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Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
Single-molecule localization microscopy (SMLM) is a family of super-resolution microscopy techniques based on localizing clusters of detected photons that are emitted by single molecules. The localization procedure is based on careful statistical analysis of long image sequences to derive the nanometer positions of the molecules. By introducing additional optics, such as cylindrical lenses in the optical system, SMLM techniques have been extended to 3D super-resolution imaging. This adds a calibration step, thereby further complicating the data analysis. Here we present Huygens Localizer, a well-supported user-friendly package that carries out these tasks quickly by offloading carefully designed 2D and 3D analysis and visualization procedures to massively parallel graphical processors (GPUs).
There is currently no standardized approach to collecting mass gathering health data, which makes comparisons across or between events challenging. From 2013 onward, an international team of researchers from Australia and Canada collaborated to develop a Minimum Data Set (MDS) for Mass Gathering Health (MGH).
The process of developing the MDS has been reported on previously at the 2015 and 2017 World Congresses on Disaster and Emergency Medicine, and this presentation will present a final MDS on MGH.
This study drew from literature, including the 2015 Public Health for Mass Gatherings key considerations, previous event/patient registry development, expert input, and the results of the team’s work. The authors developed an MDS framework with the aim to create an online MGH data repository. The framework was populated with an initial list of data elements using a modified Delphi technique.
The MDS includes the 41 data elements in the following domains: community characteristics, event characteristics, venue characteristics, crowd characteristics, event safety considerations, public health considerations, and health services. Also included are definitions and preliminary metadata.
The development of an MGH-MDS can grow the science underpinning this emerging field. Future input from the international community is essential to ensure that the proposed MDS is fit-for-purpose, i.e., systematic, comprehensive, and rigorous, while remaining fluid and relevant for various users and contexts.
The Pueblo population of Chaco Canyon during the Bonito Phase (AD 800–1130) employed agricultural strategies and water-management systems to enhance food cultivation in this unpredictable environment. Scepticism concerning the timing and effectiveness of this system, however, remains common. Using optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments and LiDAR imaging, the authors located Bonito Phase canal features at the far west end of the canyon. Additional ED-XRF and strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) analyses confirm the diversion of waters from multiple sources during Chaco’s occupation. The extent of this water-management system raises new questions about social organisation and the role of ritual in facilitating responses to environmental unpredictability.
Takayasu’s arteritis is a rare idiopathic arteritis causing stenosis or aneurysms of the aorta, pulmonary arteries, and their branches. It usually occurs in women, but has been described in children.
The objective of this study was to determine the clinical presentation, demographic profile, vascular involvement, origins, management, and outcome of children diagnosed with Takayasu’s arteritis at a Southern African tertiary care centre between 1993 and 2015.
This is a retrospective analysis of all children with Takayasu’s arteritis captured on a computerised electronic database during the study period.
A total of 55 children were identified. The female:male ratio was 3.2:1, and the mean age was 9.7±3.04 years. Most originated outside the provincial borders of the study centre. The majority presented with hypertension and heart failure. In all, 37 (67%) patients had a cardiomyopathy with a mean fractional shortening of 15±5%. A positive purified protein derivative test was documented in 73%. Abdominal aorta and renal artery stenosis were the predominant angiographic lesions. A total of 23 patients underwent 30 percutaneous interventions of the aorta, pulmonary, and renal arteries: eight stents, 22 balloon angioplasties, and seven had nephrectomies. All patients received empiric tuberculosis treatment, immunosuppressive therapy, and anti-hypertensive agents as required. Overall, there was a significant reduction in systolic blood pressure and improvement in fractional shortening (p<0.05) with all treatments.
Takayasu’s arteritis is more common in girls and frequently manifests with hypertension and heart failure. The abdominal aorta and renal arteries are mostly affected. Immunosuppressive, anti-hypertensive, and vascular intervention therapies improve blood pressure control and cardiac function.
Mass gatherings are common in Australia. The interplay of variables, including crowd density and behavior, weather, and the consumption of alcohol and other drugs, can pose a unique set of challenges to attendees’ well-being. On-site health services are available at most mass gatherings and reduce the strain on community health facilities. In order to efficiently plan and manage these services, it is important to be able to predict the number and type of presenting problems at mass gatherings.
There is a lack of reliable tools to predict patient presentations at mass gatherings. While a number of factors have been identified as having an influence on attendees’ health, the exact contribution of these variables to patient load is poorly understood. Furthermore, predicting patient load at mass gatherings is an inherently nonlinear problem, due to the nonlinear relationships previously observed between patient presentations and many event characteristics.
