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Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.
Methods
We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011–2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016–2018, LS2: 2018–2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.
Results
Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10–30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9–92.5% of 12-month SAs.
Conclusions
An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.
Childhood adversities (CAs) predict heightened risks of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive episode (MDE) among people exposed to adult traumatic events. Identifying which CAs put individuals at greatest risk for these adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) is important for targeting prevention interventions.
Methods
Data came from n = 999 patients ages 18–75 presenting to 29 U.S. emergency departments after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) and followed for 3 months, the amount of time traditionally used to define chronic PTSD, in the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study. Six CA types were self-reported at baseline: physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, physical neglect, emotional neglect and bullying. Both dichotomous measures of ever experiencing each CA type and numeric measures of exposure frequency were included in the analysis. Risk ratios (RRs) of these CA measures as well as complex interactions among these measures were examined as predictors of APNS 3 months post-MVC. APNS was defined as meeting self-reported criteria for either PTSD based on the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 and/or MDE based on the PROMIS Depression Short-Form 8b. We controlled for pre-MVC lifetime histories of PTSD and MDE. We also examined mediating effects through peritraumatic symptoms assessed in the emergency department and PTSD and MDE assessed in 2-week and 8-week follow-up surveys. Analyses were carried out with robust Poisson regression models.
Results
Most participants (90.9%) reported at least rarely having experienced some CA. Ever experiencing each CA other than emotional neglect was univariably associated with 3-month APNS (RRs = 1.31–1.60). Each CA frequency was also univariably associated with 3-month APNS (RRs = 1.65–2.45). In multivariable models, joint associations of CAs with 3-month APNS were additive, with frequency of emotional abuse (RR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.43–2.87) and bullying (RR = 1.44; 95% CI = 0.99–2.10) being the strongest predictors. Control variable analyses found that these associations were largely explained by pre-MVC histories of PTSD and MDE.
Conclusions
Although individuals who experience frequent emotional abuse and bullying in childhood have a heightened risk of experiencing APNS after an adult MVC, these associations are largely mediated by prior histories of PTSD and MDE.
Concerns have been raised about the utility of self-report assessments in predicting future suicide attempts. Clinicians in pediatric emergency departments (EDs) often are required to assess suicidal risk. The Death Implicit Association Test (IAT) is an alternative to self-report assessment of suicidal risk that may have utility in ED settings.
Methods
A total of 1679 adolescents recruited from 13 pediatric emergency rooms in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network were assessed using a self-report survey of risk and protective factors for a suicide attempt, and the IAT, and then followed up 3 months later to determine if an attempt had occurred. The accuracy of prediction was compared between self-reports and the IAT using the area under the curve (AUC) with respect to receiver operator characteristics.
Results
A few self-report variables, namely, current and past suicide ideation, past suicidal behavior, total negative life events, and school or social connectedness, predicted an attempt at 3 months with an AUC of 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84–0.90] in the entire sample, and AUC = 0.91, (95% CI 0.85–0.95) for those who presented without reported suicidal ideation. The IAT did not add significantly to the predictive power of selected self-report variables. The IAT alone was modestly predictive of 3-month attempts in the overall sample ((AUC = 0.59, 95% CI 0.52–0.65) and was a better predictor in patients who were non-suicidal at baseline (AUC = 0.67, 95% CI 0.55–0.79).
Conclusions
In pediatric EDs, a small set of self-reported items predicted suicide attempts within 3 months more accurately than did the IAT.
Filamentary structures can form within the beam of protons accelerated during the interaction of an intense laser pulse with an ultrathin foil target. Such behaviour is shown to be dependent upon the formation time of quasi-static magnetic field structures throughout the target volume and the extent of the rear surface proton expansion over the same period. This is observed via both numerical and experimental investigations. By controlling the intensity profile of the laser drive, via the use of two temporally separated pulses, both the initial rear surface proton expansion and magnetic field formation time can be varied, resulting in modification to the degree of filamentary structure present within the laser-driven proton beam.
Inceptisols are the major forest soils in northern Taiwan. Some chemical, physical and morphological properties have been documented for these soils, yet there is little information on the mineralogy and the charge characteristics of their constituent 2:1 clay minerals. In this study we conducted a detailed characterization of the clay mineralogy of two Inceptisols. Two pedons were sampled at diagnostic horizons and the clay mineralogy was examined by X-ray diffraction. The magnitude of the layer charge of the 2:1 phyllosilicates was estimated using the alkylammonium exchange method (nC = 12). The clay mineralogy of both soils was dominated by vermiculite and mica with small amounts of kaolinite. The surface horizon contained more mica and kaolinite than the lower horizons. The mean layer charge of vermiculite ranged between 0.60 and 0.86 cmolc/(O10(OH)2). The distribution of clay layer charge decreased with increasing soil depth in two pedons. Differences in layer charge between samples are due to differences in weathering processes. The difference in the extent of clay mineral weathering in the A and Bsm horizons could be partly because the mineral surfaces in the Bsm horizon were coated with organo-Fe complexes which protected them from weathering.
