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Assessment of risks of illnesses has been an important part of medicine for decades. We now have hundreds of ‘risk calculators’ for illnesses, including brain disorders, and these calculators are continually improving as more diverse measures are collected on larger samples.
We first replicated an existing psychosis risk calculator and then used our own sample to develop a similar calculator for use in recruiting ‘psychosis risk’ enriched community samples. We assessed 632 participants age 8–21 (52% female; 48% Black) from a community sample with longitudinal data on neurocognitive, clinical, medical, and environmental variables. We used this information to predict psychosis spectrum (PS) status in the future. We selected variables based on lasso, random forest, and statistical inference relief; and predicted future PS using ridge regression, random forest, and support vector machines.
Cross-validated prediction diagnostics were obtained by building and testing models in randomly selected sub-samples of the data, resulting in a distribution of the diagnostics; we report the mean. The strongest predictors of later PS status were the Children's Global Assessment Scale; delusions of predicting the future or having one's thoughts/actions controlled; and the percent married in one's neighborhood. Random forest followed by ridge regression was most accurate, with a cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adjustment of the model including only six variables reached an AUC of 0.70.
Results support the potential application of risk calculators for screening and identification of at-risk community youth in prospective investigations of developmental trajectories of the PS.
The German composer Michael Maierhof took a curious and unusual path to becoming a professional composer, performer and concert organiser, one that gives him a unique perspective on the German art music scene. This interview with Maierhof took place on 17 January 2020 in Maierhof's apartment in Hamburg, Germany and forms part of my research into the artistic and socio-economic motivations that composers and artistic directors employ when utilizing a conductor. The interview explores his personal history, compositional techniques, and perspective on the course of contemporary musical history before going on to consider his views on conductor's responsibilities and their role in contemporary music.
Background: Peritoneal dialysis is a type of dialysis performed by patients in their homes; patients receive training from dialysis clinic staff. Peritonitis is a serious complication of peritoneal dialysis, most commonly caused by gram-positive organisms. During March‒April 2019, a dialysis provider organization transitioned ~400 patients to a different manufacturer of peritoneal dialysis equipment and supplies (from product A to B). Shortly thereafter, patients experienced an increase in peritonitis episodes, caused predominantly by gram-negative organisms. In May 2019, we initiated an investigation to determine the source. Methods: We conducted case finding, reviewed medical records, observed peritoneal dialysis procedures and trainings, and performed patient home visits and interviews. A 1:1 matched case–control study was performed in 1 state. A case had ≥2 of the following: (1) positive peritoneal fluid culture, (2) high peritoneal fluid white cell count with ≥50% polymorphonuclear cells, or (3) cloudy peritoneal fluid and/or abdominal pain. Controls were matched to cases by week of clinic visit. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate univariate matched odds ratios (mOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We conducted microbiological testing of peritoneal dialysis fluid bags to rule out product contamination. Results: During March‒September 2019, we identified 157 cases of peritonitis across 15 clinics in 2 states (attack rate≍39%). Staphylococcus spp (14%), Serratia spp (12%) and Klebsiella spp (6.3%) were the most common pathogens. Steps to perform peritoneal dialysis using product B differed from product A in several key areas; however, no common errors in practice were identified to explain the outbreak. Patient training on transitioning products was not standardized. Outcomes of the 73 cases in the case–control study included hospitalization (77%), peritoneal dialysis failure (40%), and death (7%). The median duration of training prior to product transition was 1 day for cases and controls (P = .86). Transitioning to product B (mOR, 18.00; 95% CI, 2.40‒134.83), using product B (mOR, 18.26; 95% CI, 3.86‒∞), drain-line reuse (mOR, 4.67; 95% CI, 1.34‒16.24) and performing daytime exchanges (mOR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.71‒8.45) were associated with peritonitis. After several interventions, including transition of patients back to product A (Fig. 1), overall cases declined. Sterility testing of samples from 23 unopened product B peritoneal dialysis solution bags showed no contamination. Conclusions: Multiple factors may have contributed to this large outbreak, including a rapid transition in peritoneal dialysis products and potentially inadequate patient training. Efforts are needed to identify and incorporate best training practices, and product advances are desired to improve the safety of patient transitions between different types of peritoneal dialysis equipment.
