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Solvency II came into force on 1 January 2016 and included a transitional measure on technical provisions (“TMTP”) designed to help smooth in the capital impact of Solvency II over a 16-year period. The working party’s view is that the main intention of the TMTP is to mitigate the impact of the introduction of the risk margin, which significantly increases the technical provisions of firms, relative to their Solvency I Pillar 2 liabilities.
The majority of firms who hold a TMTP have now had at least one recalculation approved by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA); or are in the process of applying for a recalculation. Despite this large number of approved recalculations, there remains significant uncertainty in the industry around the approach and triggers for recalculation.
This paper considers aspects of TMTP recalculation for regulated UK life firms, for example practicalities of the calculation, asset and liability considerations, and communications/announcements.
In this paper, we outline the need for pragmatism when considering the approach to recalculation of a measure originally intended to serve as the bridge between two regimes. We call for an allowance for doing what is sensible in a principles-based regime balancing what might be more theoretically correct with what is practical and possible to support effective management of the business.
To determine the patterns and predictors of treatment response trajectories for veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Conditional latent growth mixture modelling was used to identify classes and predictors of class membership. In total, 2686 veterans treated for PTSD between 2002 and 2015 across 14 hospitals in Australia completed the PTSD Checklist at intake, discharge, and 3 and 9 months follow-up. Predictor variables included co-morbid mental health problems, relationship functioning, employment and compensation status.
Five distinct classes were found: those with the most severe PTSD at intake separated into a relatively large class (32.5%) with small change, and a small class (3%) with a large change. Those with slightly less severe PTSD separated into one class comprising 49.9% of the total sample with large change effects, and a second class comprising 7.9% with extremely large treatment effects. The final class (6.7%) with least severe PTSD at intake also showed a large treatment effect. Of the multiple predictor variables, depression and guilt were the only two found to predict differences in response trajectories.
These findings highlight the importance of assessing guilt and depression prior to treatment for PTSD, and for severe cases with co-morbid guilt and depression, considering an approach to trauma-focused therapy that specifically targets guilt and depression-related cognitions.
The care received by people presenting to hospital following self-harm varies and it is unclear how different types of treatment affect risk of further self-harm.
Observational cohort data from the Manchester Self-Harm Project, UK, included 16 456 individuals presenting to an Emergency Department with self-harm between 2003 and 2011. Individuals were followed up for 12 months. We also used data from a smaller cohort of individuals presenting to 31 hospitals in England during a 3-month period in 2010/2011, followed up for 6 months. Propensity score (PS) methods were used to address observed confounding. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation.
Following PS stratification, those who received a psychosocial assessment had a lower risk of repeat hospital attendance for self-harm than those who were not assessed [RR 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80–0.95]. The risk was reduced most among people less likely to be assessed. Following PS matching, we found no associations between risks of repeat self-harm and admission to a medical bed, referral to outpatient psychiatry or admission to a psychiatric bed. We did not find a relationship between psychosocial assessment and repeat self-harm in the 31 centre cohort.
This study shows the potential value of using novel statistical techniques in large mental health datasets to estimate treatment effects. We found that specialist psychosocial assessment may reduce the risk of repeat self-harm. This type of routine care should be provided for all individuals who present to hospital after self-harm, regardless of perceived risk.
N. Goldman, Center for Nonlinear Phenomena and Complex Systems, Université Libre de Bruxelles,
N. R. Cooper, T.C.M. Group, Cavendish Laboratory, J.J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE, UK,
J. Dalibard, Laboratoire Kastler Brossel, Coll`ege de France, CNRS, ENS-PSL Research University
The present chapter discusses methods by which topological Bloch bands can be prepared in cold-atom setups. Focusing on the case of Chern bands for two-dimensional systems, we describe how topological properties can be triggered by driving atomic gases, either by dressing internal levels with light or through time-periodic modulations. We illustrate these methods with concrete examples, and we discuss recent experiments where geometrical and topological band properties have been identified.
Ultracold atoms constitute a promising physical platform for the preparation and exploration of novel states of matter [1, 2, 3]. In particular, the engineering of topological band structures with cold-atom systems, together with the capability of tuning interactions between the particles, opens an interesting route toward the realization of intriguing strongly correlated states with topological features, such as fractional topological insulators and quantum Hall liquids .
This chapter is dedicated to the preparation and the detection of topological band structures characterized by nonzero Chern numbers . Such Chern bands, which constitute the building blocks for realizing (fractional) Chern insulators [6, 7], arise in two-dimensional (2D) systems presenting time-reversal-symmetry (TRS) breaking effects. For instance, nontrivial Chern bands naturally appear in the Harper-Hofstadter model , a lattice penetrated by a uniform flux, where they generalize the (nondispersive) Landau levels to the lattice framework. Additionally, Chern bands also appear in staggered flux configurations, such as in Haldane's honeycomb-lattice model  or in lattice systems combining Rashba spin-orbit coupling and Zeeman (exchange) fields.
