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Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is defined as a reproductive endocrine disease that results in a low-grade inflammatory and pro-oxidant state. Dietary factors, including n-3 fatty acids, may have a key role in improving metabolic disorders in PCOS patients. The present study aimed to investigate the influence of n-3 fatty acid supplementation on inflammatory and oxidative stress (OS) markers in patients with PCOS. A systematic literature search of Medline/PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Scopus and Lilacs, until November 2019, was conducted. Randomised clinical trials that reported inflammatory and OS markers as endpoints in women with PCOS receiving n-3 fatty acid supplementation were included. The pooled estimates of the weighted mean differences (WMD) and the standard mean differences (SMD) were calculated. Random effects models were adopted to measure the pooled outcomes. Among the 323 studies retrieved, ten fulfilled the inclusion criteria for a meta-analysis. We founded a significant decrease in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (SMD –0·29 (95 % CI –0·56, –0·02) mg/l) and an increase in adiponectin (WMD 1·42 (95 % CI 1·09, 1·76) ng/ml) concentrations in the intervention group when compared with the placebo group. No statistically significant results were found in the meta-analysis for visfatin, nitric oxide, GSH or malondialdehyde levels or total antioxidant capacity. The data suggest that supplementation of n-3 fatty acids could reduce the inflammatory state in women with PCOS, through a decrease in hs-CRP and an increase in adiponectin levels.
Accurate estimates of methane (CH4) production by cattle in different contexts are essential to developing mitigation strategies in different regions. We aimed to: (i) compile a database of CH4 emissions from Brazilian cattle studies, (ii) evaluate prediction precision and accuracy of extant proposed equations for cattle and (iii) develop specialized equations for predicting CH4 emissions from cattle in tropical conditions. Data of nutrient intake, diet composition and CH4 emissions were compiled from in vivo studies using open-circuit respiratory chambers, SF6 technique or the GreenFeed® system. A final dataset containing intake, diet composition, digestibility and CH4 emissions (677 individual animal observations, 40 treatment means) obtained from 38 studies conducted in Brazil was used. The dataset was divided into three groups: all animals (GEN), lactating dairy cows (LAC) and growing cattle and non-lactating dairy cows (GCNL). A total of 54 prediction equations available in the literature were evaluated. A total of 96 multiple linear models were developed for predicting CH4 production (MJ/day). The predictor variables were DM intake (DMI), gross energy (GE) intake, BW, DMI as proportion of BW, NDF concentration, ether extract (EE) concentration, dietary proportion of concentrate and GE digestibility. Model selection criteria were significance (P < 0.05) and variance inflation factor lower than three for all predictors. Each model performance was evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2006) Tier 2 method performed better for GEN and GCNL than LAC and overpredicted CH4 production for all datasets. Increasing complexity of the newly developed models resulted in greater performance. The GCNL had a greater number of equations with expanded possibilities to correct for diet characteristics such as EE and NDF concentrations and dietary proportion of concentrate. For the LAC dataset, equations based on intake and animal characteristics were developed. The equations developed in the present study can be useful for accurate and precise estimation of CH4 emissions from cattle in tropical conditions. These equations could improve accuracy of greenhouse gas inventories for tropical countries. The results provide a better understanding of the dietary and animal characteristics that influence the production of enteric CH4 in tropical production systems.
It has been claimed that functional somatic syndromes share a common etiology. This prospective population-based study assessed whether the same variables predict new onsets of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and fibromyalgia (FM).
The study included 152 180 adults in the Dutch Lifelines study who reported the presence/absence of relevant syndromes at baseline and follow-up. They were screened at baseline for physical and psychological disorders, socio-demographic, psycho-social and behavioral variables. At follow-up (mean 2.4 years) new onsets of each syndrome were identified by self-report. We performed separate analyses for the three syndromes including participants free of the relevant syndrome or its key symptom at baseline. LASSO logistic regressions were applied to identify which of the 102 baseline variables predicted new onsets of each syndrome.
There were 1595 (1.2%), 296 (0.2%) and 692 (0.5%) new onsets of IBS, CFS, and FM, respectively. LASSO logistic regression selected 26, 7 and 19 predictors for IBS, CFS and FM, respectively. Four predictors were shared by all three syndromes, four predicted IBS and FM and two predicted IBS and CFS but 28 predictors were specific to a single syndrome. CFS was more distinct from IBS and FM, which predicted each other.
