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Biases in cognition such as Jumping to Conclusions (JTC) and Verbal Self-Monitoring (VSM) are thought to underlie the formation of psychotic symptoms. This prospective study in people with an At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for psychosis examined how these cognitive biases changed over time, and predicted clinical and functional outcomes. Twenty-three participants were assessed at clinical presentation and a mean of 31 months later. Performance on a JTC and VSM tasks were measured at both time points. Relationships to symptom severity, level of function and the incidence of psychotic disorder were then examined. The levels of symptoms, function and VSM all improved over time, while JTC was stable. Five participants (22%) developed a psychotic disorder during the follow-up period, but the risk of transition was not related to performance on either task at baseline, or to longitudinal changes in task performance. JTC performance correlated with symptom severity at baseline and follow-up. Similarly, performance on the two tasks was not related to the level of functioning at follow-up. Thus, while the ARMS is associated with both VSM and JTC biases, neither predict the onset of psychosis or the overall functional outcome.
UK Biobank is a well-characterised cohort of over 500 000 participants including genetics, environmental data and imaging. An online mental health questionnaire was designed for UK Biobank participants to expand its potential.
Describe the development, implementation and results of this questionnaire.
An expert working group designed the questionnaire, using established measures where possible, and consulting a patient group. Operational criteria were agreed for defining likely disorder and risk states, including lifetime depression, mania/hypomania, generalised anxiety disorder, unusual experiences and self-harm, and current post-traumatic stress and hazardous/harmful alcohol use.
A total of 157 366 completed online questionnaires were available by August 2017. Participants were aged 45–82 (53% were ≥65 years) and 57% women. Comparison of self-reported diagnosed mental disorder with a contemporary study shows a similar prevalence, despite respondents being of higher average socioeconomic status. Lifetime depression was a common finding, with 24% (37 434) of participants meeting criteria and current hazardous/harmful alcohol use criteria were met by 21% (32 602), whereas other criteria were met by less than 8% of the participants. There was extensive comorbidity among the syndromes. Mental disorders were associated with a high neuroticism score, adverse life events and long-term illness; addiction and bipolar affective disorder in particular were associated with measures of deprivation.
The UK Biobank questionnaire represents a very large mental health survey in itself, and the results presented here show high face validity, although caution is needed because of selection bias. Built into UK Biobank, these data intersect with other health data to offer unparalleled potential for crosscutting biomedical research involving mental health.
Although widely used in cardiology, relation of heart failure biomarkers to cardiac haemodynamics in patients with CHD (and in particular with pulmonary insufficiency undergoing pulmonary valve replacement) remains unclear. We hypothesised that the cardiac function biomarkers N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity 2, and galectin-3 would have significant associations to right ventricular haemodynamic derangements.
Consecutive patients ( n = 16) undergoing cardiac catheterisation for transcatheter pulmonary valve replacement were studied. NT-proBNP, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity 2, and galectin-3 levels were measured using a multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from a pre-intervention blood sample obtained after sheath placement. Spearman correlation was used to identify significant correlations (p ≤ 0.05) of biomarkers with baseline cardiac haemodynamics. Cardiac MRI data (indexed right ventricular and left ventricular end-diastolic volumes and ejection fraction) prior to device placement were also compared to biomarker levels.
NT-proBNP and soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity 2 were significantly correlated (p < 0.01) with baseline mean right atrial pressure and right ventricular end-diastolic pressure. Only NT-proBNP was significantly correlated with age. Galectin-3 did not have significant associations in this cohort. Cardiac MRI measures of right ventricular function and volume were not correlated to biomarker levels or right heart haemodynamics.
NT-proBNP and soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity 2, biomarkers of myocardial strain, significantly correlated to invasive pressure haemodynamics in transcatheter pulmonary valve replacement patients. Serial determination of soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity 2, as it was not associated with age, may be superior to serial measurement of NT-proBNP as an indicator for timing of pulmonary valve replacement.
Complex challenges may arise when patients present to emergency services with an advance decision to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour.
