It was generally a busy year for Brunei Darussalam in 2019 as it continued to focus on developmental issues while experiencing peace and political stability. Recurring concerns for the economy and administration surfaced periodically in line with fresh assessments towards the one major national goal—Wawasan 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035). Except for intense but short-lived global attention on its syariah system of jurisprudence, Brunei's domestic affairs were not of much concern for foreign observers. The effects of the preceding years’ reduced income from the country's hydrocarbon exports were still felt by the domestic economy, although global prices for oil had moderately improved in early 2019. Any increase in prices for the period under study was only speculative given the uncertainty of global economic trends. Increasing down-stream hydrocarbon activities provided diversification, while improved productive capacities in agriculture and agroindustry were sought. The recurring national concerns had familiar undertones—except that relevant policymakers appeared more committed to advancing the social and economic development of the state—with frequent admonishment from the Head of State and Government, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah.

Managing the State

As a small state, Brunei is politically and economically manageable in accordance with the stated priorities embodied in its philosophy of Melayu Islam Beraja (MIB; Malay Islamic Monarchy) and Vision 2035, which promotes socio-economic developmental goals. At an average growth rate of 3 per cent, the 2018 population was 442,400, a bane for large-scale economic activities. However, guided by the twin pillars of Vision 2035 and the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030, the policymakers are mindful of the directions that uphold the national aspirations of growth amidst austerity in providing a satisfactory quality of life for Bruneians. The annual economic growth rate is of concern. In his speech on the occasion of the New Year 2019, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah expected better economic growth for the year. However, he reminded his subjects that they had to “march forward … with full spirit and determination” and not be plagued with “lazy syndrome”. He urged them to be “a more proactive and productive society” in light of the economic challenges faced by Brunei.

After a year of busy schedules as ASEAN Chair in 2013, Brunei Darussalam settled into its more routine national activities and concerns in 2014. It was also a year of reflection as it observed its thirtieth year of full sovereignty. As the year progressed it was evident that two main areas of national interest would preoccupy policymakers: the economy, and the recently gazetted Syariah law. In other areas of domestic and international affairs, the sultanate fared reasonably well in accordance with its projected policies.

Hauling the Economy Forward

Economy's Pillars

The long-term forward looking Wawasan 2035 (Vision 2035) continued to provide the national goals for economic and social development while the 10th Five Year Development Plan (2012–17) provided the more immediate targets in development. By 2035, Brunei aims to achieve a sustainable and dynamic economy, with a well-educated and skilled people enjoying a high quality of life. The integrated approach calls for strategic development in such areas as domestic business, education, environment, infrastructure, institutions and social security. Progressive and sustainable growth has been identified as vital in achieving the goals of Vision 2035. Some strategies seem to be working while others are still lagging. For instance, educational, infrastructural and institutional development have been given more emphasis, while economic development, as a result of structural inadequacies and external dependencies has not contributed to a comfortable growth rate. In a titah (speech), Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah, Head of State and Government, announced the establishment of the Council for Vision 2035 (Majlis Wawasan 2035) to assess and ensure the targets of the Vision were realized. The national economy grew at a slow pace, reaching an average of about 1 per cent. According to the Department of Economic Planning and Development, Brunei's second quarter recorded a growth of 0.8 per cent. It noted that the prevailing conditions in the third and fourth quarters were not favourable to Brunei's GDP growth. A report from the OECD stated that ASEAN can expect an average of 5.6 per cent while Brunei is expected to average 1.6 per cent from 2015–19; that would be higher than the 0.9 per cent growth between 2011 and 2013.

ABSTRACT

Global political changes and regional geopolitical accommodations have had a profound impact on Southeast Asia-Russia relations. The various states of Southeast Asia have had different experiences in their relationship with Russia, especially under the Soviet Union; there was an “unwritten” separation of Southeast Asia into those states that had close ties and those that did not, irrespective of diplomatic status. Political ideology and the expected level of beneficial outcomes were the causal reasons — accounting positively or negatively towards the shared perception of both regions. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the renewed interest of Southeast Asian states towards a reconstituted Russian federation, both parties were ready to explore mutual ties. Thus the stage was set, not only for increased bilateral relations, but also for the collective relationship between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Russia. While not yet as active and integrated as ASEAN's relations with the other Dialogue Partners, the ASEAN-Russia links are gradually gaining momentum as indicated by increased political, economic and social interactions.

