We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model selection based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), we show that our model provides a good fit to the observed data by sharing information across the sites. We also propose a simple approach for evaluating the efficacy of the multi-site experiment by comparing the results to those that would be expected in hypothetical single-site experiments with the same sample size.

Over the last 25 years, radiowave detection of neutrino-generated signals, using cold polar ice as the neutrino target, has emerged as perhaps the most promising technique for detection of extragalactic ultra-high energy neutrinos (corresponding to neutrino energies in excess of 0.01 Joules, or 1017 electron volts). During the summer of 2021 and in tandem with the initial deployment of the Radio Neutrino Observatory in Greenland (RNO-G), we conducted radioglaciological measurements at Summit Station, Greenland to refine our understanding of the ice target. We report the result of one such measurement, the radio-frequency electric field attenuation length $L_\alpha$. We find an approximately linear dependence of $L_\alpha$ on frequency with the best fit of the average field attenuation for the upper 1500 m of ice: $\langle L_\alpha \rangle = ( ( 1154 \pm 121) - ( 0.81 \pm 0.14) \, ( \nu /{\rm MHz}) ) \,{\rm m}$ for frequencies ν ∈ [145 − 350] MHz.

Introduction: An important challenge physicians face when treating acute heart failure (AHF) patients in the emergency department (ED) is deciding whether to admit or discharge, with or without early follow-up. The overall goal of our project was to improve care for AHF patients seen in the ED while avoiding unnecessary hospital admissions. The specific goal was to introduce hospital rapid referral clinics to ensure AHF patients were seen within 7 days of ED discharge. Methods: This prospective before-after study was conducted at two campuses of a large tertiary care hospital, including the EDs and specialty outpatient clinics. We enrolled AHF patients ≥50 years who presented to the ED with shortness of breath (<7 days). The 12-month before (control) period was separated from the 12-month after (intervention) period by a 3-month implementation period. Implementation included creation of rapid access AHF clinics staffed by cardiology and internal medicine, and development of referral procedures. There was extensive in-servicing of all ED staff. The primary outcome measure was hospital admission at the index visit or within 30 days. Secondary outcomes included mortality and actual access to rapid follow-up. We used segmented autoregression analysis of the monthly proportions to determine whether there was a change in admissions coinciding with the introduction of the intervention and estimated a sample size of 700 patients. Results: The patients in the before period (N = 355) and the after period (N = 374) were similar for age (77.8 vs. 78.1 years), arrival by ambulance (48.7% vs 51.1%), comorbidities, current medications, and need for non-invasive ventilation (10.4% vs. 6.7%). Comparing the before to the after periods, we observed a decrease in hospital admissions on index visit (from 57.7% to 42.0%; P <0.01), as well as all admissions within 30 days (from 65.1% to 53.5% (P < 0.01). The autoregression analysis, however, demonstrated a pre-existing trend to fewer admissions and could not attribute this to the intervention (P = 0.91). Attendance at a specialty clinic, amongst those discharged increased from 17.8% to 42.1% (P < 0.01) and the median days to clinic decreased from 13 to 6 days (P < 0.01). 30-day mortality did not change (4.5% vs. 4.0%; P = 0.76). Conclusion: Implementation of rapid-access dedicated AHF clinics led to considerably increased access to specialist care, much reduced follow-up times, and possible reduction in hospital admissions. Widespread use of this approach can improve AHF care in Canada.