Syndrome-specific predictors were more common than shared ones and these predictors might form a better starting point to unravel the heterogeneous etiologies of these syndromes than the current approach based on symptom patterns. The close relationship between IBS and FM is striking and requires further research.
Published research regarding the relationship between lipid levels in affective disorders has been contradictory. Additionally, most studies correlating psychosis to lipid serum concentrations only concern schizophrenic patients.
To access the relationship between serum lipid levels with the diagnosis and pathophysiology of affective disorders.
Diagnostic data (ICD–10: F31–32), including mood and psychotic features, were prospectively collected for all patients admitted at the affective disorder ward at Centro Hospitalar Psiquiátrico de Lisboa (Portugal), during the third trimester of 2016. Serum concentrations of triglycerides and total/HDL/LDL cholesterol were evaluated using standard laboratory tests. Statistical analysis was performed for possible correlations between serum lipid levels and:
– different stages of bipolar disorder (BD);
– elevated versus depressive mood (unipolar and bipolar);
– depressive mood (BD versus non-BD);
– psychotic features.
Sixty-three patients admitted were enrolled in this study: 47 presented with BD (32 manic, 10 depressives and 5 mixed episodes) and 16 presented depressive disorders. Statistical analysis (R software) revealed that depressed bipolar patients had significantly higher triglyceride (P = 0.026), total and LDL cholesterol (P = 0.525) levels than other states; mixed episodes presented higher HDL levels (P = 0.542). Although not significant, manic patients’ HDL levels were consistently elevated compared to depressive ones, whom presented with lower values overall. Finally, when adjusted for age, psychotic patients showed lower levels of total (P = 0.031) and LDL cholesterol (P = 0.052) compared to non-psychotic patients.
There is a potential link between serum lipid levels and diagnosis/psychopathology of affective disorders. Further research is needed to characterize its pathophysiologic relevance.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Although, disturbances of sleep, as well as aggressiveness, have been described in patients with mood disorders, these patients may not be aware of them.
To access the personal perception of sleep, disturbances and aggressiveness in patients with mood disorders, admitted to an acute psychiatric ward.
Diagnostic data (ICD-10: F31–33), including mood evaluation, were prospectively collected for all patients admitted at the affective disorder ward at Centro Hospitalar Psiquiátrico de Lisboa (Portugal), during the third trimester of 2016. Then, 2 auto-questionnaires – Athens insomnia scale (AIS) and Buss and Perry aggression scale (both validated to the Portuguese population) – were applied to these patients. Statistical analysis was performed for possible correlations between patients’ mood and the questionnaires’ scores, using R software.
Thirty-eight patients admitted were enrolled in this study: 28 with bipolar disorder (19 manic, 4 depressive and 5 mixed episodes), and 10 with depressive disorder. Depressed patients presented statistically higher values in the AIS (average = 20), compared to manic (14) and mixed ones (17.2) (P = 0.031). However, there were no statistical differences found between depressed patients (bipolar versus non-bipolar). Even though manic patients presented an increased average score in the Buss and Perry questionnaire (both total–65; but also sub-scores), these values were not significantly different than depressed (60) or mixed patients’ scores (57.4).
Even though some symptoms (like sleep or aggressiveness) seem to be relevant to the clinics, patients with affective disorders do not seem to be aware these disturbances, and therefore are not able to acknowledge their relevance.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging studies in bipolar disorder (BD) have evidenced changes in functional connectivity (FC) in brain areas associated with emotion processing, but how these changes vary with mood state and specific clinical symptoms is not fully understood.
We investigated resting-state FC between a priori regions of interest (ROIs) from the default-mode network and key structures for emotion processing and regulation in 27 BD patients and 27 matched healthy controls. We further compared connectivity patterns in subgroups of 15 euthymic and 12 non-euthymic patients and tested for correlations of the connectivity strength with measures of mood, anxiety, and rumination tendency. No correction for multiple comparisons was applied given the small population sample and pre-defined target ROIs.
