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Pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum is a rare congenital cardiac lesion with significant anatomical heterogeneity. Surgical planning of borderline cases remains challenging and is primarily based on echocardiography. The aim was to identify echocardiographic parameters that correlate with surgical outcome and to develop a discriminatory calculator.
Methods:
Retrospective review of all pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum cases at a statewide tertiary paediatric cardiac centre was performed between 2004 and 2020. Demographic, clinical, and echocardiographic data were collected. Logistic regression was used to develop a discriminatory tool for prediction of biventricular repair.
Results:
Forty patients were included. Overall mortality was 27.5% (n = 11) and confined to patients managed as univentricular (11 vs 0, p = 0.027). Patients who underwent univentricular palliation were more likely to have an associated coronary artery abnormality (17 vs 3, p = 0.001). Fifteen surviving patients (51.7%) achieved biventricular circulation while 14 (48.3%) required one-and-a-half or univentricular palliation. Nineteen patients (47.5%) underwent percutaneous pulmonary valve perforation. No patients without tricuspid regurgitation achieved biventricular repair. The combination of tricuspid valve/mitral valve annulus dimension ratio and right ventricle/left ventricle length ratio identified biventricular management with a sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 96%. An online calculator has been made available.
Conclusion:
Pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum is a challenging condition with significant early and interstage morbidity and mortality risk. Patient outcomes were comparable to internationally reported data. Right ventricle/left ventricle length and tricuspid valve/mitral valve annulus dimension ratios identified a biventricular pathway with a high level of sensitivity and specificity. Absent tricuspid regurgitation was associated with a univentricular outcome.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Measuring the area of skin involvement in chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) relies on costly, time-consuming manual assessment, with high disagreement among experts (>20%). Our published AI method, trained on labeled 3D photos, showed promise for delineating affected areas. We aim to improve its performance using unlabeled 2D photos. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Our published AI model (baseline) was trained on 360 labeled photos of 36 cGVHD patients,from a 3D camera with calibrated distance and lighting.Our gold standard labels were contours around affected skin, marked by a trained expert. A second unlabeledcohort of 974 standard 2D photos of 8 cGVHD patients was used to improve the baseline model. First the baseline model predicted affected areas on the unlabeled photos. Photos with good predictions were added to the training set with their AI-predicted labels. The model was then re-trained with the expanded labeled set. Models were successively trained with more AI labels until performance stopped improving. AI performance was assessed on a test set of 20 photos from 20 patients unseen during training, labeled by 4 experts to improve accuracy. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Model performance was calculated by comparing against the gold standard labels on the test set. To quantify the spatial overlap of labeled areas the Dice coefficient was used (0 is no overlap, 1 is complete agreement), where higher values are better. To estimate clinical error we used surface area error (Error), where lower values are better. On the test set, the baseline model had a median Dice of 0.57 [interquartile range: 0.39 – 0.82] and Error of 57.6% [20.2 – 103.3%]. Re-training with additional AI-predicted labels from 8 new patients, the model yielded a median Dice of 0.60 [0.35 – 0.80] and Error of 50% [12.5 – 103.8%]. This approach is being expanded to a further 300 unlabeled patients, where we anticipate significant improvements to AI performance and consistency. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Evaluating AI models in standard photos could provide a consistent method of assessing and tracking cutaneous cGVHD and relieve the burden of costly expert assessment. A reliable automated AI tool would provide a meaningful improvement to the current standard of manual assessment and could be easily applied to large patient cohorts.
