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Although both obesity and ageing are risk factors for cognitive impairment, there is no evidence in Chile on how obesity levels are associated with cognitive function. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the association between adiposity levels and cognitive impairment in older Chilean adults. This cross-sectional study includes 1384 participants, over 60 years of age, from the Chilean National Health Survey 2009–2010. Cognitive impairment was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination. BMI and waist circumference (WC) were used as measures of adiposity. Compared with people with a normal BMI, the odds of cognitive impairment were higher in participants who were underweight (OR 4·44; 95 % CI 2·43, 6·45; P < 0·0001), overweight (OR 1·86; 95 % CI 1·06, 2·66; P = 0·031) and obese (OR 2·26; 95 % CI 1·31, 3·21; P = 0·003). The associations were robust after adjustment for confounding variables. Similar results were observed for WC. Low and high levels of adiposity are associated with an increased likelihood of cognitive impairment in older adults in Chile.
Dense granular flows can spontaneously self-channelise by forming a pair of parallel-sided static levees on either side of a central flowing channel. This process prevents lateral spreading and maintains the flow thickness, and hence mobility, enabling the grains to run out considerably further than a spreading flow on shallow slopes. Since levees commonly form in hazardous geophysical mass flows, such as snow avalanches, debris flows, lahars and pyroclastic flows, this has important implications for risk management in mountainous and volcanic regions. In this paper an avalanche model that incorporates frictional hysteresis, as well as depth-averaged viscous terms derived from the
-rheology, is used to quantitatively model self-channelisation and levee formation. The viscous terms are crucial for determining a smoothly varying steady-state velocity profile across the flowing channel, which has the important property that it does not exert any shear stresses at the levee–channel interfaces. For a fixed mass flux, the resulting boundary value problem for the velocity profile also uniquely determines the width and height of the channel, and the predictions are in very good agreement with existing experimental data for both spherical and angular particles. It is also shown that in the absence of viscous (second-order gradient) terms, the problem degenerates, to produce plug flow in the channel with two frictionless contact discontinuities at the levee–channel margins. Such solutions are not observed in experiments. Moreover, the steady-state inviscid problem lacks a thickness or width selection mechanism and consequently there is no unique solution. The viscous theory is therefore a significant step forward. Fully time-dependent numerical simulations to the viscous model are able to quantitatively capture the process in which the flow self-channelises and show how the levees are initially emplaced behind the flow head. Both experiments and numerical simulations show that the height and width of the channel are not necessarily fixed by these initial values, but respond to changes in the supplied mass flux, allowing narrowing and widening of the channel long after the initial front has passed by. In addition, below a critical mass flux the steady-state solutions become unstable and time-dependent numerical simulations are able to capture the transition to periodic erosion–deposition waves observed in experiments.
Shallow granular avalanches on slopes close to repose exhibit hysteretic behaviour. For instance, when a steady-uniform granular flow is brought to rest it leaves a deposit of thickness
on a rough slope inclined at an angle
to the horizontal. However, this layer will not spontaneously start to flow again until it is inclined to a higher angle
, or the thickness is increased to
. This simple phenomenology leads to a rich variety of flows with co-existing regions of solid-like and fluid-like granular behaviour that evolve in space and time. In particular, frictional hysteresis is directly responsible for the spontaneous formation of self-channelized flows with static levees, retrogressive failures as well as erosion–deposition waves that travel through the material. This paper is motivated by the experimental observation that a travelling-wave develops, when a steady uniform flow of carborundum particles on a bed of larger glass beads, runs out to leave a deposit that is approximately equal to
. Numerical simulations using the friction law originally proposed by Edwards et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 823, 2017, pp. 278–315) and modified here, demonstrate that there are in fact two travelling waves. One that marks the trailing edge of the steady-uniform flow and another that rapidly deposits the particles, directly connecting the point of minimum dynamic friction (at thickness
) with the deposited layer. The first wave moves slightly faster than the second wave, and so there is a slowly expanding region between them in which the flow thins and the particles slow down. An exact inviscid solution for the second travelling wave is derived and it is shown that for a steady-uniform flow of thickness
it produces a deposit close to
for all inclination angles. Numerical simulations show that the two-wave structure deposits layers that are approximately equal to
