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The effect of preference uncertainty on estimated willingness to pay (WTP) is examined using identical payment cards and alternative uncertainty elicitation procedures in three split samples, focusing on air quality improvement in Nairobi. The effect of the stochastic payment card (SPC) and polychotomous payment card (PPC) are compared with a conventional payment card (PC). Substantial financial support is found for improved air quality in Nairobi, with approximately 85 per cent of the whole sample stating a positive WTP. The way WTP values are elicited, with and without ability to express preference uncertainty, has significant effect on WTP welfare estimate. Allowing respondents to express experienced uncertainty when stating WTP value yields more conservative but less accurate WTP values for inclusion in policy analysis. The PPC seems to hold more promise since it is easier to understand and imposes less cognitive burden on survey participants than the SPC in a developing country context.
The provision of environmental services on-farm by the improved fallow (an agroforestry technology) has largely remained empirically untested in sub-Saharan Africa. Where effects of planting trees have been used to estimate the impacts on consumption of fuel wood from public land, actual estimates of the size of fuel wood consumption changes have been lacking. Using data from a survey of 324 households in the Chongwe district of Zambia, we tested the hypothesis that households embracing improved fallows use less fuel wood from public land since the technology provides wood as a by-product. Estimates from ordered probit and matching strategies showed that the technology had a significant causal effect of reducing the consumption of fuel wood from public land. Therefore, in addition to promoting it for soil fertility improvement, the extension messages should explicitly reflect the technology's potential to provide on-farm environmental quality.
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