The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Recent developments in the application life history theory to human development indicate two fundamental dimension of the early environment – harshness and unpredictability – are key regulators life history strategies. Few studies have examined the manner with which these dimensions influence development, though age at menarche (AAM) and age at first sexual intercourse have been proposed as possible mechanisms among women. Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 3,645) were used to examine direct and indirect effects of harshness (financial difficulties) and unpredictability (paternal transitions) on lifetime and past year sexual partners during adolescence and young adulthood. Genetic confounding was addressed using an AAM polygenic score (PGS) and potential gene-by-environment interactions were also evaluated using the PGS. Path model results showed only harshness was directly related to AAM. Harshness, unpredictability, and AAM were indirectly related to lifetime and past year sexual partner number via age at first sexual intercourse. The PGS did not account for any of the associations and no significant interactions were detected. Implications of these results for developmental models derived from life history theory are discussed as well as the role of PGSs in gene–environment interplay research.

The early identification and prediction of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) play an important role in the disease prevention and control. However, suitable models are different in regions due to the differences in geography, social economy factors. We collected data associated with daily reported HFMD cases and weather factors of Zibo city in 2010~2019 and used the generalised additive model (GAM) to evaluate the effects of weather factors on HFMD cases. Then, GAM, support vectors regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) models are used to compare predictive results. The annual average incidence was 129.72/100 000 from 2010 to 2019. Its distribution showed a unimodal trend, with incidence increasing from March, peaking from May to September. Our study revealed the nonlinear relationship between temperature, rainfall and relative humidity and HFMD cases and based on the predictive result, the performances of three models constructed ranked in descending order are: SVR > GAM> RFR, and SVR has the smallest prediction errors. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the prediction of HFMD for special high-risk regions and can help public health agencies implement prevention and control measures in advance.

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed serious challenges. It is vitally important to further clarify the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak for future study and prevention and control measures. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial−temporal analysis were performed based on COVID-19 cases from 21 January 2020 to 1 March 2020 in Shandong Province, and close contacts were traced to construct transmission chains. A total of 758 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported in Shandong. The sex ratio was 1.27: 1 (M: F) and the median age was 42 (interquartile range: 32–55). The high-risk clusters were identified in the central, eastern and southern regions of Shandong from 25 January 2020 to 10 February 2020. We rebuilt 54 transmission chains involving 209 cases, of which 52.2% were family clusters, and three widespread infection chains were elaborated, occurring in Jining, Zaozhuang and Liaocheng, respectively. The geographical and temporal disparity may alert public health agencies to implement specific measures in regions with different risk, and should attach importance on how to avoid household and community transmission.

Porphyromonas gingivalis has been linked to the development and progression of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and is considered to be a high-risk factor for ESCC. Currently, the commonly used methods for P. gingivalis detection are culture or DNA extraction-based, which are either time and labour intensive especially for high-throughput applications. We aimed to establish and evaluate a rapid and sensitive direct quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) protocol for the detection of P. gingivalis without DNA extraction which is suitable for large-scale epidemiological studies. Paired gingival swab samples from 192 subjects undergoing general medical examinations were analysed using two direct and one extraction-based qPCR assays for P. gingivalis. Tris-EDTA buffer-based direct qPCR (TE-direct qPCR), lysis-based direct qPCR (lysis-direct qPCR) and DNA extraction-based qPCR (kit-qPCR) were used, respectively, in 192, 132 and 60 of these samples for quantification of P. gingivalis. The sensitivity and specificity of TE-direct qPCR was 95.24% and 100% compared with lysis-direct qPCR, which was 100% and 97.30% when compared with kit-qPCR; TE-direct qPCR had an almost perfect agreement with lysis-direct qPCR (κ = 0.954) and kit-qPCR (κ = 0.965). Moreover, the assay time used for TE-direct qPCR was 1.5 h. In conclusion, the TE-direct qPCR assay is a simple and efficient method for the quantification of oral P. gingivalis and showed high sensitivity and specificity compared with routine qPCR.