for all initial thicknesses. This insensitivity to the initial conditions implies that
is a universal quantity, at least for carborundum particles on a bed of larger glass beads. Numerical simulations are therefore able to capture the complete experimental staircase procedure, which is commonly used to determine the
curves by progressively increasing the inclination of the chute. In general, however, the deposit thickness may depend on the depth of the flowing layer that generated it, so the most robust way to determine
is to measure the deposit thickness from a flow that was moving at the minimum steady-uniform velocity. Finally, some of the pathologies in earlier non-monotonic friction laws are discussed and it is explicitly shown that with these models either steadily travelling deposition waves do not form or they do not leave the correct deposit depth
Granular flows occur in a wide range of situations of practical interest to industry, in our natural environment and in our everyday lives. This paper focuses on granular flow in the so-called inertial regime, when the rheology is independent of the very large particle stiffness. Such flows have been modelled with the
-rheology, which postulates that the bulk friction coefficient
(i.e. the ratio of the shear stress to the pressure) and the solids volume fraction
are functions of the inertial number
only. Although the
-rheology has been validated in steady state against both experiments and discrete particle simulations in several different geometries, it has recently been shown that this theory is mathematically ill-posed in time-dependent problems. As a direct result, computations using this rheology may blow up exponentially, with a growth rate that tends to infinity as the discretization length tends to zero, as explicitly demonstrated in this paper for the first time. Such catastrophic instability due to ill-posedness is a common issue when developing new mathematical models and implies that either some important physics is missing or the model has not been properly formulated. In this paper an alternative to the
-rheology that does not suffer from such defects is proposed. In the framework of compressible
-dependent rheology (CIDR), new constitutive laws for the inertial regime are introduced; these match the well-established
relations in the steady-state limit and at the same time are well-posed for all deformations and all packing densities. Time-dependent numerical solutions of the resultant equations are performed to demonstrate that the new inertial CIDR model leads to numerical convergence towards physically realistic solutions that are supported by discrete element method simulations.
When a layer of static grains on a sufficiently steep slope is disturbed, an upslope-propagating erosion wave, or retrogressive failure, may form that separates the initially static material from a downslope region of flowing grains. This paper shows that a relatively simple depth-averaged avalanche model with frictional hysteresis is sufficient to capture a planar retrogressive failure that is independent of the cross-slope coordinate. The hysteresis is modelled with a non-monotonic effective basal friction law that has static, intermediate (velocity decreasing) and dynamic (velocity increasing) regimes. Both experiments and time-dependent numerical simulations show that steadily travelling retrogressive waves rapidly form in this system and a travelling wave ansatz is therefore used to derive a one-dimensional depth-averaged exact solution. The speed of the wave is determined by a critical point in the ordinary differential equation for the thickness. The critical point lies in the intermediate frictional regime, at the point where the friction exactly balances the downslope component of gravity. The retrogressive wave is therefore a sensitive test of the functional form of the friction law in this regime, where steady uniform flows are unstable and so cannot be used to determine the friction law directly. Upper and lower bounds for the existence of retrogressive waves in terms of the initial layer depth and the slope inclination are found and shown to be in good agreement with the experimentally determined phase diagram. For the friction law proposed by Edwards et al. (J. Fluid. Mech., vol. 823, 2017, pp. 278–315, J. Fluid. Mech., 2019, (submitted)) the magnitude of the wave speed is slightly under-predicted, but, for a given initial layer thickness, the exact solution accurately predicts an increase in the wave speed with higher inclinations. The model also captures the finite wave speed at the onset of retrogressive failure observed in experiments.
Filamentary structures can form within the beam of protons accelerated during the interaction of an intense laser pulse with an ultrathin foil target. Such behaviour is shown to be dependent upon the formation time of quasi-static magnetic field structures throughout the target volume and the extent of the rear surface proton expansion over the same period. This is observed via both numerical and experimental investigations. By controlling the intensity profile of the laser drive, via the use of two temporally separated pulses, both the initial rear surface proton expansion and magnetic field formation time can be varied, resulting in modification to the degree of filamentary structure present within the laser-driven proton beam.
