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We review impacts of climate change, energy scarcity, and economic frameworks on sustainability of natural and human systems in coastal zones, areas of high biodiversity, productivity, population density, and economic activity. More than 50% of the global population lives within 200 km of a coast, mostly in tropical developing countries. These systems developed during stable Holocene conditions. Changes in global forcings are threatening sustainability of coastal ecosystems and populations. During the Holocene, the earth warmed and became wetter and more productive. Climate changes are impacting coastal systems via sea level rise, stronger tropical cyclones, changes in basin inputs, and extreme weather events. These impacts are passing tipping points as the fossil fuel-powered industrial-technological-agricultural revolution has overwhelmed the source–sink functions of the biosphere and degraded natural systems. The current status of industrialized society is primarily the result of fossil fuel (FF) use. FFs provided more than 80% of global primary energy and are projected to decline to 50% by mid-century. This has profound implications for societal energy requirements, including the transition to a renewable economy. The development of the industrial economy allowed coastal social systems to become spatially separated from their dominant energy and food sources. This will become more difficult to maintain with the fading of cheap energy. It seems inevitable that past growth in energy use, resource consumption, and economic growth cannot be sustained, and coastal areas are in the forefront of these challenges. Rapid planning and cooperation are necessary to minimize impacts of the changes associated with the coming transition. There is an urgent need for a new economic framework to guide society through the transition as mainstream neoclassical economics is not based on natural sciences and does not adequately consider either the importance of energy or the work of nature.
Structural compromises are one of the important underpinnings of the developmental origins of health and disease. Quantifying anatomic changes during development is difficult but improved technology for clinical imaging has brought new research opportunities for visualizing such alterations. During prenatal life, maternal malnutrition, toxic social stress and exposure to toxic chemicals change fetal organ structures in specific ways. High placental resistance suppresses cardiomyocyte endowment. New imaging techniques allow quantification of nephrons in cadaverous kidneys without tedious dissection. High fat diets can lead to fatty liver and fibrosis. Pancreatic islet numbers and function are compromised by poor maternal diets. Both social and nutritional stressors change wiring and cellular composition of the brain for life. Advances in optical imaging also offer exciting new technologies for viewing structure and function in cells stressed during development.
The relationship between the cow and calf develops over time after birth. The behavioural mechanisms underlying its development are important and comparisons with other species may increase our understanding. In nature the cow will separate herself from the herd to give birth and then the cow–calf relationship will develop with the ability to recognise each other. While twinning levels are low in cows, they do rear their twin calves. If the calf is lost at or after birth the cow can be responsive towards other calves and in specific circumstances the cow can develop a maternal bond with an alien calf, i.e. foster. In this Research Reflection a distinction is made between the development of, on the one hand, maternal responsiveness (the tendency of the cow to care for a calf which occurs before birth) and, on the other hand, the development of the maternal–filial bond or relationship which is reciprocal, occurs after birth and is characterised by the ability to discriminate the mother's own calf from alien calves. These processes can overlap and the relationship between cow and calf in this ‘hider’ species is more plastic than in some other mammals. For example, a cow might form an attachment with an alien calf before she gives birth. After the cow has given birth the loss of her own calf may result in the state of maternal responsiveness being maintained, such that developing a maternal bond with one or several appropriate alien calves is possible. Viable fostering techniques are possible. If a maternal relationship to the mother's own calf has developed then fostering will be more difficult. If the cow's relationship with her own calf is not exclusive, and she is in a state of maternal responsiveness then fostering of calves of an appropriate age and status can be achieved.
Shared patient–clinician decision-making is central to choosing between medical treatments. Decision support tools can have an important role to play in these decisions. We developed a decision support tool for deciding between nonsurgical treatment and surgical total knee replacement for patients with severe knee osteoarthritis. The tool aims to provide likely outcomes of alternative treatments based on predictive models using patient-specific characteristics. To make those models relevant to patients with knee osteoarthritis and their clinicians, we involved patients, family members, patient advocates, clinicians, and researchers as stakeholders in creating the models.
Methods:
Stakeholders were recruited through local arthritis research, advocacy, and clinical organizations. After being provided with brief methodological education sessions, stakeholder views were solicited through quarterly patient or clinician stakeholder panel meetings and incorporated into all aspects of the project.
Results:
Participating in each aspect of the research from determining the outcomes of interest to providing input on the design of the user interface displaying outcome predications, 86% (12/14) of stakeholders remained engaged throughout the project. Stakeholder engagement ensured that the prediction models that form the basis of the Knee Osteoarthritis Mathematical Equipoise Tool and its user interface were relevant for patient–clinician shared decision-making.
