The Promontory caves (Utah) and Franktown Cave (Colorado) contain high-fidelity records of short-term occupations by groups with material culture connections to the Subarctic/Northern Plains. This research uses Promontory and Franktown bison dung, hair, hide, and bone collagen to establish local baseline carbon isotopic variability and identify leather from a distant source. The ankle wrap of one Promontory Cave 1 moccasin had a δ13C value that indicates a substantial C4 component to the animal's diet, unlike the C3 diets inferred from 171 other Promontory and northern Utah bison samples. We draw on a unique combination of multitissue isotopic analysis, carbon isoscapes, ancient DNA (species and sex identification), tissue turnover rates, archaeological contexts, and bison ecology to show that the high δ13C value was not likely a result of local plant consumption, bison mobility, or trade. Instead, the bison hide was likely acquired via long-distance travel to/from an area of abundant C4 grasses far to the south or east. Expansive landscape knowledge gained through long-distance associations would have allowed Promontory caves inhabitants to make well-informed decisions about directions and routes of movement for a territorial shift, which seems to have occurred in the late thirteenth century.

Measles is a target for elimination in all six WHO regions by 2020, and over the last decade, there has been considerable progress towards this goal. Surveillance is recognised as a cornerstone of elimination programmes, allowing early identification of outbreaks, thus enabling control and preventing re-emergence. Fever–rash surveillance is increasingly available across WHO regions, and this symptom-based reporting is broadly used for measles surveillance. However, as measles control increases, symptom-based cases are increasingly likely to reflect infection with other diseases with similar symptoms such as rubella, which affects the same populations, and can have a similar seasonality. The WHO recommends that cases from suspected measles outbreaks be laboratory-confirmed, to identify ‘true’ cases, corresponding to measles IgM titres exceeding a threshold indicative of infection. Although serological testing for IgM has been integrated into the fever–rash surveillance systems in many countries, the logistics of sending in every suspected case are often beyond the health system's capacity. We show how age data from serologically confirmed cases can be leveraged to infer the status of non-tested samples, thus strengthening the information we can extract from symptom-based surveillance. Applying an age-specific confirmation model to data from three countries with divergent epidemiology across Africa, we identify the proportion of cases that need to be serologically tested to achieve target levels of accuracy in estimated infected numbers and discuss how this varies depending on the epidemiological context. Our analysis provides an approach to refining estimates of incidence leveraging all available data, which has the potential to improve allocation of resources, and thus contribute to rapid and efficient control of outbreaks.

Although measles incidence has reached historic lows in many parts of the world, the disease still causes substantial morbidity globally. Even where control programs have succeeded in driving measles locally extinct, unless vaccination coverage is maintained at extremely high levels, susceptible numbers may increase sufficiently to spark large outbreaks. Human mobility will drive potentially infectious contacts and interact with the landscape of susceptibility to determine the pattern of measles outbreaks. These interactions have proved difficult to characterise empirically. We explore the degree to which new sources of data combined with existing public health data can be used to evaluate the landscape of immunity and the role of spatial movement for measles introductions by retrospectively evaluating our ability to predict measles outbreaks in vaccinated populations. Using inferred spatial patterns of accumulation of susceptible individuals and travel data, we predicted the timing of epidemics in each district of Pakistan during a large measles outbreak in 2012–2013 with over 30 000 reported cases. We combined these data with mobility data extracted from over 40 million mobile phone subscribers during the same time frame in the country to quantify the role of connectivity in the spread of measles. We investigate how different approaches could contribute to targeting vaccination efforts to reach districts before outbreaks started. While some prediction was possible, accuracy was low and we discuss key uncertainties linked to existing data streams that impede such inference and detail what data might be necessary to robustly infer timing of epidemics.

Mammoth (Mammuthus sp.) teeth are relatively abundant in Quaternary deposits from Eurasia and North America, and their isotopic compositions can be used to reconstruct past seasonal patterns in precipitation, diet, and migration. Strategies for collecting and interpreting such data, however, are strongly dependent on growth rates, which can vary among species, individuals, and within teeth. In this study, we use histological and isotopic measurements to determine enamel growth rates for a Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) tooth in two directions. Using histology, the growth rate through the enamel thickness (ET; perpendicular to the height of the tooth) is estimated at 0.8 to 1.5 mm/yr. Isotopic sampling through the innermost 0.36 mm of the ET recovered less than half a period of variation (i.e., half an inferred year of growth), which is consistent with the histological estimate for ET growth rate. A combination of histological and isotopic measurements suggests that the enamel extension rate (growth in the height of the tooth) is 13–14 mm/yr. Knowledge of enamel growth rates should improve the design and interpretation of future isotopic studies of mammoth teeth. The combination of histological and isotopic measurements may also prove useful in determining growth rates for other extinct taxa.

