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Violence risk assessment tools are increasingly used within criminal justice and forensic psychiatry, however there is little relevant, reliable and unbiased data regarding their predictive accuracy. We argue that such data are needed to (i) prevent excessive reliance on risk assessment scores, (ii) allow matching of different risk assessment tools to different contexts of application, (iii) protect against problematic forms of discrimination and stigmatisation, and (iv) ensure that contentious demographic variables are not prematurely removed from risk assessment tools.
Recent speleological surveys of meltwater drainage systems in cold and polythermal glaciers have documented dynamic englacial and in some cases subglacial conduits formed by the ‘cut-and-closure’ mechanism. Investigations of the spatial distribution of such conduits often require a combination of different methods. Here, we studied the englacial drainage system in the cold glacier Longyearbreen, Svalbard by combining speleological exploration of a 478 m long meltwater conduit with a high-resolution ground penetrating radar (GPR) survey with two different centre-frequencies (25 and 100 MHz). The results yielded a 3-D documentation of the present englacial drainage system. The study shows that the overall form of englacial conduits can be detected from velocity−depth converted GPR data, and that the 3-D model can facilitate a method to pinpoint the reflections in a radargram corresponding with the englacial drainage system, although fine detail cannot be resolved. Visible reflections approximately parallel to the mapped englacial water drainage system likely result from sediment incorporated in the ice or from abandoned parts of the englacial drainage system.
Analysis of a recent surge of Morsnevbreen, Svalbard, is used to test predictions of the enthalpy balance theory of surging. High-resolution time series of velocities, ice thickness and crevasse distribution allow key elements of the enthalpy (internal energy) budget to be quantified for different stages of the surge cycle. During quiescence (1936–1990), velocities were very low, and geothermal heat slowly built-up enthalpy at the bed. Measurable mass transfer and frictional heating began in 1990–2010, then positive frictional heating-velocity feedbacks caused gradual acceleration from 2010 to 2015. Rapid acceleration occurred in summer 2016, when extensive crevassing and positive air temperatures allowed significant surface to bed drainage. The surge front reached the terminus in October 2016, coincident with a drop in velocities. Ice plumes in the fjord are interpreted as discharge of large volumes of supercooled water from the bed. Surge termination was prolonged, however, indicating persistence of an inefficient drainage system. The observations closely match predictions of the theory, particularly build-up of enthalpy from geothermal and frictional heat, and surface meltwater, and the concomitant changes in ice-surface elevation and velocity. Additional characteristics of the surge reflect spatial processes not represented in the model, but can be explained with respect to enthalpy gradients.
We present a highly detailed study of calving dynamics at Tunabreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard. A time-lapse camera was trained on the terminus and programmed to capture images every 3 seconds over a 28-hour period in August 2015, producing a highly detailed record of 34 117 images from which 358 individual calving events were distinguished. Calving activity is characterised by frequent events (12.8 events h−1) that are small relative to the spectrum of calving events observed, demonstrating the prevalence of small-scale calving mechanisms. Five calving styles were observed, with a high proportion of calving events (82%) originating at, or above, the waterline. The tidal cycle plays a key role in the timing of calving events, with 68% occurring on the falling limb of the tide. Calving activity is concentrated where meltwater plumes surface at the glacier front, and a ~ 5 m undercut at the base of the glacier suggests that meltwater plumes encourage melt-under-cutting. We conclude that frontal ablation at Tunabreen may be paced by submarine melt rates, as suggested from similar observations at glaciers in Svalbard and Alaska. Using submarine melt rate to calculate frontal ablation would greatly simplify estimations of tidewater glacier losses in prognostic models.
Theoretical models and observations suggest that primordial Stellar Black Holes (Pop-III-BHs) were prolifically formed in HMXBs, which are powerful relativistic jet sources of synchrotron radiation called Microquasars (MQs).
Large populations of BH-HMXB-MQs at cosmic dawn produce a smooth synchrotron cosmic radio background (CRB) that could account for the excess amplitude of atomic hydrogen absorption at z∼17, recently reported by EDGES.
