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OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: This study sought to determine the accessibility, utilization, and preference for mobile phone use among a marginalized population of teens enrolled in an adolescent substance abuse treatment program and their parents. Specific study aims were to: (1) characterize mobile phone use, (2) assess the accessibility and reliability of mobile phone usage, (3) determine specific barriers to mobile phone use, and (4) examine parent and teen perceptions of the utility of integrating communication technology in substance use treatment. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In total, 103 (78.6% female; 75.7% Hispanic) parents of teens participating in an outpatient substance abuse treatment program with an average age of 42.60 (SD=9.28) participated in our study. Upon enrollment in a substance abuse treatment program between October 2014 and July 2016, parents completed a technology use survey as part of program development and a chart review of clinic outbound calls to parent mobile phones was completed to evaluate reliability of parent mobile phone access throughout treatment. Survey collection among teens is ongoing. Study population information for teens will be presented at the conference. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The vast majority of parents owned a cell phone and used it as their primary phone (97.1%); 83% of parents owned smart phones in particular, with the majority being Android phones (68.7%). Parents were more likely to have pay-as-you-go (41.4%) and yearly (32.3%) contracts, and only 15% of the sample endorsed changing their phone number more than once in the past year (64%=never; 21%=once). Parents reported using several of the phone features: text (97%), email (76%), pictures (93%), and accessing the internet (92%); 92% reported they did not have a texting limit; and the most popular use of the mobile phone was to send and receive text messages (58.6%), followed by accessing the internet (19.2%). During the course of a 10-week treatment program, the clinic made 2776 confirmation phone calls to parents who completed surveys. Report of accessibility matched the clinic’s ability to reach parents. Of the 2776 calls, 97.2% were made to the original number provided, which was in service. Only 2.7% were determined to be disconnected, with the median number of days for disconnected service being 2 days with no voice and no texting capabilities (range=14) and 2 days with no voice, but with texting capabilities (range=28). In terms of parent perceptions of the utility of integrating communication technology in substance use treatment, 91% of parents reported they would be receptive to receiving text messages with parenting tips as aftercare support. Preferred content areas included: strategies for monitoring teen substance use (56%), strategies for using consequences (62%), suggestions for encouraging positive activities (62%), and ways to improve parent-child communication (63%). Accessibility, utilization, and preference for mobile phone use in a treatment program among teen respondents will be presented at the conference. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: This study characterized both subjective and objective mobile phone accessibility and usability among teens participating in an adolescent substance abuse treatment program and their parents. This study also provides information on teen and parent perceptions of using mobile phones during the aftercare period and ratings of acceptable messages following treatment. This data will help researchers design mobile-based interventions both during and after treatment, which is the future direction of our research group.
The present study evaluated the behaviour of the AusBeef model for beef production as part of a 2 × 2 study simulating performance on forage-based and concentrate-based diets from Oceania and North America for four methane (CH4)-relevant outputs of interest. Three sensitivity analysis methods, one local and two global, were conducted. Different patterns of sensitivity were observed between forage-based and concentrate-based diets, but patterns were consistent within diet types. For the local analysis, 36, 196, 47 and 8 out of 305 model parameters had normalized sensitivities of 0, >0, >0·01 and >0·1 across all diets and outputs, respectively. No parameters had a normalized local sensitivity >1 across all diets and outputs. However, daily CH4 production had the greatest number of parameters with normalized local sensitivities >1 for each individual diet. Parameters that were highly sensitive for global and local analyses across the range of diets and outputs examined included terms involved in microbial growth, volatile fatty acid (VFA) yields, maximum absorption rates and their inhibition due to pH effects and particle exit rates. Global sensitivity analysis I showed the high sensitivity of forage-based diets to lipid entering the rumen, which may be a result of the use of a feedlot-optimized model to represent high-forage diets and warrants further investigation. Global sensitivity analysis II showed that when all parameter values were simultaneously varied within ±10% of initial value, >96% of output values were within ±20% of the baseline, which decreased to >50% when parameter value boundaries were expanded to ±25% of their original values, giving a range for robustness of model outputs with regards to potential different ‘true’ parameter values. There were output-specific differences in sensitivity, where outputs that had greater maximum local sensitivities displayed greater degrees of non-linear interaction in global sensitivity analysis I and less variance in output values for global sensitivity analysis II. For outputs with less interaction, such as the acetate : propionate ratio and microbial protein production, the single most sensitive term in global sensitivity analysis I contributed more to the overall total-order sensitivity than for outputs with more interaction, with an average of 49, 33, 15 and 14% of total-order sensitivity for microbial protein production, acetate : propionate ratio, CH4 production and energy from absorbed VFAs, respectively. Future studies should include data collection for highly sensitive parameters reported in the present study to improve overall model accuracy.
