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Although lignin has been negatively correlated with neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) digestibility (NDFD) in ruminants and used to predict potential extent of NDF digestion of forages, selection of an analysis, Klason lignin (KL) or acid-detergent lignin (ADL), to describe that the nutritionally relevant lignin has not been resolved. Dismissed as an artifact is the difference between KL and ADL (ΔL). A question is whether ΔL influences NDFD. We evaluated the relationships of ΔL, KL and ADL with NDFD in order to determine the nutritionally homogeneous or heterogeneous nature of KL. Data sets from two laboratories (DS1 and DS2) were used that included ADL, KL and in vitro NDFD at 48 h (NDFD48). DS1 contained seven C3 grasses, seventeen C4 maize forages and nineteen alfalfas, and DS2 had fifteen C3 grasses, eight C4 forages and six alfalfas. Mean ΔL was greater than ADL in C3 and C4 samples and less in alfalfas. Within forage type and laboratory, ΔL was not correlated with NDFD48 (r −0·34–0·49; all P > 0·17). ADL was more consistently correlated with NDFD48 (r −0·47–−0·95; P < 0·01–0·21) than with KL (r 0·03–−0·91; P < 0·01–0·94). ΔL as a proportion of KL was correlated with NDFD48 in C3 and C4 samples (r 0·44–0·76; P < 0·01–0·08). The differing behaviours of ΔL and ADL relative to NDFD48 indicate that KL is a nutritionally heterogeneous fraction, the behaviour of which may vary by forage type and ratios of ADL and ΔL present.
Approximately 18% of adults with intellectual disabilities living in the community display behaviours that challenge. Intensive support teams (ISTs) have been recommended to provide high-quality responsive care aimed at avoiding unnecessary admissions and reducing lengthy in-patient stays.
To identify and describe the geographical distribution and characteristics of ISTs, and to develop a typology of IST service models in England.
We undertook a national cross-sectional survey of 73 ISTs. A hierarchical cluster analysis was performed based on six prespecified grouping factors (mode of referrals, size of case-load, use of outcome measures, staff composition, hours of operation and setting of service). A simplified form of thematic analysis was used to explore free-text responses.
Cluster analysis identified two models of IST provision: (a) independent and (b) enhanced provision based around a community intellectual disability service. ISTs aspire to adopt person-centred care, mostly use the framework of positive behaviour support for behaviour that challenges, and report concerns about organisational and wider context issues.
This is the first study to examine the delivery of intensive support to people with intellectual disability and behaviour that challenges. A two-cluster model of ISTs was found to have statistical validity and clinical utility. The clinical heterogeneity indicates that further evaluation of these service models is needed to establish their clinical and cost-effectiveness.
Optimal stroke care requires access to resources such as neuroimaging, acute revascularization, rehabilitation, and stroke prevention services, which may not be available in rural areas. We aimed to determine geographic access to stroke care for residents of rural communities in the province of Ontario, Canada.
We used the Ontario Road Network File database linked with the 2016 Ontario Acute Stroke Care Resource Inventory to estimate the proportion of people in rural communities, defined as those with a population size <10,000, who were within 30, 60, and 240 minutes of travel time by car from stroke care services, including brain imaging, thrombolysis treatment centers, stroke units, stroke prevention clinics, inpatient rehabilitation facilities, and endovascular treatment centers.
Of the 1,496,262 people residing in rural communities, the majority resided within 60 minutes of driving time to a center with computed tomography (85%), thrombolysis (81%), a stroke unit (68%), a stroke prevention clinic (74%), or inpatient rehabilitation (77.0%), but a much lower proportion (32%) were within 60 minutes of driving time to a center capable of providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT).
Most rural Ontario residents have appropriate geographic access to stroke services, with the exception of EVT. This information may be useful for jurisdictions seeking to optimize the regional organization of stroke care services.
