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The net benefit from investing in any technology is a function of the cost of implementation and the expected return in revenue. The objective of the present study was to quantify, using deterministic equations, the net monetary benefit from investing in genotyping of commercial females. Three case studies were presented reflecting dairy cows, beef cows and ewes based on Irish population parameters; sensitivity analyses were also performed. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analyses included the accuracy of genomic evaluations, replacement rate, proportion of female selection candidates retained as replacements, the cost of genotyping, the sire parentage error rate and the age of the female when it first gave birth. Results were presented as an annualised monetary net benefit over the lifetime of an individual, after discounting for the timing of expressions. In the base scenarios, the net benefit was greatest for dairy, followed by beef and then sheep. The net benefit improved as the reliability of the genomic evaluations improved and, in fact, a negative net benefit of genotyping was less frequent when the reliability of the genomic evaluations was high. The impact of a 10% point increase in genomic reliability was, however, greatest in sheep, followed by beef and then dairy. The net benefit of genotyping female selection candidates reduced as replacement rate increased. As genotyping costs increased, the net benefit reduced irrespective of the percentage of selection candidates kept, the replacement rate or even the population considered. Nonetheless, the association between the genotyping cost and the net benefit of genotyping differed by the percentage of selection candidates kept. Across all replacement rates evaluated, retaining 25% of the selection candidates resulted in the greatest net benefit when genotyping cost was low but the lowest net benefit when genotyping cost was high. Genotyping breakeven cost was non-linearly associated with the percentage of selection candidates retained, reaching a maximum when 50% of selection candidates were retained, irrespective of replacement rate, genomic reliability or the population. The genotyping breakeven cost was also non-linearly associated with replacement rate. The approaches outlined within provide the back-end framework for a decision support tool to quantify the net benefit of genotyping, once parameterised by the relevant population metrics.
Radiocarbon (14C) analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) provides unique information on the age, turnover and source of this important greenhouse gas, raising the prospect of novel scientific investigations into a range of natural and anthropogenic processes. To achieve these measurements, cartridges containing zeolite molecular sieves are a reliable and convenient method for collecting CO2 samples. At the NERC Radiocarbon Facility (East Kilbride) we have been refining our molecular sieve methods for over twenty years to achieve high-quality, reproducible and precise measurements. At the same time, we have been developing novel field sampling methods to expand the possibilities in collecting gas from the atmosphere, soil respiration and aquatic environments. Here, we present our latest improvements to cartridge design and procedures. We provide the results of tests used to verify the methods using known 14C content standards, demonstrating reliability for sample volumes of 3 mL CO2 (STP; 1.6 mg C) collected in cartridges that had been prepared at least three months earlier. We also report the results of quality assurance standards processed over the last two years, with results for 22 out of 23 international 14C standards being within measurement uncertainty of consensus values. We describe our latest automated procedures for the preparation of cartridges prior to use.
Non-communicable diseases are projected to become the most common causes of death in Africa by 2030. The impact on health of epidemiological and nutritional transitions in sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. To assess the trends of dietary fatty acids over time in Uganda, we examined fatty acids in serum collected from individuals in rural south-west Uganda, at three time points over two decades. Independent cross-sectional samples of 915 adults and children were selected from the general population cohort in 1990 (n 281), 2000 (n 283) and 2008 (n 351). Serum phospholipid fatty acids were measured by GC. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to compare the geometric means of fatty acids by time period. Serum fatty acid profiling showed high proportions of SFA, cis-MUFA and industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA), likely to be biomarkers of high consumption of palm oil and hydrogenated fats. In contrast, proportions of n-6 and n-3 PUFA from vegetable oils and fish were low. From 1990 to 2008, serum phospholipids showed increases in absolute amounts of SFA (17·3 % increase in adults and 26·4 % in children), MUFA (16·7 % increase in adults and 16·8 % in children) and n-6:n-3 PUFA (40·1 % increase in adults and 39·8 % in children). The amount of elaidic acid, iTFA from hydrogenated fats, increased in children (60·1 % increase). In this rural Ugandan population, we show evidence of unfavourable trends over time of dietary fatty acids.