BH-HMXB-MQs at cosmic dawn precede supernovae, neutron stars and dust. BH-HMXB-MQs promptly inject into the IGM hard X-rays and relativistic jets, which overtake the slowly expanding HII regions ionized by progenitor Pop-III stars, heating and partially ionizing the IGM over larger distance scales.
BH-HMXBs are channels for the formation of Binary-Black-Holes (BBHs). The large masses of BBHs detected by gravitational waves, relative to the masses of BHs detected by X-rays, and the high rates of BBH-mergers, are consistent with high formation rates of BH-HMXBs and BBHs in the early universe.
. We analyzed a 40-year set of multicolor photometry and a 15-year set of synoptic monitoring of SS 433 along with fragmentary spectral and radio data. This system contains a neutron star and an A3–A7 I giant. The system is found to be either close, in contact, or it has a common envelope from time to time. The A-type giant is now in transition to the dynamical mass transfer.
The X-ray binary Her X-1 consists of an accreting neutron star and the optical companion HZ Her. The 35-day X-ray variability of this system is known since its discovery in 1972 by the UHURU satellite and is believed to be caused by forced precession of the warped accretion disk tilted to the orbital plane. We argue that the observed features of the optical variability of HZ Her can be explained by free precession of the neutron star with a period close to that of the forced disk precession. The model parameters include a) the intensity (power) of the stream of matter flowing out of the optical star; b) the X-ray luminosity of the neutron star; c) the optical flux of the accretion disk; d) the X-ray irradiation pattern on the donor star; e) the tilt of the inner and outer edge of the accretion disk. A possible synchronization mechanism based on the coupling between the neutron star free precession and the dynamical action of non-stationary gas streams is discussed shortly.
BACKGROUND: IGTS is a rare phenomenon of paradoxical germ cell tumor (GCT) growth during or following treatment despite normalization of tumor markers. We sought to evaluate the frequency, clinical characteristics and outcome of IGTS in patients in 21 North-American and Australian institutions. METHODS: Patients with IGTS diagnosed from 2000-2017 were retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: Out of 739 GCT diagnoses, IGTS was identified in 33 patients (4.5%). IGTS occurred in 9/191 (4.7%) mixed-malignant GCTs, 4/22 (18.2%) immature teratomas (ITs), 3/472 (0.6%) germinomas/germinomas with mature teratoma, and in 17 secreting non-biopsied tumours. Median age at GCT diagnosis was 10.9 years (range 1.8-19.4). Male gender (84%) and pineal location (88%) predominated. Of 27 patients with elevated markers, median serum AFP and Beta-HCG were 70 ng/mL (range 9.2-932) and 44 IU/L (range 4.2-493), respectively. IGTS occurred at a median time of 2 months (range 0.5-32) from diagnosis, during chemotherapy in 85%, radiation in 3%, and after treatment completion in 12%. Surgical resection was attempted in all, leading to gross total resection in 76%. Most patients (79%) resumed GCT chemotherapy/radiation after surgery. At a median follow-up of 5.3 years (range 0.3-12), all but 2 patients are alive (1 succumbed to progressive disease, 1 to malignant transformation of GCT). CONCLUSION: IGTS occurred in less than 5% of patients with GCT and most commonly after initiation of chemotherapy. IGTS was more common in patients with IT-only on biopsy than with mixed-malignant GCT. Surgical resection is a principal treatment modality. Survival outcomes for patients who developed IGTS are favourable.
In August 2015, Public Health England detected an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotype O157:H7 caused by contaminated salad leaves in a mixed leaf prepacked salad product from a national retailer. The implicated leaves were cultivated at five different farms and the zoonotic source of the outbreak strain was not determined. In March 2016, additional isolates from new cases were identified that shared a recent common ancestor with the outbreak strain. A case–case study involving the cases identified in 2016 revealed that ovine exposures were associated with illness (n = 16; AOR 8·24; 95% CI 1·55–39·74). By mapping the recent movement of sheep and lambs across the United Kingdom, epidemiological links were established between the cases reporting ovine exposures. Given the close phylogenetic relationship between the outbreak strain and the isolates from cases with ovine exposures, it is plausible that ovine faeces may have contaminated the salad leaves via untreated irrigation water or run-off from fields nearby. Timely and targeted veterinary and environmental sampling should be considered during foodborne outbreaks of STEC, particularly where ready to eat vegetables and salads are implicated.
