Household surveys are one of the most commonly used tools for generating insight into rural communities. Despite their prevalence, few studies comprehensively evaluate the quality of data derived from farm household surveys. We critically evaluated a series of standard reported values and indicators that are captured in multiple farm household surveys, and then quantified their credibility, consistency and, thus, their reliability. Surprisingly, even variables which might be considered ‘easy to estimate’ had instances of non-credible observations. In addition, measurements of maize yields and land owned were found to be less reliable than other stationary variables. This lack of reliability has implications for monitoring food security status, poverty status and the land productivity of households. Despite this rather bleak picture, our analysis also shows that if the same farm households are followed over time, the sample sizes needed to detect substantial changes are in the order of hundreds of surveys, and not in the thousands. Our research highlights the value of targeted and systematised household surveys and the importance of ongoing efforts to improve data quality. Improvements must be based on the foundations of robust survey design, transparency of experimental design and effective training. The quality and usability of such data can be further enhanced by improving coordination between agencies, incorporating mixed modes of data collection and continuing systematic validation programmes.

Geochemical and related studies have been made of near-surface sediments from the River Clyde estuary and adjoining areas, extending from Glasgow to the N, and W as far as the Holy Loch on the W coast of Scotland, UK. Multibeam echosounder, sidescan sonar and shallow seismic data, taken with core information, indicate that a shallow layer of modern sediment, often less than a metre thick, rests on earlier glacial and post-glacial sediments. The offshore Quaternary history can be aligned with onshore sequences, with the recognition of buried drumlins, settlement of muds from quieter water, probably behind an ice dam, and later tidal delta deposits. The geochemistry of contaminants within the cores also indicates shallow contaminated sediments, often resting on pristine pre-industrial deposits at depths less than 1m. The distribution of different contaminants with depth in the sediment, such as Pb (and Pb isotopes), organics and radionuclides, allow chronologies of contamination from different sources to be suggested. Dating was also attempted using microfossils, radiocarbon and 210Pb, but with limited success. Some of the spatial distribution of contaminants in the surface sediments can be related to grain-size variations. Contaminants are highest, both in absolute terms and in enrichment relative to the natural background, in the urban and inner estuary and in the Holy Loch, reflecting the concentration of industrial activity.

We present Phantom, a fast, parallel, modular, and low-memory smoothed particle hydrodynamics and magnetohydrodynamics code developed over the last decade for astrophysical applications in three dimensions. The code has been developed with a focus on stellar, galactic, planetary, and high energy astrophysics, and has already been used widely for studies of accretion discs and turbulence, from the birth of planets to how black holes accrete. Here we describe and test the core algorithms as well as modules for magnetohydrodynamics, self-gravity, sink particles, dust–gas mixtures, H2 chemistry, physical viscosity, external forces including numerous galactic potentials, Lense–Thirring precession, Poynting–Robertson drag, and stochastic turbulent driving. Phantom is hereby made publicly available.

