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Registry-based trials have emerged as a potentially cost-saving study methodology. Early estimates of cost savings, however, conflated the benefits associated with registry utilisation and those associated with other aspects of pragmatic trial designs, which might not all be as broadly applicable. In this study, we sought to build a practical tool that investigators could use across disciplines to estimate the ranges of potential cost differences associated with implementing registry-based trials versus standard clinical trials.
We built simulation Markov models to compare unique costs associated with data acquisition, cleaning, and linkage under a registry-based trial design versus a standard clinical trial. We conducted one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, varying study characteristics over broad ranges, to determine thresholds at which investigators might optimally select each trial design.
Registry-based trials were more cost effective than standard clinical trials 98.6% of the time. Data-related cost savings ranged from $4300 to $600,000 with variation in study characteristics. Cost differences were most reactive to the number of patients in a study, the number of data elements per patient available in a registry, and the speed with which research coordinators could manually abstract data. Registry incorporation resulted in cost savings when as few as 3768 independent data elements were available and when manual data abstraction took as little as 3.4 seconds per data field.
Registries offer important resources for investigators. When available, their broad incorporation may help the scientific community reduce the costs of clinical investigation. We offer here a practical tool for investigators to assess potential costs savings.
Early growth pattern is increasingly recognized as a determinant of later obesity. This study aimed to identify the association between weight gain in early life and anthropometry, adiposity, leptin, and fasting insulin levels in adolescence. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 366 school children aged 11–13 years. Weight, height, and waist circumference (WC) were measured. Fat mass (FM) was assessed using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Blood was drawn after a 12-h fast for insulin and leptin assay. Birth weight and weight at 6 months and at 18 months were extracted from Child Health Development Records. An increase in weight SD score (SDS) by ≥0.67 was defined as accelerated weight gain. Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to predict anthropometry, adiposity, and metabolic outcomes using sex, pubertal status, accelerated weight gain as fixed factors; age, birth weight, and family income as fixed covariates, and school as a random factor. Children with accelerated weight gain between birth and 18 months had significantly higher body mass index (BMI) SDS, WC SDS, height SDS, %FM, fat mass index (FMI), fat free mass index (FFMI), and serum leptin levels in adolescence. Accelerated weight gain between 6 and 18 months was associated with higher BMI SDS, WC SDS, %FM, and FMI, but not with height SDS or FFMI. Accelerated weight gain at 0–6 months, in children with low birth weight, was associated with higher height SDS, BMI SDS, WC SDS, %FM, and FMI; in children with normal birth weight, it was associated with BMI SDS, WC SDS, height SDS, and FFMI, but not with %FM or FMI. Effects of accelerated weight gain in early life on anthropometry and adiposity in adolescence varied in different growth windows. Accelerated weight gain during 6–18 months was associated with higher FM rather than linear growth. Effects of accelerated weight gain between 0 and 6 months varied with birth weight.
While echocardiographic parameters are used to quantify ventricular function in infants with single ventricle physiology, there are few data comparing these to invasive measurements. This study correlates echocardiographic measures of diastolic function with ventricular end-diastolic pressure in infants with single ventricle physiology prior to superior cavopulmonary anastomosis.
Data from 173 patients enrolled in the Pediatric Heart Network Infant Single Ventricle enalapril trial were analysed. Those with mixed ventricular types (n = 17) and one outlier (end-diastolic pressure = 32 mmHg) were excluded from the analysis, leaving a total sample size of 155 patients. Echocardiographic measurements were correlated to end-diastolic pressure using Spearman’s test.
Median age at echocardiogram was 4.6 (range 2.5–7.4) months. Median ventricular end-diastolic pressure was 7 (range 3–19) mmHg. Median time difference between the echocardiogram and catheterisation was 0 days (range −35 to 59 days). Examining the entire cohort of 155 patients, no echocardiographic diastolic function variable correlated with ventricular end-diastolic pressure. When the analysis was limited to the 86 patients who had similar sedation for both studies, the systolic:diastolic duration ratio had a significant but weak negative correlation with end-diastolic pressure (r = −0.3, p = 0.004). The remaining echocardiographic variables did not correlate with ventricular end-diastolic pressure.
