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In engineering design, surrogate models are often used instead of costly computer simulations. Typically, a single surrogate model is selected based on the previous experience. We observe, based on an analysis of the published literature, that fitting an ensemble of surrogates (EoS) based on cross-validation errors is more accurate but requires more computational time. In this paper, we propose a method to build an EoS that is both accurate and less computationally expensive. In the proposed method, the EoS is a weighted average surrogate of response surface models, kriging, and radial basis functions based on overall cross-validation error. We demonstrate that created EoS is accurate than individual surrogates even when fewer data points are used, so computationally efficient with relatively insensitive predictions. We demonstrate the use of an EoS using hot rod rolling as an example. Finally, we include a rule-based template which can be used for other problems with similar requirements, for example, the computational time, required accuracy, and the size of the data.
We present an information-based total-energy optimization method to produce nearly defect-free structural models of amorphous silicon. Using geometrical, structural, and topological information from disordered tetrahedral networks, we have shown that it is possible to generate structural configurations of amorphous silicon, which are superior than the models obtained from conventional reverse Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulations. The new data-driven hybrid approach presented here is capable of producing atomistic models with structural and electronic properties which are on a par with those obtained from the modified Wooten-Winer-Weaire (WWW) models of amorphous silicon. Structural, electronic, and thermodynamic properties of the hybrid models are compared with the best dynamical models obtained from using machine-intelligence-based algorithms and efficient classical molecular dynamics simulations, reported in the recent literature. We have shown that, together with the WWW models, our hybrid models represent one of the best structural models so far produced by total-energy-based Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with experimental diffraction data.
Unusual mafic rock fragments deposited in Plio-Pleistocene-aged marine sediments were recorded at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1359, in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica. These fragments were identified from sediment layers deposited between c. 3 and 1.2 Ma, indicating a sustained supply during this time interval. Clinopyroxenes in these basalts are Al–Ti diopside–hedenbergite, uncommon in terrestrial magmatic rocks. A single strong peak in the Raman spectra of a phosphate-bearing mineral at 963 cm-1 supports the presence of merrillite. Although not conclusive, petrological traits and oxygen isotopic compositions also suggest that the fragments may be extra-terrestrial fragments affected by shock metamorphism. Nevertheless, it is concluded that the basaltic fragments incorporated in marine sediments at Site U1359 represent ice-rafted material supplied to the continental rise of East Antarctica, probably from the bedrocks near the proximal Ninnis Glacier. Further studies on Plio-Pleistocene sediments near Site U1359 are required to characterize the unusual mafic rocks described.
Using time-resolved laser-scanning confocal microscopy and ultrafast optical pump/THz probe spectroscopy, we measure photoluminescence (PL) and THz-conductivity in perovskite micro-crystals and films. PL quenching and lifetime variations occur from local heterogeneity. Ultrafast THz-spectra measure sharp quantum transitions from excitonic Rydberg states, providing weakly bound excitons with a binding energy of ~13.5 meV at low temperatures. Ab-initio electronic structure calculations give a direct band gap of 1.64 eV, a dielectric constant of ~18, heavy electrons, and light holes, resulting in weakly bound excitons, consistent with the binding energies from the experiment. The complementary spectroscopy and simulations reveal fundamental insights into perovskite light-matter interactions.
The present study aimed to evaluate growth performance and meat quality of broiler chicken with respect to feeding of 100 g flaxseed meal (FM)/kg and increasing lysine levels in the broiler diet. The results revealed no effect of lysine and FM feeding on growth performance except for a negative effect of FM on feed efficiency of birds, which was countered by feeding 1.25 BIS lysine. Feeding FM improved the fatty acid profile of broiler chicken meat significantly, whereas no effect was observed for increasing lysine levels beyond BIS recommendation. FM significantly reduced meat cholesterol, fat, water-holding capacity (WHC), extract release volume (ERV) and antioxidant potential, whereas it increased the pH of fresh meat, drip loss and lipid peroxidation of broiler chicken meat. As compared with other lysine levels, generally 1.25 BIS lysine significantly increased the pH of refrigerated stored meat, WHC, ERV and antioxidant potential, whereas it significantly reduced cholesterol, fat, drip loss and lipid peroxidation of broiler chicken meat. Thus, the inclusion of 100 g FM/kg diet along with 1.25 BIS lysine in broiler ration was optimum for desirable broiler performance, fatty acid profile, oxidative stability and other functional properties of broiler chicken meat.
The authors develop a simple analytical framework to study the welfare-maximizing environmental standards when market entry is endogenous and firms can circumvent regulation by bribing corrupt officials. Corruption changes the tradeoff in environmental policy. Corruption leads more polluting firms to enter into the market, which requires tighter environmental regulation. However, corruption also makes trading in some environmental protection for a marginally higher market entry optimal for the government.