Endothelial dysfunction is a predictor for cardiovascular disease risk and is a key feature of atherosclerosis. Poor diet quality, including consumption of saturated fat-rich, high-refined carbohydrate snack foods, may have adverse effects on endothelial function. Thus, snack foods, which contribute an average of 20% of energy intake in the UK adult population, present an easily identifiable target to improve vascular health. Almonds are nutrient-dense foods that are rich in unsaturated fats, fibre, minerals and non-nutrient bioactives (NNB), and may have health benefits by displacing snacks high in refined carbohydrates, enriching the diet with micronutrients and NNB, and/or low lipid bioaccessibility. Human clinical trials have demonstrated LDL cholesterol-lowering effects of daily almond consumption, yet the effects on endothelial function are unclear. This study aimed to investigate whether replacing habitual snacks (20% estimated daily energy requirements) with almonds had any impact on endothelium-dependent vasodilation, measured by flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) using ultrasound imaging of the brachial artery following reactive hyperaemia. A randomised, controlled, parallel trial in adult regular snack consumers aged 30–70 y at moderate risk of cardiovascular disease was conducted, including a 2-week run-in period with control snacks and a 6-week intervention period. Control sweet and savoury mini muffin snacks were developed to replicate the average UK snack nutrient profile, which was calculated from snack foods identified in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) database (55% energy from carbohydrate, 36% total fat (14% saturated fat), and 10% protein). One hundred and nine volunteers (77 females and 32 males; mean age 56 y) were enrolled in the study and 107 were randomised to isocaloric treatments, 1) control muffins, or 2) dry roasted whole almonds; 105 participants completed the study. Almonds significantly increased FMD relative to control (mean difference 3.6%, 95% CI 1.7, 5.5; P < 0.001), indicating improved endothelial function, and LDL-cholesterol (mean difference -0.25 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.47, -0.03; P = 0.030) significantly decreased adjusted with sex, age and baseline BMI and baseline dependent outcome values. Snacking on whole almonds as a replacement for snacks high in refined starch and sugar, and low in fibre and unsaturated fatty acids, improves endothelial function. The results of this study provide further evidence for the importance of nuts in dietary strategies to reduce risk of cardiovascular disease.
Surgical site infections (SSIs) are common surgical complications that lead to increased costs. Depending on payer type, however, they do not necessarily translate into deficits for every hospital.
We investigated how surgical site infections (SSIs) influence the contribution margin in 2 reimbursement systems based on diagnosis-related groups (DRGs).
This preplanned observational health cost analysis was nested within a Swiss multicenter randomized controlled trial on the timing of preoperative antibiotic prophylaxis in general surgery between February 2013 and August 2015. A simulation of cost and income in the National Health Service (NHS) England reimbursement system was conducted.
Of 5,175 patients initially enrolled, 4,556 had complete cost and income data as well as SSI status available for analysis. SSI occurred in 228 of 4,556 of patients (5%). Patients with SSIs were older, more often male, had higher BMIs, compulsory insurance, longer operations, and more frequent ICU admissions. SSIs led to higher hospital cost and income. The median contribution margin was negative in cases of SSI. In SSI cases, median contribution margin was Swiss francs (CHF) −2045 (IQR, −12,800 to 4,848) versus CHF 895 (IQR, −2,190 to 4,158) in non-SSI cases. Higher ASA class and private insurance were associated with higher contribution margins in SSI cases, and ICU admission led to greater deficits. Private insurance had a strong increasing effect on contribution margin at the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentiles of its distribution, leading to overall positive contribution margins for SSIs in Switzerland. The NHS England simulation with 3,893 patients revealed similar but less pronounced effects of SSI on contribution margin.
Depending on payer type, reimbursement systems with DRGs offer only minor financial incentives to the prevention of SSI.