THE PAST ON THE PRESENT — INFLUENCES ON SOUTHEAST ASIA AND RUSSIA

The long absence of any form of significant relationship between most of the states of Southeast Asia and Russia was the result of mutually prevalent factors of geography, ignorance, suspicion and the general lack of leaders’ incentives to forge closer ties. The past, perhaps as far back as the beginnings of the western colonial period in Southeast Asia in the sixteenth century, has not registered significant encounters with Russia. Fast forward to the period as represented by the twentieth century as characterized by the Russian Revolution and the rising Soviet Union in a Cold War entanglement — that only added to the drift between the two geographical areas, except for those in Southeast Asia, who were inspired by the ideals of Marxism. Thus a few of the states looked to the Soviet Union as a political model and thus support, while other non communist states exercised partiality from a potentially “dangerous” power that might subvert the entrenched local political systems.

Within ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Brunei Darussalam occupies a distinct position mainly as a result of its domestic characteristics. Thus its actions towards the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and regional economic integration are guided in some instances, and hindered in other instances, by those special features inherent in its political, sociocultural, and economic systems (see Table 12.1).

Being one of the original six of the ASEAN grouping, Brunei has never wavered in its support for common political-security, economic, and social policies that could contribute towards ensuring a peaceful and developed region. However, the nature of its own environment does not render it a lead player, let alone an active player. Brunei is the smallest member, with an area of 5,765 square kilometres and a population of only about 400,000. In addition, its economy is dependent on the oil and gas sectors which together accounted for about 96 per cent of its total export earnings in 2009. This overreliance on the hydrocarbon contribution has had a negative impact on the general trend of economic activity in the state, and Brunei has only in the last few years taken serious steps to reduce its dependence by seeking a more diversified economic base. Non-oil exports are negligible, and thus Brunei may not be able to enjoy the full advantage of the regional economic integration. On the other hand, as a country with little agricultural and manufacturing of its own, it is able to enjoy all the benefits of a free trade area as it imports a wide variety of goods, about 51 per cent of which come from its ASEAN partners. It also stands to gain from the trade in services as local and foreign firms will be able to operate under the AEC initiative if they are located in Brunei.

Government interest in and support for the AEC have been way ahead of the economic realities of the country and at times it appears that the public enthusiasm and business participation are two different carriages running along parallel tracks. Both public and private sectors are of course committed to increasing economic activity and contributing to increased income.

Economic growth in Southeast Asia slowed down in 2011 after the sharp recovery in 2010 from the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–9. A cooling down was particularly evident in the second half of the year. There was considerable uncertainty about how the European crisis would unfold, the prospects of a U.S. recovery, how much China would decelerate, and the future of oil prices.

In the political arena, the changes in Myanmar were the most striking. Reforms enacted during the elected government's first year in office under the new constitution exceeded the expectations of most observers. Less media grabbing, but still important, was the Singapore general election in May. It signified a more open and competitive political environment and more vigorous debate of government policies. There was little change in the political openness (or lack of it) in other countries in the region. The general election in Thailand made no difference to the continuing political polarization in the country. Indonesia was generally stable and attracted more attention as an investment destination. However, good growth rates masked continuing economic weaknesses and failure to protect religious minorities was also a troubling blemish. Democracy is not yet entrenched in strong institutions.

In Southeast Asia's interstate relations, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia stood out, demonstrating the role of narrow nationalism over wider ASEAN interests. Elsewhere interstate relations were generally amicable, though often not problem free. There are still many unresolved boundary disputes and border problems — both land and maritime — between Southeast Asian countries. Though mostly quiet for the moment, there is the risk of flare-ups if they are politicized within countries as happened in the case of the Thai-Cambodia border conflict.

The year also saw the United States announcing a shift of strategic focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific, or more precisely to the “Indo-Pacific” region, which includes both the Asia Pacific and India/Indian Ocean. This reflected the shift in global economic power towards Asia where America would want continued commercial access to sustain its own growth.

