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Abdominal obesity (AO) is a relative risk factor for cardiovascular events. We aimed to determine the 6-year incidence of AO and its risk factors among Tehranian adults.
In this population-based cohort study, non-abdominally obese participants, aged ≥20 years, were followed for incidence of AO. Cumulative incidence and incidence rate of AO were calculated for each sex. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the association of potential risk factors including age, BMI, dysmetabolic state, smoking, marital status, educational level and physical activity (PA).
A total of 5044 participants (1912 men) were followed for a median of 6 years. Mean age was 37·7 (sd 13·5) years at baseline, with mean BMI of 24·3 (sd 3·1) kg/m2 (men, 23·0 (sd 2·4) kg/m2; women, 25·0 (sd 3·2) kg/m2). During follow-up, 3093 (1373 men) developed AO with total cumulative incidence of 76·02, 83·59 and 70·90 %, for the whole population, men and women, respectively. Corresponding incidence rates were 96·0, 138·7 and 77·1 per 1000 person-years. The highest incidence rate was observed during their 30s and 50s, in men and women, respectively. Subjects with dysmetabolic state in both sexes, married women, men with lower PA and higher educational levels at baseline were at higher risk of AO.
The incidence of AO is high among Tehranian adults, especially in young men. The risk factors for developing AO should be highlighted to halt this growing trend of AO.
Some recent studies have shown stablity or declining trends in obesity while others still report increasing trends. The present study aimed to investigate the trends of obesity and abdominal obesity in Tehranian adults during a median follow-up of 10 years.
Prospective cohort study.
Community-based data collection from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS).
Participants from four phases of the TLGS from 1999 to 2011 (n 10 368), aged ≥20 years.
The crude prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity increased from 23·1 % and 47·9 % at baseline to 34·1 % and 71·1 % at the end of follow-up, respectively. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were used to analyse the correlated data and calculate the relative risks (RR). Risks of obesity and abdominal obesity increased over the whole study period for men (RR=1·62; 95 % CI 1·49, 1·76 and RR=1·46; 95 % CI 1·41, 1·52, respectively) and women (RR=1·24; 95 % CI 1·19, 1·29 and RR=1·22; 95 % CI 1·18, 1·27, respectively). These rising trends were observed in all subgroups regardless of age, marital status and educational level.
Trends of obesity and abdominal obesity are increasing in Tehranian adults during a decade of follow-up in both genders and in all study subgroups. These results underscore the still growing obesity epidemic in the capital of Iran, calling for urgent action to educate people in lifestyle modifications and the need for effective preventive and educational strategies on obesity.
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