Introduction: In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) most commonly occurs in non-monitored areas, where we observed a 10min delay before defibrillation (Phase I). Nurses (RNs) and respiratory therapists (RTs) cannot legally use Automated External Defibrillators (AEDs) during IHCA without a medical directive. We sought to evaluate IHCA outcomes following usual implementation (Phase II) vs. a Theory-Based educational program (Phase III) allowing RNs and RTs to use AEDs during IHCA. Methods: We completed a pragmatic before-after study of consecutive IHCA. We used ICD-10 codes to identify potentially eligible cases and included IHCA cases for which resuscitation was attempted. We obtained consensus on all data definitions before initiation of standardized-piloted data extraction by trained investigators. Phase I (Jan.2012-Aug.2013) consisted of baseline data. We implemented the AED medical directive in Phase II (Sept.2013-Aug.2016) using usual implementation strategies. In Phase III (Sept.2016-Dec.2017) we added an educational video informed by key constructs from a Theory of Planned Behavior survey. We report univariate comparisons of Utstein IHCA outcomes using 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: There were 753 IHCA for which resuscitation was attempted with the following similar characteristics (Phase I n = 195; II n = 372; III n = 186): median age 68, 60.0% male, 79.3% witnessed, 29.7% non-monitored medical ward, 23.9% cardiac cause, 47.9% initial rhythm of pulseless electrical activity and 27.2% ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia (VF/VT). Comparing Phases I, II and III: an AED was used 0 times (0.0%), 21 times (5.6%), 15 times (8.1%); time to 1st rhythm analysis was 6min, 3min, 1min; and time to 1st shock was 10min, 10min and 7min. Comparing Phases I and III: time to 1st shock decreased by 3min (95%CI -7; 1), sustained ROSC increased from 29.7% to 33.3% (AD3.6%; 95%CI -10.8; 17.8), and survival to discharge increased from 24.6% to 25.8% (AD1.2%; 95%CI -7.5; 9.9). In the VF/VT subgroup, time to first shock decreased from 9 to 3 min (AD-6min; 95%CI -12; 0) and survival increased from 23.1% to 38.7% (AD15.6%; 95%CI -4.3; 35.4). Conclusion: The implementation of a medical directive allowing for AED use by RNs and RRTs successfully improved key outcomes for IHCA victims, particularly following the Theory-Based education video. The expansion of this project to other hospitals and health care professionals could significantly impact survival for VF/VT patients.

Introduction: Individualizing risk for stroke following a transient ischemic attack (TIA) is a topic of intense research, as existing scores are context-dependent or have not been well validated. The Canadian TIA Score stratifies risk of subsequent stroke into low, moderate and high risk. Our objective was to prospectively validate the Canadian TIA Score in a new cohort of emergency department (ED) patients. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 14 Canadian EDs over 4 years. We enrolled consecutive adult patients with an ED visit for TIA or nondisabling stroke. Treating physicians recorded standardized clinical variables onto data collection forms. Given the ability of prompt emergency carotid endarterectomy (CEA) to prevent stroke (NNT = 3) in high risk patients, our primary outcome was the composite of subsequent stroke or CEA ≤7 days. We conducted telephone follow-up using the validated Questionnaire for Verifying Stroke Free Status at 7 and 90 days. Outcomes were adjudicated by panels of 3 local stroke experts, blinded to the index ED data collection form. Based on prior work, we estimated a sample size of 5,004 patients including 93 subsequent strokes, would yield 95% confidence bands of +/− 10% for sensitivity and likelihood ratio (LR). Our analyses assessed interval LRs (iLR) with 95% CIs. Results: We prospectively enrolled 7,569 patients with mean 68.4 +/−14.7 years and 52.4% female, of whom 107 (1.4%) had a subsequent stroke and 74 (1.0%) CEA ≤7 days (total outcomes = 181). We enrolled 81.2% of eligible patients; missed patients were similar to enrolled. The Canadian TIA Score stratified the stroke/CEA ≤7days risk as: Low (probability <0.2%, iLR 0.20 [95%CI 0.091-0.44]; Moderate (probability 1.3%, iLR 0.79 [0.68-0.92]; High (probability 2.6%, iLR 2.2 [1.9-2.6]. Sensitivity analysis for just stroke ≤7 days yielded similar results: Low iLR 0.17 [95%CI 0.056-0.52], Medium iLR 0.89 [0.75-1.1], High iLR 2.0 [1.6-2.4]. Conclusion: The Canadian TIA Score accurately identifies TIA patients risk for stroke/CEA ≤7 days. Patients classified as low risk can be safely discharged following a careful ED assessment with elective follow-up. Patients at moderate risk can undergo additional testing in the ED, have antithrombotic therapy optimized, and be offered early stroke specialist follow-up. Patients at high risk should in most cases be fully investigated and managed ideally in consultation with a stroke specialist during their index ED visit.