In this cohort of infants with single ventricle physiology prior to superior cavopulmonary anastomosis, most conventional echocardiographic measures of diastolic function did not correlate with ventricular end-diastolic pressure at cardiac catheterisation. These limitations should be factored into the interpretation of quantitative echo data in this patient population.
Soldier operational performance is determined by their fitness, nutritional status, quality of rest/recovery, and remaining injury/illness free. Understanding large fluctuations in nutritional status during operations is critical to safeguarding health and well-being. There are limited data world-wide describing the effect of extreme climate change on nutrient profiles. This study investigated the effect of hot-dry deployments on vitamin D status (assessed from 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration) of young, male, military volunteers. Two data sets are presented (pilot study, n 37; main study, n 98), examining serum 25(OH)D concentrations before and during 6-month summer operational deployments to Afghanistan (March to October/November). Body mass, percentage of body fat, dietary intake and serum 25(OH)D concentrations were measured. In addition, parathyroid hormone (PTH), adjusted Ca and albumin concentrations were measured in the main study to better understand 25(OH)D fluctuations. Body mass and fat mass (FM) losses were greater for early (pre- to mid-) deployment compared with late (mid- to post-) deployment (P<0·05). Dietary intake was well-maintained despite high rates of energy expenditure. A pronounced increase in 25(OH)D was observed between pre- (March) and mid-deployment (June) (pilot study: 51 (sd 20) v. 212 (sd 85) nmol/l, P<0·05; main study: 55 (sd 22) v. 167 (sd 71) nmol/l, P<0·05) and remained elevated post-deployment (October/November). In contrast, PTH was highest pre-deployment, decreasing thereafter (main study: 4·45 (sd 2·20) v. 3·79 (sd 1·50) pmol/l, P<0·05). The typical seasonal cycling of vitamin D appeared exaggerated in this active male population undertaking an arduous summer deployment. Further research is warranted, where such large seasonal vitamin D fluctuations may be detrimental to bone health in the longer-term.
The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the most commonly cited factors that may have influenced infants’ gut microbiota profiles at one year of age: mode of delivery, breastfeeding duration and antibiotic exposure. Barcoded V3/V4 amplicons of bacterial 16S-rRNA gene were prepared from the stool samples of 52 healthy 1-year-old Australian children and sequenced using the Illumina MiSeq platform. Following the quality checks, the data were processed using the Quantitative Insights Into Microbial Ecology pipeline and analysed using the Calypso package for microbiome data analysis. The stool microbiota profiles of children still breastfed were significantly different from that of children weaned earlier (P<0.05), independent of the age of solid food introduction. Among children still breastfed, Veillonella spp. abundance was higher. Children no longer breastfed possessed a more ‘mature’ microbiota, with notable increases of Firmicutes. The microbiota profiles of the children could not be differentiated by delivery mode or antibiotic exposure. Further analysis based on children’s feeding patterns found children who were breastfed alongside solid food had significantly different microbiota profiles compared to that of children who were receiving both breastmilk and formula milk alongside solid food. This study provided evidence that breastfeeding continues to influence gut microbial community even at late infancy when these children are also consuming table foods. At this age, any impacts from mode of delivery or antibiotic exposure did not appear to be discernible imprints on the microbial community profiles of these healthy children.
