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Seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been widely used to model and forecast incidence of infectious diseases in time-series analysis. This study aimed to model and forecast monthly cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Monthly incidence HFMD cases in China from May 2008 to August 2018 were analysed with the SARIMA model. A seasonal variation of HFMD incidence was found from May 2008 to August 2018 in China, with a predominant peak from April to July and a trough from January to March. In addition, the annual peak occurred periodically with a large annual peak followed by a relatively small annual peak. A SARIMA model of SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was identified, and the mean error rate and determination coefficient were 16.86% and 94.27%, respectively. There was an annual periodicity and seasonal variation of HFMD incidence in China, which could be predicted well by a SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model.
Starch digestion in the small intestines of the dairy cow is low, to a large extent, due to a shortage of syntheses of α-amylase. One strategy to improve the situation is to enhance the synthesis of α-amylase. The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway, which acts as a central regulator of protein synthesis, can be activated by leucine. Our objectives were to investigate the effects of leucine on the mTOR signalling pathway and to define the associations between these signalling activities and the synthesis of pancreatic enzymes using an in vitro model of cultured Holstein dairy calf pancreatic tissue. The pancreatic tissue was incubated in culture medium containing l-leucine for 3 h, and samples were collected hourly, with the control being included but not containing l-leucine. The leucine supplementation increased α-amylase and trypsin activities and the messenger RNA expression of their coding genes (P <0.05), and it enhanced the mTOR synthesis and the phosphorylation of mTOR, ribosomal protein S6 kinase 1 and eukaryotic initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 (P <0.05). In addition, rapamycin inhibited the mTOR signal pathway factors during leucine treatment. In sum, the leucine regulates α-amylase and trypsin synthesis in dairy calves through the regulation of the mTOR signal pathways.
Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been used to model nationwide tuberculosis (TB) incidence in other countries. This study aimed to characterise monthly TB notification rate in China. Monthly TB notification rate from 2005 to 2017 was used. Time-series analysis was based on a SARIMA model and a hybrid model of SARIMA-generalised regression neural network (GRNN) model. A decreasing trend (3.17% per years, P < 0.01) and seasonal variation of TB notification rate were found from 2005 to 2016 in China, with a predominant peak in spring. A SARIMA model of ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was identified. The mean error rate of the single SARIMA model and the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was 6.07% and 2.56%, and the determination coefficient was 0.73 and 0.94, respectively. The better performance of the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was further confirmed with the forecasting dataset (2017). TB is a seasonal disease in China, with a predominant peak in spring, and the trend of TB decreased by 3.17% per year. The SARIMA–GRNN model was more effective than the widely used SARIMA model at predicting TB incidence.
Little is known about the combined use of benzodiazepines and antidepressants in older psychiatric patients. This study examined the prescription pattern of concurrent benzodiazepines in older adults treated with antidepressants in Asia, and explored its demographic and clinical correlates.
The data of 955 older adults with any type of psychiatric disorders were extracted from the database of the Research on Asian Psychotropic Prescription Patterns for Antidepressants (REAP-AD) project. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded using a standardized protocol and data collection procedure. Both univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed.
The proportion of benzodiazepine and antidepressant combination in this cohort was 44.3%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that higher doses of antidepressants, younger age (<65 years), inpatients, public hospital, major comorbid medical conditions, antidepressant types, and country/territory were significantly associated with more frequent co-prescription of benzodiazepines and antidepressants.
Nearly, half of the older adults treated with antidepressants in Asia are prescribed concurrent benzodiazepines. Given the potentially adverse effects of benzodiazepines, the rationale of benzodiazepines and antidepressants co-prescription needs to be revisited.
