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This paper explores dependencies between operational risks and between operational risks and other risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. The paper starts by setting the regulatory context and then goes into practical aspects of operational risk dependencies. Next, methods of modelling operational risk dependencies are considered with a simulation study exploring the sensitivity of diversification benefits arising from dependency models. The following two sections consider how correlation assumptions may be set, highlighting some generic dependencies between operational risks and with non-operational risks to assist in the assessment of dependencies and correlation assumptions. Supplementary appendices provide further detail on generic dependencies as well as a case study of how business models can lead to operational risks interacting with other risks. Finally, the paper finishes with a literature review of operational risk dependency papers including correlation studies and benchmark reports.
The effects of shape and thickness of a tin surface layer and of the energy of a 170 ps neodymium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet laser pulse on the conversion efficiency (CE) into extreme ultraviolet emission in the 13.5 nm region is investigated. Whereas a CE of up to 1.16% into the 2% reflection band of multilayer Mo/Si optics was measured for a bulk Sn target at a laser energy of 25 mJ, significant CE enhancement up to 1.49% is demonstrated for a 200-nm-thick Sn layer on a microstructured porous alumina substrate.
Open-water swimming is increasingly popular, often in water not considered safe for bathing. Limited evidence exists on the associated health risks. We investigated gastrointestinal illness in 1100 swimmers in a River Thames event in London, UK, to describe the outbreak and identify risk factors. We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Our case definition was swimmers with any: diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal cramps lasting ⩾48 h, nausea lasting ⩾48 h, with onset within 9 days after the event. We used an online survey to collect information on symptoms, demographics, pre- and post-swim behaviours and open-water experience. We tested associations using robust Poisson regression. We followed up case microbiological results. Survey response was 61%, and attack rate 53% (338 cases). Median incubation period was 34 h and median symptom duration 4 days. Five cases had confirmed microbiological diagnoses (four Giardia, one Cryptosporidium). Wearing a wetsuit [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 6·96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·04–46·72] and swallowing water (aRR 1·42, 95% CI 1·03–1·97) were risk factors. Recent river-swimming (aRR 0·78, 95% CI 0·67–0·92) and age >40 years (aRR 0·83, 95% CI 0·70–0·98) were protective. Action to reduce risk of illness in future events is recommended, including clarification of oversight arrangements for future swims to ensure appropriate risk assessment and advice is provided.
Maestripieri et al. seem to put forth an argument in which they become vulnerable to some of the same criticisms that they level against stereotype theory As a result, the explanatory utility of their account of attractiveness bias comes into question, and it is unclear whether it offers anything superior to stereotype theory in conceptual soundness.
This paper seeks to establish good practice in setting inputs for operational risk models for banks, insurers and other financial service firms. It reviews Basel, Solvency II and other regulatory requirements as well as publicly available literature on operational risk modelling. It recommends a combination of historic loss data and scenario analysis for modelling of individual risks, setting out issues with these data, and outlining good practice for loss data collection and scenario analysis. It recommends the use of expert judgement for setting correlations, and addresses information requirements for risk mitigation allowances and capital allocation, before briefly covering Bayesian network methods for modelling operational risks.
Timely recruitment of population controls in infectious disease outbreak investigations is challenging. We evaluated the timeliness and cost of using a market research panel as a sampling frame for recruiting controls in a case-control study during an outbreak of Salmonella Mikawasima in the UK in 2013. We deployed a web-survey by email to targeted members of a market research panel (panel controls) in parallel to the outbreak control team interviewing randomly selected public health staff by telephone and completing paper-based questionnaires (staff controls). Recruitment and completion of exposure history web-surveys for panel controls (n = 123) took 14 h compared to 15 days for staff controls (n = 82). The average staff-time cost per questionnaire for staff controls was £13·13 compared to an invoiced cost of £3·60 per panel control. Differences in the distribution of some exposures existed between these control groups but case-control studies using each group found that illness was associated with consumption of chicken outside of the home and chicken from local butchers. Recruiting market research panel controls offers time and resource savings. More rapid investigations would enable more prompt implementation of control measures. We recommend that this method of recruiting controls is considered in future investigations and assessed further to better understand strengths and limitations.