Supraglacial debris is significant in many regions and complicates modeling of glacier melt, which is required for predicting glacier change and its influences on hydrology and sea-level rise. Temperature-index models are a popular alternative to energy-balance models when forcing data are limited, but their transferability among glaciers and inherent uncertainty have not been documented in application to debris-covered glaciers. Here, melt factors were compiled directly from published studies or computed from reported melt and MERRA-2 air temperature for 27 debris-covered glaciers around the world. Linear mixed-effects models were fit to predict melt factors from debris thickness and variables including debris lithology and MERRA-2 radiative exchange. The models were tested by leave-one-site-out cross-validation based on predicted melt rates. The best model included debris thickness (fixed effect) and glacier and year (random effects). Predictions were more accurate using MERRA-2 than on-site air temperature data, and pooling MERRA-2-derived and reported melt factors improved cross-validation accuracy more than including additional predictors such as shortwave or longwave radiation. At one glacier where monthly ablation was measured over 4 years, seasonal variation of melt factors suggested that heat storage significantly affected the relation between melt and energy exchange at the debris surface.
In 2012, the US government overhauled school nutrition standards, but few studies have evaluated the effects of these standards at the national level. The current study examines the impact of the updated school nutrition standards on dietary and health outcomes of schoolchildren in a nationally representative data set.
Difference-in-differences. We compared weekday fruit and vegetable intake between students with daily school lunch participation and students without school lunch participation before and after implementation of updated school nutrition standards using a multivariable linear regression model. Secondary outcomes included weekday solid fat and added sugar (SoFAS) intake and overweight and obesity prevalence. We adjusted analyses for demographic and family socio-economic factors.
K-12 students, aged 6–20 years (n 9172), from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005–2016.
Implementation of updated school nutrition standards was not associated with a change in weekday fruit and vegetable intake (β = 0·02 cups, 95 % CI −0·23, 0·26) for students with daily school lunch participation. However, implementation of the policy was associated with a 1·5 percentage point (95 % CI −3·0, −0·1) decline in weekday SoFAS intake and a 6·1 percentage point (95 % CI −12·1, −0·1) decline in overweight and obesity prevalence.
Changes to US school nutrition standards were associated with reductions in the consumption of SoFAS as well as a decrease in overweight and obesity in children who eat school lunch. However, we did not detect a change in weekday intake of fruits and vegetables associated with the policy change.
Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon (14C) dates in North American archaeology is increasing, especially among archaeologists working in deeper time. However, historical archaeologists have been slow to embrace these new techniques, and there have been only a few examples of the incorporation of calendar dates as informative priors in Bayesian models in such work in the United States. To illustrate the value of Bayesian approaches to sites with both substantial earlier Native American occupations as well as a historic era European presence, we present the results of our Bayesian analysis of 14C dates from the earlier Guale village and the Mission period contexts from the Sapelo Shell Ring Complex (9MC23) in southern Georgia. Jefferies and Moore have explored the Spanish Mission period deposits at this site to better understand the Native American interactions with the Spanish during the 16th and 17th centuries along the Georgia Coast. Given the results of our Bayesian modeling, we can say with some degree of confidence that the deposits thus far excavated and sampled contain important information dating to the 17th-century mission on Sapelo Island. In addition, our modeling of new dates suggests the range of the pre-Mission era Guale village. Based on these new dates, we can now say with some degree of certainty which of the deposits sampled likely contain information that dates to one of the critical periods of Mission period research, the AD 1660–1684 period that ushered in the close of mission efforts on the Georgia Coast.