Overall, regardless of mood state, BD patients exhibited increased FC of the left amygdala with left sgACC and PCC, relative to controls. In addition, non-euthymic BD patients showed distinctive decrease in FC between right amygdala and sgACC, whereas euthymic patients showed lower FC between PCC and sgACC. Euthymic patients also displayed increased FC between sgACC and right VLPFC. The sgACC–PCC and sgACC–left amygdala connections were modulated by rumination tendency in non-euthymic patients, whereas the sgACC-VLPFC connection was modulated by both the current mood and tendency to ruminate.
Our results suggest that sgACC-amygdala coupling is critically affected during mood episodes, and that FC of sgACC play a pivotal role in mood normalization through its interactions with the VLPFC and PCC. However, these preliminary findings require replication with larger samples of patients.
In the context of untimely access to community formal services, unmet needs of persons with dementia (PwD) and their carers may compromise their quality of life.
The Actifcare EU-JPND project (www.actifcare.eu) focuses on access to and (non) utilization of dementia formal care in eight countries (The Netherlands, Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, Italy, Portugal), as related to unmet needs and quality of life. Evaluations included systematic reviews, qualitative explorations, and a European cohort study (PwD in early/intermediate phases and their primary carers; n = 453 days; 1 year follow-up). Preliminary Portuguese results are presented here (FCT-JPND-HC/0001/2012).
(1) extensive systematic searches on access to/utilization of services; (2) focus groups of PwD, carers and health/social professionals; (3) prospective study (n = 66 days from e.g., primary care, hospital outpatient services, Alzheimer Portugal).
In Portugal, nationally representative data is scarce regarding health/social services utilization in dementia. There are important barriers to access to community services, according to users, carers and professionals, whose views not always coincide. The Portuguese cohort participants were 66 PwD (62.1% female, 77.3 ± 6.2 years, 55.5% Alzheimer's/mixed subtypes, MMSE 17.8 ± 4.8, CDR1 89.4%) and 66 carers (66.7% female, 64.9 ± 15.0 years, 56.1% spouses), with considerable unmet needs in some domains.
All Actifcare milestones are being reached. The consortium is now analyzing international differences in (un) timely access to services and its impact on quality of life and needs for care (e.g., formal community support is weaker in Portugal than in many European countries). National best-practice recommendations in dementia are also in preparation.
Abstract submitted on behalf of the Actifcare Eu-JPND consortium.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
Positive symptoms are a useful predictor of aggression in schizophrenia. Although a similar pattern of abnormal brain structures related to both positive symptoms and aggression has been reported, this observation has not yet been confirmed in a single sample.
To study the association between positive symptoms and aggression in schizophrenia on a neurobiological level, a prospective meta-analytic approach was employed to analyze harmonized structural neuroimaging data from 10 research centers worldwide. We analyzed brain MRI scans from 902 individuals with a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia and 952 healthy controls.
The result identified a widespread cortical thickness reduction in schizophrenia compared to their controls. Two separate meta-regression analyses revealed that a common pattern of reduced cortical gray matter thickness within the left lateral temporal lobe and right midcingulate cortex was significantly associated with both positive symptoms and aggression.
These findings suggested that positive symptoms such as formal thought disorder and auditory misperception, combined with cognitive impairments reflecting difficulties in deploying an adaptive control toward perceived threats, could escalate the likelihood of aggression in schizophrenia.
Epidemiological studies have found coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Thus, the aim of this randomised, cross-over single-blind study was to investigate the effects of regular coffee, regular coffee with sugar and decaffeinated coffee consumption on glucose metabolism and incretin hormones. Seventeen healthy men participated in five trials each, during which they consumed coffee (decaffeinated, regular (containing caffeine) or regular with sugar) or water (with or without sugar). After 1 h of each intervention, they received an oral glucose tolerance test with one intravenous dose of [1-13C]glucose. The Oral Dose Intravenous Label Experiment was applied and glucose and insulin levels were interpreted using a stable isotope two-compartment minimal model. A mixed-model procedure (PROC MIXED), with subject as random effect and time as repeated measure, was used to compare the effects of the beverages on glucose metabolism and incretin parameters (glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP)) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)). Insulin sensitivity was higher with decaffeinated coffee than with water (P<0·05). Regular coffee with sugar did not significantly affect glucose, insulin, C-peptide and incretin hormones, compared with water with sugar. Glucose, insulin, C-peptide, GLP-1 and GIP levels were not statistically different after regular and decaffeinated coffee compared with water. Our findings demonstrated that the consumption of decaffeinated coffee improves insulin sensitivity without changing incretin hormones levels. There was no short-term adverse effect on glucose homoeostasis, after an oral glucose challenge, attributable to the consumption of regular coffee with sugar.