The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) is one of the most important wheat pests with polyphagia and autumn migrants. And, chemosensory genes were thought to play a key role in insect searching their hosts, food and mate. However, a systematic identification of the chemosensory genes in this pest has not been reported. Thus, in this study, we identified 14 odorant-binding proteins, nine chemosensory proteins, one sensory neuron membrane protein, 15 odorant receptors, 19 gustatory receptors and 16 ionotropic receptors from R. padi transcriptomes with a significantly similarity (E-value < 10−5) to known chemosensory genes in Acyrthosiphon pisum and Aphis gossypii. In addition, real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was employed to determine the expression profiles of obtained genes. Among these obtained genes, we selected 23 chemosensory genes to analyze their expression patterns in different tissues, wing morphs and host plants. We found that except RpOBP1, RpOBP3, RpOBP4 and RpOBP5, the rest of the selected genes were highly expressed in the head with antennae compared with body without head and antennae. Besides that, the stimulation and depression of chemosensory genes by plant switch indicated that chemosensory genes might be involved in the plant suitability assessment. These results not only provide insights for the potential roles of chemosensory genes in plant search and perception of R. padi but also provide initial background information for the further research on the molecular mechanism of the polyphagia and autumn migrants of it. Furthermore, these chemosensory genes are also the candidate targets for pest management control in future.
To effectively shape mental healthcare policy in modern-day China, up-to-date epidemiological data on mental disorders is needed. The objective was to estimate the prevalence, age-of-onset (AOO) and sociodemographic correlates of mental disorders in a representative household sample of the general population (age ⩾ 18) in the Tianjin Municipality in China.
Data came from the Tianjin Mental health Survey (TJMHS), which was conducted between July 2011 and March 2012 using a two-phase design. 11 748 individuals were screened with an expanded version of the General Health Questionnaire and 4438 subjects were selected for a diagnostic interview by a psychiatrist, using the Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual – fourth edition (SCID).
The lifetime and 1-month prevalence of any mental disorder were 23.6% and 12.8%, respectively. Mood disorders (lifetime: 9.3%; 1-month: 3.9%), anxiety disorders (lifetime: 4.5% 1-month: 3.1%) and substance-use disorders (lifetime: 8.8%; 1-month: 3.5%) were most prevalent. The median AOO ranged from 25 years [interquartile range (IQR): 23–32] for substance-use disorders to 36 years (IQR: 24–50) for mood disorders. Not being married, non-immigrant status (i.e. local ‘Hukou’), being a farmer, having <6 years of education and male gender were associated with a higher lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder.
Results from the current survey indicate that mental disorders are steadily reported more commonly in rapidly-developing urban China. Several interesting sociodemographic correlates were observed (e.g. male gender and non-immigrant status) that warrant further investigation and could be used to profile persons in need of preventive intervention.
The role of the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii in the pathogenesis of liver disease has recently gained much interest. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with T. gondii infection in patients with liver disease from three cities in Shandong and Henan provinces, China. A case–control study was conducted from December 2014 to November 2015 and included 1142 patients with liver disease and 1142 healthy controls. Serum samples were collected from all individuals and were examined with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the presence of anti-T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies. Information on the demographics, clinical, and lifestyle characteristics of the participants was collected from the medical records and by the use of a questionnaire. The prevalence of anti-T. gondii IgG was 19·7% in patients with liver disease compared with 12·17% in the controls. Only 13 patients had anti-T. gondii IgM antibodies compared with 12 control individuals (1·14% vs. 1·05%, respectively). The highest seroprevalence was detected in patients with liver cancer (22·13%), followed by hepatitis patients (20·86%), liver cirrhosis patients (20·42%), and steatosis patients (20%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that consumption of raw meat (odds ratio (OR) = 1·32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·01–1·71; P = 0·03) and source of drinking water from wells (OR = 1·56; 95% CI 1·08–2·27; P = 0·01) were independent risk factors for T. gondii infection in liver disease patients. These findings indicate that T. gondii infection is more likely to be present in patients with liver disease. Therefore, efforts should be directed toward health education of populations at high risk of T. gondii infection and measures should be taken to protect vulnerable patients with liver disease.
Using the spectroscopic distances of over 0.12 million A-type stars selected from the LAMOST Spectroscopic Survey of the Galactic Anti-center (LSS-GAC), we map their three-dimensional number density distributions in the Galaxy. These stellar number density maps allow an investigation of the Galactic young age thin disk structure with no a priori assumptions about the functional form of its components. The data show strong evidence for a significant flaring young disk. A more detail analysis show that the stellar flaring have different behaviours between the Northern and the Southern Galactic disks. The maps also reveal spatially coherent, kpc-scale stellar substructure in the thin disk. Finally, we detect the Perseus arm stellar overdensity at R ~ 10 kpc.