Introduction: This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the Échelle québécoise de triage préhospitalier en traumatologie (EQTPT) to identify patients who will need urgent and specialized trauma care in the La Capitale-Nationale region, province of Quebec. Methods: A detailed review of prehospital and in-hospital medical charts was conducted for a sample of patients transported following a trauma by ambulance to one of the five CHU de Quebec's emergency departments (ED) between November 2016 and March 2017. Data related to the trauma mechanism, population, injuries sustained, diagnosis, intervention and patient outcomes were extracted. The study primary outcome was the use of at least one urgent and specialized trauma care defined as: admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), urgent surgery within less than 24 hours after arrival (excluding orthopedic surgery for one limb only), intubation in ED, angioembolization within 24 hours after ED arrival, activation of a massive transfusion protocol in the ED. Also, patients who died secondary to their trauma were also considered as requiring urgent care. Results: 902 patients were included. The mean age (SD) was 59 (28.5) years old, 494 (54.8%) were female. The main trauma mechanisms were falls (592 (65.6%)) followed by motor vehicle accident (201 (22%)). 367 (40.7%) patients were transported directly to the tertiary trauma centre from the field. 231 (25.6%) patients had at least one criteria included in the steps 1, 2 or 3 of the EQTPT. Subsequently, most patients (649 (71.9%) were discharged home from the ED while 177 (19.6%) patients were admitted to the hospital. 82 (9.1%) patients required urgent and specialized trauma care. Of these 82 patients, 27 patients (32%) were identified in step 1 of the protocol, 12 patients (14.6%) in step 2, 5 patients (6.1%) in step 3, 13 patients (15.9%) in step 4 and 2 patients (2.4%) in step 5 while 23 (28.0%) patients were not identified by any steps of the EQTPT protocol. Therefore, 44 (53.6%) of the patients requiring urgent and specialized trauma care were identified by the criteria proposed in the steps 1, 2 or 3. Conclusion: In this retrospective cohort study, the EQTPT was insensitive to identify trauma patients who will need prompt and complex trauma management. Studies are required to determine the factors that could help improve its accuracy.
Introduction: Patients hospitalized following a trauma will be frequently treated with opioids during their stay and after discharge. We examined the relationship between acute phase (< 3 months) opioid use after discharge and the risk of opioid poisoning (OP) or opioid use disorder (OUD) in older trauma patients Methods: In a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted on registry data, we included all patients aged 65 years and older admitted (hospital stay >2 days) for injury in 57 trauma centers in the province of Quebec (Canada) between 2004 and 2014. We searched for OP and OUD from ICD-9 and ICD-10 code diagnosis that resulted in a hospitalization or a medical consultation after their initial injury. Patients that filled an opioid prescription within a 3-month period after sustaining the trauma were compared to those who did not fill an opioid prescription during that period using Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results: A total of 70,314 participants were retained for analysis; median age was 82 years (IQR: 75-87), 68% were women, and 34% of the patients filled an opioid prescription within 3-months of the initial trauma. During a median follow-up of 2.6 years (IQR: 1-5), 192 participants (0.30%; 95%CI: 0.25%-0.35%) were hospitalized for OP and 73 (0.10%; 95%CI: 0.07%-0.13%) were diagnosed with OUD. Having filled an opioid prescription within 3-months of injury was associated with an increased hazard ratio of OP (2.6; 95%CI: 1.9-3.5) and OUD (4.0; 95%CI: 2.3-7.0). However, history of OP (2.7; 95%CI: 1.2-6.1), of substance use disorder (4.3; 95%CI: 2.4-7.9), or of opioid prescription filled (2.7; 95%CI: 2.1-3.5) before trauma were also related to OP or OUD. Conclusion: Opioid poisoning and opioid use disorder are rare events after hospitalization for trauma in older patients. However, opioids should be used cautiously in patients with history of substance use disorder, opioid poisoning or opioid use during the past year.