Brunei Darussalam's concern about addressing an array of issues was evident throughout the year. While none were uniquely pressing, most were of ongoing interest that prompted the leaders’ efforts in engaging the society towards realizing the long term goals of Wawasan 2035, Brunei's vision for national development by 2035. Although progress towards the vision was slow, results showed incremental achievements. As a hereditary monarchy, and with the absence of a contested and confrontational political environment, Brunei's national emphasis is on economic, social, and spiritual goals that can be pursued congenially.

Nudging the Economy Forward

The government has never been more serious about economic development in order to decrease Brunei's dependence on the sale of crude oil and gas. It is assisting the participation of the private sector and promoting the education and training of youth to equip them for relevant employment opportunities.

Brunei's policymakers are naturally concerned by the usual poor grades the country receives from such global studies as the World Bank's Doing Business report or the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report. Nevertheless, Brunei's overall ranking has improved over previous years, aided by high scores on such indicators as macroeconomic environment and political stability. The World Bank has classified Brunei in the high income category as it has a gross national income per capita of about US$31,000, yet its other indicators lag behind high-income economies in providing relevant and sustainable regulations for creating an attractive business environment. These findings have generated various local views and reviews by those in the public and business sectors. An initiative from the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources stated that a single portal for business applications was in the pipeline that would eliminate the current practice of seeking approval from thirteen different agencies. The new procedures were expected to be ready by late 2011. Another concrete improvement came from the Municipal Board to speed up approval of applications for business enterprises.

Political, economic, and sociocultural measures adopted each year bring Brunei Darussalam closer to the long-term goal embodied in the Wawasan (Vision) 2035: to turn Brunei into a developed country, one that is well regarded internationally. Brunei is at the mid-point of its first five-year development plan (2007–12) under the Wawasan. It continues to implement policies to reach its targets for education and human resource development, economic and business development, institutional and infrastructure development, and environmental protection and national security. Two issue areas that will continue to be in focus during the next two to three years will be food security, especially through an effort to increase rice production, and energy security, including conservation of existing supplies and the search for new sources of energy.

Domestically, there are no major concerns in governance or administration. Brunei's head of state and of government, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah, has ensured that the appointees in place at the head of the various state institutions will work toward fulfilling expected responsibilities. The Sultan himself also heads the Ministries of Defence and Finance, and holds the top positions in the armed forces and police. Crown Prince Al-Muhtadee Billah, the second most important person in the political hierarchy and future head of state and government, is now well established in his roles as Senior Minister, a general in the Royal Brunei Armed Forces, and as Deputy Inspector General of Police.

The Council of Cabinet ranks as another important state institution. A reshuffle of the ministers took place in June 2010; the new members will serve for the next five years. There will be no major policy shift, as the majority in the cabinet constitute familiar faces.

While the full impact of the global recession of 2008 and early 2009 spared Brunei Darussalam, it nevertheless had to tread cautiously and avert any negative consequences from the economic fallout on the socio-political landscape. Brunei Darussalam — the abode of peace — is often characterized by outsiders as a place where life is easy and nothing much ever happens. To the casual observer it may appear that no dramatic events upset this state of affairs. But Brunei Darussalam has had its share of significant issues, and 2009 will be seen as an eventful year in the socio-political annals of the state.

Maturing Nation

Brunei entered its twenty-fifth year of statehood with the theme Kedewasaan Bernegara (maturity of the nation) for its national day celebrations. The aspirations of a maturing nation were emphasized in leaders’ pronouncements and policy implementations. Although a modernizing monarchical system with an appointed cabinet, the system has nevertheless become entrenched for ministers and civil servants to follow a well trodden behavioural system established over the decades. This particular attitude and work ethic finally drew a hard hitting speech from the monarch, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah. He berated the state's ministers and officials for their lack of initiative and failure to be proactive in a number of areas that required appropriate action plans, and remarked his abhorrence of the practice of acting like robots. Although welcoming his frank observations, the nation was taken aback by such a forceful speech by the Sultan. Moreover, it became a recurrent theme in his addresses throughout the year; he has been expressing his deep concern over the state of affairs through a few other equally intense remarks, for instance, on the issue of unspent zakat money in the face of prevalent poverty within certain sections of the community, the direction the newly created Islamic University was pursuing against the original intentions that it was established for, and the lack of obligatory religious education in the revamped syllabus for public schools.

As in previous years, the legislative council met for its annual deliberations in March.