The sense of bitter taste is critical for chickens to acquire and select feeds. It is important to understand the roles and mechanisms of bitter taste transduction in chickens. Denatonium is extensively used as a bitter taste receptor agonist to activate bitter taste receptors in recent studies. The objective of this study was to investigate the physiological effects and the potential molecular mechanisms of dietary exposure to a strong bitter taste receptor agonist on the jejunal epithelial cells of yellow-feathered chickens. A total of 240 yellow-feathered chickens were divided into four treatments receiving a normal diet (Control), a low-dose denatonium treatment (Control + 5 mg/kg denatonium), a middle-dose denatonium treatment (Control + 20 mg/kg denatonium) and a high-dose denatonium treatment (Control + 100 mg/kg denatonium) for 56 days, respectively. The results showed that dietary denatonium reduced (P < 0.05) the growth performance of chickens. High-dose denatonium damaged the morphology of the jejunal epithelium and decreased (P < 0.05) the activities of Ca2+-ATPase, sucrase and maltase after 56 days of exposure. Meanwhile, high-dose denatonium increased (P < 0.05) mRNA expressions of bitter taste receptors, which resulted in enhanced apoptosis in jejunal epithelial cells after 56 days of exposure. Furthermore, middle-dose and high-dose denatonium exhibited increased (P < 0.05) mRNA level of claudin 2 and decreased (P < 0.05) mRNA level of occludin after 28 days of exposure. Only high-dose denatonium decreased (P < 0.05) mRNA level of occludin after 56 days of exposure. In conclusion, denatonium manifested deleterious effects on the jejunum of chickens in a dose–effect manner via damaging the morphology of the jejunal epithelium, and inducing apoptosis associated with bitter taste receptors. Our data suggest that bitter-tasting feed additives may have side effects on the growth and development of intestines in chickens.

Dietary indices are widely used in diet quality measurement, and the index-based dietary patterns are related to gastric cancer risk. To evaluate the relationship between different kinds of index-based dietary patterns and gastric cancer risk, we systematically searched four English-language databases and four Chinese-language databases. The quality of studies was assessed by the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale. Meta-analyses were performed to estimate the association between gastric cancer incidence and different types of index-based dietary patterns. The OR and hazard ratios (HR) of gastric cancer incidence were calculated by regression models in case–control studies and prospective cohort studies, respectively. The studies were pooled in the random effects model to calculate the summarised risk estimate of the highest quantile interval of dietary indices, taking the lowest as the referent. The dietary indices included different versions of Mediterranean diet score (MDS) and dietary inflammatory index (DII), healthy eating index, Chinese Food Pagoda score and food index score. The meta-analysis was carried out for studies on MDS and DII. The combined OR of gastric cancer for the highest MDS v. the referent was 0·42 (95 % CI 0·2, 0·86), and the combined HR was 0·89 (95 % CI 0·68, 1·17). The combined OR for DII was 2·11 (95 % CI 1·41, 3·15). Higher Mediterranean dietary pattern consumption might reduce gastric cancer risk, while higher inflammatory diet pattern consumption might increase gastric cancer risk.

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of supplementing different amounts of daidzein in a diet on the growth performance, blood biochemical parameters and meat quality of finishing beef cattle. Thirty finishing Xianan steers were distributed in three groups equilibrated by weight and fed three different dietary treatments (concentrate ratio = 80%): (1) control; (2) 500 mg/kg daidzein and (3) 1000 mg/kg daidzein, respectively. Steers were slaughtered after an 80-day feeding trial. Results showed that daidzein supplementation had no effect on the final body weight, average daily gain and feed conversion rate of steers. Steers fed with 1000 mg/kg daidzein had greater dry matter intake than those fed with control diets. Compared with the control group, the 1000 mg/kg daidzein group had a higher fat thickness, lower shear force and lightness. The pH, drip loss, cooking loss, redness (a*), yellowness (b*), moisture, ash, crude protein and intramuscular fat of the Longissimus dorsi muscle were unaffected by daidzein supplementation. Compared with the control group, the 1000 mg/kg daidzein group significantly increased the serum concentrations of insulin, free fatty acid and Glutamic-pyruvic transaminase. The 500 mg/kg daidzein group significantly increased the serum concentration of tetraiodothyronine compared with the control group. Supplemental daidzein did not affect the blood antioxidant ability and blood immune parameters in serum. In conclusion, daidzein supplementation above 500 mg/day modifies feed intake and metabolic and hormonal profile, with positive and negative effects on meat quality.

