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Viral pneumonia is an important cause of death and morbidity among infants worldwide. Transmission of non-influenza respiratory viruses in households can inform preventative interventions and has not been well-characterised in South Asia. From April 2011 to April 2012, household members of pregnant women enrolled in a randomised trial of influenza vaccine in rural Nepal were surveyed weekly for respiratory illness until 180 days after birth. Nasal swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for respiratory viruses in symptomatic individuals. A transmission event was defined as a secondary case of the same virus within 14 days of initial infection within a household. From 555 households, 825 initial viral illness episodes occurred, resulting in 79 transmission events. The overall incidence of transmission was 1.14 events per 100 person-weeks. Risk of transmission incidence was associated with an index case age 1–4 years (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40–3.96), coinfection as initial infection (IRR 1.94; 95% CI 1.05–3.61) and no electricity in household (IRR 2.70; 95% CI 1.41–5.00). Preventive interventions targeting preschool-age children in households in resource-limited settings may decrease the risk of transmission to vulnerable household members, such as young infants.
The current study examined whether self-reported memory problems among cognitively intact older adults changed concurrently with, preceded, or followed depressive symptoms over time.
Data were collected annually via in-person comprehensive medical and neuropsychological examinations as part of the Einstein Aging Study.
Community-dwelling older adults in an urban, multi-ethnic area of New York City were interviewed.
The current study included a total of 1,162 older adults (Mage = 77.65, SD = 5.03, 63.39% female; 74.12% White). Data were utilized from up to 11 annual waves per participant.
Multilevel modeling tested concurrent and lagged associations between three types of memory self-report (frequency of memory problems, perceived one-year decline, and perceived ten-year decline) and depressive symptoms.
Results showed that self-reported frequency of memory problems covaried with depressive symptoms only in participants who were older at baseline. Changes in perceived one-year and ten-year memory decline were related to changes in depressive symptoms across all ages. Depressive symptoms increased the likelihood of perceived ten-year memory decline the next year; however, perceived ten-year memory decline did not predict future depressive symptoms. Additionally, no significant temporal relationship was observed between depressive symptoms and self-reported frequency of memory problems or perceived one-year memory decline.
Our findings highlight the importance of testing the unique associations of different types of self-reported memory problems with depressive symptoms.
To determine infection prevention and control (IPAC) practices for carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE), an emerging threat, at acute-care hospitals in Ontario, Canada.
A descriptive cross-sectional survey.
We surveyed IPAC directors and managers at all acute-care hospitals in Ontario, Canada, to gather information on IPAC practices related to CPE, including admission screening, other patient screening, environmental testing, use of precautions to prevent transmission, and outbreak management.
Of 116 acute-care hospitals, 105 (91%) responded. Admission screening included patients previously colonized or infected with CPE (n = 64, 61%), patients recently hospitalized outside of Canada (Indian subcontinent, n = 62, 59%; other countries, n = 56, 53%), and patients recently hospitalized in Canada (n = 22, 21%). Fifty-one hospitals (49%) screened patients for colonization during an outbreak. Almost all hospitals (n = 101, 96%) used precautions to prevent transmission from patients with CPE colonization or infection; most hospitals (n = 54, 53%) continued precautions indefinitely. Few hospitals (n = 19, 18%) performed environmental cultures. Eight hospitals (8%) reported at least 1 outbreak, and 6 hospitals (6%) reported transmission from sink or shower drains to patients.
Variability in practices may result from lack of evidence and challenges in updating guidelines as evidence emerges. A coordinated approach to slow the emergence of CPE should be considered in our population.
Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:
∙Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).
∙Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).
∙Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).
Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:
∙While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.
∙There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.
∙No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)
∙No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.
∙Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.
Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.
Within the next decade, we may hope to see the publication of a definitive study of the traditional folk music of Spain. The scope and direction of such a project, whether left entirely to an individual or carried out by a team of specialists, will require painstaking considerations in the formation of its basic outline. A procedure should be established which takes into consideration the categorization of materials, such as cancioneros (‘anthologies of songs’) dating from the thirteenth through the seventeenth centuries, on the one hand, and the folkloristic/anthropological and ethnomusicological collections, on the other. The integration of these diverse materials would provide the core for such an undertaking.
In 1930, Miss Zarita Nahón recorded for the Departments of Anthropology and Spanish at Columbia University, at the suggestion of Prof. Franz Boas, nineteen examples of Judeo-Spanish traditional songs from Tangier (Morocco). The informant was her sister, Suzanne (Simy) Toledano. During the previous year, Miss Nahón brought together an extensive collection of Sephardic folk literature in her native Tangier as part of a graduate studies project under the direction of Prof. Boas (see Armistead/Silverman 1977). The examples, which were beautifully sung at Columbia University and recorded on aluminum discs, significantly supplement, both musically and textually, the corpus gathered in Tangier. The original recordings were subsequently deposited at the Indiana University Archives of Folk and Primitive Music under the direction of Prof. George Herzog.
With the appearance of Vols. XI and XII, Svend Grundtvig's monumental collection of Medieval Danish ballads has now, after over a century of sustained collaborative effort, been brought to completion. Its publication constitutes a major achievement of Scandinavian scholarship and signifies, as well, a crucially important contribution to comparative ballad research. First issued between 1853 and 1965, DgF was rarely to be found complete, in its original edition, even on the shelves of major university libraries. The new edition of Vols. I-X, including important supplementary material and brief English prefaces (by Erik Dal) explaining the history and composition of each volume, was published in 1966 and 1967. In 1976, this vast project was brought to a fruitful conclusion with the printing of the newly edited Vols. XI and XII, which had never before been published.
To investigate whether amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) identified with visual memory tests conveys an increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease (risk-AD) and if the risk-AD differs from that associated with aMCI based on verbal memory tests.