We describe a study of the E–W-trending South Wagad Fault (SWF) complex at the eastern part of the Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB) in Western India. This basin was filled during Late Cretaceous time, and is presently undergoing tectonic inversion. During the late stage of the inversion cycle, all the principal rift faults were reactivated as transpressional strike-slip faults. The SWF complex shows wrench geometry of an anastomosing en échelon fault, where contractional and extensional segments and offsets alternate along the Principal Deformation Zone (PDZ). Geometric analysis of different segments of the SWF shows that several conjugate faults, which are a combination of R synthetic and R’ antithetic, propagate at a short distance along the PDZ and interact, generating significant fault slip partitioning. Surface morphology of the fault zone revealed three deformation zones: a 500 m to 1 km wide single fault zone; a 5–6 km wide double fault zone; and a c. 500 m wide diffuse fault zone. The single fault zone is represented by a higher stress accumulation which is located close to the epicentre of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake of Mw 7.7. The double fault zone represents moderate stress at releasing bends bounded by two fault branches. The diffuse fault zone represents a low-stress zone where several fault branches join together. Our findings are well corroborated with the available geological and seismological data.
A cross-sectional survey was carried out in Bangladesh with the sampling of 514 Black Bengal goats on smallholdings to determine the presence of sorbitol non-fermenting (SNF) Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC). Swab samples collected from the recto-anal junction were plated onto cefixime and potassium tellurite added sorbitol MacConkey (CT-SMAC) agar, a selective medium for STEC O157 serogroup, where this serogroup and other SNF STEC produce colourless colonies. The SNF E. coli (SNF EC) isolates obtained from the survey were investigated by PCR for the presence of Shiga toxin-producing genes, stx1 and stx2, and two other virulence genes, eae and hlyA that code for adherence factor (intimin protein) and pore-forming cytolysin, respectively. The SNF EC isolates were also assessed for the presence of the rfbO157 gene to verify their identity to O157 serogroup. The results revealed that the proportions of goats carrying SNF EC isolates and stx1 and stx2 genes were 6·2% (32/514) [95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4–8·7)], 1·2% (95% CI 0·5–2·6) and 1·2% (95% CI 0·5–2·6), respectively. All the SNF STEC tested negative for rfbO157, hlyA and eae genes. The risk for transmission of STEC from Black Bengal goats to humans is low.
We investigated faecal samples collected from the rectum of 518 cattle on 371 randomly selected smallholdings in Bangladesh for the presence of sorbitol non-fermenting (SN-F) shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The SN-F isolates were tested for the presence of rfb O157, stx1, stx2, eae and hlyA genes by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Seven SN-F isolates lacking these genes were profiled by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) to verify their clonality. SN-F E. coli was identified in 44 [8·5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6·4–11·2] samples; of these, 28 (5·4%, 95% CI 3·8–7·7) had shiga toxin-producing strains, although only two carried the rfb O157 gene. Thirteen isolates carried the hlyA gene while 18 harboured the eae gene. Based on PFGE, six pulsotypes were observed among the seven isolates that had no virulence genes. To the best of our knowledge this is the first report on shiga toxin-producing E. coli from direct rectal faecal samples of cattle on smallholdings.
This work reports the preparation of iron-doped alumino-phosphate glass using microwave (MW) radiation at 1723 K in comparision with a conventional resistance heating furnace at the same temperature. X-ray diffraction analysis of the sample prepared in an MW furnace has confirmed glass formation which is similar to that of glass prepared in an electric furnace. Glass transition temperatures (Tg) for MW and conventional melted glass samples were observed to be 866 and 873 K, respectively. Higher Fe2+/(Fe3+ + Fe2+) ratio was reported in glass prepared in the MW furnace compared with the conventional furnace. The Fourier transform infrared spectra for both the samples indicate identical nature. It was observed that the maximum power required for melting glass in MW heating was 0.85 kW, which is around 25–30% of the power consumed by the conventional resistance heating furnace. In addition, the time needed to melt the glass in the MW furnace was found to be 3–4-fold lesser than the time required in the resistance heating furnace.
To assess whether nutritional deficiency increases susceptibility to arsenic-related health effects.
Assessment of nutrition was based on a 24 h recall method of all dietary constituents.
Epidemiological cross-sectional study was conducted in an arsenic-endemic area of West Bengal with groundwater arsenic contamination.
The study was composed of two groups – Group 1 (cases, n 108) exhibiting skin lesions and Group 2 (exposed controls, n 100) not exhibiting skin lesions – age- and sex-matched and having similar arsenic exposure through drinking water and arsenic levels in urine and hair.
