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We extend classical ideal point estimation to allow voters to have different preferences when voting in different domains—for example, when voting on agricultural policy than when voting on defense policy. Our scaling procedure results in estimated ideal points on a common scale. As a result, we are able to directly compare a member’s revealed preferences across different domains of voting (different sets of motions) to assess if, for example, a member votes more conservatively on agriculture motions than on defense. In doing so, we are able to assess the extent to which voting behavior of an individual voter is consistent with a uni-dimensional spatial model—if a member has the same preferences in all domains. The key novelty is to estimate rather than assume the identity of “stayers”—voters whose revealed preference is constant across votes. Our approach offers methodology for investigating the relationship between the basic space and issue space in legislative voting (Poole 2007). There are several methodological advantages to our approach. First, our model allows for testing sharp hypotheses. Second, the methodology developed can be understood as a kind of partial-pooling model for item response theory scaling, resulting in less uncertainty of estimates. Related, our estimation method provides a principled and unified approach to the issue of “granularity” (i.e., the level of aggregation) in the analysis of roll-call data (Crespin and Rohde 2010; Roberts et al. 2016). We illustrate the model by estimating U.S. House of Representatives members’ revealed preferences in different policy domains, and identify several other potential applications of the model including: studying the relationship between committee and floor voting behavior; and investigating constituency influence and representation.
Little is know about fracture risks in mentally ill adults. We aimed to estimate risks of fracture at any site, and at sites linked with osteoporosis, in this group versus the general population.
We created a population-based cohort using the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD), with follow-up during 1987-2005. We investigated age and sex-specific fracture risks in psychotic illness (N=4283), non-psychotic affective disorder (N=95,228), and any other psychiatric conditions (N=49,439). Controls were all subjects with no psychiatric code (N=182,851) against which age-stratified relative risks were estimated: 18-44, 45-74, 75+ years. Outcomes were incident cases of fracture at any site, the hip and distal radius.
Among all mentally ill women, the highest relative risks of fracture at any site were in the youngest age group, whereas the strongest effects in men were with older age. The highest raised risk of any fracture occurred in younger women with psychotic disorders (RR 2.5, CI 1.5-4.3). Hip fracture rates were raised in elderly women and men with psychiatric illness, and were especially high in women (RR 5.1, CI 2.7-9.6) and men (RR 6.4, CI 2.6-16.1) with psychotic disorders at 45-74 years. Data were sparse for estimating relative risk of distal radius fracture, although risk was modestly (but significantly) higher among women with any mental illness in each age group.
These elevated risks are likely to be explained by a range of mechanisms. Further research is needed to elucidate these and to inform the development of targeted interventions.
Population-based evidence is lacking for risk of major birth defect with parental psychopathology, and how effects vary by maternal and paternal diagnosis. We aimed to investigate this risk in offspring of parents admitted for psychiatric treatment in a 26-year national birth cohort.
The study cohort was created using several linked Danish national registers. We identified all singleton live births during 1973-98 (N=1.45m), all parental psychiatric admissions from 1969 onwards, and all fatal birth defects until 1st Jan. 1999. Linkage and case ascertainment were virtually complete. Relative risks were estimated by Poisson regression.
Fatal birth defect risk was elevated with any maternal admission and also with affective disorders specifically, although the strongest effect found was with maternal schizophrenia. The rate was more than doubled in this group compared to the general population (RR 2.34, 95% CI 1.45-3.77); this also represented a significant excess risk versus all other admitted maternal disorders (P=0.018). Risk of death from causes other than birth defect was no higher with schizophrenia than with other maternal conditions. There was no elevation in risk of fatal birth defect if the father was admitted with schizophrenia or any other psychiatric diagnosis.
There are many possible explanations for a higher risk of fatal birth defect with maternal schizophrenia and affective disorder. These include genetic effects directly linked with maternal illness, lifestyle factors (diet, smoking, alcohol and drugs), poor antenatal care, psychotropic medication, and gene-environment interactions. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms.
The results of Bayesian analysis using 43 new high-precision AMS radiocarbon dates on maize, faunal remains, and ceramic residues from 18 precontact Iroquoian village sites in Northern New York are presented. Once thought to span AD 1350–1500, the period of occupation suggested by the modeling is approximately AD 1450–1510. This late placement now makes clear that Iroquoians arrived in the region approximately 100 years later than previously thought. This result halves the time in which population growth and significant changes in settlement occurred. The new chronology allows us to better match these events within a broader Northeast temporal framework.
Although disaster-related posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) typically decrease in intensity over time, some youth continue to report elevated levels of PTSS many years after the disaster. The current study examines two processes that may help to explain the link between disaster exposure and enduring PTSS: caregiver emotion socialization and youth recollection qualities. One hundred and twenty-two youth (ages 12 to 17) and their female caregivers who experienced an EF-4 tornado co-reminisced about the event, and adolescents provided independent recollections between 3 and 4 years after the tornado. Adolescent individual transcripts were coded for coherence and negative personal impact, qualities that have been found to contribute to meaning making. Parent–adolescent conversations were coded for caregiver egocentrism, a construct derived from the emotion socialization literature to reflect the extent to which the caregiver centered the conversation on her own emotions and experiences. Egocentrism predicted higher youth PTSS, and this association was mediated by the coherence of adolescents’ narratives. The association between coherence and PTSS was stronger for youth who focused more on the negative personal impacts of the tornado event during their recollections. Results suggest that enduring tornado-related PTSS may be influenced in part by the interplay of caregiver emotion socialization practices and youth recollection qualities.