Finite-amplitude manifestations of stratified shear flow instabilities and their spatio-temporal coherent structures are believed to play an important role in turbulent geophysical flows. Such shear flows commonly have layers separated by sharp density interfaces, and are therefore susceptible to the so-called Holmboe instability, and its finite-amplitude manifestation, the Holmboe wave. In this paper, we describe and elucidate the origin of an apparently previously unreported long-lived coherent structure in a sustained stratified shear flow generated in the laboratory by exchange flow through an inclined square duct connecting two reservoirs filled with fluids of different densities. Using a novel measurement technique allowing for time-resolved, near-instantaneous measurements of the three-component velocity and density fields simultaneously over a three-dimensional volume, we describe the three-dimensional geometry and spatio-temporal dynamics of this structure. We identify it as a finite-amplitude, nonlinear, asymmetric confined Holmboe wave (CHW), and highlight the importance of its spanwise (lateral) confinement by the duct boundaries. We pay particular attention to the spanwise vorticity, which exhibits a travelling, near-periodic structure of sheared, distorted, prolate spheroids with a wide ‘body’ and a narrower ‘head’. Using temporal linear stability analysis on the two-dimensional streamwise-averaged experimental flow, we solve for three-dimensional perturbations having two-dimensional, cross-sectionally confined eigenfunctions and a streamwise normal mode. We show that the dispersion relation and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the fastest-growing confined Holmboe instability are in good agreement with those of the observed confined Holmboe wave. We also compare those results with a classical linear analysis of two-dimensional perturbations (i.e. with no spanwise dependence) on a one-dimensional base flow. We conclude that the lateral confinement is an important ingredient of the confined Holmboe instability, which gives rise to the CHW, with implications for many inherently confined geophysical flows such as in valleys, estuaries, straits or deep ocean trenches. Our results suggest that the CHW is an example of an experimentally observed, inherently nonlinear, robust, long-lived coherent structure which has developed from a linear instability. We conjecture that the CHW is a promising candidate for a class of exact coherent states underpinning the dynamics of more disordered, yet continually forced stratified shear flows.

A critical question in invasion biology involves the relative importance of propagule rain and community invasibility. For plant invasions, invasibility is often related to disturbance, but few studies of forest invaders have simultaneously investigated both canopy and ground-level disturbance. We investigated the relative importance of seed rain, canopy disturbance, and soil disturbance in a mature forest in Maryland on the recruitment of four invasive species: wine raspberry (Rubus phoenicolasius Maxim.), Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii DC), multiflora rose (Rosa multiflora Thunb.), and Japanese stiltgrass [Microstegium vimineum (Trin.) A. Camus]. Using complete censuses of a 9-ha plot at two points in time (2011–12 and 2014), we mapped new recruits, and related their locations to canopy and soil disturbance, as well as to a seed rain index based on locations of reproducing plants and seed-dispersal kernels.

We found that propagule rain, as measured by the seed rain index, was a significant predictor of recruitment for B. thunbergii, R. phoenicolasius, and M. vimineum. For R. multiflora, seed sources were not located, precluding assessment of propagule rain, but recruitment was linked to canopy disturbance, as was recruitment of M. vimineum. However, because reproduction of R. phoenicolasius and, in some years, of B. thunbergii is higher in treefall gaps, these gaps experience higher propagule rain, with the result that recruitment is indirectly associated with these gaps. Ground-layer disturbance was an important predictor of recruitment only for B. thunbergii. Our findings reveal that the importance of propagule rain is the most consistent driver of recruitment, but canopy or ground-layer disturbance promotes recruitment of some invasive plant species.

Two new species of egg parasitoids, Oobius saimaensis Yao and Mottern new species and Oobius fleischeri Yao and Duan new species (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae), are described from eggs of Agrilus fleischeri Obenberger, 1925 (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). Agrilus fleischeri is a phloem-feeding woodborer of poplar (Populus Linnaeus; Salicaceae) in northeastern China. These two species can be distinguished morphologically as O. fleischeri has five tarsomeres and O. saimaensis has four tarsomeres. Although O. saimaensis is morphologically similar to its sympatric congener O. agrili Zhang and Hang, 2005, an important natural enemy of the invasive emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888, molecular phylogenetics and morphological data indicate that they are distinct species. Phylogenetic relationships among the new species and other closely related species are also inferred by using DNA sequence data from several ribosomal and mitochondrial genes. In addition, we expand the known distribution of Oobius primorskyensis Yao and Duan, 2016 to include South Korea.