We performed a spatial-temporal analysis to assess household risk factors for Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in a remote, severely-affected village. We defined a household as a family's shared living space and a case-household as a household with at least one resident who became a suspect, probable, or confirmed Ebola case from 1 August 2014 to 10 October 2014. We used Geographic Information System (GIS) software to calculate inter-household distances, performed space-time cluster analyses, and developed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). Village X consisted of 64 households; 42% of households became case-households over the observation period. Two significant space-time clusters occurred among households in the village; temporal effects outweighed spatial effects. GEE demonstrated that the odds of becoming a case-household increased by 4·0% for each additional person per household (P < 0·02) and 2·6% per day (P < 0·07). An increasing number of persons per household, and to a lesser extent, the passage of time after onset of the outbreak were risk factors for household Ebola acquisition, emphasizing the importance of prompt public health interventions that prioritize the most populated households. Using GIS with GEE can reveal complex spatial-temporal risk factors, which can inform prioritization of response activities in future outbreaks.
This work presents a detailed, orbitally tuned biogenic silica record of continental paleoclimate change during the Brunhes chron. The Brunhes/Matuyama boundary lies within the warm isotopic stage 19 in Baikal, and the boundaries between eight lithological cycles correspond to terminations in the marine oxygen isotope record. The high amplitude and resolution of climatically driven changes in BioSi content in Lake Baikal sediments permits tuning of almost every precessional cycle during the Brunhes and reveals the structure of interglacial stages. For example, the last three interglacial stages (MIS 5, 7, and 9) clearly consist of five substages (a, b, c, d, e) corresponding to precessional insolation peaks. Abrupt and intense regional glaciations in Siberia during substages 5d and 7d were driven by extreme insolation minima. During substage 9d cooling was more gradual in response to more moderate forcing. The impact of strong glaciation is also observed in the middle of stage 15, where full glacial conditions appear to have lasted for over 30,000 yr during substages 15d, 15c, and 15b. Marine oxygen isotopic stage 11 appears to be the warmest period during the Brunhes in the Lake Baikal record, with at least three substages.
A new hypothesis is presented regarding the response of the Lake Baikal BioSi record to insolation forcing. Based on the mechanism controlling modern diatom blooms, biogenic silica production is hypothesized to be dependent on changes in the heat balance of the lake and consequently on changes in the thermal structure of the water column. This mechanism is also sensitive to short-term sub-Milankovich cooling events, such as the mid-Eemian cooling, the Montaigu event during substage 5c, and a cooling which appears to be analogous to the Montaigu event during substage 9c. The continuity of the Lake Baikal paleoclimate record, its sensitivity to orbital forcing, and its high resolution make it an excellent candidate for a new “paleoclimatic stratotype” section for continental Asia.
Accurate models of X-ray absorption and re-emission in partly stripped ions are necessary to calculate the structure of stars, the performance of hohlraums for inertial confinement fusion and many other systems in high-energy-density plasma physics. Despite theoretical progress, a persistent discrepancy exists with recent experiments at the Sandia Z facility studying iron in conditions characteristic of the solar radiative–convective transition region. The increased iron opacity measured at Z could help resolve a longstanding issue with the standard solar model, but requires a radical departure for opacity theory. To replicate the Z measurements, an opacity experiment has been designed for the National Facility (NIF). The design uses established techniques scaled to NIF. A laser-heated hohlraum will produce X-ray-heated uniform iron plasmas in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) at temperatures ${\geqslant}150$ eV and electron densities ${\geqslant}7\times 10^{21}~\text{cm}^{-3}$. The iron will be probed using continuum X-rays emitted in a ${\sim}200$ ps, ${\sim}200~\unicode[STIX]{x03BC}\text{m}$ diameter source from a 2 mm diameter polystyrene (CH) capsule implosion. In this design, $2/3$ of the NIF beams deliver 500 kJ to the ${\sim}6$ mm diameter hohlraum, and the remaining $1/3$ directly drive the CH capsule with 200 kJ. Calculations indicate this capsule backlighter should outshine the iron sample, delivering a point-projection transmission opacity measurement to a time-integrated X-ray spectrometer viewing down the hohlraum axis. Preliminary experiments to develop the backlighter and hohlraum are underway, informing simulated measurements to guide the final design.
Effective preparedness, response, and recovery from disasters require a well-planned, integrated effort with experienced professionals who can apply specialized knowledge and skills in critical situations. While some professionals are trained for this, others may lack the critical knowledge and experience needed to effectively perform under stressful disaster conditions. A set of clear, concise, and precise training standards that may be used to ensure workforce competency in such situations has been developed. The competency set has been defined by a broad and diverse set of leaders in the field and like-minded professionals through a series of Web-based surveys and expert working group meetings. The results may provide a useful starting point for delineating expected competency levels of health professionals in disaster medicine and public health.
(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2012;6:44–52)
Edited by
Alex S. Evers, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis,Mervyn Maze, University of California, San Francisco,Evan D. Kharasch, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis