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This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data.
Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1–3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3–4 months.
Models 1–7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1–6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact.
Any of the modelling techniques (models 1–7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.
SARS-CoV-2, which causes the disease COVID-19, generally has a mild disease course in children. However, a severe post-infectious inflammatory process known as multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children has been observed in association with COVID-19. This inflammatory process is a result of an abnormal immune response with similar clinical features to Kawasaki disease. It is well established that multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is associated with myocardial dysfunction, coronary artery dilation or aneurysms, and occasionally arrhythmias. The most common electrocardiographic abnormalities seen include premature atrial or ventricular ectopy, variable degrees of atrioventricular block, and QTc prolongation, and rarely, haemodynamically significant arrhythmias necessitating extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. However, presentation with fever, hypotension, and relative bradycardia with a left axis idioventricular rhythm has not been previously reported. We present a case of a young adolescent with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children with myocarditis and a profoundly inappropriate sinus node response to shock with complete resolution following intravenous immunoglobulin.
ABSTRACT IMPACT: Glucocorticoid steroids are commonly used despite known dose-dependent cardiovascular toxicity, yet little is known about a) how patients with other cardiovascular risk factors use glucocorticoids, and b) how risks of glucocorticoid treatment might vary depending on a patient’s baseline cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Up to one-third of RA patients use long-term glucocorticoids (GCs) despite a known, dose-dependent association with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aim to evaluate patterns of GC use among RA patients with other MACE risk factors (i.e. diabetes, smoking), and examine how GC use may potentiate these risk factors. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We used claims data from Veterans Health Administration to identify 6,090 RA patients with ≥1 rheumatology clinic visit during 2013-2017. We used logistic regression to evaluate associations between incident MACE between 2013-2018, recent long-term GC use, and 5 MACE risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and prior MACE. We included two-way interaction terms between GC use and each risk factor. We used a claims-based algorithm to define MACE as any of acute MI, ischemic stroke, TIA, sudden death, or coronary revascularization, between index date and 12/31/2018. We defined index date as first rheumatology visit after meeting RA diagnostic criteria, and recent long-term GC use as ≥90 days’ supply dispensed over 2 years prior to index date. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Among 2,884 eligible patients,1,553 (54%) had MACE risk factors, and 97 (3%) had prior MACE (Table 1). Overall, 16% of patients recently used long-term GC, compared to 17% of patients with MACE risk factors, and 22% of patients with prior MACE. Incident MACE occurred in 308 (11%) patients, 24% of whom had recent long-term GC use. Recent long-term GC use was independently associated with increased incident MACE (Table 2). While no interaction term was statistically significant overall, differences in odds of incident MACE were seen across levels of recent GC use for several risk factors, particularly diabetes (OR 2.10, 95% CI [0.93-4.77]), tobacco use (OR 2.88, 95% CI [1.16-7.14]) and prior MACE (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.73-7.95]). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Long-term GC use is common among RA patients with MACE risk factors. In this cohort, 25% of patients with incident MACE had recently used long-term GC. Long-term GC use may potentiate effects of comorbidities like diabetes and smoking, disproportionately increasing MACE risk in certain patients.
Total cost estimates for crime in the USA are both out-of-date and incomplete. We estimated incidence and costs of personal crimes (both violent and non-violent) and property crimes in 2017. Incidence came from national arrest data, multi-state estimates of police-reported crimes per arrest, national victimization and road crash surveys, and police underreporting studies. We updated and expanded upon published unit costs. Estimated crime costs totaled $2.6 trillion ($620 billion in monetary costs plus quality of life losses valued at $1.95 trillion; 95 % uncertainty interval $2.2–$3.0 trillion). Violent crime accounted for 85 % of costs. Principal contributors to the 10.9 million quality-adjusted life years lost were sexual violence, physical assault/robbery, and child maltreatment. Monetary expenditures caused by criminal victimization represent 3 % of Gross Domestic Product – equivalent to the amount spent on national defense. These estimates exclude the additional costs of preventing and avoiding crime such as enhanced lighting and burglar alarms. They also exclude crimes against businesses and most white-collar and corporate offenses.
Multifocal atrial tachycardia has certain electrocardiographic similarities to atrial fibrillation. The mechanism of atrial fibrillation is heterogenous but in some cases may arise from a single ectopic driver with fibrillatory conduction to the rest of the atria. This has led to the speculation that multifocal atrial tachycardia may have a similar mechanistic unifocal site that disperses through the atrium in a fibrillatory pattern. Ivabradine has been reported to be efficacious in an adult with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation as well as in children with junctional or ectopic atrial tachycardias. This is the first report of successfully using ivabradine, a novel anti-arrhythmic If blocking agent, to convert multifocal atrial tachycardia in a 5-month-old critically ill infant to a pattern indicating a single ectopic atrial focus. This allowed the patient’s single atrial focus to be ablated with return to sinus rhythm and decannulation from ventriculoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. This case suggests that multifocal atrial tachycardia may arise from a single automatic focus with downstream fibrillatory conduction to the atria.
The late singer-poet-novelist Leonard Cohen entitled one book of verse Let Us Compare Mythologies. In a sense, all of the chapters in this Part ask us to do exactly that. I do not mean “mythology” in a pejorative sense, but in all its anthropological splendor: taking facts on the ground and understanding them as part of a coherent sense-making worldview, albeit one that may not be falsifiable in a standard sense. But if that still seems pejorative, perhaps we might instead say “Let Us Compare View-Masters,” a reference to the red stereoscopic viewers that have delighted children (and adults) for decades by allowing us to enter static renderings with depth perception of lands real and imagined.