The association between vitamin D and wheezing in early childhood is unclear. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the association between vitamin D exposure, during both pregnancy and childhood, and early childhood wheezing. Secondary objectives were to evaluate the associations between vitamin D exposures and asthma and wheezing severity. We conducted a cohort study of children (0–5 years) recruited from 2008 to 2013 through the TARGet Kids! primary-care research network. Vitamin D exposures included maternal vitamin D supplement use during pregnancy, child vitamin D supplementation and children’s 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations. The outcomes measured were parent-reported childhood wheezing, diagnosed asthma and wheezing severity. Vitamin D supplement and wheezing data were available for 2478 children, and blood samples were available for 1275 children. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, birth weight, outdoor play, breastfeeding duration, daycare status, parental smoking and family history of asthma. Vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy was associated with lower odds of childhood wheezing (aOR=0.65; 95% CI: 0.46–0.93). In early childhood, neither 25(OH)D (aOR per 10 nmol/l=1.01; 95% CI: 0.96–1.06) nor vitamin D supplementation (aOR=1.00; 95% CI: 0.81–1.23) was associated with wheezing. No significant associations were observed with diagnosed asthma or wheezing severity. Vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy was associated with reduced odds of wheezing, but child vitamin D supplementation and childhood 25(OH)D were not associated with reduced wheezing. The timing of exposure may be important in understanding the association between vitamin D and childhood wheezing.
The definition of ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis was derived from community-based help-seeking populations. Prisoners have high rates of psychosis and other severe mental health (MH) problems. They also have high rates of risk factors for psychiatric morbidity and yet they are among the populations who are less likely to seek help in the community. Despite a policy of equivalence of care for individuals in prison there are no early intervention services for psychosis in prisons in the UK. This was a study exploring feasibility of introducing such a service into a local London prison. This paper discusses the differences in MH profile of prisoners who met criteria for at-risk mental state compared with those who did not.
A two-stage procedure was used. Participants in a local London prison were routinely screened in the first week of arrival in prison with the Prodrome Questionnaire – Brief Version (PQ-B; Loewy et al. 2011). Those that screened positive as well as a small sample of those who screened negative underwent a further semi-structured assessment to see whether they met criteria for UHR state. Data on self-harm and suicide attempt, family psychiatric history, and anxiety and depression was also collected.
A total of 891 prisoners were screened, 44% of whom screened positive. A total of 354 underwent second stage assessment, 60 of whom had screened negative. Four groups were identified: those that had no MH problems, a group experiencing First Episode Psychosis, those at UHR of psychosis and a group with other MH problems. The UHR state and Psychotic groups had very similar MH profiles of symptoms and distress. Prisoners with no MH problems were at the other end of the spectrum with few symptoms and little distress. The Other group fell in between this group and the psychotic spectrum group in terms of symptomology and distress.
This study is the first to examine risk for psychosis in an adult male prison population. We identified a broad spectrum of MH disorder for which there is little current service provision in prisons. Screening early in the custodial process has the potential to identify unmet MH need and has implications for keeping individuals safe in custody. A long-term strategic approach is required to address MH need in prisons.
Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and the Parallel Electrical Dielectric Response Analysis (PEDRA) application were used to describe the inner barrier oxide films on irradiated zirconium alloys. This is achieved with minimal surface preparation and without disturbing the outer porous oxide. These two distinguishable inner and outer oxide layers result from a growth-fracture oxidation mechanism. Key to success of the EIS technique in describing the barrier oxide layer are: 1) the model and procedure used to fit EIS spectra, 2) the validation of the fit, and 3) converting circuit parameters (R, C and n) into physical attributes of the barrier oxide.