Data were collected at 216 Australian mass gatherings and included event type, crowd demographics, and weather. Nonlinear models were constructed using regression trees. The full data set was used to construct each model and the model was then used to predict the response variable for each event. Nine-fold cross validation was used to estimate the error that may be expected when applying the model in practice.
The mean training errors for total patient presentations were very high; however, the distribution of errors per event was highly skewed, with small errors for the majority of events and a few large errors for a small number of events with a high number of presentations. The error was five or less for 40% of events and 15 or less for 85% of events. The median error was 6.9 presentations per event.
This study built on previous research by undertaking nonlinear modeling, which provides a more realistic representation of the interactions between event variables. The developed models were less useful for predicting patient presentation numbers for very large events; however, they were generally useful for more typical, smaller scale community events. Further research is required to confirm this conclusion and develop models suitable for very large international events.
Arbon P, Bottema M, Zeitz K, Lund A, Turris S, Anikeeva O, Steenkamp M. Nonlinear modelling for predicting patient presentation rates for mass gatherings. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):362–367
The deep subsurface of other planetary bodies is of special interest for robotic and human exploration. The subsurface provides access to planetary interior processes, thus yielding insights into planetary formation and evolution. On Mars, the subsurface might harbour the most habitable conditions. In the context of human exploration, the subsurface can provide refugia for habitation from extreme surface conditions. We describe the fifth Mine Analogue Research (MINAR 5) programme at 1 km depth in the Boulby Mine, UK in collaboration with Spaceward Bound NASA and the Kalam Centre, India, to test instruments and methods for the robotic and human exploration of deep environments on the Moon and Mars. The geological context in Permian evaporites provides an analogue to evaporitic materials on other planetary bodies such as Mars. A wide range of sample acquisition instruments (NASA drills, Small Planetary Impulse Tool (SPLIT) robotic hammer, universal sampling bags), analytical instruments (Raman spectroscopy, Close-Up Imager, Minion DNA sequencing technology, methane stable isotope analysis, biomolecule and metabolic life detection instruments) and environmental monitoring equipment (passive air particle sampler, particle detectors and environmental monitoring equipment) was deployed in an integrated campaign. Investigations included studying the geochemical signatures of chloride and sulphate evaporitic minerals, testing methods for life detection and planetary protection around human-tended operations, and investigations on the radiation environment of the deep subsurface. The MINAR analogue activity occurs in an active mine, showing how the development of space exploration technology can be used to contribute to addressing immediate Earth-based challenges. During the campaign, in collaboration with European Space Agency (ESA), MINAR was used for astronaut familiarization with future exploration tools and techniques. The campaign was used to develop primary and secondary school and primary to secondary transition curriculum materials on-site during the campaign which was focused on a classroom extra vehicular activity simulation.
Mass gatherings are complex events that present a unique set of challenges to attendees’ health and well-being. There are numerous factors that influence the number and type of injuries and illnesses that occur at these events, including weather, event and venue type, and crowd demographics and behavior.
While the impact of some factors, such as weather conditions and the availability of alcohol, on patient presentations at mass gatherings have been described previously, the influence of many other variables, including crowd demographics, crowd behavior, and event type, is poorly understood. Furthermore, a large number of studies reporting on the influence of these variables on patient presentations are based on anecdotal evidence at a single mass-gathering event.
Data were collected by trained fieldworkers at 15 mass gatherings in South Australia and included event characteristics, crowd demographics, and weather. De-identified patient records were obtained from on-site health care providers. Data analysis included the calculation of patient proportions in each variable category, as well as the total number of patient presentations per event and the patient presentation rate (PPR).
The total number of expected attendees at the 15 mass gatherings was 303,500, of which 146 presented to on-site health care services. The majority of patient presentations occurred at events with a mean temperature between 20°C and 25°C. The PPR was more than double at events with a predominantly male crowd compared to events with a more equal sex distribution. Almost 90.0% of patient presentations occurred at events where alcohol was available.
The results of the study suggest that several weather, crowd, and event variables influence the type and number of patient presentations observed at mass-gathering events. Given that the study sample size did not allow for these interactions to be quantified, further research is warranted to investigate the relationships between alcohol availability, crowd demographics, crowd mobility, venue design, and injuries and illnesses.
Anikeeva O, Arbon P, Zeitz K, Bottema M, Lund A, Turris S, Steenkamp M. Patient presentation trends at 15 mass-gathering events in South Australia. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):368–374.
Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification.
