Some UK insurers have been using real-world economic scenarios for more than 30 years. Popular approaches have included random walks, time series models, arbitrage-free models with added risk premiums or 1-year Value at Risk distribution fits. Based on interviews with experienced practitioners as well as historical documents and meeting minutes, this paper traces historical model evolution in the United Kingdom and abroad. We examine the possible catalysts for changes in modelling practice with a particular emphasis on regulatory and socio-cultural influences. We apply past lessons to provide some guidance to the direction of capital market modelling in future, which has been key for business and strategy decisions.

Inefficiencies in the national clinical research infrastructure have been apparent for decades. The National Center for Advancing Translational Science—sponsored Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) program is able to address such inefficiencies. The Trial Innovation Network (TIN) is a collaborative initiative with the CTSA program and other National Institutes of Health (NIH) Institutes and Centers that addresses critical roadblocks to accelerate the translation of novel interventions to clinical practice. The TIN’s mission is to execute high-quality trials in a quick, cost-efficient manner. The TIN awardees are composed of 3 Trial Innovation Centers, the Recruitment Innovation Center, and the individual CTSA institutions that have identified TIN Liaison units. The TIN has launched a national scale single (central) Institutional Review Board system, master contracting agreements, quality-by-design approaches, novel recruitment support methods, and applies evidence-based strategies to recruitment and patient engagement. The TIN has received 113 submissions from 39 different CTSA institutions and 8 non-CTSA Institutions, with projects associated with 12 different NIH Institutes and Centers across a wide range of clinical/disease areas. Already more than 150 unique health systems/organizations are involved as sites in TIN-related multisite studies. The TIN will begin to capture data and metrics that quantify increased efficiency and quality improvement during operations.

A foundational principle and practice for translational research is active participation of a range of disciplines, referred to as “team science.” It is increasingly apparent that to be relevant and impactful, these teams must also include stakeholders outside the usual academic research community, such as patients, communities, and not-for- and for-profit organizations. To emphasize the need to link the practices of team science and of community-engaged research, we propose a framework that has community members and stakeholders as integral members of the research team, which we term, “broadly engaged team science.” Such transdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder teams will be best suited to pose translational research questions, conduct the research, and interpret and disseminate the results. We think this will generate important and impactful science, and will support the public’s regard for, and participation in, research.

The primary causative agent of eosinophilic meningoencephalitis (EoM) in endemic regions is the nematode Angiostrongylus cantonensis. The occurrence of EoM was previously restricted to countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands; however, more recently, it has been reported from other regions, including Brazil. The commonly used diagnosis is detection of specific antibody reactivity to the 31 kDa antigen, which is derived from female worm somatic extracts. Here we report the occurrence of cross-reactivity to this antigen in sera from other parasitic infections, especially those that may cause EoM, such as gnathostomiasis, toxocariasis, hydatidosis and strongyloidiasis. We also demonstrated that the cross-reactivity, in part, is dependent of the concentration of antigen used in Western blot assays. We discuss the importance of these findings on the interpretation of this test.

This paper is a report from the Extreme Events Working Party. The paper considers some of the difficulties in calculating capital buffers to cover potential losses. This paper considers the reasons why a purely mechanical approach to calculating capital buffers may bot be possible or justified. A range of tools and techniques is presented to help address some of the difficulties identified.

Angiostrongylus cantonensis is a parasitic nematode of rodents and a leading aetiological agent of eosinophilic meningitis in humans. Definitive diagnosis is difficult, often relying on immunodiagnostic methods which utilize crude antigens. New immunodiagnostic methods based on recombinant proteins are being developed, and ideally these methods would be made available worldwide. Identification of diagnostic targets, as well as studies on the biology of the parasite, are limited by a lack of molecular information on Angiostrongylus spp. available in databases. In this study we present data collected from DNA random high-throughput sequencing together with proteomic analyses and a cDNA walking methodology to identify and obtain the nucleotide or amino acid sequences of unknown immunoreactive proteins. 28 080 putative ORFs were obtained, of which 3371 had homology to other deposited protein sequences. Using the A. cantonensis genomic sequences, 156 putative ORFs, matching peptide sequences obtained from previous proteomic studies, were considered novel, with no homology to existing sequences. Full-length coding sequences of eight antigenic target proteins were obtained. In this study we generated not only the complete nucleotide sequences of the antigenic protein targets but also a large amount of genomic data which may help facilitate future genomic, proteomic, transcriptomic or metabolomic studies on Angiostrongylus.

