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Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools used to develop continuous predictions of species occurrence. ‘Integrated SDMs’ (ISDMs) are an elaboration of this approach with potential advantages that allow for the dual use of opportunistically collected presence-only data and site-occupancy data from planned surveys. These models also account for survey bias and imperfect detection through the use of a hierarchical modelling framework that separately estimates the species–environment response and detection process. This is particularly helpful for conservation applications and predictions for rare species, where data are often limited and prediction errors may have significant management consequences. Despite this potential importance, ISDMs remain largely untested under a variety of scenarios. We performed an exploration of key modelling decisions and assumptions on an ISDM using the endangered Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) as a test species. We found that site area had the strongest effect on the magnitude of population estimates and underlying intensity surface and was driven by estimates of model intercepts. Selecting a site area that accounted for the individual movements of the species within an average home range led to population estimates that coincided with expert estimates. ISDMs that do not account for the individual movements of species will likely lead to less accurate estimates of species intensity (number of individuals per unit area) and thus overall population estimates. This bias could be severe and highly detrimental to conservation actions if uninformed ISDMs are used to estimate global populations of threatened and data-deficient species, particularly those that lack natural history and movement information. However, the ISDM was consistently the most accurate model compared to other approaches, which demonstrates the importance of this new modelling framework and the ability to combine opportunistic data with systematic survey data. Thus, we recommend researchers use ISDMs with conservative movement information when estimating population sizes of rare and data-deficient species. ISDMs could be improved by using a similar parameterization to spatial capture–recapture models that explicitly incorporate animal movement as a model parameter, which would further remove the need for spatial subsampling prior to implementation.
Objective: Few studies have investigated the assessment and functional impact of egocentric and allocentric neglect among stroke patients. This pilot study aimed to determine (1) whether allocentric and egocentric neglect could be dissociated among a sample of stroke patients using eye tracking; (2) the specific patterns of attention associated with each subtype; and (3) the nature of the relationship between neglect subtype and functional outcome. Method: Twenty acute stroke patients were administered neuropsychological assessment batteries, a pencil-and-paper Apples Test to measure neglect subtype, and an adaptation of the Apples Test with an eye tracking measure. To test clinical discriminability, twenty age- and education-matched control participants were administered the eye tracking measure of neglect. Results: The eye tracking measure identified a greater number of individuals as having egocentric and/or allocentric neglect than the pencil-and-paper Apples Test. Classification of neglect subtype based on eye tracking performance was a significant predictor of functional outcome beyond that accounted for by the neuropsychological test performance and Apples Test neglect classification. Preliminary evidence suggests that patients with no neglect symptoms had superior functional outcomes compared with patients with neglect. Patients with combined egocentric and allocentric neglect had poorer functional outcomes than those with either subtype. Functional outcomes of patients with either allocentric or egocentric neglect did not differ significantly. The applications of our findings, to improve neglect detection, are discussed. Conclusion: Results highlight the potential clinical utility of eye tracking for the assessment and identification of neglect subtype among stroke patients to predict functional outcomes. (JINS, 2019, 25, 479–489)
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To evaluate the ability of various techniques to track changes in body fluid volumes before and after a rapid infusion of saline. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Eight healthy participants (5M; 3F) completed baseline measurements of 1) total body water using ethanol dilution and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and 2) blood volume, plasma volume and red blood cell (RBC) volume using carbon monoxide rebreathe technique and I-131 albumin dilution. Subsequently, 30mL saline/kg body weight was administered intravenously over 20 minutes after which BIA and ethanol dilution were repeated. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: On average, 2.29±0.35 L saline was infused with an average increase in net fluid input-output (I/O) of 1.56±0.29 L. BIA underestimated measured I/O by −3.4±7.9%, while ethanol dilution did not demonstrate a measurable change in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe differed from I-131 albumin dilution measurements of blood, plasma and RBC volumes by +0.6±2.8%, −5.4±3.6%, and +11.0±4.7%, respectively. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: BIA is capable of tracking modest changes in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe appears to be a viable alternative for the I-131 albumin dilution technique to determine blood volume. Together, these two techniques may be useful in monitoring fluid status in patients with impaired fluid regulation.