The atoms being charge neutral, “magnetic” fluxes cannot be simply produced by subjecting optical lattices to “real” magnetic fields. It is the aim of this chapter to review several schemes that have been recently implemented in laboratories with the goal of realizing synthetic magnetic fields leading to Chern bands for cold atoms. Our presentation is complementary to that of Chapter 15, as we focus on synthetic magnetic fields in lattice-based systems for which the flux density can be made very large (with magnetic length comparable to interparticle spacing). The chapter is structured as follows: Section 14.2 describes how the Chern number is related to physical observables defined in a lattice framework. In particular, it clarifies the link between recent Chern-number measurements performed in cold bosonic gases and the more conventional (electronic) quantum Hall effect.
The Gaia DR1 catalogue stars are taken as reference ones to reduce the Cassini ISS images of Enceladus in 2015, and a total of 494 Cassini-centered astrometric observation are obtained in right ascension(α) and declination (δ) in the international Celestial Reference Frame(ICRF). Compared with JPL ephemerides SAT367, we derive that their mean residuals are a few tens meters in α*cos(δ) and a few kilometers in δ, and their standard deviation is not over 2 kilometers. Compared with the results from UCAC4 catalogue stars, The Gaia DR1 has the equivalent precision of reduction.
We hypothesised that infants with ventricular dysfunction after cardiac surgery have impaired haemodynamic response to arginine–vasopressin therapy. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of neonates and infants treated with arginine–vasopressin within 48 hours of corrective or palliative cardiac surgery who underwent echocardiographic assessment of ventricular function before initiation of therapy. Patients were classified as “responders” if their systolic blood pressure increased by ⩾10% without increase in catecholamine score or if it was maintained with decreased catecholamine score. Response was assessed 1 hour after maximum upward titration of arginine–vasopressin. A total of 36 children (15 neonates) were reviewed (17 male). The median (interquartile) age was 10.4 weeks (1.1–26.9), and the median weight was 4.3 kg (3.2–5.8). Diagnoses included single ventricle (eight), arch abnormalities (five), atrioventricular septal defect (four), double-outlet right ventricle (three), tetralogy of Fallot (three), and others (13). In all, 12 patients (33%) had ventricular dysfunction. Only 15 (42%) responded favourably according to our definition 1 hour after the “target” arginine–vasopressin dose was achieved. Ventricular dysfunction was not associated with poor response. The overall mortality was 25%, but mortality in patients with ventricular dysfunction was 42%. Favourable response was associated with shorter ICU stay (9.5 days versus 19.5 days, p=0.01). We conclude that arginine–vasopressin fails to increase blood pressure in ~50% of hypotensive children after cardiac surgery. The response rate does not increase with duration of therapy. Ventricular function does not predict haemodynamic response. The mortality in this group is very high. Prospective comparison of vasopressin with other vasoactive agents and/or inotropes is warranted.
A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer’s decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer’s decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.
The Caribbean island of Mona, on a key Atlantic route from Europe to the Americas, was at the heart of sixteenth-century Spanish colonial projects. Communities on the island were exposed to the earliest waves of European impact during a critical period of transformation and the forging of new identities. One of many caves within an extensive subterranean world on the island was marked both by indigenous people and by the first generations of Europeans to arrive in the New World. This account of spiritual encounters provides a rare, personalised insight into intercultural religious dynamics in the early Americas.
The South African coast contains abundant estuaries and lagoons, most of which originated as river valleys incised during Quaternary sea-level fall and subsequently drowned and/or infilled during rising interglacial sea levels. This chapter discusses these changes and highlights the geomorphological and sedimentological evolution of several southern African estuaries during the Pleistocene to present. The development, infilling and positioning of incised valley systems is mainly controlled by sea-level variation as well as fluvial and marine sediment supply. Most contemporary estuaries in southern Africa show dramatic responses to shorter term sea-level fluctuations and sediment supply during the Holocene. Barring anthropogenic interference, the dynamic behaviour of estuaries, dictated by their transient position and geomorphic character within an incised valley, is considered to fluctuate on centennial to millennial timescales.
Both maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations during pregnancy and
placental amino acid transporter gene expression have been associated with
development of the offspring in terms of body composition and bone structure.