Quantification of lean body mass and fat mass can provide important insight into epidemiological research. However, there is no consensus on generalisable anthropometric prediction equations to validly estimate body composition. We aimed to develop and validate practical anthropometric prediction equations for lean body mass, fat mass and percent fat in adults (men, n 7531; women, n 6534) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2006. Using a prediction sample, we predicted each of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-measured lean body mass, fat mass and percent fat based on different combinations of anthropometric measures. The proposed equations were validated using a validation sample and obesity-related biomarkers. The practical equation including age, race, height, weight and waist circumference had high predictive ability for lean body mass (men: R2=0·91, standard error of estimate (SEE)=2·6 kg; women: R2=0·85, SEE=2·4 kg) and fat mass (men: R2=0·90, SEE=2·6 kg; women: R2=0·93, SEE=2·4 kg). Waist circumference was a strong predictor in men only. Addition of other circumference and skinfold measures slightly improved the prediction model. For percent fat, R2 were generally lower but the trend in variation explained was similar. Our validation tests showed robust and consistent results with no evidence of substantial bias. Additional validation using biomarkers demonstrated comparable abilities to predict obesity-related biomarkers between direct DXA measurements and predicted scores. Moreover, predicted fat mass and percent fat had significantly stronger associations with obesity-related biomarkers than BMI did. Our findings suggest the potential application of the proposed equations in various epidemiological settings.

Knowledge regarding association of dietary branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), and the contribution of BCAA from meat to the risk of T2D are scarce. We evaluated associations between dietary BCAA intake, meat intake, interaction between BCAA and meat intake and risk of T2D. Data analyses were performed for 74 155 participants aged 50−79 years at baseline from the Women’s Health Initiative for up to 15 years of follow-up. We excluded from analysis participants with treated T2D, and factors potentially associated with T2D or missing covariate data. The BCAA and total meat intake was estimated from FFQ. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed the relationship between BCAA intake, meat intake, and T2D, adjusting for confounders. A 20 % increment in total BCAA intake (g/d and %energy) was associated with a 7 % higher risk for T2D (hazard ratio (HR) 1·07; 95 % CI 1·05, 1·09). For total meat intake, a 20 % increment was associated with a 4 % higher risk of T2D (HR 1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·05). The associations between BCAA intake and T2D were attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for total meat intake. These relations did not materially differ with or without adjustment for BMI. Our results suggest that dietary BCAA and meat intake are positively associated with T2D among postmenopausal women. The association of BCAA and diabetes risk was attenuated but remained positive after adjustment for meat intake suggesting that BCAA intake in part but not in full is contributing to the association of meat with T2D risk.

Background: Patients with arterial perinatal stroke often suffer long-term motor sequelae, difficulties in language, social development, and behaviour as well as epilepsy. Despite homogeneous lesions, long-term behavioural and cognitive outcomes are variable and unpredictable. Sleep-related epileptic encephalopathies can occur after early brain injury and are associated with global developmental delays. We hypothesized that sleep-potentiated epileptiform abnormalities are associated with worse developmental outcomes after perinatal stroke. Methods: Participants were identified from a population-based cohort (Alberta Perinatal Stroke Project). Inclusion criteria were magnetic resonance imaging–confirmed arterial perinatal stroke, age 4 to 18 years, electroencephalogram (EEG) including sleep, and comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. Sleep-related EEG abnormalities were categorized by an epileptologist blinded to the cognitive outcome. Associations between EEG classification and neuropsychological outcomes were explored (t tests, Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons). Results:Of 128 potentially eligible participants, 34 (53% female) had complete EEG (mean age, 8.1 years; range, 0.2-16.4) and neuropsychology testing (mean age, 9.8 years; range 4.4-16.7). Twelve (35%) were classified as having electrical status epilepticus in sleep. Patients with abnormal EEGs were more likely to have statistically worse scores when corrected for multiple comparisons, in receptive language (median, 1st percentile; IQR 1-7th percentile; p<0.05), and externalizing behaviours (median, 82nd percentile; IQR, 79-97th percentile; p<0.05). Conclusions: Developmental outcome in language and behaviour in children with arterial perinatal stroke is associated with electrical status epilepticus in sleep. Increased screening with sleep EEG is suggested, whereas further studies are necessary to determine if treatment of EEG abnormalities can improve outcome.