Understanding factors that are associated with more adaptive death attitudes and competencies can inspire future health-promoting palliative care strategies and inform approaches to training and development for health professionals. The potential importance of meaning, purpose, quality, and values in life for promoting adaptive death attitudes has been highlighted, but there is limited research in this area, particularly in relation to death competence. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to develop an understanding of demographic and life-related factors associated with perceived death competence, such as meaning in life and quality of life.
During the course enrollment period of a Massive-Online-Open-Course about death and dying, 277 participants completed questionnaires on death competence, meaning in life, quality of life, and sociodemographic background.
Findings indicated that greater presence of meaning in life, quality of life, age, death experience, and carer experience were each statistically significant unique predictors of death competence scores. Life-related variables were more strongly associated with death competence than demographic variables. Bereavement experience and experience caring for the dying was associated with greater death competence, but there were no differences on death competence between health professionals and the general community. Above all other factors, the presence of meaning in life was the strongest predictor of higher perceived competence in coping with death.
Significance of results
The findings demonstrate important interconnections between our attitudes about life and death. Knowledge of factors associated with poorer death competence may help identify those at risk of greater distress when facing death, and might prove useful additions to bereavement risk assessments. Understanding factors associated with greater death competence in health professionals and volunteers may help predict or prevent burnout and compassion fatigue, and help identify who would benefit from additional training and support. Future longitudinal studies including both health professionals and the general community are needed to determine the effect adaptive attitudes toward meaning in life can potentially have on bolstering subsequent adaptive coping and competence regarding death and dying.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Community health coalitions (CHC) aim to improve local cultures of health, health behaviors, and health outcomes. However, challenges sustaining partnerships and activities limit CHC impact. Traditional CHC evaluations survey members about perceived effectiveness, failing to capture underlying network structures and community health outcomes. Thus, we applied a mixed-methods evaluation in eight rural Indiana CHC, triangulating social network analysis [(SNA), conducted in 2017], functioning effectiveness [Coalition Self-Assessment Survey (CSAS), also 2017], and latest county health statistics (2015–2016) to assess existing CHC building efforts, inform best practices, and facilitate the adoption of evidence-based programming. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Across the eight rural Indiana CHC, relationships between the three evaluation components were analyzed using Pearson’s correlations. We are now collaborating with Purdue’s Nutrition Education Program Community Wellness Coordinators to scale up evaluation efforts throughout Indiana. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: CHC effectiveness was positively correlated with the average number of connections CHC members held in the network (mean indegree) and negatively correlated with the presence of a network broker (eigenvector centrality). However, effective leadership was positively correlated with opioid deaths and treatment, food insecurity, smoking during pregnancy, lack of healthcare coverage, and fair/ poor health status, and negatively correlated with prenatal care. Effective operating norms was positively correlated with smoking during pregnancy and preterm births, and negatively correlated with prenatal care. Effective action outcomes was positively correlated with opioid deaths and treatments, smoking during pregnancy, preterm births, and fair/ poor health status, and negatively correlated with respondents reporting they had no personal doctor. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Interestingly, CHC effectiveness was positively correlated with poor county health outcomes related to infant well-being. Thus, CHC may develop in counties with a high unmet need for effective pregnancy and infant services. Alternatively, the prevalent CHC focus on obesity prevention may eclipse programmatic efforts to improve infant well-being. Longitudinal evaluations and scaling up evaluation efforts across Indiana are being pursued to clarify trajectories and inform best practices, which in turn should provide recommendations for network structures to improve CHC effectiveness and county health.
Community stakeholders often participate in community research training curricula development. There is limited information describing how their input informs curricula. This paper describes input solicitation methods, input received, and examples of its integration.
From June 2014 to June 2016, community members (CMs) and community-based organizations (CBOs) guided curricula development tailored for CMs and CBOs, respectively. Engagement methods included a strategic planning retreat, surveys, a listening session, workgroup meetings, and community engagement studios. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize survey input. For other methods, input was extracted and compiled from facilitator notes.
