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Small islands can guide visualization of the diverse information requirements of future context-relevant coastal governance. On small marine islands (<20 000 km2), negative effects of coastal challenges (e.g., related to population growth, unsustainable resource use or climate change) can develop rapidly, with high intensity and extreme impacts. The smallest and most remote islands within small-island states and small islands in larger states can be threatened by intrinsic governance factors, typically resulting in access to fewer resources than larger islands or administrative centres. For these reasons, efforts to support coastal change governance are critical and need to be targeted. We propose a conceptual framework that distinguishes key governance-related components of small-island social–ecological systems (SESs). To prioritize areas of vulnerability and opportunity, physical, ecological, social, economic and governance attributes are visualized to help show the ability of different types of small-island SESs to adapt, or be transformed, in the face of global and local change. Application of the framework to an Indonesian archipelago illustrates examples of local rule enforcement supporting local self-organized marine governance. Visualization of complex and interconnected social, environmental and economic changes in small-island SESs provides a better understanding of the vulnerabilities and opportunities related to context-specific governance.
Because the Anthropocene by definition is an epoch during which environmental change is largely anthropogenic and driven by social, economic, psychological and political forces, environmental social scientists can effectively analyse human behaviour and knowledge systems in this context. In this subject review, we summarize key ways in which the environmental social sciences can better inform fisheries management policy and practice and marine conservation in the Anthropocene. We argue that environmental social scientists are particularly well positioned to synergize research to fill the gaps between: (1) local behaviours/needs/worldviews and marine resource management and biological conservation concerns; and (2) large-scale drivers of planetary environmental change (globalization, affluence, technological change, etc.) and local cognitive, socioeconomic, cultural and historical processes that shape human behaviour in the marine environment. To illustrate this, we synthesize the roles of various environmental social science disciplines in better understanding the interaction between humans and tropical marine ecosystems in developing nations where issues arising from human–coastal interactions are particularly pronounced. We focus on: (1) the application of the environmental social sciences in marine resource management and conservation; (2) the development of ‘new’ socially equitable marine conservation; (3) repopulating the seascape; (4) incorporating multi-scale dynamics of marine social–ecological systems; and (5) envisioning the future of marine resource management and conservation for producing policies and projects for comprehensive and successful resource management and conservation in the Anthropocene.
Associations between employment status and mental health are well recognised, but evidence is sparse on the relationship between paid employment and mental health in the years running up to statutory retirement ages using robust mental health measures. In addition, there has been no investigation into the stability over time in this relationship: an important consideration if survey findings are used to inform future policy. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between employment status and common mental disorder (CMD) in 50–64-year old residents in England and its stability over time, taking advantage of three national mental health surveys carried out over a 14-year period.
Data were analysed from the British National Surveys of Psychiatric Morbidity of 1993, 2000 and 2007. Paid employment status was the primary exposure of interest and CMD the primary outcome – both ascertained identically in all three surveys (CMD from the revised Clinical Interview Schedule). Multivariable logistic regression models were used.
The prevalence of CMD was higher in people not in paid employment across all survey years; however, this association was only present for non-employment related to poor health as an outcome and was not apparent in those citing other reasons for non-employment. Odds ratios for the association between non-employment due to ill health and CMD were 3.05 in 1993, 3.56 in 2000, and 2.80 in 2007, after adjustment for age, gender, marital status, education, social class, housing tenure, financial difficulties, smoking status, recent physical health consultation and activities of daily living impairment.
The prevalence of CMD was higher in people not in paid employment for health reasons, but was not associated with non-employment for other reasons. Associations had been relatively stable in strength from 1993 to 2007 in those three cross-sectional nationally representative samples.
Many adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remain undiagnosed. Specialist assessment clinics enable the detection of these cases, but such services are often overstretched. It has been proposed that unnecessary referrals to these services could be reduced by prioritizing individuals who score highly on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ), a self-report questionnaire measure of autistic traits. However, the ability of the AQ to predict who will go on to receive a diagnosis of ASD in adults is unclear.
We studied 476 adults, seen consecutively at a national ASD diagnostic referral service for suspected ASD. We tested AQ scores as predictors of ASD diagnosis made by expert clinicians according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 criteria, informed by the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-Generic (ADOS-G) and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) assessments.
Of the participants, 73% received a clinical diagnosis of ASD. Self-report AQ scores did not significantly predict receipt of a diagnosis. While AQ scores provided high sensitivity of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72–0.82] and positive predictive value of 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.80), the specificity of 0.29 (95% CI 0.20–0.38) and negative predictive value of 0.36 (95% CI 0.22–0.40) were low. Thus, 64% of those who scored below the AQ cut-off were ‘false negatives’ who did in fact have ASD. Co-morbidity data revealed that generalized anxiety disorder may ‘mimic’ ASD and inflate AQ scores, leading to false positives.