We report the discovery of a bow-shock pulsar wind nebula (PWN), named Potoroo, and the detection of a young pulsar J1638$-$4713 that powers the nebula. We present a radio continuum study of the PWN based on 20-cm observations obtained from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) and MeerKAT. PSR J1638$-$4713 was identified using Parkes radio telescope observations at frequencies above 3 GHz. The pulsar has the second-highest dispersion measure of all known radio pulsars (1 553 pc cm$^{-3}$), a spin period of 65.74 ms and a spin-down luminosity of $\dot{E}=6.1\times10^{36}$ erg s$^{-1}$. The PWN has a cometary morphology and one of the greatest projected lengths among all the observed pulsar radio tails, measuring over 21 pc for an assumed distance of 10 kpc. The remarkably long tail and atypically steep radio spectral index are attributed to the interplay of a supernova reverse shock and the PWN. The originating supernova remnant is not known so far. We estimated the pulsar kick velocity to be in the range of 1 000–2 000 km s$^{-1}$ for ages between 23 and 10 kyr. The X-ray counterpart found in Chandra data, CXOU J163802.6$-$471358, shows the same tail morphology as the radio source but is shorter by a factor of 10. The peak of the X-ray emission is offset from the peak of the radio total intensity (Stokes $\rm I$) emission by approximately 4.7$^{\prime\prime}$, but coincides well with circularly polarised (Stokes $\rm V$) emission. No infrared counterpart was found.
Operational Risk is one of the most difficult risks to model. It is a large and diverse category covering anything from cyber losses to mis-selling fines; and from processing errors to HR issues. Data is usually lacking, particularly for low frequency, high impact losses, and consequently there can be a heavy reliance on expert judgement. This paper seeks to help actuaries and other risk professionals tasked with the challenge of validating models of operational risks. It covers the loss distribution and scenario-based approaches most commonly used to model operational risks, as well as Bayesian Networks. It aims to give a comprehensive yet practical guide to how one may validate each of these and provide assurance that the model is appropriate for a firm’s operational risk profile.
Depressive symptomatology has long been shown to be associated with the onset of dementia, though the exact form and directionality of this association remains unclear. While much research has gone into confirming this link, there has been little investigation into the effects of depression on dementia progression after diagnosis. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between depressive symptomatology and cognitive and behavioural decline over the following year.
Participants and Methods:
In a Rural and Remote Memory Clinic, 375 patients consecutively diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), or non-AD dementia completed the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) at first visit and one-year follow-up to assess depressive symptomatology. The same cohort were evaluated for cognitive and behavioural decline through the completion of five clinical tests performed at the first visit and at one-year follow-up. Cognitive decline was assessed using the Mini Mental Status Exam (MMSE) and the Clinical Dementia Rating Scale (CDR). Neuropsychiatric symptoms were assessed using two subsets of data from the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI severity and distress), both of which are completed by the patients’ caregivers. Functional decline was assessed using the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ). In both cognitive and functional decline, data were analyzed with linear regression analysis in the population subgroups of All Type Dementia (ATD, which includes MCI for this study) (N=375), Alzheimer’s type dementia (N=187), and Mild Cognitive Impairment (N=74).
Results:
In this study, we observed no correlation between CES-D scores at baseline and cognitive or functional decline over one year. However, we observed a significant positive correlation between changes in CES-D scores and NPI-severity scores over one year in patients with ATD (likely the most reliable observation from this study due to larger statistical power) and in the MCI subgroup, but not in the AD subgroup. This relationship may be attributable to a relationship between depression and neuropsychiatric symptoms in general, or to the fact that a person with dementia who exhibits more depressive symptomatology appears more impaired and causes greater distress in their caregivers, despite stability in the objective measures of their cognitive and functional status. This finding may indicate that intervention for depression is needed to alleviated caregiver burden when managing dementia patients.
Conclusions:
Increasingly severe depressive symptomatology may exacerbate neuropsychiatric symptomatology but did not correlate with cognitive and functional decline in patients with dementia. More studies are needed to help delineate the relationship between depression and dementia progression.
Engaging patients, caregivers, and other stakeholders to help guide the research process is a cornerstone of patient-centered research. Lived expertise may help ensure the relevance of research questions, promote practices that are satisfactory to research participants, improve transparency, and assist with disseminating findings.