We investigate seasonal variations in the diet and drinking water of four Great Lakes mastodon (Mammut americanum) specimens using stable isotope analysis of serially sampled inner-enamel bioapatite structural carbonate (δ13Csc, δ18Osc), and previously published bulk analyses. Isotopic analyses and thin section measurements showed that mastodon tooth enamel extension rates (~ 12–4 mm/yr, decreasing toward the cervix) were lower than those of mammoths or modern elephants. Mastodons had distinct and highly regular seasonal variations in δ13Csc and δ18Osc, which we interpret in the context of local glacial history and vegetation changes. Seasonal variations in δ18O were large but variations in δ13C were small, and may have been obscured if coarser sampling methods than our inner-enamel sampling approach were used. Thus, our approach may be particularly useful for understanding relatively small seasonal changes in δ13C within C3 environments. The seasonal patterns, though not entirely conclusive, suggest that the Ontario mastodons did not migrate over very long distances. Rather, the climate and seasonal dietary patterns of mastodons within the region changed over time, from ~ 12,400 to 10,400 14C yr BP (~ 15,000 – 12,000 cal yr BP). Insights gained using these methods can contribute to a better understanding of megafaunal extinctions and Paleoamerican lifeways.

There is a paucity of data on the effect of preterm birth on the immunological composition of breast milk throughout the different stages of lactation. We aimed to characterise the effects of preterm birth on the levels of immune factors in milk during the 1st month postpartum, to determine whether preterm milk is deficient in antimicrobial factors. Colostrum (days 2–5 postpartum), transitional milk (days 8–12) and mature milk (days 26–30) were collected from mothers of extremely preterm (<28 weeks of gestation, n 15), very preterm (28–<32 weeks of gestation, n 15), moderately preterm (32–<37 weeks of gestation, n 15) and term infants (37–41 weeks of gestation, n 15). Total protein, lactoferrin, secretory IgA, soluble CD14 receptor (sCD14), transforming growth factor-β2 (TGF-β2), α defensin 5 (HD5), β defensins 1 (HBD1) and 2, IL-6, IL-10, IL-13, interferon-γ, TNF-α and lysozyme (LZ) were quantified in milk. We examined the effects of lactation stage, gestational age, volume of milk expressed, mode of delivery, parity and maternal infection on milk immune factor concentrations using repeated-measures regression analysis. The concentrations of all factors except LZ and HD5 decreased over the 1st month postpartum. Extremely preterm mothers had significantly higher concentrations of HBD1 and TGF-β2 in colostrum than term mothers did. After controlling for other variables in regression analyses, preterm birth was associated with higher concentrations of HBD1, LZ and sCD14 in milk samples. In conclusion, preterm breast milk contains significantly higher concentrations of some immune proteins than term breast milk.

The stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values (δ13C, δ15N) of collagen and the carbon isotope value of structural carbonate in bioapatite were measured in the bones and teeth of Early Classic to Historic period Maya buried at Chau Hiix, Belize. Diet at Chau Hiix comprised a mixture of resources but contained an unusual amount of protein from high trophic levels. There were no differences between the diets of males and females, and there were no consistent changes in diet from birth to age 12. However, children consumed more maize than adults during all time periods. Similarities in general diet and temporal changes at Chau Hiix, Lamanai, and Altun Ha suggest their participation in a regional socioeconomic system. The diets of the highest-status Early Classic individuals at Chau Hiix, Lamanai, and Altun Ha were different from one another and from those of other individuals buried at their respective sites. We suggest that elites created or attempted to create hierarchies of food consumption within sites during the Classic period and that a heterarchy existed among elites from different sites. During the Postclassic period the major protein component of the Chau Hiix diet shifted from terrestrial animal and/or freshwater resources to reef resources, which suggests increased associations with coastal sites. Temporal changes in diet at Chau Hiix closely paralleled changes at Lamanai, but diets at the two sites were distinct during all time periods.

Estimation of tree growth is generally based on repeated diameter measurements. A buttress at the height of measurement will lead to overestimates of tree diameter. Because buttresses grow up the trunk through time, it has become common practice to increase the height of measurement, to ensure that measurements remain above the buttress. However, tapering of the trunk means that increasing measurement height will bias estimates of diameter downward by up to 10% per m of height. This bias could affect inference concerning species differences and climate effects on tree demography and on biomass accumulation. Here we introduce a hierarchical state space method that allows formal integration of data on diameter taken at different heights and can include individual variation, temporal effects or other covariates. We illustrate our approach using species from Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and La Selva, Costa Rica. Results include trends that are consistent with some of those previously reported for climate responses and changes over time, but differ in relative magnitude. By including the full data-set and accounting for bias and variation among individuals and over time, our approach allows for quantification of climate responses and the uncertainty associated with measurements and the underlying growth process.

The coast of north-west Madagascar is an important nesting and feeding ground for marine turtles, but little is known about populations in this area. From July to December 2000 we documented nesting activity of, and investigated threats to, green Chelonia mydas and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles at three sites along this coast: Nosy Iranja, the Radama Islands, and the Nosy Hara archipelago. Levels of nesting activity varied between sites, with green and hawksbill turtle nesting concentrated in different areas. The principal threats identified were opportunistic exploitation of nesting females and incidental capture in fishing nets. Commercial importance of marine turtles was negligible, suggesting conservation measures such as targeted environmental education could have beneficial impacts on these populations. Evidence for high levels of nesting activity reported here indicate that education efforts in these areas should be a conservation priority.