The AQ's utility for screening referrals was limited in this sample. Recommendations supporting the AQ's role in the assessment of adult ASD, e.g. UK NICE guidelines, may need to be reconsidered.
Accurate data on the incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) disease are important for directing public health education and control activities. The objective of this project was to assess the underdiagnosis of WNV neuroinvasive disease through laboratory testing of patients with suspected viral meningitis or encephalitis at selected hospitals serving WNV-endemic regions in three states. Of the 279 patients with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens tested for WNV immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies, 258 (92%) were negative, 19 (7%) were positive, and two (1%) had equivocal results. Overall, 63% (12/19) of patients with WNV IgM-positive CSF had WNV IgM testing ordered by their attending physician. Seven (37%) cases would not have been identified as probable WNV infections without the further testing conducted through this project. These findings indicate that over a third of WNV infections in patients with clinically compatible neurological illness might be undiagnosed due to either lack of testing or inappropriate testing, leading to substantial underestimates of WNV neuroinvasive disease burden. Efforts should be made to educate healthcare providers and laboratorians about the local epidemiology of arboviral diseases and the optimal tests to be used in different clinical situations.
Investigations describing the utilization pattern and comparing the outcome from emergency and mass casualty situations are limited by the lack of a reliable and valid patient classification system. In this study we briefly describe the use of APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), a physiologically based classification system for measuring severity of illness in groups of critically ill patients, as a tool in comparing outcomes of 1437 ICU admissions from eight European and five American hospitals. Because of the successful results from this pilot effort, we believe that APACHE could be used to compare the performance of hospitals in an emergency or mass casualty situation.
Si1−xGex/Si heterostructures with varying layer-thicknesses have been characterized using photoluminescence and magnetic resonance detected on photoluminescence. Three of the four samples studied exhibit sharp photoluminescence bands at different energies. For a 120 Å Si/40 Å Si1−xGex heterostructure, magnetic resonance of an electron in the Si and of a hole in the Sil. xGex layers were observed. These results indicate cross-interface, or Type II, excitonic recombination. Further, anisotropie magnetic resonance spectra indicate the presence of dangling-bonds defects in the heterostructures.
How can Japan put its past behind? Scholars, journalists, and activists frequently argue that Japan cannot solve its “history problem” unless it follows West Germany's lead in offering contrition for World War II violence. Into this debate, Jennifer Lind's Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics offers an original and provocative contribution. Lind argues that while countries should acknowledge past atrocities, frequent public apologies can be domestically polarizing and diplomatically counterproductive. Sorry States outlines a theory of remembrance and threat perception and tests it in a comparative study of Japanese-South Korean and Franco-German relations after World War II. Its methods, data, and findings will interest not only East Asianists, but also scholars of international reconciliation and security studies more broadly. This roundtable presents three critical essays in addition to a response by the author. They discuss the mechanisms through which historical memory influences perceptions of threat, the relative weight of ideational versus material factors in threat perception, and whether changes in international norms and economic interdependence may increasingly pressure countries to confront past violence.
Velo-cardio-facial syndrome (VCFS) is associated with deletions at chromosome 22q11, abnormalities in brain anatomy and function, and schizophrenia-like psychosis. Thus it is assumed that one or more genes within the deleted region are crucial to brain development. However, relatively little is known about how genetic variation at 22q11 affects brain structure and function. One gene on 22q11 is catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT): an enzyme that degrades dopamine and contains a functional polymorphism (Val158Met) affecting enzyme activity. Here, we investigated the effect of COMT Val158Met polymorphism on brain anatomy and cognition in adults with VCFS.
The COMT Val158Met polymorphism was genotyped for 26 adults with VCFS on whom DNA was available. We explored its effects on regional brain volumes using hand tracing approaches; on regional grey- and white-matter density using computerized voxel-based analyses; and measures of attention, IQ, memory, executive and visuospatial function using a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery.
After corrections for multiple comparisons Val-hemizygous subjects, compared with Met-hemizygotes, had a significantly larger volume of frontal lobes. Also, Val-hemizygotes had significantly increased grey matter density in cerebellum, brainstem, and parahippocampal gyrus, and decreased white matter density in the cerebellum. No significant effects of COMT genotype on neurocognitive performance were found.
COMT genotype effects on brain anatomy in VCFS are not limited to frontal regions but also involve other structures previously implicated in VCFS. This suggests variation in COMT activity is implicated in brain development in VCFS.
