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The Age-Period-Cohort-Improvement (APCI) model is a new addition to the canon of mortality forecasting models. It was introduced by Continuous Mortality Investigation as a means of parameterising a deterministic targeting model for forecasting, but this paper shows how it can be implemented as a fully stochastic model. We demonstrate a number of interesting features about the APCI model, including which parameters to smooth and how much better the model fits to the data compared to some other, related models. However, this better fit also sometimes results in higher value-at-risk (VaR)-style capital requirements for insurers, and we explore why this is by looking at the density of the VaR simulations.
Investigations into an outbreak of foodborne disease attempt to identify the source of illness as quickly as possible. Population-based reference values for food consumption can assist in investigation by providing comparison data for hypothesis generation and also strengthening the evidence associated with a food product through hypothesis testing. In 2014–2015 a national phone survey was conducted in Canada to collect data on food consumption patterns using a 3- or 7-day recall period. The resulting food consumption values over the two recall periods were compared. The majority of food products did not show a significant difference in the consumption over 3 days and 7 days. However, comparison of reference values from the 3-day recall period to data from an investigation into a Salmonella Infantis outbreak was shown to support the conclusion that chicken was the source of the outbreak whereas the reference values from a 7-day recall did not support this finding. Reference values from multiple recall periods can assist in the hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing phase of foodborne outbreak investigations.
Fe deficiency is relatively common in pregnancy and has both short- and long-term consequences. However, little is known about the effect on the metabolism of other micronutrients. A total of fifty-four female rats were fed control (50 mg Fe/kg) or Fe-deficient diets (7·5 mg/kg) before and during pregnancy. Maternal liver, placenta and fetal liver were collected at day 21 of pregnancy for Cu and Zn analysis and to measure expression of the major genes of Cu and Zn metabolism. Cu levels increased in the maternal liver (P=0·002) and placenta (P=0·018) of Fe-deficient rats. Zn increased (P<0·0001) and Cu decreased (P=0·006) in the fetal liver. Hepatic expression of the Cu chaperones antioxidant 1 Cu chaperone (P=0·042) and cytochrome c oxidase Cu chaperone (COX17, P=0·020) decreased in the Fe-deficient dams, while the expression of the genes of Zn metabolism was unaltered. In the placenta, Fe deficiency reduced the expression of the chaperone for superoxide dismutase 1, Cu chaperone for superoxide dismutase (P=0·030), ceruloplasmin (P=0·042) and Zn transport genes, ZRT/IRT-like protein 4 (ZIP4, P=0·047) and Zn transporter 1 (ZnT1, P=0·012). In fetal liver, Fe deficiency increased COX17 (P=0·020), ZRT/IRT-like protein 14 (P=0·036) and ZnT1 (P=0·0003) and decreased ZIP4 (P=0·004). The results demonstrate that Fe deficiency during pregnancy has opposite effects on Cu and Zn levels in the fetal liver. This may, in turn, alter metabolism of these nutrients, with consequences for development in the fetus and the neonate.