4,771 participants aged 70.76 (SD = 6.74, 45.4% females) from five community-based studies, each a member of the international COSMIC consortium and from a different country, were classified as having normal cognition (NC) or one of visual, verbal, or combined (visual and verbal) aMCI using international criteria and followed for an average of 2.48 years. Hazard ratios (HR) and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis analyzed the risk-AD with age, sex, education, single/multiple domain aMCI, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores as covariates.
All aMCI groups (n = 760) had a greater risk-AD than NC (n = 4,011; HR range = 3.66 – 9.25). The risk-AD was not different between visual (n = 208, 17 converters) and verbal aMCI (n = 449, 29 converters, HR = 1.70, 95%CI: 0.88, 3.27, p = 0.111). Combined aMCI (n = 103, 12 converters, HR = 2.34, 95%CI: 1.13, 4.84, p = 0.023) had a higher risk-AD than verbal aMCI. Age and MMSE scores were related to the risk-AD. The IPD meta-analyses replicated these results, though with slightly lower HR estimates (HR range = 3.68, 7.43) for aMCI vs. NC.
Although verbal aMCI was most common, a significant proportion of participants had visual-only or combined visual and verbal aMCI. Compared with verbal aMCI, the risk-AD was the same for visual aMCI and higher for combined aMCI. Our results highlight the importance of including both verbal and visual memory tests in neuropsychological assessments to more reliably identify aMCI.
Magnetic field measurements in turbulent plasmas are often difficult to perform. Here we show that for
kG magnetic fields, a time-resolved Faraday rotation measurement can be made at the OMEGA laser facility. This diagnostic has been implemented using the Thomson scattering probe beam and the resultant path-integrated magnetic field has been compared with that of proton radiography. Accurate measurement of magnetic fields is essential for satisfying the scientific goals of many current laser–plasma experiments.
In “Toward a Theory of Race, Crime, and Urban Inequality,” Sampson and Wilson (1995) argued that racial disparities in violent crime are attributable in large part to the persistent structural disadvantages that are disproportionately concentrated in African American communities. They also argued that the ultimate causes of crime were similar for both Whites and Blacks, leading to what has been labeled the thesis of “racial invariance.” In light of the large scale social changes of the past two decades and the renewed political salience of race and crime in the United States, this paper reassesses and updates evidence evaluating the theory. In so doing, we clarify key concepts from the original thesis, delineate the proper context of validation, and address new challenges. Overall, we find that the accumulated empirical evidence provides broad but qualified support for the theoretical claims. We conclude by charting a dual path forward: an agenda for future research on the linkages between race and crime, and policy recommendations that align with the theory’s emphasis on neighborhood level structural forces but with causal space for cultural factors.
Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify natural subgroups of older adults based on cognitive performance, and to establish each subgroup’s characteristics based on demographic factors, physical function, psychosocial well-being, and comorbidity. Methods: We applied latent class (LC) modeling to identify subgroups in baseline assessments of 1345 Einstein Aging Study (EAS) participants free of dementia. The EAS is a community-dwelling cohort study of 70+ year-old adults living in the Bronx, NY. We used 10 neurocognitive tests and 3 covariates (age, sex, education) to identify latent subgroups. We used goodness-of-fit statistics to identify the optimal class solution and assess model adequacy. We also validated our model using two-fold split-half cross-validation. Results: The sample had a mean age of 78.0 (SD=5.4) and a mean of 13.6 years of education (SD=3.5). A 9-class solution based on cognitive performance at baseline was the best-fitting model. We characterized the 9 identified classes as (i) disadvantaged, (ii) poor language, (iii) poor episodic memory and fluency, (iv) poor processing speed and executive function, (v) low average, (vi) high average, (vii) average, (viii) poor executive and poor working memory, (ix) elite. The cross validation indicated stable class assignment with the exception of the average and high average classes. Conclusions: LC modeling in a community sample of older adults revealed 9 cognitive subgroups. Assignment of subgroups was reliable and associated with external validators. Future work will test the predictive validity of these groups for outcomes such as Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia and death, as well as markers of biological pathways that contribute to cognitive decline. (JINS, 2018, 24, 511–523)
After the diagnosis of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMID) such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the incidence of psychiatric comorbidity is increased relative to the general population. We aimed to determine whether the incidence of psychiatric disorders is increased in the 5 years before the diagnosis of IMID as compared with the general population.
Using population-based administrative health data from the Canadian province of Manitoba, we identified all persons with incident IBD, MS and RA between 1989 and 2012, and cohorts from the general population matched 5 : 1 on year of birth, sex and region to each disease cohort. We identified members of these groups with at least 5 years of residency before and after the IMID diagnosis date. We applied validated algorithms for depression, anxiety disorders, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and any psychiatric disorder to determine the annual incidence of these conditions in the 5-year periods before and after the diagnosis year.
We identified 12 141 incident cases of IMID (3766 IBD, 2190 MS, 6350 RA) and 65 424 matched individuals. As early as 5 years before diagnosis, the incidence of depression [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.54; 95% CI 1.30–1.84) and anxiety disorders (IRR 1.30; 95% CI 1.12–1.51) were elevated in the IMID cohort as compared with the matched cohort. Similar results were obtained for each of the IBD, MS and RA cohorts. The incidence of bipolar disorder was elevated beginning 3 years before IMID diagnosis (IRR 1.63; 95% CI 1.10–2.40).
The incidence of psychiatric comorbidity is elevated in the IMID population as compared with a matched population as early as 5 years before diagnosis. Future studies should elucidate whether this reflects shared risk factors for psychiatric disorders and IMID, a shared final common inflammatory pathway or other aetiology.