Methods:
Traditionally engagement has been conducted face-to-face in the local communities in which research operates. Decentralized platform trials pose new challenges for the practice of engagement. We used a remote model for stakeholder engagement, relying on Zoom meetings and blog communications.
Results:
Here we describe the approach used for research partnership with patients, caregivers, and clinicians in the planning and oversight of the ACTIV-6 trial and the impact of this work. We also present suggestions for future remote engagement.
Conclusions:
The ACTIV-6 experience may inform proposed strategies for future engagement in decentralized trials.
New technologies and disruptions related to Coronavirus disease-2019 have led to expansion of decentralized approaches to clinical trials. Remote tools and methods hold promise for increasing trial efficiency and reducing burdens and barriers by facilitating participation outside of traditional clinical settings and taking studies directly to participants. The Trial Innovation Network, established in 2016 by the National Center for Advancing Clinical and Translational Science to address critical roadblocks in clinical research and accelerate the translational research process, has consulted on over 400 research study proposals to date. Its recommendations for decentralized approaches have included eConsent, participant-informed study design, remote intervention, study task reminders, social media recruitment, and return of results for participants. Some clinical trial elements have worked well when decentralized, while others, including remote recruitment and patient monitoring, need further refinement and assessment to determine their value. Partially decentralized, or “hybrid” trials, offer a first step to optimizing remote methods. Decentralized processes demonstrate potential to improve urban-rural diversity, but their impact on inclusion of racially and ethnically marginalized populations requires further study. To optimize inclusive participation in decentralized clinical trials, efforts must be made to build trust among marginalized communities, and to ensure access to remote technology.
The interaction of steady free-surface flows of viscoplastic material with a surface-piercing obstruction of square cross-section on an inclined plane is investigated theoretically. The flow thickness increases upstream of the obstruction and decreases in its lee. The flow depends on two dimensionless parameters: an aspect ratio that relates the flow thickness, the obstruction width and the plane inclination; and a Bingham number that quantifies the magnitude of the yield stress relative to the gravitationally induced stresses. Flows with a non-vanishing yield stress always form a static ‘dead’ zone in a neighbourhood of the upstream and downstream stagnation points. For relatively wide obstructions, a deep ‘ponded’ region develops upstream with a small dead zone, while the deflected flow reconnects over relatively long distances downstream. The depth of the upstream pond increases with both the dimensionless yield stress and width of the obstruction, while the unyielded dead zone varies primarily with the yield stress. Both are predicted asymptotically by balancing the volume flux of fluid into and out of the ponded region. When the obstruction is narrow, the perturbation to the depth of the oncoming flow is reduced. It exhibits fore–aft antisymmetry, while the dead zone is symmetric to leading order. Increasing the yield stress leads to larger dead zones that eventually encompass all of the upstream- and downstream-facing boundaries of the obstruction and fully divert the flow. Results for obstructions with circular and rhomboidal cross-sections are also presented and illustrate the effects of boundary shape on the properties of the steady flow.
Precision Medicine is an emerging approach for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle. Autoimmune diseases are those in which the body’s natural defense system loses discriminating power between its own cells and foreign cells, causing the body to mistakenly attack healthy tissues. These conditions are very heterogeneous in their presentation and therefore difficult to diagnose and treat. Achieving precision medicine in autoimmune diseases has been challenging due to the complex etiologies of these conditions, involving an interplay between genetic, epigenetic, and environmental factors. However, recent technological and computational advances in molecular profiling have helped identify patient subtypes and molecular pathways which can be used to improve diagnostics and therapeutics. This review discusses the current understanding of the disease mechanisms, heterogeneity, and pathogenic autoantigens in autoimmune diseases gained from genomic and transcriptomic studies and highlights how these findings can be applied to better understand disease heterogeneity in the context of disease diagnostics and therapeutics.