Conclusions:
Methodological research has the opportunity to benefit from stakeholder engagement by ensuring that the perspectives of those most impacted by the results are involved in study design and conduct. While additional planning and investments in maintaining stakeholder knowledge and trust may be needed, they are offset by the valuable insights gained.
The Battelle Critical Care Decontamination System™ (CCDS™) decontaminates N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) using vapor phase hydrogen peroxide (VPHP) for reuse when there is a critical supply shortage. The Battelle CCDS received an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in March 2020. This research focused on evaluating the mechanical properties of the straps as an indicator of respirator fit. The objective was to characterize the load generated by the straps following up to 20 don/doff and decontamination cycles in Battelle's CCDS. In general, the measured loads at 50 and 100% strains after 20 cycles were similar (±15%) to the as-received controls. Qualitatively, reductions in the load may be associated with loss of elasticity in the straps, potentially reducing the ability to obtain a proper fit. However, small changes in strap elasticity may not affect the ability to obtain a proper fit given the potential for variation in strap length and positioning on the head. Regardless, prior to reusing a N95 respirator, it is important to complete a visual inspection to ensure it is not damaged, malformed, or soiled. If so, it is recommended to discard the respirator and use a different one. Similarly, the respirator should be discarded if the wearer cannot obtain a proper fit during the user seal check.
To enhance enrollment into randomized clinical trials (RCTs), we proposed electronic health record-based clinical decision support for patient–clinician shared decision-making about care and RCT enrollment, based on “mathematical equipoise.”
Objectives:
As an example, we created the Knee Osteoarthritis Mathematical Equipoise Tool (KOMET) to determine the presence of patient-specific equipoise between treatments for the choice between total knee replacement (TKR) and nonsurgical treatment of advanced knee osteoarthritis.
Methods:
With input from patients and clinicians about important pain and physical function treatment outcomes, we created a database from non-RCT sources of knee osteoarthritis outcomes. We then developed multivariable linear regression models that predict 1-year individual-patient knee pain and physical function outcomes for TKR and for nonsurgical treatment. These predictions allowed detecting mathematical equipoise between these two options for patients eligible for TKR. Decision support software was developed to graphically illustrate, for a given patient, the degree of overlap of pain and functional outcomes between the treatments and was pilot tested for usability, responsiveness, and as support for shared decision-making.
Results:
The KOMET predictive regression model for knee pain had four patient-specific variables, and an r2 value of 0.32, and the model for physical functioning included six patient-specific variables, and an r2 of 0.34. These models were incorporated into prototype KOMET decision support software and pilot tested in clinics, and were generally well received.
Conclusions:
Use of predictive models and mathematical equipoise may help discern patient-specific equipoise to support shared decision-making for selecting between alternative treatments and considering enrollment into an RCT.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Objective: Approximately 86 million people in the US have prediabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent diabetes. Further, the effectiveness of these therapies varies with individual risk of progression to diabetes. We estimated the value of targeting those individuals at highest diabetes risk for treatment, compared to treating all individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: METHODS: Using a micro-simulation model, we estimated total lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for individuals receiving: (1) lifestyle intervention involving an intensive program focused on healthy diet and exercise, (2) metformin administration, or (3) no intervention. The model combines several components. First a Cox proportional hazards model predicted onset of diabetes from baseline characteristics for each pre-diabetic individual and yielded a probability distribution for each alternative. We derived this risk model from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) clinical trial data and the follow-up study DPP-OS. The Michigan Diabetes Research Center Model for Diabetes then estimated costs and outcomes for individuals after diabetes diagnosis using standard of care diabetes treatment. Based on individual costs and QALE, we evaluated NMB of the two interventions at population and individual levels, stratified by risk quintiles for diabetes onset at 3 years. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results: Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits for all eligible individuals. Metformin’s NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use among individuals who would not benefit, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500-$800 per person, depending on duration of treatment effect. When treating only 20% of the population (e.g., due to capacity constraints), targeting conferred a NMB of $14,000-$18,000 per person for lifestyle modification and $16,000-$20,000 for metformin. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Conclusions: Metformin confers value only among higher risk individuals, so targeting its use is worthwhile. While lifestyle modification confers value for all eligible individuals, prioritizing the intervention to high risk patients when capacity is constrained substantially increases societal benefits.
Astrophyllite has been found in alkalic pegmatite dykes on the two sides of Kangerdlugssuaq fjord. At the eastern locality, Kraemers Island, the dyke is silica oversaturated and the astrophyllite occurs in a broad tabular crystal habit. The dyke at the western locality, Bagnaesset, is silica undersaturated and the astrophyllite occurs in elongated prisms of acicular habit. Electron probe analyses of the crystals of the two habits have shown systematic chemical differences which not only relate to Mn and Ti compositional variations, but also reveal departures from ideal stoichiometry in varying degrees. Based on this latter feature a model involving polysomatism has been constructed which may explain the differences in crystal habit.