As demand for animal products, such as meat and milk, increases, and concern over environmental impact grows, mechanistic models can be useful tools to better represent and understand ruminant systems and evaluate mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without compromising productivity. The objectives of the present study were to describe the representation of processes for growth and enteric methane (CH4) production in AusBeef, a whole-animal, dynamic, mechanistic model for beef production; evaluate AusBeef for its ability to predict daily methane production (DMP, g/day), gross energy intake (GEI, MJ/day) and methane yield (MJ CH4/MJ GEI) using an independent data set; and to compare AusBeef estimates to those from the empirical equations featured in the current National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM, 2016) beef cattle requirements for growth and the Ruminant Nutrition System (RNS), a dynamic, mechanistic model of Tedeschi & Fox, 2016. AusBeef incorporates a unique fermentation stoichiometry that represents four microbial groups: protozoa, amylolytic bacteria, cellulolytic bacteria and lactate-utilizing bacteria. AusBeef also accounts for the effects of ruminal pH on microbial degradation of feed particles. Methane emissions are calculated from net ruminal hydrogen balance, which is defined as the difference between inputs from fermentation and outputs due to microbial use and biohydrogenation. AusBeef performed similarly to the NASEM empirical model in terms of prediction accuracy and error decomposition, and with less root mean square predicted error (RMSPE) than the RNS mechanistic model when expressed as a percentage of the observed mean (RMSPE, %), and the majority of error was non-systematic. For DMP, RMSPE for AusBeef, NASEM and RNS were 24·0, 19·8 and 50·0 g/day for the full data set (n = 35); 25·6, 18·2 and 56·2 g/day for forage diets (n = 19); and 21·8, 21·5 and 41·5 g/day for mixed diets (n = 16), respectively. Concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) were highest for GEI, with all models having CCC > 0·66, and higher CCC for forage diets than mixed, while CCC were lowest for MY, particularly forage diets. Systematic error increased for all models on forage diets, largely due to an increase in error due to mean bias, and while all models performed well for mixed diets, further refinements are required to improve the prediction of CH4 on forage diets.
There is increasing interest among developmental psychopathologists in broad transdiagnostic factors that give rise to a wide array of clinical presentations (multifinality), but little is known about how these processes lead to particular psychopathological manifestations over the course of development. We examined whether individual differences in the error-related negativity (ΔERN), a neural indicator of error monitoring, predicts whether early persistent irritability, a prototypical transdiagnostic construct, is associated with later internalizing versus externalizing outcomes. When children were 3 years old, mothers were interviewed about children's persistent irritability and completed questionnaires about their children's psychopathology. Three years later, EEG was recorded while children performed a go/no-go task to measure the ΔERN. When children were approximately 9 years old, mothers again completed questionnaires about their children's psychopathology. The results indicated that among children who were persistently irritable at age 3, an enhanced or more negative ΔERN at age 6 predicted the development of internalizing symptoms at age 9, whereas a blunted or smaller ΔERN at age 6 predicted the development of externalizing symptoms. Our results suggest that variation in error monitoring predicts, and may even shape, the expression of persistent irritability and differentiates developmental trajectories from preschool persistent irritability to internalizing versus externalizing outcomes in middle to late childhood.
The effect that cosmic rays and the Alfvén waves generated by them have on the structure of the plasma distribution perpendicular to the galactic disc in a hydrostatic model is examined. It is shown that the plasma distribution exhibits two length scales, essentially because the cosmic rays and Alfvén waves lift the gas up and stretch it out beyond the galactic plane. The predicted gas density far from the galactic plane indicates that models involving hydrostatic equilibrium should be replaced by those allowing for a galactic wind.