Physiological regulation may interact with early experiences such as maltreatment to increase risk for behavior problems. In the current study, we investigate the role of parasympathetic nervous system regulation (respiratory sinus arrhythmia [RSA] at rest and in response to a frustration task) as a moderator of the association between early risk for maltreatment (i.e., involvement with Child Protective Services; CPS) and externalizing behavior problems in middle childhood. CPS involvement was associated with elevated externalizing problems, but only among children with average to high RSA at rest and average to high RSA withdrawal in response to frustration. Effects appeared to be specific to CPS involvement as the association between cumulative risk (i.e., nonmaltreatment experiences of early adversity) and externalizing problems was not significantly moderated by RSA activity. These findings are consistent with the theoretical idea that the consequences of early maltreatment for later externalizing behavior problems depend on children's biological regulation abilities.
To diagnose egocentric neglect after stroke, the spatial bias of performance on cancellation tasks is typically compared to a single cutoff. This standard procedure relies on the assumption that the measurement error of cancellation performance does not depend on non-spatial impairments affecting the total number of cancelled targets. Here we assessed the impact of this assumption on false-positive diagnoses.
We estimated false positives by simulating cancellation data using a binomial model. Performance was summarised by the difference in left and right cancelled targets (R-L) and the Centre of Cancellation (CoC). Diagnosis was based on a fixed cutoff versus cutoffs adjusted for the total number of cancelled targets and on single test performance versus unanimous or proportional agreement across multiple tests. Finally, we compared the simulation findings to empirical cancellation data acquired from 651 stroke patients.
Using a fixed cutoff, the rate of false positives depended on the total number of cancelled targets and ranged from 10% to 30% for R-L scores and from 10% to 90% for CoC scores. The rate of false positives increased even further when diagnosis was based on proportional agreement across multiple tests. Adjusted cutoffs and unanimous agreement across multiple tests were effective at controlling false positives. For empirical data, fixed versus adjusted cutoffs differ in estimation of neglect prevalence by 13%, and this difference was largest for patients with non-spatial impairments.
Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering non-spatial impairments when diagnosing neglect based on cancellation performance.
In the NHS Forth Valley (Central Scotland) substance misuse service (SMS), there is an arrangement whereby the details of individuals administered naloxone for overdose via the ambulance service are passed to the SMS. Each patient has an allocated keyworker (nurse). It is accepted that near fatal overdoses (NFOs) are possible precursors to fatal overdose and drug-related deaths.
– if the information is being disseminated appropriately;
– service response and follow-up for individuals;
– patterns which might influence prescribing practice.
A list of NFOs of known patients for the previous two years was acquired from the ambulance service. There was a retrospective review of the SMS prescribing database and clinical casenotes.
– 81% male;
– 53% aged < 40;
– 14% of NFO's involved those in titration phase;
– 86% were prescribed methadone. Methadone average dose 57 mg (20–80 mg) and 54% were prescribed > 60 mg/day.
Receipts of information:
– sixty-one percent of keyworkers were notified.
– in most cases when the keyworkers was informed, there was prompt action to contact and review patients (0–21 days). However, only 21% had a timely review (within 1 month) by a doctor following NFO.
There needs to be an improvement in the dissemination of information between the ambulance service, administrative staff and keyworkers. Most NFO patients were prescribed > 60 mg of methadone. There needs to better identification of “harm-reduction” prescribing whereby methadone doses should be reduced at times of ongoing drug use. Fourteen percent of NFO's involved those in titration phase (twice weekly reviews) which provides an opportunity to screen and intervene for potential NFOs.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
The importance of timely identification and treatment of psychosis are increasingly the focus of early interventions, with research targeting the initial high-risk period in the months following first-episode hospitalization. However, ongoing psychiatric treatment and service utilization after the symptoms have been stabilized over the initial years following first-episode has received less research attention.
To model the variables predicting continued service utilization with psychiatrists for adolescents following their first-episode psychosis; examine associated temporal patterns in continued psychiatric service utilization.