The polymorphism of an homologous series of highly purified mixed triglycerides has been studied using powder and single crystal X-ray diffraction techniques, in conjunction with thermal analysis and infrared spectroscopy. From thermal analysis, three polymorphs were identified. Single crystals of the most stable polymorph were obtained for two members of the series, 2-acetodimyristin (14-2-14) and 2-acetodipalmitin (16-2-16). Their unit-cell and sub-cell dimensions were used to interpret the powder data, and to provide preliminary general information about the crystal packing for this polymorph. Of the two other polymorphs identified, the first one (obtained by rapid cooling of the melt) is disordered, and transforms on standing, to a second, unstable intermediate polymorph. Infrared spectroscopy showed that for at least two of the three polymorphs, the long chain acyl groups of the triglycerides are in a parallel packing arrangement.
Rapid shallow granular flows over inclined planes are often seen in nature in the form of avalanches, landslides and pyroclastic flows. In these situations the flow develops an inversely graded (large at the top) particle-size distribution perpendicular to the plane. As the surface velocity of such flows is larger than the mean velocity, the larger material is transported to the flow front. This causes size segregation in the downstream direction, resulting in a flow front composed of large particles. Since the large particles are often more frictional than the small, the mobility of the flow front is reduced, resulting in a so-called bulbous head. This study focuses on the formation and evolution of this bulbous head, which we show to emerge in both a depth-averaged continuum framework and discrete particle simulations. Furthermore, our numerical solutions of the continuum model converge to a travelling wave solution, which allows for a very efficient computation of the long-time behaviour of the flow. We use small-scale periodic discrete particle simulations to calibrate (close) our continuum framework, and validate the simple one-dimensional (1-D) model with full-scale 3-D discrete particle simulations. The comparison shows that there are conditions under which the model works surprisingly well given the strong approximations made; for example, instantaneous vertical segregation.
The spatial-intensity profile of light reflected during the interaction of an intense laser pulse with a microstructured target is investigated experimentally and the potential to apply this as a diagnostic of the interaction physics is explored numerically. Diffraction and speckle patterns are measured in the specularly reflected light in the cases of targets with regular groove and needle-like structures, respectively, highlighting the potential to use this as a diagnostic of the evolving plasma surface. It is shown, via ray-tracing and numerical modelling, that for a laser focal spot diameter smaller than the periodicity of the target structure, the reflected light patterns can potentially be used to diagnose the degree of plasma expansion, and by extension the local plasma temperature, at the focus of the intense laser light. The reflected patterns could also be used to diagnose the size of the laser focal spot during a high-intensity interaction when using a regular structure with known spacing.
Small perturbations to a steady uniform granular chute flow can grow as the material moves downslope and develop into a series of surface waves that travel faster than the bulk flow. This roll wave instability has important implications for the mitigation of hazards due to geophysical mass flows, such as snow avalanches, debris flows and landslides, because the resulting waves tend to merge and become much deeper and more destructive than the uniform flow from which they form. Natural flows are usually highly polydisperse and their dynamics is significantly complicated by the particle size segregation that occurs within them. This study investigates the kinematics of such flows theoretically and through small-scale experiments that use a mixture of large and small glass spheres. It is shown that large particles, which segregate to the surface of the flow, are always concentrated near the crests of roll waves. There are different mechanisms for this depending on the relative speed of the waves, compared to the speed of particles at the free surface, as well as on the particle concentration. If all particles at the surface travel more slowly than the waves, the large particles become concentrated as the shock-like wavefronts pass them. This is due to a concertina-like effect in the frame of the moving wave, in which large particles move slowly backwards through the crest, but travel quickly in the troughs between the crests. If, instead, some particles on the surface travel more quickly than the wave and some move slower, then, at low concentrations, large particles can move towards the wave crest from both the forward and rearward sides. This results in isolated regions of large particles that are trapped at the crest of each wave, separated by regions where the flow is thinner and free of large particles. There is also a third regime arising when all surface particles travel faster than the waves, which has large particles present everywhere but with a sharp increase in their concentration towards the wave fronts. In all cases, the significantly enhanced large particle concentration at wave crests means that such flows in nature can be especially destructive and thus particularly hazardous.
