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This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval.
Despite aspirations to be a world-class national curriculum, the Australian Curriculum (AC) has been criticised as ‘manifestly deficient’ (Australian Government Department of Education and Training, 2014 p. 5) as an inclusive curriculum, failing to meet the needs of all students with disabilities (SWD) and their teachers. There is a need for research into the daily attempts of educators to navigate the tension between a ‘top-down’ system-wide curriculum and a ‘bottom-up’ regard for individual student needs, with a view to informing both policy and practice. This article is the first of two research papers in which we report the findings from a national online Research in Special Education (RISE) Australian Curriculum Survey of special educators in special schools, classes, and units regarding their experience using the AC to plan for and teach SWD. Survey results indicated (a) inconsistent use of the AC as the primary basis for developing learning objectives and designing learning experiences, (b) infrequent use of the achievement standards to support assessment and reporting, and (c) considerable supplementation of the AC from other resources when educating SWD. Overall, participants expressed a lack of confidence in translating the AC framework into a meaningful curriculum for SWD. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.
In September 2015, an outbreak of Escherichia coli Phage Type 32 with an indistinguishable multi locus variable number tandem repeat analysis profile was identified in Scotland. Twelve cases were identified; nine primary cases, two secondary and one asymptomatic case. Extensive food history investigations identified venison products containing wild venison produced by a single food business operator as the most likely source of the outbreak. Of the nine primary cases, eight had consumed venison products, and one case had not eaten venison themselves but had handled and cooked raw venison in the household. This was the first reported outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) linked to venison products in the UK, and was also notable due to the implicated products being commercially produced and widely distributed. In contrast, previous venison outbreaks reported from other countries have tended to be smaller and related to individually prepared carcases. The outbreak has highlighted some important knowledge gaps in relation to STEC in venison that are currently been investigated via a number of research studies.
Results are presented from our ongoing studies of Titan using ALMA during the period 2012-2015, including a confirmation of the previous detection of vinyl cyanide (C2H3CN), as well as the first spatial map for this species on Titan. Simultaneous mapping of HC3N, CH3CN and C2H5CN reveal characteristic abundance patterns for each species that provide insight into their individual photochemical lifetimes, and help inform our understanding of Titan’s unique, time-variable atmospheric chemistry and global circulation. A time-sequence of HC3N maps covering 38 months reveals a dramatic change in the distribution of this gas consistent with high-altitude photochemical production followed by advection towards the southern (winter) pole, combined with rapid loss in the north after Titan’s 2009 seasonal equinox. The 2015 C2H3CN and C2H5CN maps show abundance peaks in Titan’s southern hemisphere, similar to those observed for the short-lived HC3N molecule. The longer-lived CH3CN, on the other hand, remains more concentrated in the north.
One of the most conspicuous phenomena in the Arctic Is the fracture of sea ice. It is scarcely possible to travel far without seeing a variety of fracture forms, produced both by natural processes and by human activity.
At strain-rates below about 10−4 s−1, deformation is dominated by creep, but at higher strain-rates fracture is much more important. One of the reasons for this is the very low fracture toughness of ice. The movements of ice in contact with offshore structures often induce strain-rates well beyond the level at which fracture begins, and so offshore structures will often operate in the fracture regime, and it is fracture processes which will determine the design loads. We consider the different modes of repeated fracture that will occur, and classify them into distinct mechanisms of crushing, spalling, and radial and circumferential cracking. Experimental and field observations are plotted on a deformation mode map. A theoretical treatment of radial cracking confirms that very low loads can propagate cracks to long distances; these loads are small by comparison with those calculated from theoretical models that treat ice as a plastically-deforming continuum.
Tree rings from a section of Prumnopitys taxifolia (matai) covering the period ad 1335–1745 have been radiocarbon dated and used to generate a 14C calibration curve for southern hemisphere wood. Comparison of this curve with calibration data for northern hemisphere wood does not show a systematic difference between 14C ages measured in the northern and southern hemispheres. A floating chronology covering 270 yr and terminating at the last Taupo (New Zealand) eruption, derived from a sequence of 10-yr samples of tree rings from Phyllocladus trichomanoides (celery pine, or tanekaha), is also consistent with the absence of a systematic north-south difference, and together with the matai data, fixes the date of the Taupo eruption at ad 232 ± 15.
The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland and University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand radiocarbon laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus patrea) and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) from Great Britain and New Zealand, respectively. The results show a real atmospheric offset of 3.4 ± 0.6% (27.2 ± 4.7 14C yr) between the two locations for the interval ad 1725 to ad 1885, with the Southern Hemisphere being depleted in l4C. This result is less than the value currently used to correct Southern Hemisphere calibrations, possibly indicating a gradient in Δ14C within the Southern Hemisphere.