We evaluate the variability in basal friction for Kronebreen, Svalbard, a fast-flowing tidewater glacier. We invert 3 years (2013–15) of surface velocities at high temporal resolution (generally 11 days), to estimate the changing basal properties of the glacier. Our results suggest that sliding behaviour of Kronebreen within a year is primarily influenced by changes in water input patterns during the meltwater season and basal friction is highly variable from a year to another. At present, models usually employ parameterisations to encompass the complex physics of glacier sliding by mathematically simulate their net effect. For such ice masses with strong seasonal variations of surface melt, the spatio-temporal patterns of basal friction imply that it is neither possible nor appropriate to use a parameterisation for bed friction that is fixed in space and/or time, at least in a timescale of a few years. Basal sliding may not only be governed by local processes such as basal topography or summer melt, but also be mediated by factors that vary over a larger distance and over a longer time period such as subglacial hydrology organisation, ice-thickness changes or calving front geometry.
The simple calving laws currently used in ice-sheet models do not adequately reflect the complexity and diversity of calving processes. To be effective, calving laws must be grounded in a sound understanding of how calving actually works. Here, we develop a new strategy for formulating calving laws, using (a) the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) to explicitly model fracture and calving processes, and (b) the continuum model Elmer/Ice to identify critical stress states associated with HiDEM calving events. A range of observed calving processes emerges spontaneously from HiDEM in response to variations in ice-front buoyancy and the size of subaqueous undercuts. Calving driven by buoyancy and melt under-cutting is under-predicted by existing calving laws, but we show that the location and magnitude of HiDEM calving events can be predicted in Elmer/Ice from characteristic stress patterns. Our results open the way to developing calving laws that properly reflect the diversity of calving processes, and provide a framework for a unified theory of the calving process continuum.
The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that members of this taxonomic group face across migratory flyways. Most threats are increasing in intensity, particularly in non-breeding areas, where habitat loss resulting from residential and commercial development, aquaculture, mining, transport, disturbance, problematic invasive species, pollution and climate change were regarded as having the greatest detrimental impact. Fewer threats (mining, disturbance, problematic native species and climate change) were identified as widely affecting breeding areas. Numeniini populations face the greatest number of non-breeding threats in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, especially those associated with coastal reclamation; related threats were also identified across the Central and Atlantic Americas, and East Atlantic flyways. Threats on the breeding grounds were greatest in Central and Atlantic Americas, East Atlantic and West Asian flyways. Three priority actions were associated with monitoring and research: to monitor breeding population trends (which for species breeding in remote areas may best be achieved through surveys at key non-breeding sites), to deploy tracking technologies to identify migratory connectivity, and to monitor land-cover change across breeding and non-breeding areas. Two priority actions were focused on conservation and policy responses: to identify and effectively protect key non-breeding sites across all flyways (particularly in the East Asian- Australasian Flyway), and to implement successful conservation interventions at a sufficient scale across human-dominated landscapes for species’ recovery to be achieved. If implemented urgently, these measures in combination have the potential to alter the current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species.
Hydraulic roughness exerts an important but poorly understood control on water pressure in subglacial conduits. Where relative roughness values are <5%, hydraulic roughness can be related to relative roughness using empirically-derived equations such as the Colebrook–White equation. General relationships between hydraulic roughness and relative roughness do not exist for relative roughness >5%. Here we report the first quantitative assessment of roughness heights and hydraulic diameters in a subglacial conduit. We measured roughness heights in a 125 m long section of a subglacial conduit using structure-from-motion to produce a digital surface model, and hand-measurements of the b-axis of rocks. We found roughness heights from 0.07 to 0.22 m and cross-sectional areas of 1–2 m2, resulting in relative roughness of 3–12% and >5% for most locations. A simple geometric model of varying conduit diameter shows that when the conduit is small relative roughness is >30% and has large variability. Our results suggest that parameterizations of conduit hydraulic roughness in subglacial hydrological models will remain challenging until hydraulic diameters exceed roughness heights by a factor of 20, or the conduit radius is >1 m for the roughness elements observed here.