Introduction: Online medical education resources are widely used in emergency medicine (EM), but strategies to assess quality remain elusive. We previously derived the Medical Education Translational Resources: Impact and Quality (METRIQ) 8 instrument to evaluate quality in medical education blog posts. Methods: As part of a subsequent validation study (The METRIQ Blog Study), a mixed-methods usability analysis was performed to obtain user feedback on the quality assessment instrument in order to improve its clarity and reliability. Participants in the METRIQ Study were first asked to rate five blog posts using the METRIQ-8 Score. They then evaluated the METRIQ-8 instruments ease of use and likelihood of being recommended to others using a 7-point Likert scale and free text comments. Participants were also asked to flag and comment on items within the score that they felt were unclear. Global usability ratings were summarized using median scores or percent rated unclear. We used ANOVA to test associations between ease of use and demographic factors. A thematic analysis was performed on the comments. Results: 309 EM medical students, residents, and attendings completed the survey. Global ratings were generally very favorable (median 2 [IQR 2-3], with 7 being the lowest score) for ease of use and likelihood of recommendation, and did not vary by participants country of origin, frequency of blog use, or learner level. Participants stated that the score was structured, systematic, and straightforward. They found it useful for junior learners and for guiding blog creation. Four questions in the score (questions 2, 4, 5, and 7) were identified by 10% of subjects to be unclear. Thematic analysis of comments identified suggested four main themes for improving the score: adding clearer definitions with marking rubrics; shortening the 7-point scale; adding items evaluating blog post presentation and utility; and, rephrasing the wording of certain questions for clarity. Conclusion: A mixed methods usability analysis of the METRIQ-8 instrument for assessing blog quality was globally well received by EM medical students, residents, and attendings. Qualitative analyses revealed multiple areas to improve the instruments clarity and usability. The METRIQ score is a promising instrument for evaluating the quality of blogs; further development and testing is needed to improve its utility.
W49 A is a star-forming region (SFR) found in the constellation of Aquila. It contains 3 active regions: W49 North (W49 N), W49 South West (W49 SW) and W49 South (W49 S). We present preliminary results from two epochs (e-)MERLIN observations of all ground-state OH masers towards the star-forming region (SFR) complex W49 A. The first epoch of observations was done in full-polarization mode with MERLIN in 2005 while the second epoch was obtained only in dual circular polarization during the test observations of the upgraded e-MERLIN in 2013. The overall maser spatial distributions in both epochs are in good agreement. We found several new high velocity maser features up to +34 km s−1 and −28 km s−1. The magnetic field strengths are between 1.1 to 10.8 mG. All three sources show evidence of magnetic field reversal.
In recent years considerable progress has been made in the continuum modelling of granular flows, in particular the
-rheology, which links the local viscosity in a flow to the strain rate and pressure through the non-dimensional inertial number
. This formulation greatly benefits from its similarity to the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations as it allows many existing numerical methods to be used. Unfortunately, this system of equations is ill posed when the inertial number is too high or too low. The consequence of ill posedness is that the growth rate of small perturbations tends to infinity in the high wavenumber limit. Due to this, numerical solutions are grid dependent and cannot be taken as being physically realistic. In this paper changes to the functional form of the
curve are considered, in order to maximise the range of well-posed inertial numbers, while preserving the overall structure of the equations. It is found that when the inertial number is low there exist curves for which the equations are guaranteed to be well posed. However when the inertial number is very large the equations are found to be ill posed regardless of the functional dependence of
. A new
curve, which is inspired by the analysis of the governing equations and by experimental data, is proposed here. In order to test this regularised rheology, transient granular flows on inclined planes are studied. It is found that simulations of flows, which show signs of ill posedness with unregularised models, are numerically stable and match key experimental observations when the regularised model is used. This paper details two-dimensional transient computations of decelerating flows where the inertial number tends to zero, high-speed flows that have large inertial numbers, and flows which develop into granular rollwaves. This is the first time that granular rollwaves have been simulated in two dimensions, which represents a major step towards the simulation of other complex granular flows.