Brunei Darussalam

As the most stable, predictable and wealthy of the Southeast Asian states, Brunei Darussalam is in no hurry to change the status quo. This generalization applies to the governmental apparatus as well as the peoples' attitudes. The next few years will see continuity in present policies and processes, although some issues may be addressed more vigorously than in the past. One such issue must surely be the country's general complacency with its comfortable economic status, a result of income from the oil and gas sector. Confidence has been shaken to some extent by the volatile energy markets of the recent past. A search for alternative means of maintaining comparable income levels and the comfort and expectations of the society has to some degree begun.

A small state of about 390,000 people with a low annual rate of population increase, Brunei will continue to enjoy the benefits of its oil and gas income, overseen by a centrally managed political system under the Malay Islamic Monarchy. However, the main worry continues to be over its economic rather than its political system. As long as oil prices remain relatively high, it will bode well for the country in the medium term, as hydrocarbon reserves are still being discovered and added to sources of national income. Thus it is thought that national leaders expect the oil and gas sector to play a central role at least for the next two decades, even as they insist on the diversification of the economy. Efforts to shake off complacency seek to gear the population towards evolving into committed and productive citizens of the state.

It has been a very busy and auspicious 2007 for Brunei Darussalam. All strata of society appeared united in their combined effort to transform Brunei Darussalam into a more successful and developed model of a Malay Islamic state. Economic and social development occupied centre stage as various public and private sector initiatives were pursued resolutely. It was also the fortieth year of the reign of Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah, a reminder of the event on 5 October 1967 when the young Sultan became the twenty-ninth ruler of the country on the abdication of his father, the late Sir Omar Ali Saifuddien. The anniversary was celebrated with much pomp and display of affection for a ruler who has earned his people's support. The “Melayu Islam Beraja” (Malay Islamic Monarchy) country had further reasons to celebrate with the birth of the Sultan's grandson and son of the Crown Prince, Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah and Pengiran Anak Isteri Pengiran Anak Sarah. The young prince, Abdul Muntaqim, born in March 2007, will be the likely bearer of the unbroken line of the sultanate of Brunei Darussalam.

Visions for the State

The Sultan as Yang Di Pertuan (Head of State and Government) had a record- breaking schedule of meetings, both in and outside the country. Numerous scheduled events saw him addressing crucial issues of the state, extolling the ethos of commitment to economic and social development. A recurrent theme in his addresses dealt with the acquisition of knowledge and skills and issues related to youth, in fact, interrelated concerns on the future of Brunei Darussalam.

One of the reasons cited for the slow take-off of the programme of diversi- fication, away from the dependence on the government and hydrocarbon sectors, was the reluctance of investors to contribute to the state's industrialization efforts. Not only was size the usual excuse, a more factual concern was the lack of skilled local labour force. Thus steps were being taken to address some of the related shortfalls, and hence the emphasis in his majesty's speeches.

The year 2005 was another crucial year for Brunei Darussalam, setting in motion its policy directions for the next decade or so. In fact, it was a strengthening of the strategies introduced the previous year. Consolidation and reform were the key targets of the government as it gained confidence and momentum in forging ahead with political and economic development. The society, in the mean time, took the opportunity to participate in public affairs as signs of openness and transparency increased.

Politics and Governance

The major event of the previous year had been the reconvening of the Legislative Council after an absence of over 20 years as it had been suspended since independence in 1984. One of the main tasks of that assembly, composed of 21 appointed members, was to discuss and pass various amendments to the 1959 Constitution. A high-level committee had been established a few years earlier to review the constitution and related legal matters. His Majesty Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah as Head of State, signed the Proclamation of Brunei's Constitution (Amendments) on 29 September 2004 during the sitting of the legislature. While the constitution reinforced Brunei as a Malay Islamic Monarchy, the legislative process was given prominence as a means for the people to take part in the development of the state, even though the numbers of those participating were limited. It was projected as an official forum to voice opinions and raise issues. Some of the discussions in the Assembly supported that notion. It was also announced that the legislature would be enlarged to 45 members, with provisions for a maximum of 15 representatives to be elected from the four districts of Brunei-Muara, Tutong, Belait, and Temburong.

Contrary to the announcement made the previous year, the legislature did not convene in 2005. By decree, the previous Legislative Council was dissolved as of 1 September and a new one was constituted to take effect as of 2 September.