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In this paper, I will review some aspects of psychometric projects that I have been involved in, emphasizing the nature of the work of the psychometricians involved, especially the balance between the statistical and scientific elements of that work. The intent is to seek to understand where psychometrics, as a discipline, has been and where it might be headed, in part at least, by considering one particular journey (my own). In contemplating this, I also look to psychometrics journals to see how psychometricians represent themselves to themselves, and in a complementary way, look to substantive journals to see how psychometrics is represented there (or perhaps, not represented, as the case may be). I present a series of questions in order to consider the issue of what are the appropriate foci of the psychometric discipline. As an example, I present one recent project at the end, where the roles of the psychometricians and the substantive researchers have had to become intertwined in order to make satisfactory progress. In the conclusion I discuss the consequences of such a view for the future of psychometrics.
Item response theory models posit latent variables to account for regularities in students' performances on test items. Wilson's “Saltus” model extends the ideas of IRT to development that occurs in stages, where expected changes can be discontinuous, show different patterns for different types of items, or even exhibit reversals in probabilities of success on certain tasks. Examples include Piagetian stages of psychological development and Siegler's rule-based learning. This paper derives marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation equations for the structural parameters of the Saltus model and suggests a computing approximation based on the EM algorithm. For individual examinees, empirical Bayes probabilities of learning-stage are given, along with proficiency parameter estimates conditional on stage membership. The MML solution is illustrated with simulated data and an example from the domain of mixed number subtraction.
This paper discusses the application of a class of Rasch models to situations where test items are grouped into subsets and the common attributes of items within these subsets brings into question the usual assumption of conditional independence. The models are all expressed as particular cases of the random coefficients multinomial logit model developed by Adams and Wilson. This formulation allows a very flexible approach to the specification of alternative models, and makes model testing particularly straightforward. The use of the models is illustrated using item bundles constructed in the framework of the SOLO taxonomy of Biggs and Collis.
A category where the frequency of responses is zero, either for sampling or structural reasons, will be called a null category. One approach for ordered polytomous item response models is to downcode the categories (i.e., reduce the score of each category above the null category by one), thus altering the relationship between the substantive framework and the scoring scheme for items with null categories. It is discussed why this is often not a good idea, and a method for avoiding the problem is described for the partial credit model while maintaining the integrity of the original response framework. This solution is based on a simple reexpression of the basic parameters of the model.
This chapter gives a quick tour of classic material in univariate analytic combinatorics, including rational and meromorphic generating functions, Darboux’s method, the transfer theorems of singularity analysis, and saddle point methods for essential singularities.
This appendix contains a compressed version of standard graduate topics in topology such as chain complexes, homology, cohomology, relative homology, and excision.
This chapter develops methods to compute asymptotics of multivariate Fourier–Laplace integrals in order to derive general saddle point approximations for use in later chapters. Our approach uses contour deformation, differing from common treatments relying on integration by parts: this requires analyticity rather than just smoothness but is better suited to integration over complex manifolds.
This chapter gives a high-level overview of analytic combinatorics in several variables. Stratified Morse theory reduces the derivation of coefficient asymptotics for a multivariate generating function to the study of asymptotic expansions of local integrals near certain critical points on the generating function’s singular set. Determining exactly which critical points contribute to asymptotic behavior is a key step in the analysis . The asymptotic behavior of each local integral depends on the local geometry of the singular variety, with three special cases treated in later chapters.
This first chapter motivates our detailed study of the behavior of multivariate sequences, and overviews the techniques we derive using the Cauchy Integral Formula, residues, topological arguments, and asymptotic approximations. Basic asymptotic notation and concepts are introduced, including the background necessary to discuss multivariate expansions.
This chapter derives asymptotics determined by a critical point where the singular variety is locally smooth: the generic situation which arises most commonly in practice. Several explicit formulae for asymptotics are given.
This chapter concludes the book. It contains a survey of the state of analytic combinatorics in several variables, including problems on the boundary of our current knowledge.
This chapter contains a variety of examples deriving asymptotics of generating functions taken from the research literature, illustrating the power of analytic combinatorics in several variables.