impurities in magnetic-confinement devices are prone to develop density variations on the flux surface, which can significantly affect their transport. In this paper, we generalize earlier analytic stellarator calculations of the neoclassical radial impurity flux in the mixed-collisionality regime (collisional impurities and low-collisionality bulk ions) to include the effect of such flux-surface variations. We find that only in the homogeneous density case is the transport of highly collisional impurities (in the Pfirsch–Schlüter regime) independent of the radial electric field. We study these effects for a Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) vacuum field, with simple analytic models for the potential perturbation, under the assumption that the impurity density is given by a Boltzmann response to a perturbed potential. In the W7-X case studied, we find that larger amplitude potential perturbations cause the radial electric field to dominate the transport of the impurities. In addition, we find that classical impurity transport can be larger than the neoclassical transport in W7-X.
The accumulation of impurities in the core of magnetically confined plasmas, resulting from standard collisional transport mechanisms, is a known threat to their performance as fusion energy sources. Whilst the axisymmetric tokamak systems have been shown to benefit from the effect of temperature screening, that is an outward flux of impurities driven by the temperature gradient, impurity accumulation in stellarators was thought to be inevitable, driven robustly by the inward pointing electric field characteristic of hot fusion plasmas. We have shown in Helander et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 118, 2017a, 155002) that such screening can in principle also appear in stellarators, in the experimentally relevant mixed collisionality regime, where a highly collisional impurity species is present in a low collisionality bulk plasma. Details of the analytic calculation are presented here, along with the effect of the impurity on the bulk ion flow, which will ultimately affect the bulk contribution to the bootstrap current.
The bootstrap current and flow velocity of a low-collisionality stellarator plasma are calculated. As far as possible, the analysis is carried out in a uniform way across all low-collisionality regimes in general stellarator geometry, assuming only that the confinement is good enough that the plasma is approximately in local thermodynamic equilibrium. It is found that conventional expressions for the ion flow speed and bootstrap current in the low-collisionality limit are accurate only in the
-collisionality regime and need to be modified in the
-regime. The correction due to finite collisionality is also discussed and is found to scale as
No existing models of alcohol prevention concurrently adopt universal and selective approaches. This study aims to evaluate the first combined universal and selective approach to alcohol prevention.
A total of 26 Australian schools with 2190 students (mean age: 13.3 years) were randomized to receive: universal prevention (Climate Schools); selective prevention (Preventure); combined prevention (Climate Schools and Preventure; CAP); or health education as usual (control). Primary outcomes were alcohol use, binge drinking and alcohol-related harms at 6, 12 and 24 months.
Climate, Preventure and CAP students demonstrated significantly lower growth in their likelihood to drink and binge drink, relative to controls over 24 months. Preventure students displayed significantly lower growth in their likelihood to experience alcohol harms, relative to controls. While adolescents in both the CAP and Climate groups demonstrated slower growth in drinking compared with adolescents in the control group over the 2-year study period, CAP adolescents demonstrated faster growth in drinking compared with Climate adolescents.
Findings support universal, selective and combined approaches to alcohol prevention. Particularly novel are the findings of no advantage of the combined approach over universal or selective prevention alone.
Epstein Barr virus (EBV) infects 95% of the global population and is associated with up to 2% of cancers globally. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels to EBV have been shown to be heritable and associated with developing malignancies. We, therefore, performed a pilot genome-wide association analysis of anti-EBV IgG traits in an African population, using a combined approach including array genotyping, whole-genome sequencing and imputation to a panel with African sequence data. In 1562 Ugandans, we identify a variant in human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQA1, rs9272371 (p = 2.6 × 10−17) associated with anti-EBV nuclear antigen-1 responses. Trans-ancestry meta-analysis and fine-mapping with European-ancestry individuals suggest the presence of distinct HLA class II variants driving associations in Uganda. In addition, we identify four putative, novel, very rare African-specific loci with preliminary evidence for association with anti-viral capsid antigen IgG responses which will require replication for validation. These findings reinforce the need for the expansion of such studies in African populations with relevant datasets to capture genetic diversity.