Reliable distances to Galactic Supernova remnants (SNRs) are essential to constrain parameters that reveal the evolutional process of SNRs. We carry out a project to measure SNRs’ distances in the first quadrant of the Galaxy. In this project, red clump stars (RCS) are used as standard candle to build the optical extinction (AV)-(D) distance relation in each direction of extinction-known SNRs. Here, G5.7-0.01, G54.1+0.3 and G78.2+2.1 are taken as typical examples. We obtain the distance of 3−0.3+0.4 kpc for G5.7-0.01, the lower limit of 5.8 kpc for G54.1+0.3, the upper limit of 2 kpc for G5.7-0.01. The results are consistent with distances from kinematic measurements. Hence, we highlight the RCS method can independently trace the distance to the SNRs.
Feeding a high concentrate (HC) diet is a widely used strategy for supporting high milk yields, yet it may cause certain metabolic disorders. This study aimed to investigate the changes in milk production and hepatic metabolism in goats fed different proportions of concentrate in the diet for 10 weeks. In total, 12 mid-lactating goats were randomly assigned to an HC diet (65% concentrate of dry matter, n=6) or a low concentrate (LC) diet (35% concentrate of dry matter, n=6). Compared with LC, HC goats produced greater amounts of volatile fatty acids and produced more milk and milk lactose, fat and protein (P<0.01). HC goats showed a greater concentration of ATP, NAD, plasma non-esterified fatty acids and hepatic triglycerides than LC goats (P<0.05). Real-time PCR results showed that messenger RNA (mRNA) expression of gluconeogenic genes, namely, glucose-6-phosphatase, pyruvate carboxylase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase were significantly up-regulated and accompanied greater gluconeogenic enzyme activities in the liver of HC goats. Moreover, the expression of hepatic lipogenic genes including sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1c, fatty acid synthase and diacylglycerol acyltransferase mRNA was also up-regulated by the HC diet (P<0.05). HC goats had greater hepatic phosphorylation of AMP-activated protein kinase than LC (P<0.05). Furthermore, histone-3-lysine-27-acetylation contributed to this elevation of gluconeogenic gene expression. These results indicate that lactating goats fed an HC diet for 10 weeks produced more milk, which was associated with up-regulated gene expression and enzyme activities involved in hepatic gluconeogenesis and lipogenesis.
The natural boundary integral equation (NBIE) is developed to calculate potential derivatives for potential problems with anisotropic media. Firstly, the governing equation of the two-dimensional anisotropic potential problem is transformed into standard Laplace equation by a coordinate transformation method. Then a potential derivative boundary integral equation named as NBIE is extended to solve the anisotropic potential problem. The most important virtue of the NBIE is that the singularity of the integral kernel function is reduced by one order in comparison with the conventional potential derivative boundary integral equation(CDBIE). Therefore the new potential derivative boundary integral equation only contains strongly singular integrals rather than hyper-singular integrals. Thus the NBIE can calculate more accurate potential derivative results for both boundary nodes and interior points. Moreover, in combination with the analytical integral regularization algorithm of nearly singular integrals, the NBIE can obtain more accurate potential derivatives of interior points very close to the boundary than the CDBIE. Numerical examples on heat conduction in anisotropic media demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the NBIE.
In this paper, we show observed properties of tilt and twist of bipolar active regions magnetic fields, using magnetograph data at Huairou, Beijing Astronomical Observatory. We deduce that origin of the twist of magnetic fields is same as that of tilt of bipolar magnetic fields. In another word, they are primarily produced by Coriolis force acting on a rising flux tube through convection zone.
We derive the mean velocity components at various Galactocentric radii from 8 to 14 kpc using about 40,000 red clump stars observed in the LAMOST survey. We find that the vertical bulk motion for younger red clump stars are significantly larger than that for the older red clump stars. This is likely the kinematical feature of the Galactic warp around its line-of-node, which is located close to the Galactic anti-center region. It is evident that the warp are mainly contributed by the younger stars rather than the older stars. The age variation in the vertical kinematics favors a formation scenario where the Galactic warp is originated from infalling misaligned gas.
