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We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that we aim to carry out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5 000 deg2; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping (IM) survey over 20 000 deg2 from
$z = 0.35$
to 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI IM survey over 100 deg2 from
$z = 3$
to 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to
$z \sim 3$
with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to
$z = 6$
. These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical and near-infrared (NIR) surveys like Euclid, LSST, and WFIRST leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.
The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) is a planned large radio interferometer designed to operate over a wide range of frequencies, and with an order of magnitude greater sensitivity and survey speed than any current radio telescope. The SKA will address many important topics in astronomy, ranging from planet formation to distant galaxies. However, in this work, we consider the perspective of the SKA as a facility for studying physics. We review four areas in which the SKA is expected to make major contributions to our understanding of fundamental physics: cosmic dawn and reionisation; gravity and gravitational radiation; cosmology and dark energy; and dark matter and astroparticle physics. These discussions demonstrate that the SKA will be a spectacular physics machine, which will provide many new breakthroughs and novel insights on matter, energy, and spacetime.
Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) queries about thoughts of death and self-harm, but not suicidality. Although it is sometimes used to assess suicide risk, most positive responses are not associated with suicidality. The PHQ-8, which omits Item 9, is thus increasingly used in research. We assessed equivalency of total score correlations and the diagnostic accuracy to detect major depression of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9.
We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis. We fit bivariate random-effects models to assess diagnostic accuracy.
16 742 participants (2097 major depression cases) from 54 studies were included. The correlation between PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 scores was 0.996 (95% confidence interval 0.996 to 0.996). The standard cutoff score of 10 for the PHQ-9 maximized sensitivity + specificity for the PHQ-8 among studies that used a semi-structured diagnostic interview reference standard (N = 27). At cutoff 10, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive by 0.02 (−0.06 to 0.00) and more specific by 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) among those studies (N = 27), with similar results for studies that used other types of interviews (N = 27). For all 54 primary studies combined, across all cutoffs, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive than the PHQ-9 by 0.00 to 0.05 (0.03 at cutoff 10), and specificity was within 0.01 for all cutoffs (0.00 to 0.01).
PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 total scores were similar. Sensitivity may be minimally reduced with the PHQ-8, but specificity is similar.
Geochemical and related studies have been made of near-surface sediments from the River Clyde estuary and adjoining areas, extending from Glasgow to the N, and W as far as the Holy Loch on the W coast of Scotland, UK. Multibeam echosounder, sidescan sonar and shallow seismic data, taken with core information, indicate that a shallow layer of modern sediment, often less than a metre thick, rests on earlier glacial and post-glacial sediments. The offshore Quaternary history can be aligned with onshore sequences, with the recognition of buried drumlins, settlement of muds from quieter water, probably behind an ice dam, and later tidal delta deposits. The geochemistry of contaminants within the cores also indicates shallow contaminated sediments, often resting on pristine pre-industrial deposits at depths less than 1m. The distribution of different contaminants with depth in the sediment, such as Pb (and Pb isotopes), organics and radionuclides, allow chronologies of contamination from different sources to be suggested. Dating was also attempted using microfossils, radiocarbon and 210Pb, but with limited success. Some of the spatial distribution of contaminants in the surface sediments can be related to grain-size variations. Contaminants are highest, both in absolute terms and in enrichment relative to the natural background, in the urban and inner estuary and in the Holy Loch, reflecting the concentration of industrial activity.
Pathological worry is a hallmark feature of generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), associated with dysfunctional emotional processing. The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) is involved in the regulation of such processes, but the link between vmPFC emotional responses and pathological v. adaptive worry has not yet been examined.
To study the association between worry and vmPFC activity evoked by the processing of learned safety and threat signals.
In total, 27 unmedicated patients with GAD and 56 healthy controls (HC) underwent a differential fear conditioning paradigm during functional magnetic resonance imaging.
Compared to HC, the GAD group demonstrated reduced vmPFC activation to safety signals and no safety–threat processing differentiation. This response was positively correlated with worry severity in GAD, whereas the same variables showed a negative and weak correlation in HC.
Poor vmPFC safety–threat differentiation might characterise GAD, and its distinctive association with GAD worries suggests a neural-based qualitative difference between healthy and pathological worries.
Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification.
To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics.
Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analysed and binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit.
A total of 17 158 participants (2287 with major depression) from 57 primary studies were analysed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.15–3.87). Compared with semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≤6) as having major depression (OR = 3.13; 95% CI = 0.98–10.00), similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7–15) (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.56–1.66) and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≥16) (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.26–0.97).
The MINI may identify more people as depressed than the CIDI, and semi-structured and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated.
