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Guangxi, a province in southwestern China, has the second highest reported number of HIV/AIDS cases in China. This study aimed to develop an accurate and effective model to describe the tendency of HIV and to predict its incidence in Guangxi. HIV incidence data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2016 were obtained from the database of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) models and exponential smoothing (ES) were used to fit the incidence data. Data from 2015 and 2016 were used to validate the most suitable models. The model performances were evaluated by evaluating metrics, including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. The LSTM model had the lowest MSE when the N value (time step) was 12. The most appropriate ARIMA models for incidence in 2015 and 2016 were ARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)12 and ARIMA (2, 1, 0) (1, 1, 2)12, respectively. The accuracy of GRNN and ES models in forecasting HIV incidence in Guangxi was relatively poor. Four performance metrics of the LSTM model were all lower than the ARIMA, GRNN and ES models. The LSTM model was more effective than other time-series models and is important for the monitoring and control of local HIV epidemics.
The association between opportunistic infection (OI) and anaemia among HIV-infected patients remains to be studied. We investigated the prevalence and risk factors of anaemia in hospitalised HIV-infected patients to reveal the association between OI and anaemia. We conducted a retrospective study of HIV-positive hospitalised patients from June 2016 to December 2017 in Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University. Patients’ information on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were carefully collected. The comparison of anaemia prevalence between groups was conducted with χ2 test. A logistic regression model was carried out to analyse the predictors of anaemia. The total prevalence of anaemia in hospitalised HIV-infected patients was 55.15%. The prevalence of mild, moderate and severe anaemia was 41.42%, 11.08% and 2.64%, respectively. Predictors independently associated with anaemia were: CD4 counts <50 cells/μl (odds ratio (OR): 6.376, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.916–21.215, P = 0.003), CD4 counts 50–199 cells/μl (OR: 6.303, 95% CI = 1.874–21.203, P = 0.003), co-infection with tuberculosis (TB) (OR: 2.703, 95% CI = 1.349–5.414, P = 0.005) or Penicillium marneffei (PM) (OR: 7.162, 95% CI = 3.147–15.299, P < 0.001). In Fujian, China, more than half inpatients with HIV were anaemic, but severe anaemia is infrequent. Lower CD4 counts, co-infection with TB or PM were independent risk factors for anaemia. Chinese HIV patients especially with TB, PM infection and low CD4 level should be routinely detected for anaemia to improve therapy.
Using whole-genome sequence (WGS) data are supposed to be optimal for genome-wide association studies and genomic predictions. However, sequencing thousands of individuals of interest is expensive. Imputation from single nucleotide polymorphisms panels to WGS data is an attractive approach to obtain highly reliable WGS data at low cost. Here, we conducted a genotype imputation study with a combined reference panel in yellow-feather dwarf broiler population. The combined reference panel was assembled by sequencing 24 key individuals of a yellow-feather dwarf broiler population (internal reference panel) and WGS data from 311 chickens in public databases (external reference panel). Three scenarios were investigated to determine how different factors affect the accuracy of imputation from 600 K array data to WGS data, including: genotype imputation with internal, external and combined reference panels; the number of internal reference individuals in the combined reference panel; and different reference sizes and selection strategies of an external reference panel. Results showed that imputation accuracy from 600 K to WGS data were 0.834±0.012, 0.920±0.007 and 0.982±0.003 for the internal, external and combined reference panels, respectively. Increasing the reference size from 50 to 250 improved the accuracy of genotype imputation from 0.848 to 0.974 for the combined reference panel and from 0.647 to 0.917 for the external reference panel. The selection strategies for the external reference panel had no impact on the accuracy of imputation using the combined reference panel. However, if only an external reference panel with reference size >50 was used, the selection strategy of minimizing the average distance to the closest leaf had the greatest imputation accuracy compared with other methods. Generally, using a combined reference panel provided greater imputation accuracy, especially for low-frequency variants. In conclusion, the optimal imputation strategy with a combined reference panel should comprehensively consider genetic diversity of the study population, availability and properties of external reference panels, sequencing and computing costs, and frequency of imputed variants. This work sheds light on how to design and execute genotype imputation with a combined external reference panel in a livestock population.
