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This paper explores dependencies between operational risks and between operational risks and other risks such as market, credit and insurance risk. The paper starts by setting the regulatory context and then goes into practical aspects of operational risk dependencies. Next, methods of modelling operational risk dependencies are considered with a simulation study exploring the sensitivity of diversification benefits arising from dependency models. The following two sections consider how correlation assumptions may be set, highlighting some generic dependencies between operational risks and with non-operational risks to assist in the assessment of dependencies and correlation assumptions. Supplementary appendices provide further detail on generic dependencies as well as a case study of how business models can lead to operational risks interacting with other risks. Finally, the paper finishes with a literature review of operational risk dependency papers including correlation studies and benchmark reports.
To test the feasibility of using telehealth to support antimicrobial stewardship at Veterans Affairs medical centers (VAMCs) that have limited access to infectious disease-trained specialists.
A prospective quasi-experimental pilot study.
Two rural VAMCs with acute-care and long-term care units.
At each intervention site, medical providers, pharmacists, infection preventionists, staff nurses, and off-site infectious disease physicians formed a videoconference antimicrobial stewardship team (VAST) that met weekly to discuss cases and antimicrobial stewardship-related education.
Descriptive measures included fidelity of implementation, number of cases discussed, infectious syndromes, types of recommendations, and acceptance rate of recommendations made by the VAST. Qualitative results stemmed from semi-structured interviews with VAST participants at the intervention sites.
Each site adapted the VAST to suit their local needs. On average, sites A and B discussed 3.5 and 3.1 cases per session, respectively. At site A, 98 of 140 cases (70%) were from the acute-care units; at site B, 59 of 119 cases (50%) were from the acute-care units. The most common clinical syndrome discussed was pneumonia or respiratory syndrome (41% and 35% for sites A and B, respectively). Providers implemented most VAST recommendations, with an acceptance rate of 73% (186 of 256 recommendations) and 65% (99 of 153 recommendations) at sites A and B, respectively. Qualitative results based on 24 interviews revealed that participants valued the multidisciplinary aspects of the VAST sessions and felt that it improved their antimicrobial stewardship efforts and patient care.
This pilot study has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using telehealth to support antimicrobial stewardship at rural VAMCs with limited access to local infectious disease expertise.
In September 2016, an imported case of measles in Edinburgh in a university student resulted in a further 17 confirmed cases during October and November 2016. All cases were genotype D8 and were associated with a virus strain most commonly seen in South East Asia. Twelve of the 18 cases were staff or students at a university in Edinburgh and 17 cases had incomplete or unknown measles mumps rubella (MMR) vaccination status. The public health response included mass follow-up of all identified contacts, widespread communications throughout universities in Edinburgh and prompt vaccination clinics at affected campuses. Imported cases of measles pose a significant risk to university student cohorts who may be undervaccinated, include a large number of international students and have a highly mobile population. Public health departments should work closely with universities to promote MMR uptake and put in place mass vaccination plans to prevent rapidly spreading measles outbreaks in higher educational settings in future.
This paper seeks to establish good practice in setting inputs for operational risk models for banks, insurers and other financial service firms. It reviews Basel, Solvency II and other regulatory requirements as well as publicly available literature on operational risk modelling. It recommends a combination of historic loss data and scenario analysis for modelling of individual risks, setting out issues with these data, and outlining good practice for loss data collection and scenario analysis. It recommends the use of expert judgement for setting correlations, and addresses information requirements for risk mitigation allowances and capital allocation, before briefly covering Bayesian network methods for modelling operational risks.
The Cycadales are a group of significant global conservation concern and have the highest extinction risk of all seed plants. Understanding the synchronisation of reproductive phenology of Cycadales may be useful for conservation by enabling the targeting of pollen and seed collection from wild populations and identifying the window of fertilisation to aid in the cultivation of Cycadales. Phenological data for 11 species of Zamia were gathered from herbarium specimens. Four phenological characters were coded with monthly character states. DNA was isolated and sequenced for 26S, CAB, NEEDLY, matK and rbcL, and a simultaneous phylogenetic analysis of phenology and DNA sequence data was carried out. Three major clades were recovered: a Caribbean clade, a Central American clade and a South American clade. Eight species showed statistically significant synchronisation in microsporangiate and ovulate phenological phases, indicating the time of fertilisation. Close reproductive synchronisation was consistently observed throughout the Caribbean clade (statistically significant in four of five species) but was less consistent in the Central American clade (statistically significant in one of two species) and South American clade (statistically significant in three of four species). Ultimately, phenology is shown to be a potential driver of speciation in some clades of Zamia and in others to be a potential barrier to hybridisation.
Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with ‘stamping-out’ of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the ‘stamping-out’ strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.
Understanding the spatial distribution of disease is critical for effective disease control. Where formal address networks do not exist, tracking spatial patterns of clinical disease is difficult. Geolocation strategies were tested at rural health facilities in western Kenya. Methods included geocoding residence by head of compound, participatory mapping and recording the self-reported nearest landmark. Geocoding was able to locate 72·9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67·7–77·6] of individuals to within 250 m of the true compound location. The participatory mapping exercise was able to correctly locate 82·0% of compounds (95% CI 78·9–84·8) to a 2 × 2·5 km area with a 500 m buffer. The self-reported nearest landmark was able to locate 78·1% (95% CI 73·8–82·1) of compounds to the correct catchment area. These strategies tested provide options for quickly obtaining spatial information on individuals presenting at health facilities.
The present study examined the impact of breakfast and exercise on postprandial metabolism, appetite and macronutrient balance. A sample of twelve (blood variables n 11) physically active males completed four trials in a randomised, crossover design comprising a continued overnight fast followed by: (1) rest without breakfast (FR); (2) exercise without breakfast (FE); (3) breakfast consumption (1859 kJ) followed by rest (BR); (4) breakfast consumption followed by exercise (BE). Exercise was continuous, moderate-intensity running (expending approximately 2·9 MJ of energy). The equivalent time was spent sitting during resting trials. A test drink (1500 kJ) was ingested on all trials followed 90 min later by an ad libitum lunch. The difference between the BR and FR trials in blood glucose time-averaged AUC following test drink consumption approached significance (BR: 4·33 (sem 0·14) v. FR: 4·75 (sem 0·16) mmol/l; P= 0·08); but it was not different between FR and FE (FE: 4·77 (sem 0·14) mmol/l; P= 0·65); and was greater in BE (BE: 4·97 (sem 0·13) mmol/l) v. BR (P= 0·012). Appetite following the test drink was reduced in BR v. FR (P= 0·006) and in BE v. FE (P= 0·029). Following lunch, the most positive energy balance was observed in BR and least positive in FE. Regardless of breakfast, acute exercise produced a less positive energy balance following ad libitum lunch consumption. Energy and fat balance is further reduced with breakfast omission. Breakfast improved the overall appetite responses to foods consumed later in the day, but abrogated the appetite-suppressive effect of exercise.
The Parkes pulsar data archive currently provides access to 144044 data files obtained from observations carried out at the Parkes observatory since the year 1991. Around 105 files are from surveys of the sky, the remainder are observations of 775 individual pulsars and their corresponding calibration signals. Survey observations are included from the Parkes 70 cm and the Swinburne Intermediate Latitude surveys. Individual pulsar observations are included from young pulsar timing projects, the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array and from the PULSE@Parkes outreach program. The data files and access methods are compatible with Virtual Observatory protocols. This paper describes the data currently stored in the archive and presents ways in which these data can be searched and downloaded.
To evaluate the use of inpatient pharmacy and administrative data to detect surgical site infections (SSIs) following hysterectomy and colorectal and vascular surgery.
Retrospective cohort study.
Five hospitals affiliated with academic medical centers.
Adults who underwent abdominal or vaginal hysterectomy, colorectal surgery, or vascular surgery procedures between July 1, 2003, and June 30, 2005.
We reviewed the medical records of weighted, random samples drawn from 3,079 abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy, 4,748 colorectal surgery, and 3,332 vascular surgery procedures. We compared routine surveillance with screening of inpatient pharmacy data and diagnosis codes and then performed medical record review to confirm SSI status.