We consider the effect of high rotation rates on two liquid layers that initially form concentric cylinders, centred on the axis of rotation. The configuration may be thought of as a fluid–fluid centrifuge. There are two types of perturbation to the interface that may be considered, an azimuthal perturbation around the circumference of the interface and a varicose perturbation in the axial direction along the length of the interface. It is the first of these types of perturbation that we consider here, and so the flow may be considered essentially two-dimensional, taking place in a circular domain. A linear stability analysis is carried out on a perturbation to the hydrostatic background state and a fourth-order Orr–Sommerfeld-like equation that governs the system is derived. We consider the dynamics of systems of stable and unstable configurations, inviscid and viscous fluids, immiscible fluid layers with surface tension and miscible fluid layers that may have some initial diffusion of density. In the most simple case of two layers of inviscid fluid separated by a sharp interface with no surface tension acting, we show that the effects of the curvature of the interface and the confinement of the system may be characterised by a modified Atwood number. The classical Atwood number is recovered in the limit of high azimuthal wavenumber, or the outer fluid layer being unconfined. Theoretical predictions are compared with numerical experiments and the agreement is shown to be good. We do not restrict our analysis to equal volume fluid layers and so our results also have applications in coating and lubrication problems in rapidly rotating systems and machinery.
EX Hya was one of the earliest detected eclipsing cataclysmic variables. The 98 min orbital period was first documented as a result of the spectroscopy of Kraft and Krzeminski (1962) and the photometry of Mumford (1964, 1967). However, new properties of this system continue to be discovered and these have required a more complex model than was previously envisaged.
The appearance of SN 1987A led to the implementation of a fast sampling option in the data collection system of the photometer on the University of Tasmania’s optical telescope. This option permits acquisition of continuous data trains of over one hour’s duration at sample rates of 5 kHz. Monitoring of SN 1987 A at regular intervals has permitted upper limits to be assigned to any pulsed fraction of the optical flux. Successful test observations of the Crab pulsar have been obtained, as well as observations of the geostationary Aussat satellites during their bi-annual specular-reflection episodes. For the latter, very accurate spin rates (∼1 Hz) are determinable in short data runs because of the higher frequency components (∼100 Hz) in their light curves. These components are produced by the rows of solar cells on the outer surfaces of the satellites, and fast-Fourier transform analyses essentially permit the numbers of rows of cells to be counted precisely.
There is now expert consensus that directly observing the work of trainee therapists vs. relying upon self-report of sessions, is critical to providing the accurate feedback required to attain a range of competencies. In spite of this expert consensus however, and the broadly positive attitudes towards video review among supervisees, video feedback methods remain under-utilized in clinical supervision. This paper outlines some of the weaknesses that affect feedback based solely on self-report methods, before introducing some of the specific benefits that video feedback methods can offer the training and supervision context. It is argued that video feedback methods fit seamlessly into CBT supervision providing direct, accessible, effective, efficient and accurate observation of the learning situation, and optimizing the chances for accurate self-reflections and planning further improvements in performance. To demonstrate the utility of video feedback techniques to CBT supervision, two specific video feedback techniques are introduced and described: the Give-me-5 technique and the I-spy technique. Case examples of CBT supervision using the two techniques are provided and explored, and guidance as to the supervision contexts in which each of the two techniques are suitable, individually, and in tandem, are outlined. Finally, best practice guidelines for the use of video feedback techniques in supervision are outlined.
The first observations by a worldwide network of advanced interferometric gravitational wave detectors offer a unique opportunity for the astronomical community. At design sensitivity, these facilities will be able to detect coalescing binary neutron stars to distances approaching 400 Mpc, and neutron star–black hole systems to 1 Gpc. Both of these sources are associated with gamma-ray bursts which are known to emit across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Gravitational wave detections provide the opportunity for ‘multi-messenger’ observations, combining gravitational wave with electromagnetic, cosmic ray, or neutrino observations. This review provides an overview of how Australian astronomical facilities and collaborations with the gravitational wave community can contribute to this new era of discovery, via contemporaneous follow-up observations from the radio to the optical and high energy. We discuss some of the frontier discoveries that will be made possible when this new window to the Universe is opened.
