold and threshold risk scores.
Most pediatric depression screening protocols assess current manifestations of depressive symptoms. Screening for prospective first onsets of depressive episodes can be better accomplished via an algorithm incorporating rumination, negative affect, and impairment.
We examined the prevalence and correlates of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection according to cytotoxin-associated gene A (CagA) phenotype, a main virulence antigen, among the ethnically diverse population groups of Jerusalem. A cross-sectional study was undertaken in Arab (N = 959) and Jewish (N = 692) adults, randomly selected from Israel's national population registry in age-sex and population strata. Sera were tested for H. pylori immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Positive samples were tested for virulence IgG antibodies to recombinant CagA protein, by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Multinomial regression models were fitted to examine associations of sociodemographic factors with H. pylori phenotypes. H. pylori IgG antibody sero-prevalence was 83.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 80.0%–85.5%) and 61.4% (95% CI 57.7%–65.0%) among Arabs and Jews, respectively. Among H. pylori positives, the respective CagA IgG antibody sero-positivity was 42.3% (95% CI 38.9%–45.8%) and 32.5% (95% CI 28.2%–37.1%). Among Jews, being born in the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and North Africa, vs. Israel and the Americas, was positively associated with CagA sero-positivity. In both populations, sibship size was positively associated with both CagA positive and negative phenotypes; and education was inversely associated. In conclusion, CagA positive and negative infection had similar correlates, suggesting shared sources of these two H. pylori phenotypes.
The search for life in the Universe is a fundamental problem of astrobiology and modern science. The current progress in the detection of terrestrial-type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favourable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of global (astrospheric), and local (atmospheric and surface) environments of exoplanets in the habitable zones (HZs) around G-K-M dwarf stars including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favourable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro)physical, chemical and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the HZ to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field in light of presentations and discussions during the NASA Nexus for Exoplanetary System Science funded workshop ‘Exoplanetary Space Weather, Climate and Habitability’ and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.
Sudden unexpected infant death, including sudden infant death syndrome, is the leading cause of death in infants one month to one year of age, in the developed world. A thorough investigation is crucial for accurate diagnosis. As part of the Diagnostic Pediatric Pathology Series, this book provides a detailed guide to various diagnoses and strong frameworks across continents, for strong support in conducting a multi-professional approach to the physiopathological mechanisms behind SIDS. Offering sensitive consideration for parents in mourning, this book rigorously explores current standards of police investigation and post-mortem, incorporating all aspects of the investigation, including the home visit, medical history and autopsy findings. Written by multidisciplinary experts, this vital guide uses clear reference tables and diagrams to present cutting-edge knowledge for use by paediatric and general pathologists, paediatricians, medico-legal practitioners, and all involved in the investigation of sudden infant death.