To investigate the use of advance decisions to refuse treatment in the context of suicidal behaviour from the perspective of clinicians and people with lived experience of self-harm and/or psychiatric services.
Forty-one participants aged 18 or over from hospital services (emergency departments, liaison psychiatry and ambulance services) and groups of individuals with experience of psychiatric services and/or self-harm were recruited to six focus groups in a multisite study in England. Data were collected in 2016 using a structured topic guide and included a fictional vignette. They were analysed using thematic framework analysis.
Advance decisions to refuse treatment for suicidal behaviour were contentious across groups. Three main themes emerged from the data: (a) they may enhance patient autonomy and aid clarity in acute emergencies, but also create legal and ethical uncertainty over treatment following self-harm; (b) they are anxiety provoking for clinicians; and (c) in practice, there are challenges in validation (for example, validating the patient’s mental capacity at the time of writing), time constraints and significant legal/ethical complexities.
The potential for patients to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour in a legal document was challenging and anxiety provoking for participants. Clinicians should act with caution given the potential for recovery and fluctuations in suicidal ideation. Currently, advance decisions to refuse treatment have questionable use in the context of suicidal behaviour given the challenges in validation. Discussion and further patient research are needed in this area.
Declaration of interest
D.G., K.H. and N.K. are members of the Department of Health's (England) National Suicide Prevention Advisory Group. N.K. chaired the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development group for the longer-term management of self-harm and the NICE Topic Expert Group (which developed the quality standards for self-harm services). He is currently chair of the updated NICE guideline for Depression. K.H. and D.G. are NIHR Senior Investigators. K.H. is also supported by the Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust and N.K. by the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust.
Objectives: This report examined theta-band neurodynamics for potential biomarkers of brain health in athletes with concussion. Methods: Participants included college-age contact/collision athletes with (N=24) and without a history of concussion (N=16) in Study 1. Study 2 (N=10) examined changes over time in contact/collision athletes. There were two primary dependent variables: (1) theta-band phase-synchronization (e.g., functional connectivity) between medial and right-lateral electrodes; and (2) the within-subject correlation between synchronization strength on error trials and post-error reaction time (i.e., operationalization of cognitive control). Results: Head injury history was inversely related with medial-lateral connectivity. Head injury was also related to declines in a neurobehavioral measure of cognitive control (i.e., the single-trial relationship between connectivity and post-error slowing). Conclusions: Results align with a theory of connectivity-mediated cognitive control. Mild injuries undetectable by behavioral measures may still be apparent on direct measures of neural functioning. This report demonstrates that connectivity and cognitive control measures may be useful for tracking recovery from concussion. Theoretically relevant neuroscientific findings in healthy adults may have applications in patient populations, especially with regard to monitoring brain health. (JINS 2019, 25, 314–323)
What impact do local candidates have on elections in single member district plurality electoral systems? We provide new evidence using data from a large election study carried out during the 2015 Canadian federal election. We improve on the measurement of local candidate effects by asking over 20,000 survey respondents to rate the candidates in their constituency directly. We present three estimates. We find that when all voters are considered together, local candidate evaluations are decisive for approximately 4 per cent of voters. Second, these evaluations are decisive for the outcome of 10 per cent of constituency contests. Third, when models are estimated for each constituency, we find significant evaluation effects for 14 per cent of candidates.
To determine whether probiotic prophylaxes reduce the odds of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in adults and children.
Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), adjusting for risk factors.
We searched 6 databases and 11 grey literature sources from inception to April 2016. We identified 32 RCTs (n=8,713); among them, 18 RCTs provided IPD (n=6,851 participants) comparing probiotic prophylaxis to placebo or no treatment (standard care). One reviewer prepared the IPD, and 2 reviewers extracted data, rated study quality, and graded evidence quality.