CMs (n=37) and CBOs (n=83) providing input included patients and caregivers and advocacy, community service, and faith-based organizations, respectively. The major feedback categories were training topic priorities, format (e.g., face-to-face vs. online), logistics (e.g., training frequency), and compensation (e.g., appropriateness). Input directly guided design of CBO and CM curricula (e.g., additional time devoted to specific topics based on feedback) or helped to finalize logistics.
Multiple quantitative and qualitative methods can be used to elicit input from community stakeholders to inform the development of community research training curricula. This input is essential for the development of training curricula that are culturally relevant and acceptable.
Japan's remarkable postwar growth spurt in the 1960s would not have been possible without Japan's alliance with the United States. Policy makers, political scientists, economists, historians, and journalists on both sides of the Pacific have made this claim, but no study has yet tested it with modern statistical methods. In this article, we compare the economic growth trajectories of Japan and a statistically constructed “synthetic” Japan, which had a similar profile until the late 1950s but did not experience the consolidation of the US–Japan alliance, a process that began in 1958 and culminated with the signing of a formal defense pact in January 1960. We find that Japan's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than the synthetic Japan's from 1958 to 1968. We substantiate these results with in-depth historical analyses on how the United States facilitated Japan's economic miracle.
To investigate the association of policy, systems and environmental factors with improvement in household food security among low-income Indiana households with children after a Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program-Education (SNAP-Ed) direct nutrition education intervention.
Household food security scores measured by the eighteen-item US Household Food Security Survey Module in a longitudinal randomized and controlled SNAP-Ed intervention study conducted from August 2013 to April 2015 were the response variable. Metrics to quantify environmental factors including classification of urban or rural county status; the number of SNAP-authorized stores, food pantries and recreational facilities; average fair market housing rental price; and natural amenity rank were collected from government websites and data sets covering the years 2012–2016 and used as covariates in mixed multiple linear regression modelling.
Thirty-seven Indiana counties, USA, 2012–2016.
SNAP-Ed eligible adults from households with children (n 328).
None of the environmental factors investigated were significantly associated with changes in household food security in this exploratory study.
SNAP-Ed improves food security regardless of urban or rural location or the environmental factors investigated. Expansion of SNAP-Ed in rural areas may support food access among the low-income population and reduce the prevalence of food insecurity in rural compared with urban areas. Further investigation into policy, systems and environmental factors of the Social Ecological Model are warranted to better understand their relationship with direct SNAP-Ed and their impact on diet-related behaviours and food security.
Social feedback is a driving force for speech development. A recent study provided a key finding to explain how contingent responses influence developmental change: infant speech-related vocalizations are contingent on responses to prior speech-related vocalizations (Warlaumont et al., 2014). However, the study did not distinguish between different speech-related vocalizations, vowel-like (V) and consonant–vowel (CV) vocalizations, which is important because CV vocalizations are a precursor to words. The present study explored parents’ responses to infants’ vocalizations and infants’ subsequent vocal production at a point when vocalizations become more like adult speech. The relative proportion of CVs following contingent responses to CV did not differ between 10- and 12-months-olds; however, there was only a significant contingent relationship between responses to CV and subsequent CV production in 12-month-olds. Results suggest a developmental transition and a social feedback loop for the production of more developmentally advanced sounds when infants are learning their first words.
This paper examines the proposition that sexual and contraceptive behaviours mediate the relationship between the pregnancy desires of young, unmarried women and their having an unplanned pregnancy. The sample consisted of 854 18- to 19-year-old women living in Michigan, USA. First, the positive and negative pregnancy desires of these women were measured, as were the women’s perceptions of the positive and negative desires of their sexual partners. Then the extent to which these four types of desires, as well as several types of interactions between them, prospectively predicted the occurrence of subsequent pregnancies were tested with logistic regression analyses, initially alone and then after the addition of several types of sexual and contraceptive mediator variables. The results demonstrated that four of the ten significant motivational predictors became non-significant following the introduction of the contraceptive mediator variables and that the predictive strength of the other six significant motivational predictors was substantially reduced by their introduction. A number of factors that may account for only a partial mediational effect in some models are discussed.
Despite significant needs, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) make limited use of palliative care, in part because the current models of palliative care do not address their key concerns.
Our aim was to develop a tailored model of palliative care for patients with COPD and their family caregivers.