Introduction: Guidelines recommend serial conventional cardiac troponin (cTn) measurements 6-9 hours apart for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) diagnosis. We sought to develop a pathway based on absolute/relative changes between two serial conventional cardiac troponin I (cTnI) values 3-hours apart for 15-day MACE identification. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study conducted in the two large ED's at the Ottawa Hospital. Adults with NSTEMI symptoms were enrolled over 32 months. Patients with STEMI, hospitalized for unstable angina, or with only one cTnI were excluded. We collected baseline characteristics, Siemens Vista cTnI at 0 and 3-hours after ED presentation, disposition, and ED length of stay (LOS). Adjudicated primary outcome was 15-day MACE (AMI, revascularization, or death due to cardiac ischemia/unknown cause). We analysed cTnI values by 99th percentile cut-off multiples (45, 100 and 250ng/L). Results: 1,683 patients (mean age 64.7 years; 55.3% female; median ED LOS 7 hours; 88 patients with 15-day MACE) were included. 1,346 (80.0%) patients with both cTnI ≤45ng/L; and 58 (3.4%) of the 213 patients with one value≥100ng/L but both <250ng/L or ≤20% change did not suffer MACE. Among 124 patients (7.4%) with one value >45ng/L but both <100ng/L based on 3 or 6-hour cTnI, one patient with Δ<10ng/L and 6 of 19 patients with Δ≥20ng/L were diagnosed with NSTEMI (patients with Δ10-19ng/L between first and second cTnI had third one at 6-hours). Based on the results, we developed the Ottawa Troponin Pathway (OTP) with a 98.9% sensitivity (95%CI 96.7-100%) and 94.6% specificity (95%CI 93.4-95.7%). Conclusion: The OTP, using two conventional cTnI measurements performed 3-hours apart, should lead to better identification of NSTEMI particularly those with values >99th percentile cut-off, standardize management and reduce the ED LOS.

BACKGROUND: IGTS is a rare phenomenon of paradoxical germ cell tumor (GCT) growth during or following treatment despite normalization of tumor markers. We sought to evaluate the frequency, clinical characteristics and outcome of IGTS in patients in 21 North-American and Australian institutions. METHODS: Patients with IGTS diagnosed from 2000-2017 were retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: Out of 739 GCT diagnoses, IGTS was identified in 33 patients (4.5%). IGTS occurred in 9/191 (4.7%) mixed-malignant GCTs, 4/22 (18.2%) immature teratomas (ITs), 3/472 (0.6%) germinomas/germinomas with mature teratoma, and in 17 secreting non-biopsied tumours. Median age at GCT diagnosis was 10.9 years (range 1.8-19.4). Male gender (84%) and pineal location (88%) predominated. Of 27 patients with elevated markers, median serum AFP and Beta-HCG were 70 ng/mL (range 9.2-932) and 44 IU/L (range 4.2-493), respectively. IGTS occurred at a median time of 2 months (range 0.5-32) from diagnosis, during chemotherapy in 85%, radiation in 3%, and after treatment completion in 12%. Surgical resection was attempted in all, leading to gross total resection in 76%. Most patients (79%) resumed GCT chemotherapy/radiation after surgery. At a median follow-up of 5.3 years (range 0.3-12), all but 2 patients are alive (1 succumbed to progressive disease, 1 to malignant transformation of GCT). CONCLUSION: IGTS occurred in less than 5% of patients with GCT and most commonly after initiation of chemotherapy. IGTS was more common in patients with IT-only on biopsy than with mixed-malignant GCT. Surgical resection is a principal treatment modality. Survival outcomes for patients who developed IGTS are favourable.