The ablation areas of debris-covered glaciers typically consist of a complex mosaic of surface features with contrasting processes and rates of mass loss. This greatly complicates glacier response to climate change, and increases the uncertainty of predictive models. In this paper we present a series of high-resolution DEMs and repeat lake bathymetric surveys on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to study processes and patterns of mass loss on a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in unprecedented detail. Most mass loss occurs by melt below supraglacial debris, and melt and calving of ice cliffs (backwasting). Although ice cliffs cover only ~5% of the area of the lower tongue, they account for 40% of the ablation. The surface debris layer is subject to frequent re-distribution by slope processes, resulting in large spatial and temporal differences in debris-layer thickness, enhancing or inhibiting local ablation rates and encouraging continuous topographic inversion. A moraine-dammed lake on the lower glacier tongue (Spillway Lake) underwent a period of rapid expansion from 2001 to 2009, but later experienced a reduction of area and volume as a result of lake level lowering and sediment redistribution. Rapid lake growth will likely resume in the near future, and may eventually become up to 7 km long.
A meta-analysis on the effects of management and animal-based factors on the performance and feed efficiency of growing pigs can provide information on single factor and interaction effects absent in individual studies. This study analysed the effects of such factors on average daily gain (ADG), feed intake (FI) and feed conversion ratio (FCR) of grower and finisher pigs. The multivariate models identified significant effects of: (1) bedding (P<0.01), stage of growth (P<0.001) and the interaction bedding×lysine (P<0.001) on ADG. ADG was higher on straw compared with no bedding (710 v. 605 g/day). (2) FI was significantly affected by stage of growth (P<0.01), bedding (P<0.01), group composition (P<0.05), group size (P<0.01), feed CP content (P<0.01), ambient temperature (P<0.01) and the interaction between floor space and feed energy content (P<0.001). Pigs housed on straw had a lower FI in comparison with those without (1.44 v. 2.04 kg/day); a higher FI was seen for pigs separated by gender in comparison with mixed groups (2.05 v. 1.65 kg/day); FI had a negative linear relationship with group size, the CP content of the feed and ambient temperature. (3) Stage of growth (P<0.001), feed CP (P<0.001) and lysine content (P<0.001), ambient temperature (P<0.001) and feed crude fibre (CF) content (P<0.01) significantly affected FCR; there were no significant interactions between any factors on this trait. There was an improvement in FCR at higher ambient temperatures, increased feed CP and lysine content, but a deterioration of FCR at higher CF contents. For ADG, the interaction of bedding×lysine was caused by pigs housed without bedding (straw) having higher ADG when on a feed lower in lysine, whereas those with bedding had a higher ADG when on a feed higher in lysine. Interaction effects on FI were caused by animals with the least amount of floor space having a higher FI when given a feed with a low metabolisable energy (ME) content, in contrast to all other pigs, which showed a higher FI with increased ME content. The meta-analysis confirmed the significant effect of several well-known factors on the performance and efficiency of grower and finisher pigs, the effects of some less established ones and, importantly, the interactions between such factors.
Large numbers of small valley glaciers on Svalbard were thicker and more extensive during the Little Ice Age (LIA), demonstrated by prominent ice-cored moraines up to several kilometres beyond present-day margins. The majority of these glaciers have since experienced a long period of strongly negative mass balance during the 20th century and are now largely frozen to their beds, indicating they are likely to have undergone a thermal transition from a polythermal to a cold-based regime. We present evidence for such a switch by reconstructing the former flow dynamics and thermal regime of Tellbreen, a small cold-based valley glacier in central Spitsbergen, based on its basal sequence and glaciological structures. Within the basal sequence, the underlying matrix-supported diamict is interpreted as saturated subglacial traction till which has frozen at the bed, indicating that the thermal switch has resulted in a cessation of subglacial sediment deformation due to freezing of the former deforming layer. This is overlain by debris-poor dispersed facies ice, interpreted to have formed through strain-induced metamorphism of englacial ice. The sequential development of structures includes arcuate fracture traces, interpreted as shear planes formed in a compressive/transpressive stress regime; and fracture traces, interpreted as healed extensional crevasses. The formation of these sediment/ice facies and structures is indicative of dynamic, warm-based flow, most likely during the LIA when the glacier was significantly thicker.