Based on information gathered within a program of studies (qualitative research exploring experiences, a cohort study examining service use), an expert advisory committee evaluated and integrated data, developed responses, formulated principles to inform care, and made recommendations for practice. The informing studies were conducted in two Australian states: Victoria and South Australia.
A series of principles underpinning the model were developed, including that it must be: (1) focused on patient and caregiver; (2) equitable, enabling access to components of palliative care for a group with significant needs; (3) accessible; and (4) less resource-intensive than expansion of usual palliative care service delivery. The recommended conceptual model was to have the following features: (a) entry to palliative care occurs routinely triggered by clinical transitions in care; (b) care is embedded in routine ambulatory respiratory care, ensuring that it is regarded as “usual” care by patients and clinicians alike; (c) the tasks include screening for physical and psychological symptoms, social and community support, provision of information, and discussions around goals and preferences for care; and (d) transition to usual palliative care services is facilitated as the patient nears death.
Significance of results:
Our proposed innovative and conceptual model for provision of palliative care requires future formal testing using rigorous mixed-methods approaches to determine if theoretical propositions translate into effectiveness, feasibility, and benefits (including economic benefits). There is reason to consider adaptation of the model for the palliative care of patients with other nonmalignant conditions.
Wings: Social and emotional wellbeing in the early years is a professional development programme designed to assist educators in early years services to improve outcomes for children. It uses a strengths-based approach and supports educators to understand the impact of their interactions with children and to use communication strategies, such as descriptive feedback, to develop children's capacities. These strategies are used to help children recognise their strengths and build their ability to self-regulate and manage their own social and emotional wellbeing. This paper reports on the outcomes of the Wings programme introduced into early childhood services in rural and remote south-west Queensland, Australia, through the Community Wellbeing Project run by the Pathways to Resilience Trust in partnership with Anglicare Southern Queensland. Preliminary findings indicate the Wings programme successfully enhanced the confidence and knowledge of early years educators engaged in promoting children's social and emotional wellbeing.
Approximately half of the variation in wellbeing measures overlaps with variation in personality traits. Studies of non-human primate pedigrees and human twins suggest that this is due to common genetic influences. We tested whether personality polygenic scores for the NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) domains and for item response theory (IRT) derived extraversion and neuroticism scores predict variance in wellbeing measures. Polygenic scores were based on published genome-wide association (GWA) results in over 17,000 individuals for the NEO-FFI and in over 63,000 for the IRT extraversion and neuroticism traits. The NEO-FFI polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction in 7 cohorts, positive affect in 12 cohorts, and general wellbeing in 1 cohort (maximal N = 46,508). Meta-analysis of these results showed no significant association between NEO-FFI personality polygenic scores and the wellbeing measures. IRT extraversion and neuroticism polygenic scores were used to predict life satisfaction and positive affect in almost 37,000 individuals from UK Biobank. Significant positive associations (effect sizes <0.05%) were observed between the extraversion polygenic score and wellbeing measures, and a negative association was observed between the polygenic neuroticism score and life satisfaction. Furthermore, using GWA data, genetic correlations of -0.49 and -0.55 were estimated between neuroticism with life satisfaction and positive affect, respectively. The moderate genetic correlation between neuroticism and wellbeing is in line with twin research showing that genetic influences on wellbeing are also shared with other independent personality domains.
Social networks, particularly those defined by friendships, influence many childhood and adolescent health behaviors such as the use of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, as well as diet and physical activity. Few, if any, studies have examined the concordance between friendship networks and sun exposure/safety behaviors. This study examines the friendship networks and sun safety behaviors for a group of fourth and fifth grade students taking part in a larger sun safety intervention, “SunSmart” (n = 128). Intra-class correlation, homophily hypothesis testing, and exponential random graph models were used to test friendship homophily based on sun safety behaviors. Peer Leaders were identified through social network popularity, and sun safety change scores were compared between Peer Leaders and non-leaders. Results show that students cluster based on shared demographic characteristics and some sun safety behaviors, and that there was a trend for Peer Leaders to respond better to the SunSmart intervention than non-leaders. Implications for future sun safety interventions using Peer Leaders as champions for sun safety behavior change are discussed.