Lumateperone (LUMA) is an FDA-approved antipsychotic to treat schizophrenia and depressive episodes associated with bipolar I or bipolar II disorder. An open-label study (Study 303) evaluated the safety and tolerability of LUMA in outpatients with stable schizophrenia who switched from previous antipsychotic (AP) treatment. This post hoc analysis of Study 303 investigated the safety and tolerability of LUMA stratified by previous AP in patients who switched to LUMA treatment for 6 weeks.
Methods
Adult outpatients (≥18 years) with stable schizophrenia were switched from previous AP to LUMA 42 mg once daily for 6 weeks followed by switching to another approved AP for 2 weeks follow-up. Post hoc analyses were stratified by most common previous AP: risperidone or paliperidone (RIS/PAL); quetiapine (QET); aripiprazole or brexpiprazole (ARI/BRE); olanzapine (OLA). Safety analyses included adverse events (AE), vital signs, and laboratory tests. Efficacy was assessed using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the Clinical Global Impressions-Severity (CGI-S) scale.
Results
The safety population comprised 301 patients, of which 235 (78.1%) were previously treated with RIS/PAL (n=95), QET (n=60), ARI/BRE (n=43), or OLA (n=37). Rates of treatment-emergent AEs (TEAEs) while on LUMA were similar between previous AP groups (44.2%-55.8%). TEAEs with incidences of ≥5% in any AP group were dry mouth, somnolence, sedation, headache, diarrhea, cough, and insomnia. Most TEAEs were mild or moderate in severity for all groups. Rates of serious TEAEs were low and similar between groups (0%–7.0%).
Statistically significant (P<.05) decreases from baseline were observed in the OLA group that switched to LUMA in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol with significant decreases thereafter on LUMA. Statistically significant decreases in prolactin levels were observed in both the RIS/PAL (P<.0001) and OLA (P<.05) groups. Patients switched from RIS/PAL to LUMA showed significant (P<.05) decreases for body mass index, waist circumference, and weight. At follow-up, 2 weeks after patients switched back from LUMA to another AP, none of the decreases in laboratory parameters or body morphology observed while on LUMA maintained significance.
Those switching from QET had significant improvements from baseline at Day 42 in PANSS Total score (mean change from baseline −3.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] −5.27, −1.68; P<.001) and CGI-S Total score (mean change from baseline −0.24; 95% CI, −0.38, −0.10; P<.01).
Conclusion
In outpatients with stable schizophrenia, LUMA 42 mg treatment was well tolerated in patients switching from a variety of previous APs. Patients switching from RIS/PAL or OLA to LUMA had significant improvements in cardiometabolic and prolactin parameters. These data further support the favorable safety, tolerability, and efficacy of LUMA in patients with schizophrenia.
The collision of a gravitationally driven horizontal current with a barrier following release from a confining lock is investigated using a shallow water model of the motion, together with a sophisticated boundary condition capturing the local interaction. The boundary condition permits several overtopping modes: supercritical, subcritical and blocked flow. The model is analysed both mathematically and numerically to reveal aspects of the unsteady motion and to compute the proportion of the fluid trapped upstream of the barrier. Several problems are treated. Firstly, the idealised problem of a uniform incident current is analysed to classify the unsteady dynamical regimes. Then, the extreme regimes of a very close or distant barrier are tackled, showing the progression of the interaction through the overtopping modes. Next, the trapped volume of fluid at late times is investigated numerically, demonstrating regimes in which the volume is determined purely by volumetric considerations, and others where transient inertial effects are significant. For a Boussinesq gravity current, even when the volume of the confined region behind the barrier is equal to the fluid volume, $30\,\%$ of the fluid escapes the domain, and a confined volume three times larger is required for the overtopped volume to be negligible. For a subaerial dam-break flow, the proportion that escapes is in excess of $60\,\%$ when the confined volume equals the fluid volume, and a barrier as tall as the initial release is required for negligible overtopping. Finally, we compare our predictions with experiments, showing a good agreement across a range of parameters.
Sizeable bodies of qualitative research now report on men’s post-surgical experiences of two cancers – breast cancer in men (BCiM) and prostate cancer (PCa). This chapter targets how cisgender men’s social and bodily ageing may mediate their post-mastectomy narratives compared to the narratives of men post-prostatectomy. Notably, BCiM and PCa are the experiences of ageing men. The median age for men’s breast cancer (BC) diagnosis is about 68 (Konduri et al, 2020); similarly, the median age of a PCa diagnosis is late onset, commonly in men’s mid-to-late 60s (Droz et al, 2010). Few studies have called attention to the place of corporeal and social ageing as an inseparable dimension of men’s cancer journey. As well, we are unaware of any comparative analysis of the experiences of men with BC and men with PCa after their surgical treatment. The diagnosis and treatment of BCiM and PCa are known to fundamentally shake men’s identities as men, drawing into question their embodied masculine self (for example, France et al, 2000; Gray et al, 2002b). By drawing on the available qualitative research literature, we summarise how ageing men wrestle with and talk about the interwoven experiences of getting older and having a gendered cancer.
Cancer, ageing and masculinities
Comparing men’s post-surgical experiences with prostate cancer and breast cancer is particularly salient because they are oppositely gendered cancers in the public imagination. One is the most known and second deadliest cancer among men. Data for the US and the UK estimate that one in eight men in will develop and live with prostate cancer in his lifetime (American Cancer Society, 2021; Cancer Research UK, 2021).
Unlike prostate cancer being a sex-specific disease, breast cancer is not exclusively a malignancy of one sex. Men too have breasts though very rarely breast cancer. BCiM barely accounts for 1 per cent of newly diagnosed BC cases worldwide and represents less than 1 per cent of new cancers diagnosed in men, slightly more than testicular or penile cancer (World Health Organization, 2021).
Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions.
Methods
We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011–2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016–2018, LS2: 2018–2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample.
Results
Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10–30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9–92.5% of 12-month SAs.
Conclusions
An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.
We present a timeseries of 14CO2 for the period 1910–2021 recorded by annual plants collected in the southwestern United States, centered near Flagstaff, Arizona. This timeseries is dominated by five commonly occurring annual plant species in the region, which is considered broadly representative of the southern Colorado Plateau. Most samples (1910–2015) were previously archived herbarium specimens, with additional samples harvested from field experiments in 2015–2021. We used this novel timeseries to develop a smoothed local record with uncertainties for “bomb spike” 14C dating of recent terrestrial organic matter. Our results highlight the potential importance of local records, as we document a delayed arrival of the 1963–1964 bomb spike peak, lower values in the 1980s, and elevated values in the last decade in comparison to the most current Northern Hemisphere Zone 2 record. It is impossible to retroactively collect atmospheric samples, but archived annual plants serve as faithful scribes: samples from herbaria around the Earth may be an under-utilized resource to improve understanding of the modern carbon cycle.
In UK males, prostate cancer is the most common cancer, with over 47,500 diagnosed annually. Radiotherapy is a highly effective curative treatment but can be limited by dose to surrounding normal-tissues such as the rectum. Radiation to the rectum can be reduced by increasing the distance between prostate and rectum with a hydrogel spacer. Despite National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidance, spacers are not widely funded in the UK. Limited funding has necessitated patient prioritization, without any existing consensus on method.
Studies have shown generally homogenous results in reduction of rectal toxicity across assessed subgroups, but the requirement to prioritize remains. One way of addressing the appropriate use of beneficial health technologies is the inclusion of end-user experts in decision-making. The study aim was to identify consensus among radiation oncologists on patient prioritization for rectal hydrogel spacers.
Methods
We conducted a Delphi study where six leading clinical oncologists and one urologist from across the UK experienced in using rectal hydrogel spacers participated in two rounds of online questionnaires and two virtual advisory board meetings.