Probiotics reduced CDI odds in the unadjusted model (n=6,645; odds ratio [OR] 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25–0.55) and the adjusted model (n=5,074; OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23–0.55). Using 2 or more antibiotics increased the odds of CDI (OR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.11–4.37), whereas age, sex, hospitalization status, and high-risk antibiotic exposure did not. Adjusted subgroup analyses suggested that, compared to no probiotics, multispecies probiotics were more beneficial than single-species probiotics, as was using probiotics in clinical settings where the CDI risk is ≥5%. Of 18 studies, 14 reported adverse events. In 11 of these 14 studies, the adverse events were retained in the adjusted model. Odds for serious adverse events were similar for both groups in the unadjusted analyses (n=4,990; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89–1.26) and adjusted analyses (n=4,718; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89–1.28). Missing outcome data for CDI ranged from 0% to 25.8%. Our analyses were robust to a sensitivity analysis for missingness.
Moderate quality (ie, certainty) evidence suggests that probiotic prophylaxis may be a useful and safe CDI prevention strategy, particularly among participants taking 2 or more antibiotics and in hospital settings where the risk of CDI is ≥5%.
UK Biobank is a well-characterised cohort of over 500 000 participants that offers unique opportunities to investigate multiple diseases and risk factors.
An online mental health questionnaire completed by UK Biobank participants was expected to expand the potential for research into mental disorders.
An expert working group designed the questionnaire, using established measures where possible, and consulting with a patient group regarding acceptability. Case definitions were defined using operational criteria for lifetime depression, mania, anxiety disorder, psychotic-like experiences and self-harm, as well as current post-traumatic stress and alcohol use disorders.
157 366 completed online questionnaires were available by August 2017. Comparison of self-reported diagnosed mental disorder with a contemporary study shows a similar prevalence, despite respondents being of higher average socioeconomic status than the general population across a range of indicators. Thirty-five per cent (55 750) of participants had at least one defined syndrome, of which lifetime depression was the most common at 24% (37 434). There was extensive comorbidity among the syndromes. Mental disorders were associated with high neuroticism score, adverse life events and long-term illness; addiction and bipolar affective disorder in particular were associated with measures of deprivation.
The questionnaire represents a very large mental health survey in itself, and the results presented here show high face validity, although caution is needed owing to selection bias. Built into UK Biobank, these data intersect with other health data to offer unparalleled potential for crosscutting biomedical research involving mental health.
Declaration of interest
G.B. received grants from the National Institute for Health Research during the study; and support from Illumina Ltd. and the European Commission outside the submitted work. B.C. received grants from the Scottish Executive Chief Scientist Office and from The Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation during the study. C.S. received grants from the Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust during the study, and is the Chief Scientist for UK Biobank. M.H. received grants from the Innovative Medicines Initiative via the RADAR-CNS programme and personal fees as an expert witness outside the submitted work.
While a large literature suggests an important role for political parties in development, this article is the first attempt to layout and test a comprehensive theory connecting parties to economic growth. The authors argue that strong parties broaden the constituencies to which policymakers respond and help politicians solve coordination problems. These features help to ensure better economic management, public services, and political stability. And this, in turn, enhances economic growth. Drawing on a novel measure of party strength from the Varieties of Democracy data set, the authors test this theory on data drawn from more than 150 countries observed annually from 1901–2010. They identify a sizeable effect that is robust to various specifications, estimators, and samples. The effect operates in both democracies and autocracies, and is fairly stable across regions and time periods.