Pulse arrival time measurements allow the determination of accurate pulsar periods, period derivatives and, provided the data span is at least one year, precise pulsar positions. If observations are frequent and reasonably regular, irregularities in the period can also be investigated. To minimize the effect of possible variations in dispersion measure, it is important that these observations be made at a relatively high frequency, preferably above 1 GHz. To eliminate pulse shape variations due to variable ionospheric Faraday
rotation, the pulse total intensity or one of the circular polarizations must be recorded.
With the changing distribution of infectious diseases, and an increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases, low- and middle-income countries, including those in Africa, will need to expand their health care capacities to effectively respond to these epidemiological transitions. The interrelated risk factors for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases and the need for long-term disease management, argue for combined strategies to understand their underlying causes and to design strategies for effective prevention and long-term care. Through multidisciplinary research and implementation partnerships, we advocate an integrated approach for research and healthcare for chronic diseases in Africa.
Epidemiological data regarding group A streptococcal (GAS) infections in South East Asia are scarce with no information from Laos. We characterized emm types, emm clusters and the antibiotic resistance profile of 124 GAS isolates recovered in Laos during 2004–2013. Most strains were recovered from skin and invasive infections (76% and 19%, respectively). Thirty-four emm types were identified as belonging to 12 emm clusters and no novel emm types were identified. No significant differences were observed in the distribution of emm types or emm clusters according to age or site of recovery (skin or invasive infections). There was moderate strain diversity in this country but considerable differences in emm-type distribution between Laos, Thailand and Cambodia. Vaccine coverage was high for the J8 vaccine candidate. The theoretical coverage for the 30-valent vaccine candidate needs further investigation. Antibiotic resistance was moderate to erythromycin and chloramphenicol (8% and 7%, respectively) and low to ofloxacin (<1%).
Most empirical studies into the covariance structure of psychopathology have been confined to adults. This work is not developmentally informed as the meaning, age-of-onset, persistence and expression of disorders differ across the lifespan. This study investigates the underlying structure of adolescent psychopathology and associations between the psychopathological dimensions and sex and personality risk profiles for substance misuse and mental health problems.
This study analyzed data from 2175 adolescents aged 13.3 years. Five dimensional models were tested using confirmatory factor analysis and the external validity was examined using a multiple-indicators multiple-causes model.
A modified bifactor model, with three correlated specific factors (internalizing, externalizing, thought disorder) and one general psychopathology factor, provided the best fit to the data. Females reported higher mean levels of internalizing, and males reported higher mean levels of externalizing. No significant sex differences emerged in liability to thought disorder or general psychopathology. Liability to internalizing, externalizing, thought disorder and general psychopathology was characterized by a number of differences in personality profiles.
This study is the first to identify a bifactor model including a specific thought disorder factor. The findings highlight the utility of transdiagnostic treatment approaches and the importance of restructuring psychopathology in an empirically based manner.
We have mapped cold atomic gas in 21cm line H i self-absorption (HISA) at arcminute resolution over more than 90% of the Milky Way's disk. To probe the formation of H2 clouds, we have compared our HISA distribution with CO J = 1-0 line emission. Few HISA features in the outer Galaxy have CO at the same position and velocity, while most inner-Galaxy HISA has overlapping CO. But many apparent inner-Galaxy HISA-CO associations can be explained as chance superpositions, so most inner-Galaxy HISA may also be CO-free. Since standard equilibrium cloud models cannot explain the very cold H i in many HISA features without molecules being present, these clouds may instead have significant CO-dark H2.
This book addresses maritime piracy by focusing on the unique and fascinating issues arising in the course of domestic piracy prosecutions, from the pursuit and apprehension of pirates to their trial and imprisonment. It examines novel matters not addressed in other published works, such as the challenges in preserving and presenting evidence in piracy trials, the rights of pirate defendants, and contending with alleged pirates who are juveniles. A more thorough understanding of modern piracy trials and the precedent they have established is critical to scholars, practitioners, and the broader community interested in counter-piracy efforts, as these prosecutions are likely to be the primary judicial mechanism to contend with pirate activity going forward.