To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics.
Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analysed and binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit.
A total of 17 158 participants (2287 with major depression) from 57 primary studies were analysed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.15–3.87). Compared with semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≤6) as having major depression (OR = 3.13; 95% CI = 0.98–10.00), similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7–15) (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.56–1.66) and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≥16) (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.26–0.97).
The MINI may identify more people as depressed than the CIDI, and semi-structured and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated.
Declaration of interest
Drs Jetté and Patten declare that they received a grant, outside the submitted work, from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute, which was jointly funded by the Institute and Pfizer. Pfizer was the original sponsor of the development of the PHQ-9, which is now in the public domain. Dr Chan is a steering committee member or consultant of Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Lilly, MSD and Pfizer. She has received sponsorships and honorarium for giving lectures and providing consultancy and her affiliated institution has received research grants from these companies. Dr Hegerl declares that within the past 3 years, he was an advisory board member for Lundbeck, Servier and Otsuka Pharma; a consultant for Bayer Pharma; and a speaker for Medice Arzneimittel, Novartis, and Roche Pharma, all outside the submitted work. Dr Inagaki declares that he has received grants from Novartis Pharma, lecture fees from Pfizer, Mochida, Shionogi, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo, Meiji Seika and Takeda, and royalties from Nippon Hyoron Sha, Nanzando, Seiwa Shoten, Igaku-shoin and Technomics, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Yamada reports personal fees from Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd., MSD K.K., Asahi Kasei Pharma Corporation, Seishin Shobo, Seiwa Shoten Co., Ltd., Igaku-shoin Ltd., Chugai Igakusha and Sentan Igakusha, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
The concurrent ageing of parental care-givers and people with intellectual disabilities is driving academic and social welfare concern for a post-parental care ‘crisis’. The ‘crisis’ typically pertains to a transition from primary care in the family home precipitated by the death or incapacity of older parents without a pre-planned pathway to post-parental care. This crisis is amplified in rural communities given low service engagement with families and a deficit of disability-supported accommodation and services. Academics, service providers and policy makers have responded through a problematisation of post-parental care planning. This focus continues to normalise informal care, burdens families with responsibility for planning, and diverts attention from structural deficits in the socio-political carescape. This paper attends to the Australian policy landscape in which long-term care-giving for families living with intellectual disability is enmeshed. It contends that the dyadic and didactic model of informal long-term care has profound implications for social service support and post-parental care planning. Problematisation of carers’ ‘need’ to relinquish primary care and for people with intellectual disabilities to transition to independent and supported living is necessary to unsettle the dominant policy and service discourse around the provision of services to sustain informal care-giving. Innovation is then needed to forge pathways of support for families in rural communities planning on continuing, transitioning and transforming care arrangements across the lifespan.
Violators of cooperation norms may be informally punished by their peers. How such norm enforcement is judged by others can be regarded as a meta-norm (i.e., a second-order norm). We examined whether meta-norms about peer punishment vary across cultures by having students in eight countries judge animations in which an agent who over-harvested a common resource was punished either by a single peer or by the entire peer group. Whether the punishment was retributive or restorative varied between two studies, and findings were largely consistent across these two types of punishment. Across all countries, punishment was judged as more appropriate when implemented by the entire peer group than by an individual. Differences between countries were revealed in judgments of punishers vs. non-punishers. Specifically, appraisals of punishers were relatively negative in three Western countries and Japan, and more neutral in Pakistan, UAE, Russia, and China, consistent with the influence of individualism, power distance, and/or indulgence. Our studies constitute a first step in mapping how meta-norms vary around the globe, demonstrating both cultural universals and cultural differences.
Whether monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins differ from each other in a variety of phenotypes is important for genetic twin modeling and for inferences made from twin studies in general. We analyzed whether there were differences in individual, maternal and paternal education between MZ and DZ twins in a large pooled dataset. Information was gathered on individual education for 218,362 adult twins from 27 twin cohorts (53% females; 39% MZ twins), and on maternal and paternal education for 147,315 and 143,056 twins respectively, from 28 twin cohorts (52% females; 38% MZ twins). Together, we had information on individual or parental education from 42 twin cohorts representing 19 countries. The original education classifications were transformed to education years and analyzed using linear regression models. Overall, MZ males had 0.26 (95% CI [0.21, 0.31]) years and MZ females 0.17 (95% CI [0.12, 0.21]) years longer education than DZ twins. The zygosity difference became smaller in more recent birth cohorts for both males and females. Parental education was somewhat longer for fathers of DZ twins in cohorts born in 1990–1999 (0.16 years, 95% CI [0.08, 0.25]) and 2000 or later (0.11 years, 95% CI [0.00, 0.22]), compared with fathers of MZ twins. The results show that the years of both individual and parental education are largely similar in MZ and DZ twins. We suggest that the socio-economic differences between MZ and DZ twins are so small that inferences based upon genetic modeling of twin data are not affected.