To determine if total lifetime physical activity (PA) is associated with better cognitive functioning with aging and if cerebrovascular function mediates this association. A sample of 226 (52.2% female) community dwelling middle-aged and older adults (66.5±6.4 years) in the Brain in Motion Study, completed the Lifetime Total Physical Activity Questionnaire and underwent neuropsychological and cerebrovascular blood flow testing. Multiple robust linear regressions were used to model the associations between lifetime PA and global cognition after adjusting for age, sex, North American Adult Reading Test results (i.e., an estimate of premorbid intellectual ability), maximal aerobic capacity, body mass index and interactions between age, sex, and lifetime PA. Mediation analysis assessed the effect of cerebrovascular measures on the association between lifetime PA and global cognition. Post hoc analyses assessed past year PA and current fitness levels relation to global cognition and cerebrovascular measures. Better global cognitive performance was associated with higher lifetime PA (p=.045), recreational PA (p=.021), and vigorous intensity PA (p=.004), PA between the ages of 0 and 20 years (p=.036), and between the ages of 21 and 35 years (p<.0001). Cerebrovascular measures did not mediate the association between PA and global cognition scores (p>.5), but partially mediated the relation between current fitness and global cognition. This study revealed significant associations between higher levels of PA (i.e., total lifetime, recreational, vigorous PA, and past year) and better cognitive function in later life. Current fitness levels relation to cognitive function may be partially mediated through current cerebrovascular function. (JINS, 2015, 21, 816–830)
Considerable research has documented that exposure to traumatic events has negative effects on physical and mental health. Much less research has examined the predictors of traumatic event exposure. Increased understanding of risk factors for exposure to traumatic events could be of considerable value in targeting preventive interventions and anticipating service needs.
General population surveys in 24 countries with a combined sample of 68 894 adult respondents across six continents assessed exposure to 29 traumatic event types. Differences in prevalence were examined with cross-tabulations. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted to determine whether traumatic event types clustered into interpretable factors. Survival analysis was carried out to examine associations of sociodemographic characteristics and prior traumatic events with subsequent exposure.
Over 70% of respondents reported a traumatic event; 30.5% were exposed to four or more. Five types – witnessing death or serious injury, the unexpected death of a loved one, being mugged, being in a life-threatening automobile accident, and experiencing a life-threatening illness or injury – accounted for over half of all exposures. Exposure varied by country, sociodemographics and history of prior traumatic events. Being married was the most consistent protective factor. Exposure to interpersonal violence had the strongest associations with subsequent traumatic events.
Given the near ubiquity of exposure, limited resources may best be dedicated to those that are more likely to be further exposed such as victims of interpersonal violence. Identifying mechanisms that account for the associations of prior interpersonal violence with subsequent trauma is critical to develop interventions to prevent revictimization.
Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers.
A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004–2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011–2013 sample.
Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80–0.82 in 2004–2009 and 0.77 in the 2011–2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2–33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004–2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011–2013 validation sample.
Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.
In the United States alone, ∼14,000 children are hospitalised annually with acute heart failure. The science and art of caring for these patients continues to evolve. The International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children’s Heart Institute was held on February 4 and 5, 2015. The 2015 International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children’s Heart Institute was funded through the Andrews/Daicoff Cardiovascular Program Endowment, a philanthropic collaboration between All Children’s Hospital and the Morsani College of Medicine at the University of South Florida (USF). Sponsored by All Children’s Hospital Andrews/Daicoff Cardiovascular Program, the International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit assembled leaders in clinical and scientific disciplines related to paediatric heart failure and created a multi-disciplinary “think-tank”. The purpose of this manuscript is to summarise the lessons from the 2015 International Pediatric Heart Failure Summit of Johns Hopkins All Children’s Heart Institute, to describe the “state of the art” of the treatment of paediatric cardiac failure, and to discuss future directions for research in the domain of paediatric cardiac failure.