Schistosomiasis in China has been substantially reduced due to an effective control programme employing various measures including bovine and human chemotherapy, and the removal of bovines from endemic areas. To fulfil elimination targets, it will be necessary to identify other possible reservoir hosts for Schistosoma japonicum and include them in future control efforts. This study determined the infection prevalence of S. japonicum in rodents (0–9·21%), dogs (0–18·37%) and goats (6·9–46·4%) from the Dongting Lake area of Hunan province, using a combination of traditional coproparasitological techniques (miracidial hatching technique and Kato-Katz thick smear technique) and molecular methods [quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR)]. We found a much higher prevalence in goats than previously recorded in this setting. Cattle and water buffalo were also examined using the same procedures and all were found to be infected, emphasising the occurrence of active transmission. qPCR and ddPCR were much more sensitive than the coproparasitological procedures with both KK and MHT considerably underestimating the true prevalence in all animals surveyed. The high level of S. japonicum prevalence in goats indicates that they are likely important reservoirs in schistosomiasis transmission, necessitating their inclusion as targets of control, if the goal of elimination is to be achieved in China.
Snow avalanches are typically initiated on marginally stable slopes with a surface layer of fresh snow that may easily be incorporated into them. The erosion of snow at the front is fundamental to the dynamics and growth of snow avalanches and they may rapidly bulk up, making them much more destructive than the initial release. Snow may also deposit at the rear, base and sides of the flow and the net balance of erosion and deposition determines whether an avalanche grows or decays. In this paper, small-scale analogue experiments are performed on a rough inclined plane with a static erodible layer of carborundum grains. The static layer is prepared by slowly closing down a flow from a hopper at the top of the slope. This leaves behind a uniform-depth layer of thickness
at a given slope inclination. Due to the hysteresis of the rough bed friction law, this layer can then be inclined to higher angles provided that the thickness does not exceed
, which is the maximum depth that can be held static on a rough bed. An avalanche is then initiated on top of the static layer by releasing a fixed volume of carborundum grains. Dependent on the slope inclination and the depth of the static layer three different behaviours are observed. For initial deposit depths above
, the avalanche rapidly grows in size by progressively entraining more and more grains at the front and sides, and depositing relatively few particles at the base and tail. This leaves behind a trough eroded to a depth below the initial deposit surface and whose maximal areal extent has a triangular shape. Conversely, a release on a shallower slope, with a deposit of thickness
, leads to net deposition. This time the avalanche leaves behind a levee-flanked channel, the floor of which lies above the level of the initial deposit and narrows downstream. It is also possible to generate avalanches that have a perfect balance between net erosion and deposition. These avalanches propagate perfectly steadily downslope, leaving a constant-width trail with levees flanking a shallow trough cut slightly lower than the initial deposit surface. The cross-section of the trail therefore represents an exact redistribution of the mass reworked from the initial static layer. Granular flow problems involving erosion and deposition are notoriously difficult, because there is no accepted method of modelling the phase transition between static and moving particles. Remarkably, it is shown in this paper that by combining Pouliquen & Forterre’s (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 453, 2002, pp. 133–151) extended friction law with the depth-averaged
-rheology of Gray & Edwards (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 755, 2014, pp. 503–544) it is possible to develop a two-dimensional shallow-water-like avalanche model that qualitatively captures all of the experimentally observed behaviour. Furthermore, the computed wavespeed, wave peak height and stationary layer thickness, as well as the distance travelled by decaying avalanches, are all in good quantitative agreement with the experiments. This model is therefore likely to have important practical implications for modelling the initiation, growth and decay of snow avalanches for hazard assessment and risk mitigation.