Harbour (2016) argues for a parsimonious universal set of features for grammatical person distinctions, and suggests (ch. 7) that the same features may also form the basis for systems of deixis. We apply this proposal to an analysis of Heiltsuk, a Wakashan language with a particularly rich set of person-based deictic contrasts (Rath 1981). Heiltsuk demonstratives and third-person pronominal enclitics distinguish proximal-to-speaker, proximal-to-addressee, and distal (in addition to an orthogonal visibility contrast). There are no forms marking proximity to third persons (e.g., ‘near them’) or identifying the location of discourse participants (e.g., ‘you near me’ vs. ‘you over there’), nor does the deictic system make use of the clusivity contrast that appears in the pronoun paradigm (e.g., ‘this near you and me’ vs. ‘this near me and others’). We account for the pattern by implementing Harbour's spatial element χ as a function that yields proximity to its first- or second-person argument.
Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) queries about thoughts of death and self-harm, but not suicidality. Although it is sometimes used to assess suicide risk, most positive responses are not associated with suicidality. The PHQ-8, which omits Item 9, is thus increasingly used in research. We assessed equivalency of total score correlations and the diagnostic accuracy to detect major depression of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9.
We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis. We fit bivariate random-effects models to assess diagnostic accuracy.
16 742 participants (2097 major depression cases) from 54 studies were included. The correlation between PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 scores was 0.996 (95% confidence interval 0.996 to 0.996). The standard cutoff score of 10 for the PHQ-9 maximized sensitivity + specificity for the PHQ-8 among studies that used a semi-structured diagnostic interview reference standard (N = 27). At cutoff 10, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive by 0.02 (−0.06 to 0.00) and more specific by 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) among those studies (N = 27), with similar results for studies that used other types of interviews (N = 27). For all 54 primary studies combined, across all cutoffs, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive than the PHQ-9 by 0.00 to 0.05 (0.03 at cutoff 10), and specificity was within 0.01 for all cutoffs (0.00 to 0.01).
PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 total scores were similar. Sensitivity may be minimally reduced with the PHQ-8, but specificity is similar.
This article explores the role played by electoral politics in the evolution of postwar growth regimes, understood as the economic and social policies used by governments of the developed democracies to pursue economic growth. It charts changes in growth regimes beginning with an era of modernization stretching from 1950 to 1975, through an era of liberalization running from 1980 to 2000, to a subsequent era of knowledge-based growth. Its overarching claim is that the inclination and capacities of democratic governments to pursue specific growth regimes depend not only on economic circumstances but also on evolving electoral conditions, marked especially by changes in the cleavages that condition partisan electoral strategies. This electoral dynamic affects the balance of influence over policy between actors in the electoral and producer-group arenas and carries implications for the social compromises that democracies can construct. The article concludes by exploring the implications of contemporary electoral politics for the development of growth regimes appropriate to a knowledge economy.
The short-term impact of prolonged grief disorder (PGD) following bereavement is well documented. The longer term sequelae of PGD however are poorly understood, possibly unrecognized, and may be incorrectly attributed to other mental health disorders and hence undertreated.
The aims of this study were to prospectively evaluate the prevalence of PGD three years post bereavement and to examine the predictors of long-term PGD in a population-based cohort of bereaved cancer caregivers.
A cohort of primary family caregivers of patients admitted to one of three palliative care services in Melbourne, Australia, participated in the study (n = 301). Sociodemographic, mental health, and bereavement-related data were collected from the caregiver upon the patient's admission to palliative care (T1). Further data addressing circumstances around the death and psychological health were collected at six (T2, n = 167), 13 (T3, n = 143), and 37 months (T4, n = 85) after bereavement.
At T4, 5% and 14% of bereaved caregivers met criteria for PGD and subthreshold PGD, respectively. Applying the total PGD score at T4, linear regression analysis found preloss anticipatory grief measured at T1 and self-reported coping measured at T2 were highly statistically significant predictors (both p < 0.0001) of PGD in the longer term.
For almost 20% of caregivers, the symptoms of PGD appear to persist at least three years post bereavement. These findings support the importance of screening caregivers upon the patient's admission to palliative care and at six months after bereavement to ascertain their current mental health. Ideally, caregivers at risk of developing PGD can be identified and treated before PGD becomes entrenched.