We have conducted a series of radiocarbon measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated wood from both hemispheres, spanning 1000 years (McCormac et al. 1998; Hogg et al. this issue). Using the data presented in Hogg et al., we show that during the period AD 950–1850 the 14C offset between the hemispheres is not constant, but varies periodically (∼130 yr periodicity) with amplitudes varying between 1 and 10% (i.e. 8–80 yr), with a consequent effect on the 14C calibration of material from the Southern Hemisphere. A large increase in the offset occurs between AD 1245 and 1355. In this paper, we present a Southern Hemisphere high-precision calibration data set (SHCal02) that comprises measurements from New Zealand, Chile, and South Africa. This data, and a new value of 41 ± 14 yr for correction of the IntCal98 data for the period outside the range given here, is proposed for use in calibrating Southern Hemisphere 14C dates.
The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand and The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland radiocarbon dating laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus petraea) from Great Britain and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) and silver pine (Lagarostrobos colensoi) from New Zealand. The results show an average hemispheric offset over the 900 yr of measurement of 40 ± 13 yr. This value is not constant but varies with a periodicity of about 130 yr. The Northern Hemisphere measurements confirm the validity of the Pearson et al. (1986) calibration dataset.
The Southern Hemisphere SHCal04 radiocarbon calibration curve has been updated with the addition of new data sets extending measurements to 2145 cal BP and including the ANSTO Younger Dryas Huon pine data set. Outside the range of measured data, the curve is based upon the ern Hemisphere data sets as presented in IntCal13, with an interhemispheric offset averaging 43 ± 23 yr modeled by an autoregressive process to represent the short-term correlations in the offset.
We wanted to present our experience with the extended endoscopic approach to clival pathology, focusing on cerebrospinal fluid leak and reconstruction challenges.
We examined a consecutive series of 37 patients undergoing the extended endoscopic approach for skull base tumours, 9 patients with clival pathology. Patients were examined for the incidence of post-operative cerebrospinal fluid leak in relation to tumour pathology, location, size, reconstruction and lumbar drain.
The overall incidence of post-operative cerebrospinal fluid leak was 10.8 per cent. Seventy-five per cent of patients who had a post-operative cerebrospinal fluid leak underwent a transclival approach (p < 0.05). All patients with clival pathology who underwent an intradural dissection had a post-operative cerebrospinal fluid leak (p < 0.05).
Post-operative cerebrospinal fluid leak rates after the extended endoscopic approach have improved significantly after advancements including the vascularised nasoseptal flap. Despite this, transclival approaches continue to pose much difficulty. Further investigation is necessary to develop technical improvements that can meet the unique challenges associated with this region.
Background: Clinical perfectionism is a risk and maintaining factor for anxiety disorders, depression and eating disorders. Aims: The aim was to examine the psychometric properties of the 12-item Clinical Perfectionism Questionnaire (CPQ). Method: The research involved two samples. Study 1 comprised a nonclinical sample (n = 206) recruited via the internet. Study 2 comprised individuals in treatment for an eating disorder (n = 129) and a community sample (n = 80). Results: Study 1 factor analysis results indicated a two-factor structure. The CPQ had strong correlations with measures of perfectionism and psychopathology, acceptable internal consistency, and discriminative and incremental validity. The results of Study 2 suggested the same two-factor structure, acceptable internal consistency, and construct validity, with the CPQ discriminating between the eating disorder and control groups. Readability was assessed as a US grade 4 reading level (student age range 9–10 years). Conclusions: The findings provide evidence for the reliability and validity of the CPQ in a clinical eating disorder and two separate community samples. Although further research is required the CPQ has promising evidence as a reliable and valid measure of clinical perfectionism.
Co-morbid major depression occurs in approximately 10% of people suffering from a chronic medical condition such as cancer. Systematic integrated management that includes both identification and treatment has been advocated. However, we lack information on the cost-effectiveness of this combined approach, as published evaluations have focused solely on the systematic (collaborative care) treatment stage. We therefore aimed to use the best available evidence to estimate the cost-effectiveness of systematic integrated management (both identification and treatment) compared with usual practice, for patients attending specialist cancer clinics.
We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytic model structured to reflect both the identification and treatment processes. Evidence was taken from reviews of relevant clinical trials and from observational studies, together with data from a large depression screening service. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were undertaken to determine the effects of variations in depression incidence rates, time horizons and patient characteristics.
Systematic integrated depression management generated more costs than usual practice, but also more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £11 765 per QALY. This finding was robust to tests of uncertainty and variation in key model parameters.
Systematic integrated management of co-morbid major depression in cancer patients is likely to be cost-effective at widely accepted threshold values and may be a better way of generating QALYs for cancer patients than some existing medical and surgical treatments. It could usefully be applied to other chronic medical conditions.
Exclusion of children with presumptive Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) from childcare facilities until negative stool specimens are obtained is routine practice that disrupts families. We estimated the shedding and exclusion duration and transmission risk in such facilities. The study population comprised 225 children aged <6 years attending 201 childcare facilities in England with microbiologically confirmed VTEC in 2010–2011. We estimated the interval from onset to first negative specimen, and identified transmission events with secondary cases linked to facilities. The median duration of shedding was 31 days, and median period of exclusion was 39·5 days. Cases attending facilities while shedding VTEC did so for a median of 2 days before exclusion. Secondary cases occurred in 6/83 facilities (7%) attended by infectious cases. Despite evidence of VTEC shedding at facilities, transmission is relatively low. Revised control guidelines could consider supervised return for prolonged asymptomatic shedders.