Several amino acid transporter genes have vitamin D response elements in their
promoters suggesting the possible linkage of these two mechanisms. We aimed to
establish whether maternal 25(OH)D and vitamin D-binding protein (VDBP) levels
relate to expression of placental amino acid transporters. RNA was extracted
from 102 placental samples collected in the Southampton Women's Survey,
and gene expression was analysed using quantitative real-time PCR. Gene
expression data were normalised to the geometric mean of three housekeeping
genes, and related to maternal factors and childhood body composition. Maternal
serum 25(OH)D and VDBP levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. Maternal
25(OH)D and VDBP levels were positively associated with placental expression of
specific genes involved in amino acid transport. Maternal 25(OH)D and VDBP
concentrations were correlated with the expression of specific placental amino
acid transporters, and thus may be involved in the regulation of amino acid
transfer to the fetus. The positive correlation of VDBP levels and placental
transporter expression suggests that delivery of vitamin D to the placenta may
be important. This exploratory study identifies placental amino acid
transporters which may be altered in response to modifiable maternal factors and
provides a basis for further studies.
Anxious mothers' parenting, particularly transfer of threat information, has been considered important in their children's risk for social anxiety disorder (SAnxD), and maternal narratives concerning potential social threat could elucidate this contribution. Maternal narratives to their preschool 4- to 5-year-old children, via a picture book about starting school, were assessed in socially anxious (N = 73), and nonanxious (N = 63) mothers. Child representations of school were assessed via doll play (DP). After one school term, mothers (Child Behavior Checklist [CBCL]) and teachers (Teacher Report Form) reported on child internalizing problems, and child SAnxD was assessed via maternal interview. Relations between these variables, infant behavioral inhibition, and attachment, were examined. Socially anxious mothers showed more negative (higher threat attribution) and less supportive (lower encouragement) narratives than controls, and their children's DP representations SAnxD and CBCL scores were more adverse. High narrative threat predicted child SAnxD; lower encouragement predicted negative child CBCL scores and, particularly for behaviorally inhibited children, Teacher Report Form scores and DP representations. In securely attached children, CBCL scores and risk for SAnxD were affected by maternal anxiety and threat attributions, respectively. Low encouragement mediated the effects of maternal anxiety on child DP representations and CBCL scores. Maternal narratives are affected by social anxiety and contribute to adverse child outcome.
Decades of research on social skills assessment and intervention indicates the importance of social skills in improving academic achievement. Additionally, a strong evidence base promotes the inclusion of social–emotional learning into the whole school curriculum. In recognition of this evidence, the new Australian Curriculum, under Personal and social capability, calls for students to develop social skills. For many students with additional needs, it is hoped that the development of social skills will enable increased connectedness and a greater sense of inclusion. To meet developmental expectations of social skills, teachers need to measure these skills, develop effective teaching strategies for them, and evaluate their progress. The multi-tiered assessment and intervention components of the Social Skills Improvement System (SSiS; Elliott & Gresham, 2007) seem to offer a comprehensive system to support this process (Elliott, Frey, & Davies, in press).
Official suicide statistics for England are based on deaths given suicide verdicts and most cases given an open verdict following a coroner's inquest. Previous research indicates that some deaths given accidental verdicts are considered to be suicides by clinicians. Changes in coroners' use of different verdicts may bias suicide trend estimates. We investigated whether suicide trends may be over- or underestimated when they are based on deaths given suicide and open verdicts.
Possible suicides assessed by 12 English coroners in 1990/91, 1998 and 2005 and assigned open, accident/misadventure or narrative verdicts were rated by three experienced suicide researchers according to the likelihood that they were suicides. Details of all suicide verdicts given by these coroners were also recorded.
In 1990/91, 72.0% of researcher-defined suicides received a suicide verdict from the coroner, this decreased to 65.4% in 2005 (ptrend < 0.01); equivalent figures for combined suicide and open verdicts were 95.4% (1990/91) and 86.7% (2005). Researcher-defined suicides with a verdict of accident/misadventure doubled over that period, from 4.6% to 9.1% (p < 0.01). Narrative verdict cases rose from zero in 1990/91 to 25 in 2005 (4.2% of researcher-defined suicides that year). In 1998 and 2005, 50.0% of the medicine poisoning deaths given accidental/misadventure verdicts were rated as suicide by the researchers.
Between 1990/91 and 2005, the proportion of researcher-defined suicides given a suicide verdict by coroners decreased, largely due to an increased use of accident/misadventure verdicts, particularly for deaths involving poisoning. Consideration should be given to the inclusion of ‘accidental’ deaths by poisoning with medicines in the statistics available for monitoring suicides rates.
An overview of the major issues to be addressed for widespread commercial introduction and use of aviation biofuels is presented in this paper. These include the progress toward standards and approvals, bio-feedstock supply and sustainability, conversion routes to suitable fuel molecules, and policy and regulation considerations to create the necessary market and investment environment. It has been shown that while technical standards are now largely in place, biojet faces competition from biodiesel markets for feedstock, and existing sources of vegetable oil face sustainability challenges for greater supply. Other conversion routes exist that can use more sustainable feedstock, but they are capital intensive and will require a high fuel price to support investment. Policy approaches to cover the expected price premium above fossil fuel may also face political difficulties.