Declaration of interest
Drs Jetté and Patten declare that they received a grant, outside the submitted work, from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute, which was jointly funded by the Institute and Pfizer. Pfizer was the original sponsor of the development of the PHQ-9, which is now in the public domain. Dr Chan is a steering committee member or consultant of Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Lilly, MSD and Pfizer. She has received sponsorships and honorarium for giving lectures and providing consultancy and her affiliated institution has received research grants from these companies. Dr Hegerl declares that within the past 3 years, he was an advisory board member for Lundbeck, Servier and Otsuka Pharma; a consultant for Bayer Pharma; and a speaker for Medice Arzneimittel, Novartis, and Roche Pharma, all outside the submitted work. Dr Inagaki declares that he has received grants from Novartis Pharma, lecture fees from Pfizer, Mochida, Shionogi, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo, Meiji Seika and Takeda, and royalties from Nippon Hyoron Sha, Nanzando, Seiwa Shoten, Igaku-shoin and Technomics, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Yamada reports personal fees from Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd., MSD K.K., Asahi Kasei Pharma Corporation, Seishin Shobo, Seiwa Shoten Co., Ltd., Igaku-shoin Ltd., Chugai Igakusha and Sentan Igakusha, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
Anabolic-androgenic steroid (AAS) use is known to be associated with other psychiatric disorders, such as body image disorders, conduct disorder/sociopathy, and other substance use disorders (SUD) – but the causal pathways among these conditions remain poorly delineated.
We created a directed acyclic graph to diagram hypothesized relationships among AAS use and dependence, body image disorder (BID), conduct disorder/sociopathy, and other SUD. Using proportional hazards models, we then assessed potentially causal relationships among these variables, using a dataset of 233 male weightlifters, of whom 102 had used AAS.
BID and conduct disorder/sociopathy both strongly contributed to the development of AAS use, but did not appear to contribute further to the progression from AAS use to AAS dependence. Other SUD beginning prior to first AAS use – whether broadly defined or restricted only to opioids – failed to show an effect on AAS use or progression to AAS dependence. Conversely, AAS use contributed significantly to the subsequent first-time development of opioid use disorders but did not significantly increase the risk for first-time development of non-opioid SUD, taken as a whole.
Our analysis suggests that AAS use and other SUD are mutually attributable to underlying conduct disorder/sociopathy. SUD do not appear to represent a ‘gateway’ to subsequent AAS use. AAS use may represent a gateway to subsequent opioid use disorder, but probably not to other SUD.
In the original publication of this article, the title was printed as “Four Preceramic Points Newly Discovered in Belize: A Comment on Stemp et al. (1996:279–299).” The article has been updated to the correct title. The authors apologize for this error.
Stemp et al. (2016) published data on 81 preceramic (Archaic) points from Belize, Central America. In this comment, we report four more chipped chert bifaces recently recovered in Belize (Figure 1). Based on metrics (Table 1), technology, and style, three are classified as Lowe and one as a Sawmill point (Kelly 1993; Lohse et al. 2006; Stemp et al. 2016).
Negative mood states are composed of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and by a third factor related to stress, tension and irritability. We sought to clarify the nature of the relationships between the factors by studying twin pairs.
A total of 503 monozygotic twin pairs completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), an instrument that assesses symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress–tension. We applied a recently developed twin regression methodology – Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding (ICE FALCON) – to test for evidence consistent with the existence of ‘causal’ influences between the DASS factors.
There was evidence consistent with the stress–tension factor having a causal influence on both the depression (p < 0.0001) and anxiety factors (p = 0.001), and for the depression factor having a causal influence on the anxiety factor (p < 0.001).
Our findings suggest a critical role for stress–tension in the structure of negative mood states, and that interventions that target it may be particularly effective in reducing depression and anxiety symptoms.
Giant ragweed has been increasing as a major weed of row crops in the last
30 yr, but quantitative data regarding its pattern and mechanisms of spread
in crop fields are lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a Web-based
survey of certified crop advisors in the U.S. Corn Belt and Ontario, Canada.