Introduction: Hospital shootings are rare events that pose extreme and immediate risk to staff, patients and visitors. In 2015, the Ontario Hospital Association mandated all hospitals devise an armed assailant Code Silver protocol, an alert issued to mitigate risk and manage casualties. We describe the design and implementation of ASSIST (Active Shooter Simulation In-Situ Training), an institutional, full-scale hybrid simulation exercise to test hospital-wide response and readiness for an active shooter event, and identify latent safety threats (LSTs) related to the high-stakes alert and transport of internal trauma patients. Methods: A hospital-wide in-situ simulation was conducted at a Level 1 trauma centre in downtown Toronto. The two-hour exercise tested a draft Code Silver policy created by the hospital’s disaster planning committee, to identify missing elements and challenges with protocol implementation. The scenario consisted of a shooting during a hospital meeting with three casualties: a manikin with life-threatening head and abdomen gunshot wounds (GSWs), a standardized patient (SP) with hypotension from an abdominal GSW, and a second SP with minor injuries and significant psychological distress. The exercise piloted the use of a novel emergency department (ED)-based medical exfiltration team to transport internal victims to the trauma bay. The on-call trauma team provided medical care. Ethnographic observation of response by municipal police, hospital security, logistics and medical personnel was completed. LSTs were evaluated and categorized using video framework analysis. Feasibility was measured through debriefings and impact on ED workflow. Results: Seventy-six multidisciplinary medical and logistical staff and learners participated in this exercise. Using a framework analysis, the following LSTs were identified: 1) Significant communication difficulties within the shooting area, 2) Safe access and transport for internal casualties, 3) Difficulty accessing hospital resources (blood bank) 4) Challenges coordinating response with external agencies (police, EMS) and 5) Delay in setting up an off-site command centre. Conclusion: In situ simulation represents a novel approach to the development of Code Silver alert processes. Findings from ethnographic observations and a video-based analysis form a framework to address safety, logistical and medical response considerations.
Geophysical granular flows, such as avalanches, debris flows, lahars and pyroclastic flows, are always strongly influenced by the basal topography that they flow over. In particular, localised bumps or obstacles can generate rapid changes in the flow thickness and velocity, or shock waves, which dissipate significant amounts of energy. Understanding how a granular material is affected by the underlying topography is therefore crucial for hazard mitigation purposes, for example to improve the design of deflecting or catching dams for snow avalanches. Moreover, the interactions with solid boundaries can also have important applications in industrial processes. In this paper, small-scale experiments are performed to investigate the flow of a granular avalanche over a two-dimensional smooth symmetrical bump. The experiments show that, depending on the initial conditions, two different steady-state regimes can be observed: either the formation of a detached jet downstream of the bump, or a shock upstream of it. The transition between the two cases can be controlled by adding varying amounts of erodible particles in front of the obstacle. A depth-averaged terrain-following avalanche theory that is formulated in curvilinear coordinates is used to model the system. The results show good agreement with the experiments for both regimes. For the case of a shock, time-dependent numerical simulations of the full system show the evolution to the equilibrium state, as well as the deposition of particles upstream of the bump when the inflow ceases. The terrain-following theory is compared to a standard depth-averaged avalanche model in an aligned Cartesian coordinate system. For this very sensitive problem, it is shown that the steady-shock regime is captured significantly better by the terrain-following avalanche model, and that the standard theory is unable to predict the take-off point of the jet. To retain the practical simplicity of using Cartesian coordinates, but have the improved predictive power of the terrain-following model, a coordinate mapping is used to transform the terrain-following equations from curvilinear to Cartesian coordinates. The terrain-following model, in Cartesian coordinates, makes identical predictions to the original curvilinear formulation, but is much simpler to implement.