Medical records from 823 hysterectomy, 736 colorectal surgery, and 680 vascular surgery procedures were reviewed. SSI rates determined by antimicrobial- and/or diagnosis code-based screening followed by medical record review (enhanced surveillance) were substantially higher than rates determined by routine surveillance (4.3% [95% confidence interval, 3.6%—5.1%] vs 2.7% for hysterectomies, 7.1% [95% confidence interval, 6.7%–8.2%] vs 2.0% for colorectal procedures, and 2.3% [95% confidence interval, 1.9%–2.9%] vs 1.4% for vascular procedures). Enhanced surveillance had substantially higher sensitivity than did routine surveillance to detect SSI (92% vs 59% for hysterectomies, 88% vs 22% for colorectal procedures, and 72% vs 43% for vascular procedures). A review of medical records confirmed SSI for 31% of hysterectomies, 20% of colorectal procedures, and 31% of vascular procedures that met the enhanced screening criteria.
Antimicrobial- and diagnosis code-based screening may be a useful method for enhancing and streamlining SSI surveillance for a variety of surgical procedures, including those procedures targeted by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Stigma and discrimination related to mental-health problems impacts negatively on people's quality of life, help seeking behaviour and recovery trajectories. To date, the experience of discrimination by people with mental-health problems has not been systematically explored in the Republic of Ireland. This study aimed to explore the experience impact of discrimination as a consequence of being identified with a mental-health problem.
Transcripts of semi-structured interviews with 30 people about their experience of discrimination were subject to thematic analysis and presented in summary form.
People volunteered accounts of discrimination which clustered around employment, personal relationships, business and finance, and health care. Common experiences included being discounted or discredited, being mocked or shunned and being inhibited or constrained by oneself and others.
Qualitative research of this type may serve to illustrate the complexity of discrimination and the processes whereby stigma is internalised and may shape behaviour. Such an understanding may assist health practitioners reduce stigma, and identify and remediate the impact of discrimination.
To evaluate the use of routinely collected electronic health data in Medicare claims to identify surgical site infections (SSIs) following hip arthroplasty, knee arthroplasty, and vascular surgery.
Retrospective cohort study.
Four academic hospitals that perform prospective SSI surveillance.
We developed lists of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, and Current Procedural Terminology diagnosis and procedure codes to identify potential SSIs. We then screened for these codes in Medicare claims submitted by each hospital on patients older than 65 years of age who had undergone 1 of the study procedures during 2007. Each site reviewed medical records of patients identified by either claims codes or traditional infection control surveillance to confirm SSI using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/ National Healthcare Safety Network criteria. We assessed the performance of both methods against all chart-confirmed SSIs identified by either method.
Claims-based surveillance detected 1.8–4.7-fold more SSIs than traditional surveillance, including detection of all previously identified cases. For hip and vascular surgery, there was a 5-fold and 1.6-fold increase in detection of deep and organ/space infections, respectively, with no increased detection of deep and organ/space infections following knee surgery. Use of claims to trigger chart review led to confirmation of SSI in 1 out of 3 charts for hip arthroplasty, 1 out of 5 charts for knee arthroplasty, and 1 out of 2 charts for vascular surgery.
Claims-based SSI surveillance markedly increased the number of SSIs detected following hip arthroplasty, knee arthroplasty, and vascular surgery. It deserves consideration as a more effective approach to target chart reviews for identifying SSIs.
The aim of the study was to assess the experiences of discrimination as reported by people with mental health problems and to explore the impact of hospitalisation.
306 people with mental health problems provided sociodemographic data and data on discrimination using the discrimination and stigma scale version 12 (DISC-12) with the domains negative experienced discrimination, anticipated discrimination, overcoming stigma and discrimination, and positive experienced discrimination. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the impact of hospitalisation on discrimination, controlled for age, gender, education, employment, diagnosis and having been prescribed medication.
Hospitalisation had a major impact on negative discrimination: People were more likely to be treated unfairly in making or keeping friends, in marriage or divorce, by people in their neighbourhood, in social life, by mental health staff and in terms of privacy, if they had been hospitalised. They were also more likely to be avoided or shunned by people who knew about the mental health problem. People with a history of hospitalisation also reported more anticipated discrimination: They had stopped themselves more often from having a close personal relationship and concealed their mental health problem from others more often than those without a history of hospitalisation. However, people who had been hospitalised also experienced more positive discrimination in terms of being treated more positively in getting welfare benefits or disability pensions and in housing.
Findings suggest that treatment in hospital contributed to a higher extent to experienced discrimination than treatment in the community.