Diarrhea is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and the incidence of diarrhea in the world has changed little over the past four decades. To assess the prevalence of and healthcare practices for diarrhea, a cross-sectional study was conducted in Pudong, Shanghai, China. In October 2014, a total of 5324 community residents were interviewed. Respondents were asked if they had experienced diarrhea (defined as ⩾3 passages of watery, loose, bloody, or mucoid stools within a 24-h period) in the previous month prior to the interview. The monthly prevalence of diarrhea was 4·1% (95% CI: 3·3–4·8), corresponding to an incidence rate of 0·54 episodes per person-year. The proportion of individuals with diarrhea who sought healthcare was 21·2% (95% CI: 13·4–29·0). Diarrhea continues to impose a considerable burden on the community and healthcare system in Pudong. Young age and travel were identified as predictors of increased diarrhea occurrence.
Pig farmers and veterinarians have high prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) due to the occupational livestock exposure, while few reported this association on slaughterhouse workers. We conducted this cross-sectional study to explore the phenotypic and molecular characteristics of S. aureus and MRSA in slaughterhouse pig-related workers and control workers in Guangdong Province, China. Participants were interviewed and provided two nasal swabs. Swabs were tested for S. aureus, and isolates were further tested for antimicrobial susceptibility, virulence genes and multi-locus sequence typing. Compared with control workers, pig-related workers have significantly higher prevalence of MRSA carriage (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) 3·70, 95% CI 1·63–8·40). The proportions of MRSA resistant to clindamycin, erythromycin, tetracycline or chloromycetin were significantly higher in pig-related workers than in control workers. The predominant phenotypes of S. aureus were resistant to penicillin, clindamycin, erythromycin and tetracycline. Three MRSA CC9 isolates with livestock-associated characteristics (resistance to tetracycline and absence of immune evasion cluster (IEC) genes) were detected in pig-related workers but not in control workers. For human-associated CCs (CC7, CC59, CC6, and CC188), there was no significant difference in IEC profile or antimicrobial resistance between the groups. These findings reveal that there may be a potential risk for livestock-to-human transmission of LA-MRSA and human-to-human transmission of human-associated MRSA.
In this paper, we perform an absolute equation of state (EOS) measurement on the principal Hugoniot of aluminum using a near-symmetric impact method. The flyer plates are accelerated to high velocities using the laser-ramp-driven method. An aluminum flyer plate of ~25 µm is accelerated to the velocity range from 4 to 12 km/s. Then the aluminum flyer plate propagates across a vacuum gap and impacts with an aluminum step target. A line-imaging optical recording velocity interferometer for any reflector (ORVIS) is used to measure the aluminum flyer plate and the shock velocity simultaneously. Aluminum EOS data were measured with pressures range from 50 to 200 GPa. This absolute EOS measurement method may be used for studying a variety of materials.
Although extinction risk has been found to have a consistent negative relationship with geographic range across wide temporal and taxonomic scales, the effect has been difficult to disentangle from factors such as sampling, ecological niche, or clade. In addition, studies of extinction risk have focused on benthic invertebrates with less work on planktic taxa. We employed a global set of 1114 planktic graptolite species from the Ordovician to lower Devonian to analyze the predictive power of species’ traits and abiotic factors on extinction risk, combining general linear models (GLMs), partial least-squares regression (PLSR), and permutation tests. Factors included measures of geographic range, sampling, and graptolite-specific factors such as clade, biofacies affiliation, shallow water tolerance, and age cohorts split at the base of the Katian and Rhuddanian stages.
The percent variance in durations explained varied substantially between taxon subsets from 12% to 45%. Overall commonness, the correlated effects of geographic range and sampling, was the strongest, most consistent factor (12–30% variance explained), with clade and age cohort adding up to 18% and other factors <10%. Surprisingly, geographic range alone contributed little explanatory power (<5%). It is likely that this is a consequence of a nonlinear relationship between geographic range and extinction risk, wherein the largest reductions in extinction risk are gained from moderate expansion of small geographic ranges. Thus, even large differences in range size between graptolite species did not lead to a proportionate difference in extinction risk because of the large average ranges of these species. Finally, we emphasize that the common practice of determining the geographic range of taxa from the union of all occurrences over their duration poses a substantial risk of overestimating the geographic scope of the realized ecological niche and, thus, of further conflating sampling effects on observed duration with the biological effects of range size on extinction risk.
This study aimed to evaluate subjective symptom changes in obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome patients following nasal surgery, and to explore treatment efficacy in improving patient quality of life.
Patients with nasal blockage accompanied by habitual snoring were stratified into four groups. Their subjective symptoms were evaluated before and after nasal surgery.