Participants were asked questions regarding giant ragweed and crop
production practices for the county of their choice. Responses were mapped
and correlation analyses were conducted among the responses to determine
factors associated with giant ragweed populations. Respondents rated giant
ragweed as the most or one of the most difficult weeds to manage in 45% of
421 U.S. counties responding, and 57% of responding counties reported giant
ragweed populations with herbicide resistance to acetolactate synthase
inhibitors, glyphosate, or both herbicides. Results suggest that giant
ragweed is increasing in crop fields outward from the east-central U.S. Corn
Belt in most directions. Crop production practices associated with giant
ragweed populations included minimum tillage, continuous soybean, and
multiple-application herbicide programs; ecological factors included giant
ragweed presence in noncrop edge habitats, early and prolonged emergence,
and presence of the seed-burying common earthworm in crop fields. Managing
giant ragweed in noncrop areas could reduce giant ragweed migration from
noncrop habitats into crop fields and slow its spread. Where giant ragweed
is already established in crop fields, including a more diverse combination
of crop species, tillage practices, and herbicide sites of action will be
critical to reduce populations, disrupt emergence patterns, and select
against herbicide-resistant giant ragweed genotypes. Incorporation of a
cereal grain into the crop rotation may help suppress early giant ragweed
emergence and provide chemical or mechanical control options for
late-emerging giant ragweed.
Cognitive dysfunction is an important aspect of depression that includes problems with thinking, concentration and memory. Research suggests that the cognitive aspect of depression is highly prevalent and has a significant impact on patient functioning. Currently, cognitive dysfunction in depression is largely unrecognised, unmonitored and untreated.
We aim to define cognitive dysfunction in clinical depression (major depressive disorder) and explore its detection and management in the UK, highlighting priority areas to be addressed.
A modified Delphi method was used as the process to gain consensus. A multi-stakeholder steering committee of depression experts (including psychiatrists, psychologists, primary care physicians, and representatives from occupational therapy and a depression charity) provided the key themes and, through round-table discussion, developed draft statements. The main areas of focus were burden, detection and management of cognitive dysfunction in depression. These statements formed a questionnaire to be reviewed by 150–200 health-care professionals with an involvement in the management of depression, with level of agreement noted as ‘strongly disagree’, ‘disagree’, ‘don’t know/uncertain’, ‘agree’ or ‘strongly agree’. Responses to the questionnaire will be analysed (very high agreement [> 66%] or very low agreement [< 33%]) and the steering committee will revise and finalise the consensus statements, and identify priority areas for future consideration. The steering committee was initiated and supported by the pharmaceutical company Lundbeck Ltd, through an educational grant. Lundbeck Ltd did not influence content.
Results of the questionnaire and the evolution of the final consensus statements will be presented.
Disclosure of interest
The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.
A warmer and potentially drier future climate is likely to influence the production of forage crops on dairy farms in the southeast dairy regions of Australia. Biophysical modelling was undertaken to explore the resilience of forage production of individual forage crops to scalar increases in temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and changes in daily rainfall. The model APSIM was adapted to reflect species specific responses to growth under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It was then used to simulate 40 years of production of forage wheat, oats, annual ryegrass, maize grown for silage, forage sorghum, forage rape and alfalfa grown at three locations in southeast Australia with increased temperature scenarios (1, 2, 3 and 4 °C of warming) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (435, 535, 640 and 750 ppm) and decreasing rainfall scenarios (10, 20 or 30% less rainfall). At all locations positive increases in DM yield compared with the baseline climate scenario were predicted for lucerne (2·6–93·2% increase), wheat (8·9–37·4% increase), oats (6·1–35·9% increase) and annual ryegrass (9·7–66·7% increase) under all future climate scenarios. The response of forage rape and forage sorghum varied between location and climate change scenario. At all locations, maize was predicted to have a minimal change in yield under all future climates (between a 2·6% increase and a 6·8% decrease). The future climate scenarios altered the seasonal pattern of forage supply for wheat, oats and lucerne with an increase in forage produced during winter. The resilience of forage crops to climate change indicates that they will continue to be an important component of dairy forage production in southeastern Australia.
In-situ ion irradiation and transmission electron microscopy has been used to examine the effects of the He appm to DPA ratio, temperature and dose on the damage structure of tungsten (W). Irradiations were performed with 15 or 60 keV He+ ions, achieving He-appm/displacements per atom (DPA) ratios of ∼40,000 and ∼2000, respectively, at temperatures between 500 and 1000°C to a dose of ∼3 DPA. A high number of small dislocation loops with sizes around 5–20 nm and a He bubble lattice were observed for both He-appm/DPA ratios at 500°C with a bubble size ∼1.5 nm. Using the g.b=0 criterion the loops were characterised as b = ±1/2<111> type. At 750°C bubbles do not form an ordered array and are larger in size compared to the irradiations at 500°C, with a diameter of ∼3 nm. Fewer dislocation loops were observed at this temperature and were also characterised to be b = ±1/2<111> type. At 1000°C, no dislocation loops were observed and bubbles grew as a function of fluence attributed to vacancy mobility being higher and vacancy clusters becoming mobile.