A national need is to prepare for and respond to accidental or intentional disasters categorized as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive (CBRNE). These incidents require specific subject-matter expertise, yet have commonalities. We identify 7 core elements comprising CBRNE science that require integration for effective preparedness planning and public health and medical response and recovery. These core elements are (1) basic and clinical sciences, (2) modeling and systems management, (3) planning, (4) response and incident management, (5) recovery and resilience, (6) lessons learned, and (7) continuous improvement. A key feature is the ability of relevant subject matter experts to integrate information into response operations. We propose the CBRNE medical operations science support expert as a professional who (1) understands that CBRNE incidents require an integrated systems approach, (2) understands the key functions and contributions of CBRNE science practitioners, (3) helps direct strategic and tactical CBRNE planning and responses through first-hand experience, and (4) provides advice to senior decision-makers managing response activities. Recognition of both CBRNE science as a distinct competency and the establishment of the CBRNE medical operations science support expert informs the public of the enormous progress made, broadcasts opportunities for new talent, and enhances the sophistication and analytic expertise of senior managers planning for and responding to CBRNE incidents.

Financial and economic sanctions are often adopted to serve multiple ends, including deterrence and prevention, but they are best understood as a tool to incentivize change in a target's behavior. In pursuit of this coercive objective, it is generally—but not always—the case that sanctions are more effective when they are imposed multilaterally, and the broader the coalition the better. This is because multilateral sanctions leverage the diverse sources of pressure that coalition partners can bring to bear on a target and carry with them the legitimacy of broad international support. Taken to its extreme, this argument may suggest that sanctions should always be multilateral, whether adopted through the United Nations, another forum, or an ad hoc coalition. But as we explain below, there are at least two significant reasons that militate in favor of unilateral sanctions. First, within the broad limits of international law, every country must retain the authority to impose sanctions to protect its sovereign security interests, even when it cannot muster a coalition of like-minded allies or a sufficient number of votes—and avoid a veto—on the UN Security Council. Second, imposing “smart” sanctions is actually a difficult business, requiring a complex administrative apparatus to design, build, implement, enforce, and defend them. International institutions, including the United Nations, are inherently less able to build the necessary structures to effectively enforce sanctions. For all of these reasons, two systems of sanctions—one national, one supranational—will likely coexist into the future.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Objective: Approximately 86 million people in the US have prediabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent diabetes. Further, the effectiveness of these therapies varies with individual risk of progression to diabetes. We estimated the value of targeting those individuals at highest diabetes risk for treatment, compared to treating all individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: METHODS: Using a micro-simulation model, we estimated total lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for individuals receiving: (1) lifestyle intervention involving an intensive program focused on healthy diet and exercise, (2) metformin administration, or (3) no intervention. The model combines several components. First a Cox proportional hazards model predicted onset of diabetes from baseline characteristics for each pre-diabetic individual and yielded a probability distribution for each alternative. We derived this risk model from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) clinical trial data and the follow-up study DPP-OS. The Michigan Diabetes Research Center Model for Diabetes then estimated costs and outcomes for individuals after diabetes diagnosis using standard of care diabetes treatment. Based on individual costs and QALE, we evaluated NMB of the two interventions at population and individual levels, stratified by risk quintiles for diabetes onset at 3 years. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results: Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits for all eligible individuals. Metformin’s NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use among individuals who would not benefit, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500-$800 per person, depending on duration of treatment effect. When treating only 20% of the population (e.g., due to capacity constraints), targeting conferred a NMB of $14,000-$18,000 per person for lifestyle modification and $16,000-$20,000 for metformin. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Conclusions: Metformin confers value only among higher risk individuals, so targeting its use is worthwhile. While lifestyle modification confers value for all eligible individuals, prioritizing the intervention to high risk patients when capacity is constrained substantially increases societal benefits.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging cause of viral hepatitis worldwide. Recently, HEV-7 has been shown to infect camels and humans. We studied HEV seroprevalence in dromedary camels and among Bedouins, Arabs (Muslims, none-Bedouins) and Jews and assessed factors associated with anti-HEV seropositivity. Serum samples from dromedary camels (n = 86) were used to determine camel anti-HEV IgG and HEV RNA positivity. Human samples collected between 2009 and 2016 from >20 years old Bedouins (n = 305), non-Bedouin Arabs (n = 320) and Jews (n = 195), were randomly selected using an age-stratified sampling design. Human HEV IgG levels were determined using Wantai IgG ELISA assay. Of the samples obtained from camels, 68.6% were anti-HEV positive. Among the human populations, Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs had a significantly higher prevalence of HEV antibodies (21.6% and 15.0%, respectively) compared with the Jewish population (3.1%). Seropositivity increased significantly with age in all human populations, reaching 47.6% and 34.8% among ⩾40 years old, in Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs, respectively. The high seropositivity in camels and in ⩾40 years old Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs suggests that HEV is endemic in Israel. The low HEV seroprevalence in Jews could be attributed to higher socio-economic status.

A space X is said to be Lipschitz 1-connected if every Lipschitz loop 𝛾 : S1 → X bounds a O (Lip(𝛾))-Lipschitz disk f : D2 → X. A Lipschitz 1-connected space admits a quadratic isoperimetric inequality, but it is unknown whether the converse is true. Cornulier and Tessera showed that certain solvable Lie groups have quadratic isoperimetric inequalities, and we extend their result to show that these groups are Lipschitz 1-connected.