This study utilized a cohort design to assess adolescents (age 14.4 ± 2.5 years) discharged following their index hospitalization for first-episode psychosis. Bivariate analyses were conducted on predictor variables associated with psychiatric service utilization. All significant predictor variables were included in a logistic regression model.
Variables that were significantly associated with psychiatric service utilization included: diagnosis with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder rather than major mood disorder with psychotic features (OR = 24.0; P = 0.02), a first degree relative with depression (OR = 0.12; P = 0.05), and months since last psychiatric inpatient discharge (OR = 0.92; P = 0.02). Further examination of time since last hospitalization found that all adolescents continued service utilization up to 18 months post-discharge.
Key findings highlight the importance of early diagnosis, that a first degree relative with depression may negatively influence the adolescent's ongoing service utilization, and that 18 months post-discharge may a critical time to review current treatment strategies and collaborate with youth and families to ensure that services continue to meet their needs.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) eating pattern has been shown to reduce blood pressure (BP) in previous clinical trials. In the PREMIER study, an established behavioural intervention, with or without DASH, promoted greater weight loss than an advice-only control group, but effects of the DASH intervention on BP were weaker. In these analyses, PREMIER data were used to evaluate whether change in dairy product or fruit and vegetable (FV) intake during the first six intervention months impacted changes in weight and/or BP. Study participants were classified as having low or high intakes of dairy products (<1·5 v. ≥1·5 servings/d) and FV (<5 v. ≥5 servings/d) at baseline and 6 months. For dairy products, in particular, participants with higher baseline intakes tended to decrease their intakes during the intervention. In these analyses, subjects consuming <1·5 dairy servings/d at baseline whose intake increased during the intervention lost more weight than those whose intake decreased or remained low throughout (10·6 v. 7·0 pounds (4·8 v. 3·2 kg) lost, respectively, P = 0·002). The same was true for FV intake (11·0 v. 5·9 pounds (5·0 v. 2·7 kg) lost, P < 0·001). We also found synergistic effects of dairy products and FV on weight loss and BP reduction. Specifically, subjects who increased their intakes of dairy products and also consumed ≥5 servings of FV/d lost more weight and had greater reductions in BP than other groups; in addition, higher FV intakes had the greatest benefit to BP among those consuming more dairy products. These results provide evidence that the DASH pattern was most beneficial to individuals whose baseline diet was less consistent with DASH.
Academic medical centers (AMCs) face challenges in conducting research among traditionally marginalized communities due to long-standing community mistrust. Evidence suggests that some AMC faculty and staff lack an understanding of the history of distrust and social determinants of health (SDH) affecting their communities. Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science Institute Program in Community Engagement (PCE) aims to build bridges between communities and Wake Forest Baptist Health by equipping faculty, clinicians, administrators, and staff (FCAS) with a better understanding of SDH. The PCE collaborated with community partners to develop and implement community tours to improve cross-community AMC understanding and communication, enhance knowledge of SDH, and build awareness of community needs, priorities, and assets. Nine day-long tours have been conducted with 92 FCAS. Tours included routes through under-resourced neighborhoods and visits to community assets. Participant evaluations assessed program quality; 89% reported enhanced understanding of access-to-care barriers and how SDH affect health; 86% acknowledged the experience would improve future interactions with participants and patients; and 96% agreed they would recommend the tour to colleagues. This work supports the use of community tours as a strategy to improve cross-community AMC communication, build trust, and raise awareness of community needs, priorities, and assets.
Nearly half of care home residents with advanced dementia have clinically significant agitation. Little is known about costs associated with these symptoms toward the end of life. We calculated monetary costs associated with agitation from UK National Health Service, personal social services, and societal perspectives.
Prospective cohort study.
Thirteen nursing homes in London and the southeast of England.
Seventy-nine people with advanced dementia (Functional Assessment Staging Tool grade 6e and above) residing in nursing homes, and thirty-five of their informal carers.