The barrier oxide is defined as the inner-dense layer adjacent to the metal-oxide interface. The integrity of barrier oxide is thought to effect both oxidation (i.e. access of water to the interface), and hydrogen pickup (i.e. failure hydrogen to escape away from the interface). Using EIS and the PEDRA application, the barrier oxide is described in terms of multiple independent dielectric responses to yield a unique 'micro-macro' picture of the barrier oxide that can be used to explain observed H pickup behavior.
There are no evidence-based treatments for severe and enduring anorexia nervosa (SE-AN). This study evaluated the relative efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT-AN) and specialist supportive clinical management (SSCM) for adults with SE-AN.
Sixty-three participants with a diagnosis of AN, who had at least a 7-year illness history, were treated in a multi-site randomized controlled trial (RCT). During 30 out-patient visits spread over 8 months, they received either CBT-AN or SSCM, both modified for SE-AN. Participants were assessed at baseline, end of treatment (EOT), and at 6- and 12-month post-treatment follow-ups. The main outcome measures were quality of life, mood disorder symptoms and social adjustment. Weight, eating disorder (ED) psychopathology, motivation for change and health-care burden were secondary outcomes.
Thirty-one participants were randomized to CBT-AN and 32 to SSCM with a retention rate of 85% achieved at the end of the study. At EOT and follow-up, both groups showed significant improvement. There were no differences between treatment groups at EOT. At the 6-month follow-up, CBT-AN participants had higher scores on the Weissman Social Adjustment Scale (WSAS; p = 0.038) and at 12 months they had lower Eating Disorder Examination (EDE) global scores (p = 0.004) and higher readiness for recovery (p = 0.013) compared to SSCM.
Patients with SE-AN can make meaningful improvements with both therapies. Both treatments were acceptable and high retention rates at follow-up were achieved. Between-group differences at follow-up were consistent with the nature of the treatments given.
Accents and dialects of English and Scots in Britain have been under active investigation for many decades, as reported through the Survey of English Dialects (Orton et al. 1962–71) and the Linguistic Atlas of Scotland (Mather et al. 1975–86), Wells’ three-volume compendium (1982), and a host of detailed studies of individual varieties. There are also welcome recent signs of the reintegration of variation data into theoretical discussion (see Henry 2002, Cornips & Corrigan 2005a and Trousdale & Adger 2007 for morphosyntax, as well as Anttila 2002 and Coetzee & Pater 2011 for phonology). Nonetheless, the precise structural, geolinguistic and sociolinguistic patterning of many features of vernacular Englishes in the UK is still largely unknown.
In August 2008 an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 occurred in South West London. Sixteen cases were identified with a particular multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) pattern. In a matched case-control study 14 primary cases were included. These were defined as individuals with gastrointestinal symptoms and Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 isolated from a stool specimen, with a characteristic antibiotic resistance profile and MLVA pattern, and diagnosed in a local laboratory. Four controls per case were matched on age, gender and area of residence. Cases were 26 times more likely than controls to have eaten beef biltong, a South African speciality meat product (odds ratio 25·83, 95% confidence interval 4·92–135·59, P < 0·01). Although environmental investigation failed to identify Salmonella in the food product we conclude that beef biltong consumption led to this outbreak. This conclusion has importance in informing the ongoing risk assessment relating to uncontrolled foodstuffs.
