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Donald J. Trump won the 2016 US presidential election with fewer popular votes than Hillary R. Clinton. This is the fourth time this has happened, the others being 1876, 1888, and 2000. In earlier work, we analyzed these elections (and others) and showed how the electoral winner can often depend on the size of the US House of Representatives. This work was inspired by Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003, 721–5) in their paper, “Outcomes of Presidential Elections and the House Size.” A sufficiently larger House would have given electoral victories to the popular vote winner in both 1876 and 2000. An exception is the election of 1888. We show that Trump’s victory in 2016 is like Harrison’s in 1888 and unlike Hayes’s in 1876 and Bush’s in 2000. This article updates our previous work to include the 2016 election. It also draws attention to some of the anomalous behavior that can arise under the Electoral College.
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding-line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). Perturbation experiments specifying spatial variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Steady-state grounding-line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Resolving grounding lines requires inclusion of membrane stresses, a sufficiently small grid size (<500 m), or subgrid interpolation of the grounding line. The latter still requires nominal grid sizes of <5 km. For larger grid spacings, appropriate parameterizations for ice flux may be imposed at the grounding line, but the short-time transient behaviour is then incorrect and different from models that do not incorporate grounding-line parameterizations. The numerical error associated with predicting grounding-line motion can be reduced significantly below the errors associated with parameter ignorance and uncertainties in future scenarios.
The objective of the Apollon 10 PW project is the generation of 10 PW peak power pulses of 15 fs at
. In this paper a brief update on the current status of the Apollon project is presented, followed by a more detailed presentation of our experimental and theoretical investigations of the temporal characteristics of the laser. More specifically the design considerations as well as the technological and physical limitations to achieve the intended pulse duration and contrast are discussed.
To determine the sensitivity and specificity of clinical and laboratory signs for the diagnosis of septic arthritis (SA).
Patients and methods
This prospective study included all adult patients with suspected SA seen in the emergency department or rheumatology department at the University Hospital, Clermont-Ferrand, France, over a period of 18 months.
In total, 105 patients with suspected SA were included, 38 (36%) presenting with SA (29 [28%] with bacteriologically documented SA). In the univariate analysis, chills (p=0.015), gradual onset (p=0.04), local redness (p=0.01), as well as an entry site for infection (p=0.01) were most often identified in SA. A history of crystal-induced arthritis (p=0.004) was more frequent in non-SA cases. An erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR)>50 mm (p=0.005), a C-reactive protein (CRP) level >100 mg/L (p=0.019), and radiological signs suggestive of SA (p=0.001) were more frequent in the SA cases. Synovial fluid appearance: purulent (p<0.001) and clear (p=0.007), synovial white blood cell (WBC) count >50,000/μL (p < 0.001), differentiated between SA and non-SA.
In multivariate analysis, only chills (odds ration [OR]=4.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3–17.1), a history of crystal-induced arthritis (OR=0.09, 95% CI 0.01–0.9), purulent appearance of the joint fluid (OR=8.4, 95% CI 2.4–28.5), synovial WBC count >50,000/mm3 (OR=6.8, 95% CI 1.3–36), and radiological findings (OR=7.1, 95% CI 13–37.9) remained significant.
No clinical sign or laboratory test (excluding bacteriological test), taken alone, is conclusive for the differentiation between SA and non-SA, but the association of several signs, notably chills, history of crystal-induced arthritis, radiological findings, and the appearance and cellularity of joint fluid may be suggestive.
The objective of the Apollon project is the generation of 10 PW peak power pulses of 15 fs at 1 shot/minute. In this paper the Apollon facility design, the technological challenges and the current progress of the project will be presented.
In 2008, Granett et al. claimed a direct detection of the integrated Sachs- Wolfe (iSW) effect by a stacking approach of patches of the CMB, at the positions of identified superstructures. However, the high amplitude of their measured signal seems to be at odds with predictions from the standard model of cosmology. However, multiple questions arise from these results and their expected value : I propose here an original theoretical prediction of the iSW effect produced by such superstructures. I use simulations based on GR and the LTB metric to reproduce cosmic structures and predict their exact full theoretical iSW effect. Expected amplitudes are consistent with the measured signal ; however the latter shows non-reproducible features that are hardly compatible with ΛCDM predictions.
The present work reports the covalent functionalization of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) by ferrocene derivatives with polyethyleneglycol linkers. A very clean initial sample was chosen to avoid any residual catalyst and carbon impurities. Functionalized SWCNTs (f-CNTs) are deposited on the surface of a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) and this modified electrode is used for oxidizing the cofactor NADH (dihydronicotinamide adenine dinucleotide) in the presence of diaphorase. A clear electrocatalytic effect is evidenced, which can only be attributed to the f-CNTs.
The present work reports the covalent functionalization of few-wall CNTs (FWCNTs) by ferrocene derivatives to i) improve their dispersion efficiency in water and ii) to graft electroactive chemical groups on their side-walls in order to promote electron transfer to biomolecules. The functionalized CNTs (f-CNTs) are used to modify a glassy carbon electrode and this modified electrode is used for oxidizing the cofactor NADH (dihydronicotinamide adenine dinucleotide).
Optical properties of GaN templates grown by the Epitaxial Lateral Overgrowth (ELO) technique along the nonpolar (1120) and the semipolar (1122) directions on R- and M-sapphire were investigated. Spatially resolved Cathodoluminescence (CL) was carried out in order to identify defect related transitions, to resolve their localization and to study the efficiency of ELO concerning defect filtration. The wing region of semipolar GaN is shown to be almost defect free with a luminescence spectrum dominated by the GaN emission at 3,472 eV. It is shown that the defect related emissions are localized in the seed, but different defects occur as well in the wing, especially in A-plane (nonpolar) GaN.
A linear mapping T from a subspace E of a Banach algebra into another Banach algebra is called spectrally bounded if there is a constant M ≥ 0 such that r(T x) ≤ Mr(x) for all x ∈ E, where r (·) denotes the spectral radius. We establish the equivalence of the following properties of a unital linear mapping T from a unital C* -algebra A into its centre:
Scleroderris canker of conifer is caused by Gremmeniella abietina var. abietina, which comprises several taxa, including races, varieties,
and biotypes. The European race of G. abietina var. abietina was introduced into North America early in the century, most likely on
asymptomatic infected pine seedlings, and is currently widespread in eastern North America. In order to detect latent infections and
differentiate the North American and European races of the fungus, we developed oligonucleotide primers to amplify by PCR
portions of the ITS of the ribosomal DNA of G. abietina var. abietina. The 417 bp amplified DNA fragment comprises two Msp I
restriction sites in the NA race but only one in the EU race. DNA extractions directly from infected asymptomatic needles, or from
single fruiting bodies, followed by PCR amplification and Msp I digestion allowed the detection and race identification of both races
of G. abietina var. abietina from seedlings and branches of Pinus resinosa and P. banksiana. A nested PCR assay was sensitive enough
to detect the equivalent of a single infected seedling in a bulk sample of 1000 healthy seedlings. Validation tests were conducted by
comparing PCR and isolation assays with 104 fascicles. All samples for which the fungus was isolated yielded a positive PCR assay
and there was no false negative, i.e. samples for which the fungus was isolated but not detected by PCR. Among the samples from
which the fungus was not isolated, most yielded a negative PCR assay (71%), but a proportion (29%) yielded positive PCR assays.
In several of those cases, aggressive contaminants had apparently overgrown the pathogen. The method described here can lead to
the detection and race identification of the NA and EU races of G. abietina var. abietina directly from infected tissues without the
need to culture the fungus and should find applications in nursery inspection and quarantine.