A 2-yr field study was conducted to determine effects of posttreatment irrigation timing on pendimethalin efficacy and dissipation in turfgrass. Factors investigated included herbicide rate, formulation, and the interval between pendimethalin application and the initial posttreatment irrigation. Plots received an initial posttreatment irrigation of 1.25 cm 0, 7, 14, 21, and 28 d after treatment. Pendimethalin efficacy on smooth crabgrass was evaluated, and turfgrass foliage and the upper 2.5-cm layer of soil were periodically assayed for pendimethalin residues. Pendimethalin 1.71% granular provided better weed control than pendimethalin 60% wettable powder at all rates, irrigation events, and years. Efficacy of granular pendimethalin was not affected by a delay in posttreatment irrigation, whereas efficacy of pendimethalin in the wettable powder formulation was reduced when irrigation was applied later than the day of treatment. Chromatographic analyses indicated that an average of 54% of the applied pendimethalin (wettable powder formulation) was retained on turfgrass foliage immediately after treatment, compared to 9% for the granular formulation. Soil residue analyses confirmed that a greater proportion of applied pendimethalin reached the soil surface immediately after treatment in the granular formulation than in the wettable power formulation.
Soils from long-term tillage plots at three locations in Ohio were sampled to determine composition and size of weed seed banks following 25 yr of continuous no-tillage, minimum-tillage, or conventional-tillage corn production. The same herbicide was applied across tillage treatments within each year and an untreated permanent grass sod was sampled for comparison. Seed numbers to a 15-cm depth were highest in the no-tillage treatment in the Crosby silt loam (77 800 m–2) and Wooster silt loam (8400 m–2) soils and in the grass sod (7400 m–2) in a Hoytville silty clay loam soil. Lowest seed numbers were found in conventional-tillage plots in the Wooster soil (400 m–2) and in minimum-tillage plots in the Crosby (2200 m–2) and Hoytville (400 m–2) soils. Concentration of seeds decreased with depth but the effect of tillage on seed depth was not consistent among soil types. Number of weed species was highest in permanent grass sod (10 to 18) and decreased as soil disturbance increased; weed populations were lowest in conventional tillage in the Hoytville soil. Common lambsquarters, pigweeds, and fall panicum were the most commonly found seeds in all soils. Diversity indices indicated that increased soil disturbance resulted in a decrease in species diversity. Weed populations the summer following soil sampling included common lambsquarters, pigweeds, fall panicum, and several species not detected in the seed bank.
Common groundsel is an alien annual weed that has become increasingly troublesome in many crops in Ohio. Understanding the periodicity of seedling emergence and longevity of seeds buried in the soil may help growers devise more efficient strategies to control common groundsel. Studies were conducted to determine the dormancy status of common groundsel seeds over 24 mo, and to describe the effect of tillage and fertilizer on the pattern of seedling emergence and the rate of depletion of seeds from the soil seed bank. Common groundsel seeds were collected (June 2000 and 2002) from sites along a 700-km transect from Kentucky to Michigan (39°1′ and 43°36′N, respectively). Seeds were cleaned and placed in nylon mesh bags for burial in a common garden. Every month for the following 24 mo, replicate bags from each location were exhumed. Germination was tested under alternating temperatures of 20 and 10 C, for 14 and 10 h day/night, respectively. Germination response at each sampling date was similar regardless of seed source, but differed for the 2000 to 2002 and 2002 to 2004 experiments. Laboratory germination of seeds buried was initially high (98%) and declined rapidly to about 20% by midwinter. Germination increased to about 60% during the second summer, followed by a slow decline to 40% during winter and another rapid decline before the third summer. The rapid declines in germination were preceded by low soil temperatures (<5 C) and the germination peaks corresponded with periods of high soil temperatures (∼ 20 C). Results suggested that common groundsel follows a cycle of dormancy and nondormancy corresponding to decreases and increases, respectively, in soil temperature. During 2 yr of deep burial in undisturbed soil, 94% of the seeds germinated or died, suggesting that common groundsel seeds may not persist more than a few months in regularly disturbed soils.
Studies were conducted in 1998 and 1999 in Ohio to determine the effect of postemergence (POST) application timing of glyphosate on weed control and grain yield in glyphosate-tolerant corn, and how this was influenced by corn planting date and the use of soil-applied herbicides. Glyphosate was applied based on giant foxtail height. Two applications of glyphosate provided better weed control than a single application, especially when applied to weeds 10 cm or less in early-planted corn. Yield was reduced occasionally with a single application on 5- or 10-cm weeds, because of weed re-infestation. Failure to control weeds before they reached a height of 15 to 30 cm also resulted in occasional yield loss. Application of atrazine or acetochlor plus atrazine prior to glyphosate did not consistently increase weed control or yield. Results suggested that glyphosate should be applied before weeds reach 15 cm in height to avoid corn grain yield loss.