Credibility and trustworthiness are the bedrock upon which any science is built. The strength of these foundations has been increasingly questioned across the sciences as instances of research misconduct and mounting concerns over the prevalence of detrimental research practices have been identified. Consequently, the purpose of this article is to encourage our scientific community to positively and proactively engage in efforts that foster a healthy and robust industrial and organizational (I-O) psychology. We begin by advancing six defining principles that we believe reflect the values of robust science and offer criteria for evaluating proposed efforts to change scientific practices. Recognizing that the contemporary scientific enterprise is a complex and diverse network of actors and institutions, we then conclude by identifying 12 stakeholders who play important roles in achieving a culture of robust science in I-O psychology and offer recommendations for actions we can take as members of these groups to strengthen our science.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of liver disease in the United States and increases risk for cirrhosis and liver cancer. Identifying modifiable risk factors for NAFLD could allow better targeting of prevention programs. Insulin resistance (IR) plays a significant role in the development and progression of NAFLD. IR is also an important precursor to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). However, the development and duration of IR during young adulthood and its association with NAFLD and T2DM in midlife is unclear. To test whether trajectories of IR using homeostatic model assessment (HOMA-IR) change throughout early adulthood are associated with risk of prevalent NAFLD and T2DM among persons with NAFLD in midlife independent of current or baseline HOMA-IR. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Participants from the CARDIA study, a prospective multicenter population-based biracial cohort of adults (baseline age 18–30 years), underwent HOMA-IR measurement (≥8 h fasting and not pregnant) at baseline (1985–1986) and follow-up exam years 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25. At Year 25 (Y25, 2010–2011), liver fat was assessed by noncontrast computed tomography (CT). NAFLD was defined as CT liver attenuation <51 Hounsfield Units after exclusion of other causes of liver fat (alcohol/hepatitis/medications). Latent mixture modeling was used to identify 25-year trajectories in HOMA-IR over time. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess associations between HOMA-IR trajectory groups and prevalent NAFLD with adjustment for baseline or Y25 HOMA-IR. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Among 3060 participants, we identified 3 distinct trajectory groups for HOMA-IR for individuals free from diabetes in middle adulthood: qualitatively low-stable (46.7% of the cohort), moderate-increasing (42.0%), and high-increasing (11.3%) with a NAFLD prevalence at Y25 of: 8.3%, 33.4%, and 63.5%, respectively (p-trend<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders (baseline smoking status, alcohol use, body mass index, physical activity score, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, and total/HDL cholesterol ratio) and baseline HOMA-IR, increasing HOMA-IR trajectories were associated with greater NAFLD prevalence compared with the low-stable trajectory group [odds ratio (95% CI): 5.8 (4.3–7.9) and 22.3 (14.2–34.9) for moderate and high, respectively]. These associations were attenuated, but remained significant, even after controlling for current Y25 HOMA-IR [OR=3.6 (2.6–5.0) for moderate and 5.9 (3.4–10.3) for high (referent: low)]. Among participants with NAFLD (n=511), high-increasing HOMA-IR trajectory was associated with greater prevalent [OR=6.5 (1.6–25.7)] and incident [OR=8.7 (2.2–34.4)] T2DM at Y25 independent of confounders and Y25 HOMA-IR (referent: low-stable). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: In this community-based sample of individuals free from diabetes at baseline, an increasing HOMA-IR trajectory through young adulthood was associated with greater NAFLD prevalence in midlife. Knowledge of changes in IR throughout adulthood provides new information on the risk of T2DM among persons with NAFLD in midlife independent of current level of IR. These findings highlight early identification of increasing IR as a potential target for primary prevention of T2DM in the setting of NAFLD.
Echocardiography has been proposed as a method to screen children for rheumatic heart disease. The World Heart Federation has established guidelines for echocardiographic screening. In this study, we describe a rapid echocardiogram screening protocol according to the World Heart Federation guidelines in Samoa, endemic for rheumatic heart disease.
We performed echocardiogram screening in schoolchildren in Samoa between 2013 and 2015. A brief screening echocardiogram was performed on all students. Children with predefined criteria suspicious for rheumatic hear diseases were referred for a more comprehensive echocardiogram. Complete echocardiograms were classified according to the World Heart Federation guidelines and severity of valve disease.
Echocardiographic screening was performed on 11,434 children, with a mean age of 10.2 years; 51% of them were females. A total of 558 (4.8%) children underwent comprehensive echocardiography, including 49 students who were randomly selected as controls. Definite rheumatic heart disease was observed in 115 students (10.0 per 1000): 92 students were classified as borderline (8.0 per 1000) and 23 with CHD. Advanced disease was identified in 50 students (4.4 per 1000): 15 with severe mitral regurgitation, five with severe aortic regurgitation, 11 with mitral stenoses, and 19 with mitral and aortic valve disease.