Two pregnancy cohorts were used to investigate the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes within the insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-axis and antenatal and postnatal growth from birth to adolescence. Longitudinal analyses were conducted in the Raine pregnancy cohort (n = 1162) using repeated measures of fetal head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) from 18 to 38 weeks gestation and eight measures of postnatal height and weight (1–17 years). Replications of significant associations up to birth were undertaken in the Generation R Study (n = 2642). Of the SNPs within the IGF-axis genes, 40% (n = 58) were associated with measures of antenatal growth (P ⩽ 0.05). The majority of these SNPs were in receptors; IGF-1R (23%; n = 34) and IGF-2R (13%; n = 9). Fifteen SNPs were associated with antenatal growth (either AC or HC or FL) in Raine (P ⩽ 0.005): five of which remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing. Four of these replicated in Generation R. Associations were identified between 38% (n = 55) of the IGF-axis SNPs and postnatal height and weight; 21% in IGF-1R (n = 31) and 9% in IGF-2R (n = 13). Twenty-six SNPs were significantly associated with both antenatal and postnatal growth; 17 with discordant effects and nine with concordant effects. Genetic variants in the IGF-axis appear to play a significant role in antenatal and postnatal growth. Further replication and new analytic methods are required in order to better understand this key metabolic pathway integrating biologic knowledge about the interaction between IGF-axis components.
Human campylobacteriosis exhibits a distinctive seasonality in temperate regions. This paper aims to identify the origins of this seasonality. Clinical isolates [typed by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST)] and epidemiological data were collected from Scotland. Young rural children were found to have an increased burden of disease in the late spring due to strains of non-chicken origin (e.g. ruminant and wild bird strains from environmental sources). In contrast the adult population had an extended summer peak associated with chicken strains. Travel abroad and UK mainland travel were associated with up to 17% and 18% of cases, respectively. International strains were associated with chicken, had a higher diversity than indigenous strains and a different spectrum of MLST types representative of these countries. Integrating empirical epidemiology and molecular subtyping can successfully elucidate the seasonal components of human campylobacteriosis. The findings will enable public health officials to focus strategies to reduce the disease burden.
Introduction of pneumococcal polysaccharide (PPV23) and conjugate vaccine (PCV7) programmes were expected to change the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia in the UK. We describe the epidemiology of IPD and hospitalization with pneumonia using high-quality surveillance data over an 8-year period, 2002–2009. Although PPV23 uptake increased from 49% to 70% and PCV7 uptake reached 98% by 2009, the overall incidence of IPD increased from 11·8/100 000 to 16·4/100 000 (P=0·13), and the incidence of hospitalization with pneumonia increased from 143/100 000 to 207/100 000 (P<0·001). Although a reduction in the proportion of IPD caused by PCV7 serotypes was observed, concurrent increases in PPV23 and non-vaccine serotype IPD contributed to an increased IPD burden overall. Marked inequalities in the geographical distribution of disease were observed. Existing vaccination programmes have, so far, not been sufficient to address an increasing burden of pneumococcal disease in our locality.
The electrical properties associated with diamond charged particle- and photo-detectors were studied using charged particle-induced conductivity (CPIC) and photo-induced conductivity (PIC). The collection distance d, the product of the excess carrier mobility μ excess carrier lifetime T and electric field E, was used to characterize the diamonds. X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, photoluminescence, SEM and TEM were performed on CVD diamond detectors to investigate the limitations of the electrical properties. Correlations were found between the electrical properties and the material characterizations.
Two complementary techniques are used to study the electrical transport properties related to the use of diamonds as materials for ionizing radiation detectors. Transient photoconductivity using soft x-rays is used to probe the first few microns of the material, while ionizing particle-excited conductivity is used to probe the entire bulk of the material (1 millimeter). Both techniques measure the mean drift distance of free carriers, or the collection distance d. In addition, transient photoconductivity is able to extract the lifetimes and mobilities of the excited carriers. The collection distance measured by the two methods are in agreement, suggesting the material is homogeneous. At an applied field of 10 kV/cm, d is 25 to 30 microns, and, up to a field of 25 kV/cm, d has not saturated. The lifetime varies between 100 and 600 ps, and the mobility varies between 1000 and 4000 cm2/V-s, the range due to natural variations from sample to sample. The primary defects limiting the lifetime are believed to be nitrogen impurities and dislocations.
Diamond is suitable for use as an ionizing particle detector for high rate, high radiation, and/or chemically harsh environments. A sampling calorimeter, a detector measuring the total energy of an incident particle, consisting of 20 alternating layers of diamond and tungsten has been constructed and tested. The diamond for the detector layers was grown by chemical vapor deposition with an averaged thickness of 500 μm. The active area of each layer was 3×3 cm2 with ohmic contacts on opposite faces forming a metal-insulator-metal structure. The calorimeter was tested with electrons of energies up to 5.0 GeV. The response of the diamond/tungsten calorimeter was found to be linear as a function of incident energy. A direct comparison of diamond/tungsten and silicon/tungsten calorimeters was made.