Next-generation 21cm observations will enable imaging of reionization on very large scales. These images will contain more astrophysical and cosmological information than the power spectrum, and hence providing an alternative way to constrain the contribution of different reionizing sources populations to cosmic reionization. Using Convolutional Neural Networks, we present a simple network architecture that is sufficient to discriminate between Galaxy-dominated versus AGN-dominated models, even in the presence of simulated noise from different experiments such as the HERA and SKA.
Soft X-ray spectro-tomography provides three-dimensional (3D) chemical mapping based on natural X-ray absorption properties. Since radiation damage is intrinsic to X-ray absorption, it is important to find ways to maximize signal within a given dose. For tomography, using the smallest number of tilt series images that gives a faithful reconstruction is one such method. Compressed sensing (CS) methods have relatively recently been applied to tomographic reconstruction algorithms, providing faithful 3D reconstructions with a much smaller number of projection images than when conventional reconstruction methods are used. Here, CS is applied in the context of scanning transmission X-ray microscopy tomography. Reconstructions by weighted back-projection, the simultaneous iterative reconstruction technique, and CS are compared. The effects of varying tilt angle increment and angular range for the tomographic reconstructions are examined. Optimization of the regularization parameter in the CS reconstruction is explored and discussed. The comparisons show that CS can provide improved reconstruction fidelity relative to weighted back-projection and simultaneous iterative reconstruction techniques, with increasingly pronounced advantages as the angular sampling is reduced. In particular, missing wedge artifacts are significantly reduced and there is enhanced recovery of sharp edges. Examples of using CS for low-dose scanning transmission X-ray microscopy spectroscopic tomography are presented.
To determine the scope, source, and mode of transmission of a multifacility outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Acinetobacter baumannii.
SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS
Residents and patients in skilled nursing facilities, long-term acute-care hospital, and acute-care hospitals.
A case was defined as the incident isolate from clinical or surveillance cultures of XDR Acinetobacter baumannii resistant to imipenem or meropenem and nonsusceptible to all but 1 or 2 antibiotic classes in a patient in an Oregon healthcare facility during January 2012–December 2014. We queried clinical laboratories, reviewed medical records, oversaw patient and environmental surveillance surveys at 2 facilities, and recommended interventions. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and molecular analysis were performed.
We identified 21 cases, highly related by PFGE or healthcare facility exposure. Overall, 17 patients (81%) were admitted to either long-term acute-care hospital A (n=8), or skilled nursing facility A (n=8), or both (n=1) prior to XDR A. baumannii isolation. Interfacility communication of patient or resident XDR status was not performed during transfer between facilities. The rare plasmid-encoded carbapenemase gene blaOXA-237 was present in 16 outbreak isolates. Contact precautions, chlorhexidine baths, enhanced environmental cleaning, and interfacility communication were implemented for cases to halt transmission.
Interfacility transmission of XDR A. baumannii carrying the rare blaOXA-237 was facilitated by transfer of affected patients without communication to receiving facilities.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Clinical guidelines recommend using predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. The objective was to compare the contribution of changes in modifiable risk factors Versus aging to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Prospective follow-up of the Jackson Heart Study, an exclusively African-American cohort, at visit 1 (2000–2004) and visit 3 (2009–2012). Analyses included 1115 African-American participants without a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk (<7.5%), hypertension, diabetes, or ASCVD at visit 1. We used the Pooled Cohort equations to calculate the incidence of high (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3. We recalculated the percentage with a high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 assuming each risk factor [age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol], one at a time, did not change from visit 1. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The mean age at visit 1 was 45.2±9.5 years. Overall, 30.9% (95% CI 28.3%–33.4%) of participants developed high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. Aging accounted for 59.7% (95% CI 54.2%–65.1%) of the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk compared with 32.8% (95% CI 27.0%–38.2%) for increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation and 12.8% (95% CI 9.6%–16.5%) for incident diabetes. Among participants <50 years, the contribution of increases in SBP or antihypertensive medication initiation was similar to aging. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Increases in SBP and antihypertensive medication initiation are major contributors to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk in African Americans, particularly among younger adults.