Although stochastic analysis has become the accepted standard for decision analytic cost effectiveness models, deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis continues to be used to meet the needs of decision makers to understand the impact that changing the value taken by one specific parameter has on the results of the analysis. However, there are a number of problems with this approach.
We review the reasons why deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis will provide decision makers with biased and incomplete information. We then describe a new method - stochastic one-way sensitivity analysis (SOWSA), and apply this to a previously published cost effectiveness analysis, to produce a stochastic tornado diagram and conditional incremental net benefit curve. We then discuss how these outputs should be interpreted and the potential barriers to the implementation of SOWSA.
The results illustrate the shortcomings of the current approaches to deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis. For SOWSA, the expected costs and outcomes are captured, along with the sampled value of the parameter and these are linked to the probability that the parameter takes that value – which can be read off the probability distribution for the parameter used in the stochastic analysis. From these results it is possible to gain insights into probability that a parameter will take a value that will change a decision.
Although a well-used technique, one-way deterministic sensitivity analysis has a number of shortcomings that may contribute to incorrect conclusions being drawn about the importance of certain parameter values on model results. By providing fuller information on uncertainty in model results, it is hoped that the methods here will lead to more informed decision making. Although, as with all developments in the presentation of analytic results to decision makers, care will be required to ensure that the decision makers understand the information provided to them.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The objective of this study is to use machine Learning techniques to generate maps of epithelium and lumen density in MRI space. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Methods: We prospectively recruited 39 patients undergoing prostatectomy for this institutional review board (IRB) approved study. Patients underwent MP-MRI before prostatectomy on a 3T field strength MRI scanner (General Electric, Waukesha, WI, USA) using an endorectal coil. MP-MRI included field-of-view optimized and constrained undistorted single shot (FOCUS) diffusion weighted imaging with 10 b-values (b=0, 10, 25, 50, 80, 100, 200, 500, 1000, and 2000), dynamic contrast enhanced imaging, and T2-weighted imaging. T2 weighted images were intensity normalized and apparent diffusion coefficient maps were calculated. The dynamic contrast enhanced data was used to calculate the percent change in signal intensity before and after contrast injection. All images were aligned to the T2 weighted image. Robotic prostatectomy was performed 2 weeks after image acquisition. Prostate samples were sliced using a 3D printed slicing jig matching the slice profile of the T2 weighted image. Whole mount samples at 10 μm thickness were taken, hematoxylin and eosin stained, digitized, and annotated by a board certified pathologist. A total of 210 slides were included in this study. Lumen and epithelium were automatically segmented using a custom algorithm written in MATLAB. The algorithm was validated by comparing manual to automatic segmentation on 18 samples. Slides were aligned with the T2 weighted image using a nonlinear control point warping technique. Lumen and epithelium density and the expert annotation were subsequently transformed into MRI space. Co-registration was validated by applying a known warp to tumor masks noted by the pathologist and control point warping the whole mount slide to match the transform. Overlap was measured using a DICE coefficient. A learning curve was generated to determine the optimal number of patients to train the algorithm on. A PLS algorithm was trained on 150 random permutations of patients incrementing from 1 to 29 patients. Slides were stratified such that all slides from a single patient were in the same cohort. Three cohorts were generated, with tumor burden balanced across all cohort. A PLS algorithm was trained on 2 independent training sets (cohorts 1 and 2) and applied to cohort 3. The input vector consisted of MRI values and the target variable was lumen and epithelium density. The algorithm was trained lesion-wise. Trained PiCT models were applied to the test cohort voxel-wise to generate 2 new image contrasts. Mean lesion values were compared between high grade, low grade, and healthy tissue using an ANOVA. An ROC analysis was performed lesion-wise on the test set. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results: The segmentation accuracy validation revealed R=0.99 and R=0.72 (p<0.001) for lumen and epithelium, respectively. The co-registration accuracy revealed a 94.5% overlap. The learning curve stabilized at 10 patients with a root mean square error of 0.14, thus the size of the 2 independent training cohorts was set to 10, leaving 19 for the test cohort. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: We present a technique for combining radiology and pathology with machine learning for generating predictive cytological topography (PiCT) maps of cellularity and lumen density prostate. The voxel-wise approach to mapping cellular features generates 2 new interpretable image contrasts, which can potentially increase confidence in diagnosis or guide biopsy and radiation treatment.
Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification.
To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics.
Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analysed and binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit.
A total of 17 158 participants (2287 with major depression) from 57 primary studies were analysed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.15–3.87). Compared with semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≤6) as having major depression (OR = 3.13; 95% CI = 0.98–10.00), similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7–15) (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.56–1.66) and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≥16) (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.26–0.97).
The MINI may identify more people as depressed than the CIDI, and semi-structured and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated.
Declaration of interest
Drs Jetté and Patten declare that they received a grant, outside the submitted work, from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute, which was jointly funded by the Institute and Pfizer. Pfizer was the original sponsor of the development of the PHQ-9, which is now in the public domain. Dr Chan is a steering committee member or consultant of Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Lilly, MSD and Pfizer. She has received sponsorships and honorarium for giving lectures and providing consultancy and her affiliated institution has received research grants from these companies. Dr Hegerl declares that within the past 3 years, he was an advisory board member for Lundbeck, Servier and Otsuka Pharma; a consultant for Bayer Pharma; and a speaker for Medice Arzneimittel, Novartis, and Roche Pharma, all outside the submitted work. Dr Inagaki declares that he has received grants from Novartis Pharma, lecture fees from Pfizer, Mochida, Shionogi, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo, Meiji Seika and Takeda, and royalties from Nippon Hyoron Sha, Nanzando, Seiwa Shoten, Igaku-shoin and Technomics, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Yamada reports personal fees from Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd., MSD K.K., Asahi Kasei Pharma Corporation, Seishin Shobo, Seiwa Shoten Co., Ltd., Igaku-shoin Ltd., Chugai Igakusha and Sentan Igakusha, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
We describe the design and performance of the Engineering Development Array, which is a low-frequency radio telescope comprising 256 dual-polarisation dipole antennas working as a phased array. The Engineering Development Array was conceived of, developed, and deployed in just 18 months via re-use of Square Kilometre Array precursor technology and expertise, specifically from the Murchison Widefield Array radio telescope. Using drift scans and a model for the sky brightness temperature at low frequencies, we have derived the Engineering Development Array’s receiver temperature as a function of frequency. The Engineering Development Array is shown to be sky-noise limited over most of the frequency range measured between 60 and 240 MHz. By using the Engineering Development Array in interferometric mode with the Murchison Widefield Array, we used calibrated visibilities to measure the absolute sensitivity of the array. The measured array sensitivity matches very well with a model based on the array layout and measured receiver temperature. The results demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of using Murchison Widefield Array-style precursor technology for Square Kilometre Array-scale stations. The modular architecture of the Engineering Development Array allows upgrades to the array to be rolled out in a staged approach. Future improvements to the Engineering Development Array include replacing the second stage beamformer with a fully digital system, and to transition to using RF-over-fibre for the signal output from first stage beamformers.
Provision of bereavement support is an essential component of palliative care service delivery. While bereavement support is integral to palliative care, it is typically insufficiently resourced, under-researched, and not systematically applied. Our aim was to develop bereavement standards to assist palliative care services to provide targeted support to family caregivers.
We employed a multiple-methods design for our study, which included: (1) a literature review, (2) a survey of palliative care service providers in Australia, (3) interviews with national (Australian) and international experts, (4) key stakeholder workshops, and (5) a modified Delphi-type survey.
A total of 10 standards were developed along with a pragmatic care pathway to assist palliative care services with implementation of the standards.
Significance of results:
The bereavement standards and care pathway constitute a key initiative in the evolution of bereavement support provided by palliative care services. Future endeavors should refine and examine the impact of these standards. Additional research is required to enhance systematic approaches to quality bereavement care.