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Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.
We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties.
The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.
The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127–137)
To examine the characteristics of supporters and opponents of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and to identify pro-tax messages that resonate with the public.
A survey was administered by telephone in February 2013 to assess public opinion about a penny-per-ounce tax on SSB. Support was also examined for SSB consumption reduction and pro-tax messages. Individual characteristics including sociodemographics, political affiliation, SSB consumption behaviours and beliefs were explored as predictors of support using logistic regression.
A representative sample of voters was recruited from a Mid-Atlantic US state.
The sample included 1000 registered voters.
Findings indicate considerable support (50 %) for an SSB tax. Support was stronger among Democrats, those who believe SSB are a major cause of childhood obesity and those who believe childhood obesity warrants a societal intervention. Belief that a tax would be effective in lowering obesity rates was associated with support for the tax and pro-tax messages. Respondents reporting that a health-care provider had recommended they lose weight were less convinced by pro-tax messages. Women, Independents and those concerned about childhood obesity were more convinced by the SSB reduction messages. Overall, the most popular messages focused on the importance of reducing consumption among children without mentioning the tax.
Understanding who supports and opposes SSB tax measures can assist advocates in developing strategies to maximize support for this type of intervention. Messages that focus on the effect of consumption on children may be useful in framing the discussion around SSB tax proposals.
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