Urban slums provide suitable conditions for infestation by rats, which harbour and shed a wide diversity of zoonotic pathogens including helminths. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with the probability and intensity of infection of helminths of the digestive tract in an urban slum population of Rattus norvegicus. Among 299 rats, eleven species/groups of helminths were identified, of which Strongyloides sp., Nippostrongylus brasiliensis and, the human pathogen, Angiostrongylus cantonensis were the most frequent (97, 41 and 39%, respectively). Sex interactions highlighted behavioural differences between males and females, as eg males were more likely to be infected with N. brasiliensis where rat signs were present, and males presented more intense infections of Strongyloides sp. Moreover, rats in poor body condition had higher intensities of N. brasiliensis. We describe a high global richness of parasites in R. norvegicus, including five species known to cause disease in humans. Among these, A. cantonensis was found in high prevalence and it was ubiquitous in the study area – knowledge which is of public health importance. A variety of environmental, demographic and body condition variables were associated with helminth species infection of rats, suggesting a comparable variety of risk factors for humans.
The house mouse (Mus musculus) and the black rat (Rattus rattus) are reservoir hosts for zoonotic pathogens, several of which cause neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Studies of the prevalence of these NTD-causing zoonotic pathogens, in house mice and black rats from tropical residential areas are scarce. Three hundred and two house mice and 161 black rats were trapped in 2013 from two urban neighbourhoods and a rural village in Yucatan, Mexico, and subsequently tested for Trypanosoma cruzi, Hymenolepis diminuta and Leptospira interrogans. Using the polymerase chain reaction we detected T. cruzi DNA in the hearts of 4·9% (8/165) and 6·2% (7/113) of house mice and black rats, respectively. We applied the sedimentation technique to detect eggs of H. diminuta in 0·5% (1/182) and 14·2% (15/106) of house mice and black rats, respectively. Through the immunofluorescent imprint method, L. interrogans was identified in 0·9% (1/106) of rat kidney impressions. Our results suggest that the black rat could be an important reservoir for T. cruzi and H. diminuta in the studied sites. Further studies examining seasonal and geographical patterns could increase our knowledge on the epidemiology of these pathogens in Mexico and the risk to public health posed by rodents.
Kefir is fermented milk produced from grains that comprise a specific and complex mixture of bacteria and yeasts that live in a symbiotic association. The nutritional composition of kefir varies according to the milk composition, the microbiological composition of the grains used, the time/temperature of fermentation and storage conditions. Kefir originates from the Caucasus and Tibet. Recently, kefir has raised interest in the scientific community due to its numerous beneficial effects on health. Currently, several scientific studies have supported the health benefits of kefir, as reported historically as a probiotic drink with great potential in health promotion, as well as being a safe and inexpensive food, easily produced at home. Regular consumption of kefir has been associated with improved digestion and tolerance to lactose, antibacterial effect, hypocholesterolaemic effect, control of plasma glucose, anti-hypertensive effect, anti-inflammatory effect, antioxidant activity, anti-carcinogenic activity, anti-allergenic activity and healing effects. A large proportion of the studies that support these findings were conducted in vitro or in animal models. However, there is a need for systematic clinical trials to better understand the effects of regular use of kefir as part of a diet, and for their effect on preventing diseases. Thus, the present review focuses on the nutritional and microbiological composition of kefir and presents relevant findings associated with the beneficial effects of kefir on human and animal health.