Salmonella Goldcoast (SGC), an uncommon serotype in Germany, was identified in 25 isolates between 1 April and 7 May 2001. To determine the cause of the outbreak, we conducted a matched case-control study including 24 cases and 51 controls. In a multivariable regression model, only consumption of a raw fermented sausage manufactured by a local company remained significant (adjusted odds ratio 20·0, 95% confidence interval 2·7–302·5). SGC isolated from case-patients shared an indistinguishable pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern. A part of the produced raw fermented sausage was sold after only 4 days of fermentation. Samples from the premises and products of the company were negative for SGC. However, short-time raw fermented sausage is more likely to contain pathogens. Irradiation of raw ingredients is not accepted by German consumers, thus strict adherence to good manufacturing practices, the use of HACCP programmes as well as on-farm programmes remain crucial to reduce Salmonella.
The editors of the Review of International Studies have posed a timely challenge to what they term American realism. In broad terms, their editorial makes two points: first, realism has lost its relevance to current international policy; and second, realism does a poor job of explaining the behaviour of the world's major powers. In this brief essay I argue that both of these points are greatly overstated, if not simply wrong. At the same time, I accept that realism provides less leverage in addressing the full spectrum of issues facing the major powers in the post-Soviet and now the post-9/11 world than it did during the Cold War. However, this is neither surprising nor a serious problem, because scholars who use a realist lens to understand international politics can, and have, without inconsistency or contradiction also employed other theories to understand issues that fall outside realism's central focus.
Reliable and precise ages of Quaternary pedogenic carbonate can be obtained with 230Th/U dating by thermal ionization mass spectrometry applied to carefully selected milligram-size samples. Datable carbonate can form within a few thousand years of surface stabilization allowing ages of Quaternary deposits and surfaces to be closely estimated. Pedogenic carbonate clast-rinds from gravels of glacio-fluvial terraces in the Wind River Basin have median concentrations of 14 ppm U and 0.07 ppm 232Th, with median (230Th/232Th) = 270, making them well suited for 230Th/U dating. Horizons as thin as 0.5 mm were sampled from polished slabs to reduce averaging of long (≥105 yr), and sometimes visibly discontinuous, depositional histories. Dense, translucent samples with finite 230Th/U ages preserve within-rind stratigraphic order in all cases. Ages for terraces WR4 (167,000 ± 6,400 yr) and WR2 (55,000 ± 8600 yr) indicate a mean incision rate of 0.26 ± 0.05 m per thousand years for the Wind River over the past glacial cycle, slower than inferred from cosmogenic-nuclide dating. Terrace WR3, which formed penecontemporaneously with the final maximum glacial advance of the penultimate Rocky Mountain (Bull Lake) glaciation, has an age of 150,000 ± 8300 yr indicating that it is broadly synchronous with the penultimate global ice volume maximum.
Robert Jervis's article “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma” is among the most important works in international relations of the past few decades. In it, Jervis develops two essential arguments. First, he explains that the security dilemma is the key to understanding how in an anarchic international system states with fundamentally compatible goals still end up in competition and at war. The security dilemma exists when “many of the means by which a state tries1 to increase its security decrease the security of others.” It provides the rational foundation for what Jervis termed the “spiral model,” which describes how the interaction between states that are seeking only security can fuel competition and strain political relations.2 Second, Jervis explains that the magnitude and nature of the security dilemma depend on two variables: the offense-defense balance and offense-defense differentiation.3 As a result, the security dilemma can vary across space and time. Although states exist in a condition of international anarchy that does not vary, there can be significant variation in the attractiveness of cooperative or competitive means, the prospects for achieving a high level of security, and the probability of war.
Analyses of military strategy often overlook its political consequences—its effect on the adversary's basic goals and understanding of the defender's resolve. As a result, they prescribe the wrong type of military policy and reduce states' security. This article explores how a variety of factors interact to produce political consequences. These factors include the type of adversary (specifically, its motives for expansion); the type of military strategy the defender adopts (offensive or defensive and unilateral or bilateral); the source of the adversary's misperceptions; and the process through which political consequences are generated. The article reformulates Jervis's spiral and deterrence models and argues that they overlook types of adversaries, including most importantly insecure greedy states; that shifts in the adversary's balance of domestic power offer an alternative to individual learning as the basic way in which political consequences are generated; that national-level failures of evaluation provide an alternative source of exaggerated insecurity; and that these differences can require the defender to follow different policies. Final sections explore military options for managing political consequences and implications for U.S. security policy.
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