Ice rheology governs how glaciers flow and respond to environmental change. The rheology of glacier ice evolves in response to a variety of mechanisms, including damage, heating, melting and the development of crystalline fabric. The relative contributions of these rheological mechanisms are not well understood. Using remotely sensed data and physical models, we decouple the influence of each of the aforementioned mechanisms along the margins of Rutford Ice Stream, a laterally confined outlet glacier in West Antarctica. We show that fabric is an important control on ice rheology in the shear margins, with an inferred softening effect consistent with a single-maximum fabric. Fabric evolves to steady state near the onset of streaming flow, and ice progressively softens downstream almost exclusively due to shear heating. The rate of heating is sensitive to local shear strain rates, which respond to local changes in bed topography as ice is squeezed through the basal trough. The impact of shear heating on the downstream evolution of ice rheology in a laterally confined glacier suggests that the thermoviscous feedback – wherein faster ice flow leads to higher rates of shear heating, further softening the ice – is a fundamental control on glacier dynamics.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Background: Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show a broad range of unusual responses to sensory stimuli and experiences. It has been hypothesized that early differences in sensory responsiveness arise from atypical neural function and produce “cascading effects” on development across a number of domains, impacting social and communication skill, as well as broader development in children affected by ASD. A primary challenge to confirming these hypotheses is that ASD cannot be definitely diagnosed in the earliest stages of development (i.e., infancy). A potential solution is to prospectively follow infants at heightened risk for ASD based on their status as infant siblings of children who are diagnosed. We examined the developmental sequelae and possible neurophysiological substrates of three different patterns of sensory responsiveness—hyporesponsiveness (reduced or absent responding to sensory stimuli) and hyperresponsiveness (exaggerated responding to sensory stimuli), as well as sensory seeking (craving of or fascination with certain sensory experiences). Infants at high risk (HR) for ASD were compared with a control group of infants at relatively lower risk for ASD (LR; siblings of children with typical developmental histories). Objectives: Research questions included: (a) Do HR infants differ from LR infants in early sensory responsiveness?, (b) Does sensory responsiveness predict future ASD and related symptomatology? and (c) Is sensory responsiveness predicted by resting brain states? METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Methods: To answer these questions, we carried out a longitudinal correlational investigation in which 20 HR infants and 20 LR controls matched on sex and chronological age were followed over 18 months. At entry to the study, when infants were 18 months old, sensory responsiveness was measured using the Sensory Processing Assessment and the Sensory Experiences Questionnaire, and a number of putative neural signatures of early sensory differences were measured via resting state EEG. When infants were 24 and 36 months of age, ASD and related symptomatology was evaluated in a comprehensive diagnostic evaluation. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results: HR infants trended towards increased hyporesponsiveness and hyperresponsiveness and showed significantly elevated levels of sensory seeking relative to LR controls at 18 months of age. Both groups, furthermore, displayed a high degree of heterogeneity in sensory responsiveness. Atypical sensory responsiveness (increased hyperresponsiveness and/or hyporesponsiveness, as well as sensory seeking behavior) predicted several aspects of ASD and related symptomatology, including social, communication, and play skill, and was associated with differences in resting brain state, including metrics of oscillatory power, complexity, and connectivity, as well as hemispheric asymmetry. Moderation analyses revealed that several relations varied according to risk group, such that associations were stronger in magnitude in the HR Versus LR group. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Conclusion: Findings provide empirical support for the notion that early sensory responsiveness may produce cascading effects on development in infants at heightened risk for ASD. Differences in resting brain states may underlie atypical behavioral patterns of sensory responsiveness. From a clinical standpoint, results suggest that early sensory differences may be useful for predicting developmental trajectories, and be potentially important targets for early preventive intervention, in infants at risk for autism.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To study the role of OSA as an independent predictor of perioperative outcomes. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: For this single-institution cohort study, we included data from patients who were enrolled into 1 of 3 prospective parent studies. All participants underwent in-patient surgeries, excluding neurosurgeries, which required general anesthesia and a postoperative stay of at least 1 day. Patients included in this study were assessed daily for postoperative delirium and pain severity as part of the parent studies. In the current study, determination of delirium diagnosis was based on the 3-minute Diagnostic Confusion Assessment Method (3D-CAM), and the Visual Analogue Pain Scale (VAS) was used for pain severity. Data on OSA diagnosis (determined by sleep study); OSA risk (determined by the STOP-Bang tool; snoring, tiredness, observed apnea, high blood pressure, body mass index>35 kg/m2, age>50, neck circumference, male gender); and compliance with treatment were obtained from the preoperative assessment record. Participants were grouped into 1 of 3 categories: high risk of OSA (HR-OSA; including patients with a previous positive sleep study or STOP-Bang score ≥5); intermediate risk of OSA (IR-OSA; including patients with a STOP-Bang score of 3 or 4); and low risk of OSA (LR-OSA; including patients with a previous negative sleep study or STOP-Bang score <3). Candidate risk factors for delirium and pain were also extracted from this record. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Logistic regression will be used to test whether OSA independently predicts postoperative delirium and linear regression to assess OSAs relationship to acute pain severity. We hypothesize that patients in the HR-OSA category will experience a higher incidence of postoperative delirium and greater postoperative pain severity. We also predict a step-wise increase in risk of these adverse outcomes when analyzing patients stratified by OSA risk (HR-OSA vs. IR-OSA vs. LR-OSA). For our secondary analyses, we anticipate these outcomes are modified by compliance with CPAP treatment. We believe patients with OSA who do not use prescribed CPAP will experience a higher incidence of postoperative delirium as well as increased pain severity. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: OSA is a common and frequently undiagnosed perioperative problem associated with altered pain processing and a high incidence of postoperative delirium. While likely providing stronger evidence of OSA’s reported impact on postoperative delirium and pain, our findings might also help discern points of intervention for treatment and prevention. Since OSA’s presumed impact poses challenges to clinicians and patients, prospective, randomized trials testing preventative or mitigating interventions are necessary. We hope to use these results to design such trials and clinical plans, with the goal of reducing postoperative delirium and acute postsurgical pain severity for the large number of patients at risk due to OSA.