CVD affect a large proportion of the world’s population, with dyslipidaemia as the major risk factor. The regular consumption of both probiotic bacteria and yeast has been associated with improvement in the serum lipid profile. Thus, the present review aims to describe and discuss the potential mechanisms responsible for the hypocholesterolaemic effect of regular consumption of probiotic bacteria and yeast. Regarding the hypocholesterolaemic effect of probiotic bacteria, the potential mechanisms responsible include: deconjugation of bile salts; modulation of lipid metabolism; and decreased absorption of intestinal cholesterol through co-precipitation of intestinal cholesterol with the deconjugated bile salts, incorporation and assimilation of cholesterol in the cell membrane of the probiotics, intestinal conversion of cholesterol in coprostanol, and inhibition of the expression of the intestinal cholesterol transporter Niemann–Pick C1 like 1 (NPC1L1) in the enterocytes. The potential mechanisms responsible for the hypocholesterolaemic effect of probiotic yeasts include: deconjugation of bile salts; co-precipitation of intestinal cholesterol with the deconjugated bile salts; incorporation and assimilation of cholesterol in the cell membrane; and inhibition of hepatic cholesterol synthesis. The regular consumption of probiotic bacteria and yeast, as a non-pharmaceutical approach to help manage cardiovascular risk, holds promise, according to the beneficial hypocholesterolaemic effects described herein. However, the hypocholesterolaemic effects vary according to the strains used, the physiological state of the host, and the type of diet to which the probiotics are added. Further studies are necessary to fill the gaps with regard to the knowledge related to this topic.
Urban slum environments in the tropics are conducive to the proliferation and the spread of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens to humans. Calodium hepaticum (Brancroft, 1893) is a zoonotic nematode known to infect a variety of mammalian hosts, including humans. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are considered the most important mammalian host of C. hepaticum and are therefore a potentially useful species to inform estimates of the risk to humans living in urban slum environments. There is a lack of studies systematically evaluating the role of demographic and environmental factors that influence both carriage and intensity of infection of C. hepaticum in rodents from urban slum areas within tropical regions. Carriage and the intensity of infection of C. hepaticum were studied in 402 Norway rats over a 2-year period in an urban slum in Salvador, Brazil. Overall, prevalence in Norway rats was 83% (337/402). Independent risk factors for C. hepaticum carriage in R. norvegicus were age and valley of capture. Of those infected the proportion with gross liver involvement (i.e. >75% of the liver affected, a proxy for a high level intensity of infection), was low (8%, 26/337). Sixty soil samples were collected from ten locations to estimate levels of environmental contamination and provide information on the potential risk to humans of contracting C. hepaticum from the environment. Sixty percent (6/10) of the sites were contaminated with C. hepaticum. High carriage levels of C. hepaticum within Norway rats and sub-standard living conditions within slum areas may increase the risk to humans of exposure to the infective eggs of C. hepaticum. This study supports the need for further studies to assess whether humans are becoming infected within this community and whether C. hepaticum is posing a significant risk to human health.
Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by bacteria of the genus Leptospira. The disease is globally distributed and a major public health concern. The Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) is the main reservoir of the pathogen in urban slums of developing and developed countries. The potential routes of intra-specific leptospire transmission in rats are largely unknown. Herein, we identified pathogenic Leptospira spp. in breast tissue and milk of naturally infected rats. We examined kidney, breast tissue and milk from 24 lactating rats for the presence of leptospires using immunofluorescence, immunohistochemistry, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and scanning electronic microscopy. All 24 rats had evidence for Leptospira in the kidneys, indicating chronic carriage. The majority of kidney-positive rats had detectable leptospires in milk (18, 75%) and breast tissue (16, 67%), as evidenced by immunofluorescence assay and immunohistochemistry. Four (17%) milk samples and two (8%) breast tissue samples were positive by quantitative real-time PCR. Scanning electron microscopy confirmed the presence of leptospires in breast tissue. No major pathological changes in breast tissue were found. This study, for the first time, identified leptospires in the milk and breast tissue of wild Norway rats, suggesting the possibility of milk-borne transmission of leptospirosis to neonates.
I deficiency is still a worldwide public health problem, with children being especially vulnerable. No nationwide study had been conducted to assess the I status of Spanish children, and thus an observational, multicentre and cross-sectional study was conducted in Spain to assess the I status and thyroid function in schoolchildren aged 6–7 years. The median urinary I (UI) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels in whole blood were used to assess the I status and thyroid function, respectively. A FFQ was used to determine the consumption of I-rich foods. A total of 1981 schoolchildren (52 % male) were included. The median UI was 173 μg/l, and 17·9 % of children showed UI<100 μg/l. The median UI was higher in males (180·8 v. 153·6 μg/l; P<0·001). Iodised salt (IS) intake at home was 69·8 %. IS consumption and intakes of ≥2 glasses of milk or 1 cup of yogurt/d were associated with significantly higher median UI. Median TSH was 0·90 mU/l and was higher in females (0·98 v. 0·83; P<0·001). In total, 0·5 % of children had known hypothyroidism (derived from the questionnaire) and 7·6 % had TSH levels above reference values. Median TSH was higher in schoolchildren with family history of hypothyroidism. I intake was adequate in Spanish schoolchildren. However, no correlation was found between TSH and median UI in any geographical area. The prevalence of TSH above reference values was high and its association with thyroid autoimmunity should be determined. Further assessment of thyroid autoimmunity in Spanish schoolchildren is desirable.