There was a significant decrease in the nasal blockage symptom visual analogue scale, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Snore Outcomes Survey, Spouse/Bed Partners Survey and Sino-Nasal Outcome Test 20 scores for all patients at six months after surgery. The visual analogue scale score for subjective olfactory function was significantly improved in the severe obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome patient group.
Nasal surgery can effectively improve the subjective symptoms of patients with simple snoring accompanied by nasal blockage and of patients with obstructive sleep apnoea hypopnea syndrome, thus improving their quality of life.
EVA foams, like all other polymers, also exhibit strain-rate effects and hysteresis. However, currently available approaches for predicting the mechanical response of polymeric foam subjected to an arbitrarily imposed loading history and strain-rate effect are highly limited. Especially, the strain rates in the intermediate rate domain (between 100 and 102 s–1) are extremely difficult to study. The use of data generated through the drop tower technique for implementation in constitutive equations or numerical models has not been considered in past studies. In this study, an experiment including a quasi-static compression test and drop impact tests with a high speed camera was conducted. An inverse analysis technique combined with a finite element model for material parameter identification was developed to determine the stress–strain behavior of foam at different specific strain rates. It was used in this study to simulate multiple loading and unloading cycles on foam specimens, and the results were compared with experimental measurements.
The simulations of flow past a two-dimensional circular cylinder are conducted to investigate the feasibility of adaptive mesh refinement applied on curved spectral elements. The nonconforming spectral element method and adaptive meshes technique are used to the curve surfaces and observe whether any discontinuity of the solutions. The adaptive nonconforming spectral element method is implemented to compare with those obtained by conforming mesh method with respect to several existing numerical and experimental studies. Meanwhile, three kinds of estimated error base mesh adaptation are conducted to compare their accuracy and efficiency with conforming mesh method. The results show adaptive nonconforming mesh method is more efficient than the conforming method. Especially, the vorticity error based method performs highest accuracy and fastest convergence. The results show this mesh refinement technique is applicable on the curved elements with satisfactory accuracy. It releases this technique may be applied on the simulations of flow past objects with more general geometries.
A new death line for radio pulsars is presented in this paper within the framework of vacuum gap and inverse Compton scattering (ICS) induced pair production process. The 8.5s period pulsar PSR J2144-3933 is located above the death line without any additional assumptions. An “appearance line” instead of the so-called “Hubble line”, is also presented in this paper. Both of those two lines fit observations well.
During the period, work on the problem of the Earth’s rotation has continued to expand and increase its scope. The total number of institutions engaged in the determination of the Earth’s rotation parameters (ERP) by different techniques has been increased significantly. The rotation of the Earth is currently measured by classical astrometry, Doppler and laser satellite tracking, laser ranging of the Moon, and radio interferometry. Several long time series of the ERP are available from most of these techniques, in particular, those made during the Main Campaign of the MERIT project. The various series have been intercompared and their stability, in the time frame of years to days, has been estimated for the purposes of establishing a new conventional terrestrial reference system (COTES). On the other hand, the difficulties of maintaining a regular operation for laser ranging to the Moon (LLR) have been recognized. It resulted in the proposal to organize an one-month campaign of observations in 1985 in order to complement the COTES collocation program and to allow additional intercomparisons with other techniques.
During the period, there have been several major events which have effected the scope and interest of Commission 19. The most significant of these has been the dissolution of the BIH and IPMS and their replacement by the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS). The correlation of higher frequency fluctuations in the Earth’s rotation rate with changes in the Earth’s Atmospheric Angular Momentum is also significant. Many investigators now seem to believe that the “decade variations„ in the Earth’s rotation rate are caused by torques between the core and mantle caused by the uneven motions at the core-mantle boundary. These events and discoveries have made this an exciting period. It seems that the future holds more in the way of discovery due to the utilization of the more accurate and precise Earth rotation data coming from the modern observing techniques.
While the chief function and methods of operation of the Commission have remained much the same as in the past, there has been a gradual evolution in the nature of the proposals submitted. A greater fraction now come from countries in which the study of astronomy on a professional basis is as yet very recent and more proposals are being received from relatively young astronomers, although admittedly the distinction between a “young” and an “established” astronomer is not always easy to make. The commission may wish to consider whether or not it is advisable to reconsider its guidelines. Grants awarded during the interval 30 November 1981 and 31 January 1985 were the following.