Introduction: The Ottawa SAH Rule was developed to identify patients at high-risk for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) who require investigations and the 6-Hour CT Rule found that computed tomography (CT) was 100% sensitive for SAH 6 hours of headache onset. Together, they form the Ottawa SAH Strategy. Our objectives were to assess: 1) Safety of the Ottawa SAH Strategy and its 2) Impact on: a) CTs, b) LPs, c) ED length of stay, and d) CT angiography (CTA). Methods: We conducted a multicentre prospective before/after study at 6 tertiary-care EDs January 2010 to December 2016 (implementation July 2013). Consecutive alert, neurologically intact adults with a headache peaking within one hour were included. SAH was defined by subarachnoid blood on head CT (radiologists final report); xanthochromia in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF); >1x106/L red blood cells in the final tube of CSF with an aneurysm on CTA. Results: We enrolled 3,669 patients, 1,743 before and 1,926 after implementation, including 185 with SAH. The investigation rate before implementation was 89.0% (range 82.9 to 95.6%) versus 88.4% (range 85.2 to 92.3%) after implementation. The proportion who had CT remained stable (88.0% versus 87.4%; p=0.60), while the proportion who had LP decreased from 38.9% to 25.9% (p<0.001), and the proportion investigated with CTA increased from 18.8% to 21.6% (p=0.036). The additional testing rate (i.e. LP or CTA) diminishedfrom 50.1% to 40.8% (p<0.001). The proportion admitted declined from 9.8% to 7.3% (p=0.008), while the mean length of ED stay was stable (6.2 +/− 4.0 to 6.4 +/− 4.1 hours; p=0.45). For the 1,201 patients with CT 6 hours, there was an absolute decrease in additional testing (i.e. LP or CTA) of 15.0% (46.6% versus 31.6%; p<0.001). The sensitivity of the Ottawa SAH Rule was 100% (95%CI: 98-100%), and the 6-Hour CT Rule was 95.3% (95%CI: 88.9-98.3) for SAH. Five patients with early CT had SAH with CT reported as normal: 2 unruptured aneuryms on CTA and presumed traumatic LP (determined by treating neurosurgeon); 1 missed by the radiologist on the initial interpretation; 1 dural vein fistula (i.e. non-aneuyrsmal); and 1 profoundly anemic (Hgb 63g/L). Conclusion: The Ottawa SAH Strategy is highly sensitive and can be used routinely when SAH is being considered in alert and neurologically intact headache patients. Its implementation was associated with a decrease in LPs and admissions to hospital.

Introduction: Two published studies reported natriuretic peptides can aid in risk-stratification of Emergency Department (ED) syncope. We sought to assess the role of N-Terminal pro Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT pro-BNP) to identify syncope patients at risk for serious adverse events (SAE) within 30 days of the ED visit, and its value above that of the Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS). Methods: We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study at 6 large Canadian EDs from Nov 2011 to Feb 2015. We enrolled adults who presented within 24-hours of syncope and excluded those with persistent altered mentation, obvious seizure, and intoxication. We collected patient characteristics, nine CSRS predictors (includes troponin), ED management and NT pro-BNP levels. Adjudicated serious adverse events (SAE) included death, cardiac SAE (arrhythmias, myocardial infarction, serious structural heart disease) and non-cardiac SAE (pulmonary embolism, severe hemorrhage and procedural interventions within 30-days). We used two tailed t-test and logistic regression analysis. Results: Of the 1359 patients (mean age 57.2 years, 54.7% females, 13.3% hospitalized) enrolled, 148 patients (10.9%; 0.7% deaths, 7.9% cardiac SAE including 6.1% arrhythmia) suffered SAE within 30-days. The mean NT pro-BNP values, when compared to the patients with no SAE (499.8ng/L) was significantly higher among the 56 patients who suffered SAE after ED disposition (3147ng/L, p=0.001), and among the 35 patients with cardiac SAE after ED disposition (2016.2ng/L, p=0.02). While there was a trend to higher levels among patients who suffered arrhythmia after the ED visit, it was not statistically significant (1776.4ng/L, p=0.07). In a model with CSRS predictors, the adjusted odds ratio for NT pro-BNP was 8.0 (95%CI 1.8, 35.9) and troponin was 3.8 (95%CI 1.7, 8.8). The addition of NT pro-BNP did not significantly improve the classification performance (p=0.76) with areas under the curves for CSRS was 0.91 (95%CI 0.88, 0.95) and CSRS with NT pro-BNP was 0.92 (95%CI 0.88, 0.95). Conclusion: In this multicenter study, mean NT pro-BNP levels were significantly higher among ED syncope patients who suffered SAE including cardiac SAE after ED disposition. Though NT pro-BNP was a significant independent predictor of SAE after ED disposition, it did not improve accuracy in ED syncope risk-stratification when compared to CSRS. Hence, we do not recommend NT pro-BNP measurement for ED syncope management.