Sixteen cows in early lactation were randomly distributed into two groups in order to evaluate the effects of mammary biopsies and increased milking frequency on tissue characteristics, post-biopsy udder health and histology. One group was milked twice a day (2×) starting on the 2nd day after calving, until 28 days in milk (DIM). The other group was milked four times a day (4×) from two to 21 DIM, and twice a day (2×) from 22 to 28 DIM. On days 2, 7, 14, 21, and 28 postpartum, one fragment of secretory tissue was collected from one mammary quarter at a time. Collections were alternated between the four mammary quarters per collection day. A total of 80 mammary tissue samples were collected. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of the tissues were conducted by histologic examination. Animal health was assessed by observation of feed intake behavior immediately after biopsy, and weight and body condition score before and one week after biopsy. Udder health was assessed daily from calving to 60 DIM with California Mastitis Test (CMT) and by noting alterations in the milk such as blood, milk clots, blood clots, clinical signs of mastitis. Milk composition and somatic cell count (SCC) were analyzed before and after the biopsies. Milk production was evaluated before biopsy, on the day of biopsy, and after the biopsy. An average of 10 fields at 40× magnification was obtained from each sample. There were no evident changes in mammary morphology as a result of milking two or four times/day at any of the evaluated time points. Biopsy wounds healed rapidly without infection. Intramammary bleeding and CMT alterations were observed in 96% and 75% of the biopsied mammary quarters, respectively. Clinical mastitis was diagnosed in 12% of the biopsied quarters. Different milking frequencies had no effect on the frequency and duration of post-biopsy alterations. Milk production decreased after biopsies done on days 2 for 2× and 4× groups, but it returned to pre-biopsy values within 1 day. Milk composition and SCC were affected transiently. Increased milking frequency did not influence udder health. Post-biopsy recovery was rapid and the procedure proved effective without damaging the cows’ health.
Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers.
A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004–2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011–2013 sample.
Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80–0.82 in 2004–2009 and 0.77 in the 2011–2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2–33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004–2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011–2013 validation sample.
Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.
In traditional transit timing variations (TTVs) analysis of multi-planetary systems, the individual TTVs are first derived from transit fitting and later modelled using n-body dynamic simulations to constrain planetary masses. We show that fitting simultaneously the transit light curves with the system dynamics (photo-dynamical model) increases the precision of the TTV measurements and helps constrain the system architecture. We exemplify the advantages of applying this photo-dynamical model to a multi-planetary system found in K2 data very close to 3:2 mean motion resonance, K2-19. In this case the period of the larger TTV variations (libration period) is much longer (>1.5 years) than the duration of the K2 observations (80 days). However, our method allows to detect the short period TTVs produced by the orbital conjunctions between the planets that in turn permits to uniquely characterise the system. Therefore, our method can be used to constrain the masses of near-resonant systems even when the full libration curve is not observed.
We describe the preliminary design of a magnetograph and visible-light imager instrument to study the solar dynamo processes through observations of the solar surface magnetic field distribution. The instrument will provide measurements of the vector magnetic field and of the line-of-sight velocity in the solar photosphere. As the magnetic field anchored at the solar surface produces most of the structures and energetic events in the upper solar atmosphere and significantly influences the heliosphere, the development of this instrument plays an important role in reaching the scientific goals of The Atmospheric and Space Science Coordination (CEA) at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). In particular, the CEA's space weather program will benefit most from the development of this technology. We expect that this project will be the starting point to establish a strong research program on Solar Physics in Brazil. Our main aim is acquiring progressively the know-how to build state-of-the-art solar vector magnetograph and visible-light imagers for space-based platforms to contribute to the efforts of the solar-terrestrial physics community to address the main unanswered questions on how our nearby Star works.