While Liriomyza sativae (Diptera: Agromyzidae), an important invasive pest of ornamentals and vegetables has been found in China for the past two decades, few studies have focused on its genetics or route of invasive. In this study, we collected 288 L. sativae individuals across 12 provinces to explore its population genetic structure and migration patterns in China using seven microsatellites. We found relatively low levels of genetic diversity but moderate population genetic structure (0.05 < FST < 0.15) in L. sativae from China. All populations deviated significantly from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium due to heterozygote deficiency. Molecular variance analysis revealed that more than 89% of variation was among samples within populations. A UPGMA dendrogram revealed that SH and GXNN populations formed one cluster separate from the other populations, which is in accordance with STRUCTURE and GENELAND analyses. A Mantel test indicated that genetic distance was not correlated to geographic distance (r = −0.0814, P = 0.7610), coupled with high levels of gene flow (M = 40.1–817.7), suggesting a possible anthropogenic influence on the spread of L. sativae in China and on the effect of hosts. The trend of asymmetrical gene flow was from southern to northern populations in general and did not exhibit a Bridgehead effect during the course of invasion, as can be seen by the low genetic diversity of southern populations.
While oral antidepressants reach efficacy after weeks, single-dose intravenous (i.v.) ketamine has rapid, yet time-limited antidepressant effects. We aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of single-dose i.v. ketamine augmentation of escitalopram in major depressive disorder (MDD).
Thirty outpatients with severe MDD (17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression total score ⩾24) were randomized to 4 weeks double-blind treatment with escitalopram 10 mg/day+single-dose i.v. ketamine (0.5 mg/kg over 40 min) or escitalopram 10 mg/day + placebo (0.9% i.v. saline). Depressive symptoms were measured using the Montgomery–Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) and the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology – Self-Report (QIDS-SR). Suicidal ideation was evaluated with the QIDS-SR item 12. Adverse psychopathological effects were measured with the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS)-positive symptoms, Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) and Clinician Administered Dissociative States Scale (CADSS). Patients were assessed at baseline, 1, 2, 4, 24 and 72 h and 7, 14, 21 and 28 days. Time to response (⩾50% MADRS score reduction) was the primary outcome.
By 4 weeks, more escitalopram + ketamine-treated than escitalopram + placebo-treated patients responded (92.3% v. 57.1%, p = 0.04) and remitted (76.9% v. 14.3%, p = 0.001), with significantly shorter time to response [hazard ratio (HR) 0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01–0.22, p < 0.001] and remission (HR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02–0.63, p = 0.01). Compared to escitalopram + placebo, escitalopram + ketamine was associated with significantly lower MADRS scores from 2 h to 2 weeks [(peak = 3 days–2 weeks; effect size (ES) = 1.08–1.18)], QIDS-SR scores from 2 h to 2 weeks (maximum ES = 1.27), and QIDS-SR suicidality from 2 to 72 h (maximum ES = 2.24). Only YMRS scores increased significantly with ketamine augmentation (1 and 2 h), without significant BPRS or CADSS elevation.
Single-dose i.v. ketamine augmentation of escitalopram was safe and effective in severe MDD, holding promise for speeding up early oral antidepressant efficacy.
With the velocity de-projection technique, we derived the averaged 3 dimensional local velocity distribution using only the line-of-sight velocity for the 200,000 FGK type main-sequence stars from the LAMOST DR1 data. Taking the effective temperature as a proxy for age, we investigate the variation of the velocity distribution as a function of Teff and disk height within 100 < |z| < 500 pc. Using the mean velocities of the cool stars, we derive the solar motion of (U⊙, V⊙, W⊙)=(9.58±2.39, 10.52±1.96, 7.01±1.67) kms−1 with respect to the local standard of rest (LSR). Moreover, we find that the stars with Teff > 6000 K show a net asymmetric motion of 〈U〉~2 kms−1 and 〈W〉~3 kms−1 compared to the stars with Teff < 6000 K. And their azimuthal velocity increases when |z| increases. The asymmetric motion in the warmer stars is likely because they are too young and not completely relaxed.
We show that redshift-space distortions of galaxy correlations have a strong effect on correlation functions with the signature of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO). Near the line of sight, the features become sharper as a result of redshift-space distortions. We analyze the SDSS DR7 main-galaxy sample (MGS), splitting the sample into slices 2.5 deg on the sky in various rotations. Measuring 2D correlation functions in each slice, we do see a sharp bump along the line of sight. Using Mexican-hat wavelets, we localize it to (110 ± 10) h − 1 Mpc and estimate its significance at about 4σ.