We successfully applied a rapid echocardiographic screening protocol to a large number of students over a short time period – 28 days of screening over a 3-year time period – to identify a high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease. We also reported a significantly higher rate of advanced disease compared with previously published echocardiographic screening programmes.
The time required to obtain Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval is a frequent subject of efforts to reduce unnecessary delays in initiating clinical trials. This study was conducted by and for IRB directors to better understand factors affecting approval times as a first step in developing a quality improvement framework.
807 IRB-approved clinical trials from 5 University of California campuses were analyzed to identify operational and clinical trial characteristics influencing IRB approval times.
High workloads, low staff ratios, limited training, and the number and types of ancillary reviews resulted in longer approval times. Biosafety reviews and the need for billing coverage analysis were ancillary reviews that contributed to the longest delays. Federally funded and multisite clinical trials had shorter approval times. Variability in between individual committees at each institution reviewing phase 3 multisite clinical trials also contributed to delays for some protocols. Accreditation was not associated with shorter approval times.
Reducing unnecessary delays in obtaining IRB approval will require a quality improvement framework that considers operational and study characteristics as well as the larger institutional regulatory environment.
There is debate about the relative importance of timing of stressful events prenatally and over the life course and risk for subsequent depressive/anxious illness. The aim of this study was to examine the relative roles of prenatal stress and postnatal stress trajectories in predicting depression and anxiety in early adulthood in males and females. Exposure to life stress events was examined in the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study during pregnancy and ages 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 14, and 17 years. At age 20, offspring completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. Prenatal stress and trajectories of stress events from age 1 to 17 were analyzed in linear regression analyses. Five postnatal stress trajectories were identified. In females, medium to high chronic stress exposure or exposure during puberty/adolescence predicted depression and anxiety symptoms while low or reduced stress exposure over the life course did not, after adjustment for relevant confounders. High stress early in pregnancy contributed to male depression/anxiety symptoms independent of postnatal stress trajectory. In females, postnatal stress trajectory was more important than prenatal stress in predicting depression/anxiety symptoms. Interventions focused on reducing and managing stress events around conception/pregnancy and exposure to chronic stress are likely to have beneficial outcomes on rates of depression and anxiety in adults.
North Leigh Roman villa ranks as one of the largest known courtyard villas of Roman Britain.1 Situated just above the floodplain of the river Evenlode, which loops around the site, the villa lies c. 2 miles north of North Leigh village and 10 miles west of Oxford (SP 397 154). The building developed within the Late Iron Age earthwork complex of the North Oxfordshire Grim's Ditch, a discontinuous bank and ditch which partly encloses a 22-square mile area of this landscape.2 The villa is under English Heritage guardianship (Scheduled Ancient Monument no. 334573) and a programme of geophysical survey was conducted at their request to assist in management of the site.3
Feral swine Sus scrofa have been implicated as a major threat to sensitive habitats and ecosystems as well as threatened wildlife. Nevertheless, direct and indirect impacts on threatened species (especially small, fossorial species) are not well documented. The decline of the U.S. federally endangered reticulated flatwoods salamander Ambystoma bishopi, categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, has been rapid and there are few remaining breeding locations for this species. The flatwoods salamander depends on complex herbaceous vegetation in all life stages, including eggs, larvae and adults. Historically sets of hog tracks have been observed only occasionally in the vicinity of monitored reticulated flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands, and damage to the wetlands had never been recorded. However, during the autumn–winter breeding season of 2013–2014 we observed a large increase in hog sign, including extensive rooting damage, in known flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands. Our objective was to assess the amount of hog sign and damage in these wetlands and to take corrective management actions to curb additional impacts. Of 28 wetlands surveyed for hog sign, presence was recorded at 68%, and damage at 54%. Of the 11 sites known to be occupied by flatwoods salamanders in 2013–2014, 64% had presence, and 55% had damage. We found that regular monitoring of disturbance in wetland habitats was a valuable tool to determine when intervention was needed and to assess the effectiveness of intervention. Habitat damage caused by feral hogs poses a potentially serious threat to the salamanders, which needs to be mitigated using methods to control and exclude hogs from this sensitive habitat.