Both groups belonged to low socio-economic strata (Group 1 significantly poorer, P < 0·01) and had low BMI (prevalence of BMI < 18·5 kg/m2: in 38 % in Group 1 and 27 % in Group 2). Energy intake was below the Recommended Daily Allowance (set by the Indian Council of Medical Research) in males and females in both groups. Increased risk of arsenical skin lesions was found for those in the lowest quintile of protein intake (v. highest quintile: OR = 4·60, 95 % CI 1·36, 15·50 in males; OR = 5·62, 95 % CI 1·19, 34·57 in females). Significantly lower intakes of energy, protein, thiamin, niacin, Mg, Zn and choline were observed in both males and females of Group 1 compared with Group 2. Significantly lower intakes of carbohydrate, riboflavin, niacin and Cu were also observed in female cases with skin lesions compared with non-cases.
Deficiencies of Zn, Mg and Cu, in addition to protein, B vitamins and choline, are found to be associated with arsenical skin lesions in West Bengal.
We have successfully prepared La0.5Sr0.5MnO3nanowires using a novel hydrothermal synthesis process and studied their magnetic and magnetocaloric properties. The system exhibits an inverse magnetocaloric effect (IMCE) around 175 K indicating presence of significant AFM correlation. The MCE study reveals a clear paramagnetic (PM) to ferromagnetic (FM) transition near room temperature (T ~ 325K) which is followed by onset of AFM at lower temperatures. The development of the FM-like magnetic state at low temperature is attributed to the enhanced double exchange (DE) driven ferromagnetism in AFM state as predicted by recent theoretical studies.
Thin film silicon solar cells are an attractive option for the production of sustainable energy but their low response at long wavelengths requires additional measures for absorption enhancement. The most successful concepts are based on light scattering interface textures whose understanding is greatly facilitated by considering a superposition of periodic textures that diffract the light into oblique angles, ideally beyond the critical angle of total internal reflection. Because the thickness of the active layers is on the same scale as the wavelength, interference of diffracted waves gives rise to resonance phenomena. We discuss the absorption enhancement in terms of a perturbation approach using the modal structure of a corresponding device with flat interfaces.
Comparative studies have been carried out on the performance of the photovoltaic devices with dissimilar shapes of the InN nanostructures fabricated on p-Si (100). The devices fabricated with the nanodots show a superior performance compared to the devices fabricated with the nanorods. The discussions have been carried out on the superior junction property, larger effective junction area and inherent random pyramidal topographical texture of the cell fabricated with nanodots. Such single junction devices exhibit a promising fill factor and external quantum efficiency of 38% and 27%, respectively, under concentrated AM1.5 illumination.
The effect of silver nanoparticles showing localised plasmonic resonances on the efficiency of thin film silicon solar cells is studied. Silver (Ag) nanodiscs were deposited on the surface of silicon cells grown on highly doped silicon substrates, through hole-mask colloidal lithography, which is a low-cost and bottom-up technique. The cells have no back reflector in order to exclusively study the effect of the front surface on their properties. Cells with nanoparticles were compared with both bare silicon cells and cells with an antireflection coating. We optically observe a resonance showing an absorption increase controllable by the disc radius. We also see an increase in efficiency with respect to bare cells, but we see a decrease in efficiency with respect to cells with an antireflection coating due to losses at wavelengths below the plasmon resonance. As the material properties are not notably affected by the particles deposition, the loss mechanism is an important absorption in the nanoparticles. We confirm this by numerical simulations.
Rabies is a major public health problem in Bangladesh, where most of the population live in rural areas. However, there is little epidemiological information on rabies in rural Bangladesh. This study was conducted in 30 upazilas (subdistricts) covering all six divisions of the country, to determine the levels of rabies and animal bites in Bangladesh. The total population of these upazilas was 6 992 302. A pretested questionnaire was used and data were collected by interviewing the adult members of families. We estimated that in Bangladesh, 166 590 [95% confidence interval (CI) 163 350–170 550] people per year are bitten by an animal. The annual incidence of rabies deaths in Bangladesh was estimated to be 1·40 (95% CI 1·05–1·78)/100 000 population. By extrapolating this, we estimated that 2100 (95% CI 1575–2670) people die annually from rabies in Bangladesh. More than three-quarters of rabies patients died at home. This community-based study provides new information on rabies epidemiology in Bangladesh.
Unprecedented high rates of anthrax outbreaks have been observed recently in cattle and humans in Bangladesh, with 607 human cases in 2010. By enrolling 15 case and 15 control cattle smallholdings in the spatial zone in July–September 2010, we conducted a case-control study, data of which were analysed by matched-pair analysis and multivariable conditional logistic regression. Feeding animals with uprooted and unwashed grass [odds ratio (OR) 41·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·7–458·8, P=0·003], and feeding water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) (OR 22·2, 95% CI 1·2–418·7, P=0·039) were independent risk factors for anthrax in cattle.