The nickel-aluminum (Ni/Al) intermetallic system is useful for a variety of reactive material applications, and reaction characteristics are well studied at the normal self-heating rates of 103–106 K/s. Recent experiments at 1011–1012 K/s have measured the kinetic energy of material ejected from the reaction zone, indicating additional kinetic energy from the reactive system despite high heating rates. In order to better probe reaction phenomena at these time scales, and determine the presence of expected elements and their temperatures, we report on emission spectroscopy of electrically heated, patterned Ni/Al bridge wires, time resolved over 350 ns through the use of a streak camera. Unlike previous studies where emission was dominated by Ar and N from residual gasses in the vacuum test chamber, here we report on experiments with encapsulated laminates allowing better quantification of Al and Ni emission. We were able to identify all major spectral lines from the dominant elements present in the films, and found the multilayered Ni/Al laminates to exhibit a brighter and longer duration emission than either Al or Ni control samples. We also found the measured electrical energy absorption of the Ni/Al laminates to follow that of the Al samples up to 150 ns following the onset of emission, indicating that the exothermic mixing of vapor phase Ni and Al was the most likely source for the higher emission intensity. These results will be important for new, energetically enhanced, high efficiency bridge wire applications, where shock initiation of subsequent energetic reactions may be accomplished with less electrical energy than is currently required.

In President Obama's words, the Democratic Party experienced a “shellacking” in the 2010 elections. In particular, the net loss of 63 House seats was the biggest midterm loss suffered by a party since 1938—the largest in the lifetimes of approximately 93% of the American population.

Study of relevant types has led to the conclusion that Gagea kunawurensis (Royle) Greuter (Liliaceae) is the correct name for what has recently been known as G. stipitata Merckl. ex Bunge; that G. gageoides (Zucc.) Vved. is the correct name for G. persica Boiss., and that G. kashmirensis Turrill should be reduced to synonymy of G. tenera Pascher. Anatomical and morphological data are presented for these and the related species Gagea dschungarica Regel and G. afghanica A.Terracc., and a key given to allow their discrimination.

The potential value of oral erythromycin for antitetanus prophylaxis in non-immune patients with open wounds was assessed. Serum obtained by venepuncture from healthy persons 2 h after an oral dose of an erythromycin preparation was used as a culture medium rendered anaerobic by addition of cooked meat. Strains of Clostridium tetani inoculated into these sera failed to multiply when the donor had taken 500 mg of erythromycin estolate before a meal; other erythromycin preparations and the estolate at a dosage of 250 mg were ineffective or inconsistent in their inhibition of the growth of Cl. tetani.

Human antitetanus globulin (ATG) was given to 12 patients, 9 with severe injuries and 3 with extensive burns, all of whom were judged, from their history, to be non-immune (or with expired immunity); all except one had received large intravenous infusions of blood and/or other fluids. Serum antitoxin assays by a mouse protection technique on days 0, 1–2, 3–5, 6–10 and 14 + showed no detectable antitoxin (< 0·01) unit/ml) in the initial (pre-ATG) sample from three patients with severe injuries and in one with extensive burns. All the patients in the severely injured group showed an early appearance or increase in tetanus antitoxin to protective titres. Two of the three severely burned patients showed, respectively, delayed appearance or an increase in antitoxin; the other burned patients showed a reduction from the initial pre-ATG titre, followed by a return to that titre after day 5.

The aerodynamics of insect-like flapping are dominated by the production of a large, stable, and lift-enhancing leading-edge vortex (LEV) above the wing. In this paper the phenomenology behind the LEV is explored, the reasons for its stability are investigated, and the effects on the LEV of changing Reynolds number or angle-of-attack are studied. A predominantly-computational method has been used, validated against both existing and new experimental data. It is concluded that the LEV is stable over the entire range of Reynolds numbers investigated here and that changes in angle-of-attack do not affect the LEV’s stability. The primary motivation of the current work is to ascertain whether insect-like flapping can be successfully ‘scaled up’ to produce a flapping-wing micro air vehicle (FMAV) and the results presented here suggest that this should be the case.

A cross-sectional field study was performed to evaluate infection in dogs and cats living on farms with Mycobacterium bovis-infected cattle. The purpose was to determine pet infection status and assess their risk to farm families and/or tuberculosis-free livestock. Data and specimens were collected from 18 cats and five dogs from nine participating farms. ELISA testing for M. bovis and M. avium was conducted. Fifty-one biological samples were cultured; all were negative for M. bovis, although other Mycobacterium species were recovered. No radiographic, serological or skin test evidence of mycobacterial infection was found. These negative results may be due to the low level of M. bovis infection in the cattle and the limited duration of exposure of pets to infected cattle residing on the same farm. No evidence was found to indicate that pets residing on M. bovis-infected Michigan cattle farms pose a risk to humans or M. bovis-free livestock; however, precautionary advice for farm owners was provided.

This paper was written by the Derivatives Working Party, a permanent working party of the Life Research Committee of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. Our aim is to consider how life assurers may use, or may wish to use, derivatives, and if their use is unduly constrained, e.g. by regulation. This paper focuses on credit derivatives. We provide an overview of the credit derivatives market, and the strong growth in this market over recent years. We then focus on the two main traded credit derivative instruments — Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) and Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs). We explain how these instruments work and are priced, and clarify some of the more complex topics involved, such as the settlement of CDSs, basis risk and the relevance of implied correlation in pricing CDOs. We then consider how life insurers could make use of credit derivatives, for example to provide more efficient investment management in taking exposure to credit risk, or to hedge credit exposures, and consider the regulatory implications of so doing. Finally, in the Appendix, we discuss the credit spread puzzle, and the existence or otherwise of a liquidity premium in corporate bond spreads, with implications for the valuation of illiquid liabilities.