Peripheral blood viral load is an important indicator of viral production and clearance. Previous studies have suggested that viral load might predict the rate of decrease in CD4+ cell count and progression to AIDS and death. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends in HIV-1 viral load in southeast China. Among inpatients newly diagnosed with HIV infection, we found that viral load has increased over the past decade from 4·20 log10 copies/ml in 2002 to 6·61 log10 copies/ml in 2014, with a mean increase of 0·19 log10 copies/ml each year. However, the CD4+ cell count was stable and insensitive to changes in viral load. Thus, increasing viral load appears to be an emerging trend in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute contagious condition caused by a spectrum of human enteroviruses. HFMD reinfection is common in the absence of cross-protection from other virus subtypes. This study focused on reinfection in children in Anhui province, China between 2008 and 2013 using surveillance system data. We classified 8960 cases as reinfected, corresponding to a rate of 2·02%. The reinfection rate was higher in boys than in girls [odds ratio (OR) 1·27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·21–1·32, P < 0·001], children aged < 3 years (OR 3·82, 95% CI 3·58–4·07, P < 0·001), and children living in rural areas (OR 1·09, 95% CI 1·04–1·14, P = 0·001). The reinfection rate in children who were originally infected with non-enterovirus A71 (non-EVA71) enteroviruses was higher than those infected with EVA71 (OR 1·36, 95% CI 1·02–1·80, P = 0·034). Influential factors of reinfection rate included annual incidence (β coefficient = 0·715, P = 0·002) and the proportion of EVA71 in patients with mild HFMD (β coefficient = −0·509, P = 0·018). These results demonstrate that boys aged <3 years, especially those in rural areas or regions with a lower EVA71 proportion are more prone to reinfection, and specific health education programmes should be developed to protect these susceptible populations.
Ag–reduced graphene oxide (Ag/rGO) nanoparticle composites were synthesized through a facile one-step hydrothermal reaction using GO and silver carbonate (Ag2CO3) as raw materials. The homogeneous silver nanospheres with an average size of 50 nm well dispersed on the surface of rGO were obtained without other additives. During the formation process, GO both promotes the dispersion of Ag2CO3 in aqueous solution and acts as the substrate of silver cations, and the hydrolysis of Ag2CO3 provides silver cations and alkaline condition. Moreover, GO further serves as reducing agent to generate elemental silver in the alkaline condition. The as-prepared materials exhibit excellent surface-enhanced Raman scattering activities when used to detect the Raman signals of R6G absorbed on the Ag/rGO substrate.
New-type oilseed rape (Brassica napus, ArArCcCc) with introgressed exotic subgenomic components from Brassica rapa (ArAr) and Brassica carinata (BcBcCcCc) showed strong heterosis in both vegetative and reproductive growth. The aim of the current study was to analyse the tolerance of the new-type B. napus with different exotic subgenomic contents to low nitrogen (N) stress. Under hydroponic culture and pot experiments, root system parameters, photosynthetic parameters, relative chlorophyll concentration (SPAD values), biomass, seed yield, seed yield components, N concentration and expressions of genes involved in N transport and assimilation were determined with two new-type B. napus genotypes (N-efficient genotype D4-15 and N-inefficient genotype D1-1) under high-N and low-N levels. Furthermore, N accumulation, N transfer efficiency and N use efficiency (NUE) were analysed in the two genotypes. The hydroponic and potted growth tests showed consistent characteristics in N uptake and utilization efficiency at the seedling stage, and N-efficient genotype (D4-15) showed better growth phenotypes across cultured conditions and N levels. Under the low-N condition, D4-15 produced a larger root system and accumulated more N, and had higher N transfer efficiency and NUE than D1-1. Moreover, D4-15 had significantly higher photosynthetic parameters, photosynthetic NUE and expression levels of the N transporter genes, BnNRT1·1, BnNRT2·5, BnNRT2·7 and BnAMT1·1, in roots or leaves, as well as higher seed yield than that of D1-1 under low-N supply. These results indicated that the N-efficient new-type B. napus D4-15 possessed excellent adaptability to low-N stress, which may be attributed to the highly introgressed exotic subgenomic components from B. rapa and B. carinata, suggesting the possibility of identifying high-nutrient-efficiency germplasm from inter-specific hybrids.
A porous composite formed of hollow graphene spheres with opens in them and amorphous carbon containing nitrogen and oxygenated groups has been fabricated by annealing the mixture of nanodiamond and polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Electrochemical tests on the electrode made of this material show that it may be a promising electrode material for supercapacitors. The relatively high capacitance is mainly attributed to the small inner electrical resistance, the huge specific surface area and the remaining nitrogen and oxygenated groups from the PAN.