The sustainable development challenge

In 2015, electrifying optimism surrounded the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as world leaders agreed to a 15-year deal to advance economic, social and environmental development globally, with a focus on those most left behind. The successor to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the SDGs laid out in ‘The Road to Dignity by 2030: Ending Poverty, Transforming All Lives and Protecting the Planet’ (United Nations, 2015a) describes 17 ambitious goals, seen in Figure 0.1, that include: ending poverty and ensuring well-being for all ages, inclusive and equitable education, gender equality and empowerment, decent work and reducing inequality within and among countries (United Nations, 2015b). The global indicator framework, developed by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs), was agreed to at the 47th session of the UN Statistical Commission held in March 2016 and contains 230 indicators and 169 targets (United Nations, 2016).

At its heart, sustainable development is about families and communities living in peace and prosperity, their children growing up safe and healthy, and transitioning to productive adulthood. Chambers and Conway (1991, p 6) were perhaps the first to define sustainable livelihoods ‘which can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and which contributes net benefits to their livelihoods at the local and global levels and in the short and long term’.

Global goals such as the SDGs and the MDGs have undoubtedly driven sustainable development progress. Global averages have improved: children born today are less poor, and experience generally rising living standards, with many families living in better homes, and having access to consumer goods, and services such as electricity, water and sanitation and roads. Major improvements in health and education have been documented, with children born today less likely to be stunted and more likely to complete primary school than their counterparts born in 2000 (United Nations, 2015b).

Keeping in mind the lessons learned from the historical application of global goals (United Nations, 2015b), when looking forward, three key challenges beset the realization of the Sustainable Development agenda.

The first challenge is that progress has not been equitable – and inequalities are not adequately monitored and detected. Throughout the MDG period, advancements were uneven across regions, genders and age groups (Verma and Petersen, 2018).

The landscape of longitudinal research today

This volume has presented examples of world class longitudinal research with policy and programme relevance. They join a growing number of researchers working with longitudinal data. In the last ten years, the number of publications citing use of longitudinal data has grown by 75%, shown in Figure 9.1. This growth presents an important resource for policy makers and practitioners towards meeting their sustainable development targets.

Despite the innovations presented, the potential relevance and impact, it is no doubt that longitudinal researchers today have experienced challenges in their dedication to this type of work.

To further unpack the landscape of longitudinal research, a systematic analysis of 122 longitudinal studies was conducted (Banati, 2019). A comprehensive search of the published literature was undertaken in Google Scholar, Pubmed and Scopus using the following search terms: birth cohort, longitudinal, child, life course and life stage. The study also drew from the largest open source database of longitudinal studies available – the Low and Middle Income Longitudinal Population Study Directory developed by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (2018). Inclusion criteria were (1) a minimum of two rounds of data collection; (2) first round conducted after 1970; (3) capturing information and responding to questions relevant for children. The studies are located in high-, middle- and low-income countries. Without a doubt, this was not an exhaustive process and may not have captured all available studies. Despite this, to our knowledge, we have identified and analysed the largest collection of longitudinal studies among children to date.

In addition, an online survey was created and shared with UNICEF's GLORI network members and additional investigators identified from the systematic analysis. GLORI – the Global Longitudinal Research Initiative – is a research network of longitudinal researchers working on topics relevant for children. It has 31 members working in 41 countries. The membership list can be found on the GLORI website (UNICEF, 2020). These were largely observational studies (61%). Most studies (63%) had more than five years of data collected, the average attrition rate was 19.8%.

Challenges experienced by longitudinal research today

The results of our examination of studies indicate that good longitudinal research is costly, and funding tends to be secured by wave and through multiple donors, with differing priorities. Only 13% of studies were identified as funded by national (governmental) entities, raising questions of sustainability.