Geophysical granular flows, such as landslides, pyroclastic flows and snow avalanches, consist of particles with varying surface roughnesses or shapes that have a tendency to segregate during flow due to size differences. Such segregation leads to the formation of regions with different frictional properties, which in turn can feed back on the bulk flow. This paper introduces a well-posed depth-averaged model for these segregation-mobility feedback effects. The full segregation equation for dense granular flows is integrated through the avalanche thickness by assuming inversely graded layers with large particles above fines, and a Bagnold shear profile. The resulting large particle transport equation is then coupled to depth-averaged equations for conservation of mass and momentum, with the feedback arising through a basal friction law that is composition dependent, implying greater friction where there are more large particles. The new system of equations includes viscous terms in the momentum balance, which are derived from the
-rheology for dense granular flows and represent a singular perturbation to previous models. Linear stability calculations of the steady uniform base state demonstrate the significance of these higher-order terms, which ensure that, unlike the inviscid equations, the growth rates remain bounded everywhere. The new system is therefore mathematically well posed. Two-dimensional simulations of bidisperse material propagating down an inclined plane show the development of an unstable large-rich flow front, which subsequently breaks into a series of finger-like structures, each bounded by coarse-grained lateral levees. The key properties of the fingers are independent of the grid resolution and are controlled by the physical viscosity. This process of segregation-induced finger formation is observed in laboratory experiments, and numerical computations are in qualitative agreement.
Despite documented increases in emergency department (ED) mental health (MH) presentations, there are inconsistent findings on the characteristics of patients with repeat presentations to pediatric EDs (PEDs) for MH concerns. Our study sought to explore the characteristics of MH patients with repeat PED visits and determine predictors of return visits, of earlier repeat visits, and of more frequent repeat visits.
We examined data collected prospectively in a clinical database looking at MH presentations to a crisis intervention program housed within a PED from October 2006 to December 2011. Predictive models based on demographic and clinical variables were constructed using logistic, Cox, and negative binomial regression.
A total of 4,080 presentations to the PED were made by the 2,900 children and youth. Repeat visits accounted for almost half (45.8%) of all presentations. Multivariable analysis identified five variables that independently predicted greater odds of having repeat presentations, greater risk of earlier repeat presentations, and greater risk of frequent repeat presentations. The five variables were: female, living in the metropolitan community close to the PED, being in the care of child protective services, taking psychotropic medications, and presenting with an actionable need in the area of mood disturbances.
Repeat visits account for a large portion of all MH presentations to the PED. Furthermore, several patient characteristics are significant predictors of repeat PED use and of repeating use sooner and more frequently. Further research is needed to examine interventions targeting this patient group to ensure appropriate MH patient management.
Introduction: Ideal management of alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) incorporates a symptom driven approach, whereby patients are regularly assessed using a standardized scoring system (Clinical Institute Withdrawal Assessment for Alcohol-Revised; CIWA-Ar) and treated according to severity. Among the domains assessed by the CIWA-Ar, tremor is the most objective indicator of withdrawal severity, however, the ability of clinicians to reliably quantify tremor is highly dependent on experience. The objective of this study was to prospectively validate an objective, reliable tool to standardize and quantify the severity of alcohol withdrawal tremor using the built-in accelerometer of an iOS application. Methods: A prospective observational study of patients ≥18 years presenting to an academic emergency department in alcohol withdrawal was conducted from Oct 2014 to Aug 2015. Assessments were videotaped by a research assistant and subsequently reviewed by 3 clinical experts, blinded to the primary clinical assessment. Tremor severity was scored using the 8-point CIWA scale (0=no tremor, 7=severe tremor). Accelerometer derived results were compared to expert assessments of each video. Inter-rater agreement was estimated using Cohen’s kappa (k) statistic. Results: 76 patients with 78 tremor recordings were included. Accelerometer derived tremor scores matched exactly with expert assessor scores in 36 (46.2%) cases, within 1 point for 73 (93.6%) cases and differed by ≥ 2 points in 5 (6.4%) cases. The overall kappa for agreement within 1 point for tremor severity was ‘very good’ 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.99). Conclusion: iOS accelerometer based assessment of the tremor component of the CIWA-Ar score is reliable and has potential to more accurately assess the severity of patients in alcohol withdrawal. We anticipate this resource will be easily disseminated and will impact and improve the care of patients with alcohol withdrawal.