Introduction: Creatine kinase (CK) measurement, despite not being recommended for the diagnosis of a Non-ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (NSTEMI) is still routinely performed in the emergency department (ED) for the workup of NSTEMI. The diagnostic utility of CK among ED patients with suspected NSTEMI is still not well understood. The objectives of this study were to assess: the additional value of CK in NSTEMI diagnosis and the correlation between the highest CK/TNI values and ejection fraction (EF) on follow-up echocardiography among patients with suspected NSTEMI. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study conducted at the Civic and General Campuses of The Ottawa Hospital from March 2014 to March 2016. We enrolled adults (18 years) for whom troponin (TNI) and CK were ordered for chest pain or non-chest pain symptoms within the past 24 hours concerning for NSTEMI and excluded those with suspected ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI). Primary outcome was a 30-day NSTEMI adjudicated by two blinded physicians. Demographics, medical history, and ED CK/TNI values were collected. We used descriptive statistics and report test diagnostic characteristics. Results: Of the 1,663 patients enrolled, 84 patients (5.1%) suffered NSTEMI. The sensitivity and specificity of CK was 30.9% (95%CI 21.1, 40.8) and 91.4% (95%CI 90.0, 92.8) respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of troponin was 96.4% (95%CI 92.4, 100) and 88.1% (95%CI 86.5, 89.7) respectively. Among 3 (0.2%) patients with missed NSTEMI diagnosis with TNI, CK measurements did not add value. The mean CK values were not significantly different between those with normal and abnormal EF on follow-up (132.4 U/L and 146.3 U/L respectively; p=0.44), whereas the mean TNI values were significantly different (0.5 µg/L and 1.3 µg/L respectively; p=0.046). Conclusion: CK measurements neither provide any additional value in the work-up of NSTEMI in the ED nor correlate with EF on follow-up. Discontinuing routine CK measurements would reduce overall costs and improve resource utilization in the ED, and streamline the management of patients in the ED with chest pain.

We use numerical simulations from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center to provide, for the first time, a coherent temporal description of the magnetic reconnection process of two dayside Electron Diffusion Regions (EDRs) identified in Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission data. The model places the MMS spacecraft near the separator line in these most intense and long-lived events. A listing of 31 dayside EDRs identified by the authors is provided to encourage collaboration in analysis of these unique encounters.

The International Accounting Standards Board is undertaking a project to develop an Accounting Standard for Insurance. The basis for these proposals is that assets and liabilities should be shown at fair values (market values for quoted instruments). This is an updated version of a paper, prepared by a Working Party established by the General Insurance Research Organisation (GIRO) of the General Insurance Board of the actuarial profession of the United Kingdom, which was first presented to the GIRO Conference in October 2002. This paper summarises and comments upon the principal features of the proposals as they have emerged up to February 2003. The paper considers the implications for general insurance companies of these proposals. In particular, it examines the concept of market value margins, and the practical issues that insurance companies are likely to encounter in implementing them. The emphasis of the paper is on reporting for general insurance business, although many of the principles apply equally to life assurance.