F is an important trace element for bones and teeth. The protective effect of F against dental caries is well established. Urine is the prime vehicle for the excretion of F from the body; however, the relationship between F intake and excretion is complex: the derived fractional urinary F excretion (FUFE) aids understanding of this in different age groups. The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between (1) total daily F intake (TDFI) and daily urinary F excretion (DUFE), and (2) TDFI and FUFE in 6–7-year-olds, recruited in low-F and naturally fluoridated (natural-F) areas in north-east England. TDFI from diet and toothbrushing and DUFE were assessed through F analysis of duplicate dietary plate, toothbrushing expectorate and urine samples using a F-ion-selective electrode. FUFE was calculated as the ratio between DUFE and TDFI. Pearson's correlation and regression analysis were used to investigate the relationship between TDFI and FUFE. A group of thirty-three children completed the study; twenty-one receiving low-F water (0·30 mg F/l) and twelve receiving natural-F water (1·06 mg F/l) at school. The mean TDFI was 0·076 (sd 0·038) and 0·038 (sd 0·027) mg/kg per d for the natural-F and low-F groups, respectively. The mean DUFE was 0·017 (sd 0·007) and 0·012 (sd 0·006) mg/kg per d for the natural-F and low-F groups, respectively. FUFE was lower in the natural-F group (30 %) compared with the low-F group (40 %). Pearson's correlation coefficient for (1) TDFI and DUFE was +0·22 (P= 0·22) and for (2) TDFI and FUFE was − 0·63 (P< 0·001). In conclusion, there was no correlation between TDFI and DUFE. However, there was a statistically significant negative correlation between FUFE and TDFI.
In September 2009, an outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis affected 327 of 1419 inmates at a London prison. We applied a cohort design using aggregated data from the kitchen about portions of food distributed, aligned this with individual food histories from 124 cases (18 confirmed, 106 probable) and deduced the exposures of those remaining well. Results showed that prisoners eating egg cress rolls were 26 times more likely to be ill [risk ratio 25·7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 15·5–42·8, P<0·001]. In a case/non-case multivariable analysis the adjusted odds ratio for egg cress rolls was 41·1 (95% CI 10·3–249·7, P<0·001). The epidemiological investigation was strengthened by environmental and microbiological investigations. This paper outlines an approach to investigations in large complex settings where aggregate data for exposures may be available, and led to the development of guidelines for the management of future gastrointestinal outbreaks in prison settings.
Two different atmospheric pressure microplasma systems are discussed and used for the synthesis and surface engineering of a range of nanomaterials. Specifically a gas-phase approach from vaporized tetramethylsilane has been used to synthesize silicon carbide nanoparticles with diameters below 10 nm. A different microplasma system that interfaces with a liquid solution has then been used for the synthesis of surfactant-free electrically stabilized gold nanoparticles with varying size. A similar microplasma-liquid system has been finally successfully used to tailor surface properties of silicon nanoparticles and to reduce graphene oxide into graphene. The synthesis and surface engineering mechanisms are also discussed.
The UK was one of few European countries to document a substantial wave of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in summer 2009. The First Few Hundred (FF100) project ran from April–June 2009 gathering information on early laboratory-confirmed cases across the UK. In total, 392 confirmed cases were followed up. Children were predominantly affected (median age 15 years, IQR 10–27). Symptoms were mild and similar to seasonal influenza, with the exception of diarrhoea, which was reported by 27%. Eleven per cent of all cases had an underlying medical condition, similar to the general population. The majority (92%) were treated with antiviral drugs with 12% reporting adverse effects, mainly nausea and other gastrointestinal complaints. Duration of illness was significantly shorter when antivirals were given within 48 h of onset (median 5 vs. 9 days, P=0·01). No patients died, although 14 were hospitalized, of whom three required mechanical ventilation. The FF100 identified key clinical and epidemiological characteristics of infection with this novel virus in near real-time.
On 29 April 2009, an imported case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was detected in a London school. As further cases, pupils and staff members were identified, school closure and mass prophylaxis were implemented. An observational descriptive study was conducted to provide an insight into the clinical presentation and transmission dynamics in this setting. Between 15 April and 15 May 2009, 91 symptomatic cases were identified: 33 were confirmed positive for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection; 57 were tested negative; in one the results were unavailable. Transmission occurred first within the school, and subsequently outside. Attack rates were 2% in pupils (15% in the 11–12 years age group) and 17% in household contacts. The predominant symptoms were fever (97%), respiratory symptoms (91%), and sore throat (79%). Limited spread in the school may have been due to a combination of school closure and mass prophylaxis. However, transmission continued through household contacts to other schools.