Results
The experts estimated that 83 percent of patients who could potentially benefit from a spacer were denied access. Overall, ten points of consensus were reached. Key ones concerning patient-access were:
• Spacer use in eligible patients significantly reduces radiation dose to the rectum and toxicity-related adverse events.
• Increased benefit is expected in patients on anticoagulation, with diabetes and with inflammatory bowel disease.
• Increased benefit can be expected with ultra-hypofractionated radiotherapy, but radiotherapy modality is not a key consideration for patient selection.
• Patients should have the opportunity to actively participate in the discussion regarding the use of a spacer.
Conclusions
Currently, not all patients who would benefit can access funding for hydrogel spacers. Consensus in this study indicates that appropriate health policy and funding mechanisms are warranted for patients, to provide equitable access to technologies improving quality of life.
Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).
Methods
A 2018–2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.
Results
In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.
Conclusions
Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.
To examine differences in surgical practices between salaried and fee-for-service (FFS) surgeons for two common degenerative spine conditions. Surgeons may offer different treatments for similar conditions on the basis of their compensation mechanism.
Methods:
The study assessed the practices of 63 spine surgeons across eight Canadian provinces (39 FFS surgeons and 24 salaried) who performed surgery for two lumbar conditions: stable spinal stenosis and degenerative spondylolisthesis. The study included a multicenter, ambispective review of consecutive spine surgery patients enrolled in the Canadian Spine Outcomes and Research Network registry between October 2012 and July 2018. The primary outcome was the difference in type of procedures performed between the two groups. Secondary study variables included surgical characteristics, baseline patient factors, and patient-reported outcome.
Results:
For stable spinal stenosis (n = 2234), salaried surgeons performed statistically fewer uninstrumented fusion (p < 0.05) than FFS surgeons. For degenerative spondylolisthesis (n = 1292), salaried surgeons performed significantly more instrumentation plus interbody fusions (p < 0.05). There were no statistical differences in patient-reported outcomes between the two groups.
Conclusions:
Surgeon compensation was associated with different approaches to stable lumbar spinal stenosis and degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis. Salaried surgeons chose a more conservative approach to spinal stenosis and a more aggressive approach to degenerative spondylolisthesis, which highlights that remuneration is likely a minor determinant in the differences in practice of spinal surgery in Canada. Further research is needed to further elucidate which variables, other than patient demographics and financial incentives, influence surgical decision-making.
Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.
Methods
This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018–2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.
Results
32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.
Conclusions
Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.
Obesity increases the risk of post-operative arrhythmias in adults undergoing cardiac surgery, but little is known regarding the impact of obesity on post-operative arrhythmias after CHD surgery.
Methods:
Patients undergoing CHD surgery from 2007 to 2019 were prospectively enrolled in the parent study. Telemetry was assessed daily, with documentation of all arrhythmias. Patients aged 2–20 years were categorised by body mass index percentile for age and sex (underweight <5, normal 5–85, overweight 85–95, and obese >95). Patients aged >20 years were categorised using absolute body mass index. We investigated the impact of body mass index category on arrhythmias using univariate and multivariate analysis.
Results:
There were 1250 operative cases: 12% underweight, 65% normal weight, 12% overweight, and 11% obese. Post-operative arrhythmias were observed in 38%. Body mass index was significantly higher in those with arrhythmias (18.8 versus 17.8, p = 0.003). There was a linear relationship between body mass index category and incidence of arrhythmias: underweight 33%, normal 38%, overweight 42%, and obese 45% (p = 0.017 for trend). In multivariate analysis, body mass index category was independently associated with post-operative arrhythmias (p = 0.021), with odds ratio 1.64 in obese patients as compared to normal-weight patients (p = 0.036). In addition, aortic cross-clamp time (OR 1.007, p = 0.002) and maximal vasoactive–inotropic score in the first 48 hours (OR 1.03, p = 0.04) were associated with post-operative arrhythmias.
Conclusion:
Body mass index is independently associated with incidence of post-operative arrhythmias in children after CHD surgery.