Field studies were conducted at 35 sites throughout the north-central United States in 1998 and 1999 to determine the effect of postemergence glyphosate application timing on weed control and grain yield in glyphosate-resistant corn. Glyphosate was applied at various timings based on the height of the most dominant weed species. Weed control and corn grain yields were considerably more variable when glyphosate was applied only once. The most effective and consistent season-long annual grass and broadleaf weed control occurred when a single glyphosate application was delayed until weeds were 15 cm or taller. Two glyphosate applications provided more consistent weed control when weeds were 10 cm tall or less and higher corn grain yields when weeds were 5 cm tall or less, compared with a single application. Weed control averaged at least 94 and 97% across all sites in 1998 and 1999, respectively, with two glyphosate applications but was occasionally less than 70% because of late emergence of annual grass and Amaranthus spp. or reduced control of Ipomoea spp. With a single application of glyphosate, corn grain yield was most often reduced when the application was delayed until weeds were 23 cm or taller. Averaged across all sites in 1998 and 1999, corn grain yields from a single glyphosate application at the 5-, 10-, 15-, 23-, and 30-cm timings were 93, 94, 93, 91, and 79% of the weed-free control, respectively. There was a significant effect of herbicide treatment on corn grain yield in 23 of the 35 sites when weed reinfestation was prevented with a second glyphosate application. When weed reinfestation was prevented, corn grain yield at the 5-, 10-, and 15-cm application timings was 101, 97, and 93% of the weed-free control, respectively, averaged across all sites. Results of this study suggested that the optimum timing for initial glyphosate application to avoid corn grain yield loss was when weeds were less than 10 cm in height, no more than 23 d after corn planting, and when corn growth was not more advanced than the V4 stage.
Giant ragweed has been increasing as a major weed of row crops in the last
30 yr, but quantitative data regarding its pattern and mechanisms of spread
in crop fields are lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a Web-based
survey of certified crop advisors in the U.S. Corn Belt and Ontario, Canada.
Participants were asked questions regarding giant ragweed and crop
production practices for the county of their choice. Responses were mapped
and correlation analyses were conducted among the responses to determine
factors associated with giant ragweed populations. Respondents rated giant
ragweed as the most or one of the most difficult weeds to manage in 45% of
421 U.S. counties responding, and 57% of responding counties reported giant
ragweed populations with herbicide resistance to acetolactate synthase
inhibitors, glyphosate, or both herbicides. Results suggest that giant
ragweed is increasing in crop fields outward from the east-central U.S. Corn
Belt in most directions. Crop production practices associated with giant
ragweed populations included minimum tillage, continuous soybean, and
multiple-application herbicide programs; ecological factors included giant
ragweed presence in noncrop edge habitats, early and prolonged emergence,
and presence of the seed-burying common earthworm in crop fields. Managing
giant ragweed in noncrop areas could reduce giant ragweed migration from
noncrop habitats into crop fields and slow its spread. Where giant ragweed
is already established in crop fields, including a more diverse combination
of crop species, tillage practices, and herbicide sites of action will be
critical to reduce populations, disrupt emergence patterns, and select
against herbicide-resistant giant ragweed genotypes. Incorporation of a
cereal grain into the crop rotation may help suppress early giant ragweed
emergence and provide chemical or mechanical control options for
late-emerging giant ragweed.
As with many islands, Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean has suffered severe biodiversity loss. Its terrestrial lizard fauna comprised five native species, of which four were endemic. These were abundant until at least the late 1970s, but four species declined rapidly thereafter and were last reported in the wild between 2009 and 2013. In response to the decline, a captive breeding programme was established in August 2009. This attempt came too late for the Christmas Island forest skink Emoia nativitatis, whose last known individual died in captivity in 2014, and for the non-endemic coastal skink Emoia atrocostata. However, two captive populations are now established for Lister's gecko Lepidodactylus listeri and the blue-tailed skink Cryptoblepharus egeriae. The conservation future for these two species is challenging: reintroduction will not be possible until the main threats are identified and controlled.
We present the results of two 2.3 μm near-infrared (NIR) radial velocity (RV) surveys to detect exoplanets around 36 nearby and young M dwarfs. We use the CSHELL spectrograph (R ~ 46,000) at the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF), combined with an isotopic methane absorption gas cell for common optical path relative wavelength calibration. We have developed a sophisticated RV forward modeling code that accounts for fringing and other instrumental artifacts present in the spectra. With a spectral grasp of only 5 nm, we are able to reach long-term radial velocity dispersions of ~20–30 m s−1 on our survey targets.