Data collected at study entry and monthly for up to 9 months, extrapolated for expression per annum. Agitation was assessed using the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI). Health and social care costs of residing in care homes, and costs of contacts with health and social care services were calculated from national unit costs; for a societal perspective, costs of providing informal care were estimated using the resource utilization in dementia (RUD)-Lite scale.
After adjustment, health and social care costs, and costs of providing informal care varied significantly by level of agitation as death approached, from £23,000 over a 1-year period with no agitation symptoms (CMAI agitation score 0–10) to £45,000 at the most severe level (CMAI agitation score >100). On average, agitation accounted for 30% of health and social care costs. Informal care costs were substantial, constituting 29% of total costs.
With the increasing prevalence of dementia, costs of care will impact on healthcare and social services systems, as well as informal carers. Agitation is a key driver of these costs in people with advanced dementia presenting complex challenges for symptom management, service planners, and providers.
Evidence suggests that dietary intake of UK children is currently suboptimal. It is therefore imperative to identify effective and sustainable methods of improving dietary habits and knowledge in this population, whilst also promoting the value of healthiness of food products beyond price. Schools are ideally placed to influence children's knowledge and health, and Project Daire, in partnership with schools, food industry partners and stakeholders, aims to improve children's knowledge of, and interest in, food to improve health, wellbeing and educational attainment.
Daire is a randomised-controlled, factorial design trial evaluating two interventions. In total, n = 880 Key Stage (KS) 1 and 2 pupils have been recruited from 18 primary schools in the North West of Northern Ireland and will be randomised to one of four 6-month intervention arms: i) ‘Engage’, ii) ‘Nourish’, iii) ‘Engage’ and ‘Nourish’ and iv) Delayed. ‘Engage’ is an age-appropriate, cross-curricular educational intervention on food, agriculture, science and careers linked to the current curriculum. ‘Nourish’ is an intervention aiming to alter schools’ food environments and increase exposure to local foods. Study outcomes include food knowledge, attitudes, trust, diet, behaviour, health and wellbeing and will be collected at baseline and six months. Qualitative data on teacher/pupil opinions will also be collected. The intervention phase is currently ongoing. We present baseline results from our involvement and food attitudes measure from all participating schools. Results were compared by Key Stage and sex using Pearson Chi-Squared test.
Baseline results from our food involvement and attitudes measure are presented for n = 880 KS1 (n = 454) and KS2 (n = 426) pupils. KS1 pupils were more likely to always or sometimes help with food shopping (89.0%) whilst KS2 pupils were more likely to always or sometimes help with food preparation (69.0%). A higher proportion of KS1 pupils reported liking to try new foods (66.1%) and that it was important that food looked (64.5%), tasted (71.1%) and smelled good (60.6%) compared with KS2 children (P < 0.01). Girls were more likely to always or sometimes help with food shopping (96.2%) and preparation (73%) when compared with boys; whilst a higher proportion of girls reported they liked to try new foods (48.2%) and that it was important that food looked (68%) smelled (50.5%) and tasted (71.8%) good compared with boys (P < 0.01).
Results suggest that involvement in food preparation and shopping, willingness to try new foods and attitudes towards food presentation varied by KS and sex in this cohort.
Recent comparisons between classical Wagner theory for the impact of two liquid droplets and direct numerical simulations in Cimpeanu & Moore (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 856, 2018, pp. 764–796) show that, in some regimes, the inviscid theory over-predicts the thickness of the root of the splash jet that forms in the impact, while also struggling to predict the angle at which the jet is emitted. The effect of capillary and viscous perturbations to Helmholtz flows was investigated in a previous study, see Moore et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 742, 2014, R1). However, the paper in question ignored a term in the second-order perturbation analysis, which needs to be included in order to predict the displacement of the inviscid free boundary to lowest order. In this paper, we derive a singular integro-differential equation for the free-surface perturbations caused by viscosity in Helmholtz flows and discuss its application both in the context of Wagner theory and more generally. In particular, viscosity can induce non-monotonic behaviour in the free boundary profiles near points of maximum curvature.