Background: It has been hypothesized that [18F]-sodium fluoride (NaF) uptake imaged with positron emission tomography (PET) binds to hydroxyapatite molecules expressed in regions with active calcification. Therefore, we aimed to validate NaF as a marker of hydroxyapatite expression in high-risk carotid plaque. Methods: Eleven patients (69 ± 5 years, 3 female) scheduled for carotid endarterectomy were prospectively recruited for NaF PET/CT. One patient received a second contralateral endarterectomy; two patients were excluded (intolerance to contrast media and PET/CT misalignment). The bifurcation of the common carotid was used as the reference point; NaF uptake (tissue to blood ratio - TBR) was measured at every PET slice extending 2 cm above and below the bifurcation. Excised plaque was immunostained with Goldner’s Trichrome and whole-slide digitized images were used to quantify hydroxyapatite expression. Pathology was co-registered with PET. Results: NaF uptake was related to the extent of hydroxyapatite expression (r=0.45, p<0.001). Upon classifying bilateral plaque for symptomatology, symptomatic plaque was associated with cerebrovascular events (3.75±1.1 TBR, n=9) and had greater NaF uptake than clinically silent asymptomatic plaque (2.79±0.6 TBR, n=11) (p=0.04). Conclusion: NaF uptake is related to hydroxyapatite expression and is increased in plaque associated with cerebrovascular events. NaF may serve as a novel biomarker of active calcification and plaque vulnerability.
The incidence of recreational water-associated outbreaks in the United States has significantly increased, driven, at least in part, by outbreaks both caused by Cryptosporidium and associated with treated recreational water venues. Because of the parasite's extreme chlorine tolerance, transmission can occur even in well-maintained treated recreational water venues (e.g. pools) and a focal cryptosporidiosis outbreak can evolve into a community-wide outbreak associated with multiple recreational water venues and settings (e.g. childcare facilities). In August 2004 in Auglaize County, Ohio, multiple cryptosporidiosis cases were identified and anecdotally linked to pool A. Within 5 days of the first case being reported, pool A was hyperchlorinated to achieve 99·9% Cryptosporidium inactivition. A case-control study was launched to epidemiologically ascertain the outbreak source 11 days later. A total of 150 confirmed and probable cases were identified; the temporal distribution of illness onset was peaked, indicating a point-source exposure. Cryptosporidiosis was significantly associated with swimming in pool A (matched odds ratio 121·7, 95% confidence interval 27·4–∞) but not with another venue or setting. The findings of this investigation suggest that proactive implementation of control measures, when increased Cryptosporidium transmission is detected but before an outbreak source is epidemiologically ascertained, might prevent a focal cryptosporidiosis outbreak from evolving into a community-wide outbreak.
The correspondences between the names in the Scylding genealogy at the beginning of Beowulf and three names in the upper reaches of the genealogy of Æthelwulf in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, Beaw, Sceldwa and Sceaf, frequently appear in arguments for a late dating of Beowulf. But these arguments overlook many aspects of Æthelwulf's genealogy that disrupt their case for a late dating. As H. Munro Chadwick pointed out over a century ago, the forms Sceldwa and Beaw found in the Chronicle for Scyld and Beow are not West Saxon spellings, and the -wa suffix of Sceldwa and Tætwa suggests that these forms may be archaic. Thus spelling alone indicates that these names were probably copied from an older, non-West Saxon text. Furthermore, the very presence of these names in the royal pedigree is puzzling. On one level the presence of Scyld is easy to explain: Scyld and the Scyldings were famous in heroic legend, and his inclusion in Æthelwulf's pedigree provides reflected glory for the West Saxon dynasty and implies genealogical, political and cultural connections between the West Saxons and the Danes that could be useful for Alfred and his heirs to foster. But on another level his inclusion is rather surprising: according to genealogical conventions, the presence of Scyld implies that the West Saxon royal family is a cadet branch of the Scylding dynasty, and is thus potentially subordinate to Scandinavian rulers in England claiming direct descent from Scyld.