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Total cost estimates for crime in the USA are both out-of-date and incomplete. We estimated incidence and costs of personal crimes (both violent and non-violent) and property crimes in 2017. Incidence came from national arrest data, multi-state estimates of police-reported crimes per arrest, national victimization and road crash surveys, and police underreporting studies. We updated and expanded upon published unit costs. Estimated crime costs totaled $2.6 trillion ($620 billion in monetary costs plus quality of life losses valued at $1.95 trillion; 95 % uncertainty interval $2.2–$3.0 trillion). Violent crime accounted for 85 % of costs. Principal contributors to the 10.9 million quality-adjusted life years lost were sexual violence, physical assault/robbery, and child maltreatment. Monetary expenditures caused by criminal victimization represent 3 % of Gross Domestic Product – equivalent to the amount spent on national defense. These estimates exclude the additional costs of preventing and avoiding crime such as enhanced lighting and burglar alarms. They also exclude crimes against businesses and most white-collar and corporate offenses.
Amongst patients with CHD, the time of transition to adulthood is associated with lapses in care leading to significant morbidity. The purpose of this study was to identify differences in perceptions between parents and teens in regard to transition readiness.
Responses were collected from 175 teen–parent pairs via the validated CHD Transition Readiness survey and an information request checklist. The survey was distributed via an electronic tablet at a routine clinic visit.
Parents reported a perceived knowledge gap of 29.2% (the percentage of survey items in which a parent believes their teen does not know), compared to teens self-reporting an average of 25.9% of survey items in which they feel deficient (p = 0.01). Agreement was lowest for long-term medical needs, physical activities allowed, insurance, and education. In regard to self-management behaviours, agreement between parent and teen was slight to moderate (weighted κ statistic = 0.18 to 0.51). For self-efficacy, agreement ranged from slight to fair (weighted κ = 0.16 to 0.28). Teens were more likely to request information than their parents (79% versus 65% requesting at least one item) particularly in regard to pregnancy/contraception and insurance.
Parents and teens differ in several key perceptions regarding knowledge, behaviours, and feelings related to the management of heart disease. Specifically, parents perceive a higher knowledge deficit, teens perceive higher self-efficacy, and parents and teens agree that self-management is low.
A case–case–control investigation (216 patients) examined the risk factors and outcomes of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacter (CR-En) acquisition. Recent exposure to fluoroquinolones, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and rapidly fatal McCabe condition were independent predictors for acquisition. Acquiring CR-En was independently associated with discharge to a long-term care facility after being admitted from home.
Background:Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an important nosocomial pathogen associated with intrinsic and acquired resistance mechanisms to major classes of antibiotics. To better understand clinical risk factors for drug-resistant P. aeruginosa infection, decision-tree models for the prediction of fluoroquinolone and carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa were constructed and compared to multivariable logistic regression models using performance characteristics. Methods: In total, 5,636 patients admitted to 4 hospitals within a New York City healthcare system from 2010 to 2016 with blood, respiratory, wound, or urine cultures growing PA were included in the analysis. Presence or absence of drug-resistance was defined using the first culture of any source positive for P. aeruginosa during each hospitalization. To train and validate the prediction models, cases were randomly split (60 of 40) into training and validation datasets. Clinical decision-tree models for both fluoroquinolone and carbapenem resistance were built from the training dataset using 21 clinical variables of interest, and multivariable logistic regression models were built using the 16 clinical variables associated with resistance in bivariate analyses. Decision-tree models were optimized using K-fold cross validation, and performance characteristics between the 4 models were compared. Results: From 2010 through 2016, prevalence of fluoroquinolone and carbapenem resistance was 32% and 18%, respectively. For fluoroquinolone resistance, the logistic regression algorithm attained a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.57 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.73 (sensitivity, 0.27; specificity, 0.90) and the decision-tree algorithm attained a PPV of 0.65 and an NPV of 0.72 (sensitivity 0.21, specificity 0.95). For carbapenem resistance, the logistic regression algorithm attained a PPV of 0.53 and a NPV of 0.85 (sensitivity 0.20, specificity 0.96) and the decision-tree algorithm attained a PPV of 0.59 and an NPV of 0.84 (sensitivity 0.22, specificity 0.96). The decision-tree partitioning algorithm identified prior fluoroquinolone resistance, SNF stay, sex, and length-of-stay as variables of greatest importance for fluoroquinolone resistance compared to prior carbapenem resistance, age, and length-of-stay for carbapenem resistance. The highest-performing decision tree for fluoroquinolone resistance is illustrated in Fig. 1. Conclusions: Supervised machine-learning techniques may facilitate prediction of P. aeruginosa resistance and risk factors driving resistance patterns in hospitalized patients. Such techniques may be applied to readily available clinical information from hospital electronic health records to aid with clinical decision making.
Several studies suggest significant relationships between migration and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) but there are discrepant results. Given that no studies to date have included a pathological control group, the specificity of the results in ASD can be questioned.
To compare the migration experience (premigration, migratory trip, postmigration) in ASD and non-ASD pathological control groups, and study the relationships between migration and autism severity.
Parents’ and grandparents’ migrant status was compared in 30 prepubertal boys with ASD and 30 prepubertal boys without ASD but with language disorders, using a questionnaire including Human Development Index (HDI)/Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) of native countries. Autism severity was assessed using the Child Autism Rating Scale, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule and Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised scales.
The parents’ and grandparents’ migrant status frequency did not differ between ASD and control groups and was not associated with autism severity. The HDI/IHDI values of native countries were significantly lower for parents and grandparents of children with ASD compared with the controls, especially for paternal grandparents. Furthermore, HDI/IDHI levels from the paternal line (father and especially paternal grandparents) were significantly negatively correlated with autism severity, particularly for social interaction impairments.
In this study, parents’ and/or grandparents’ migrant status did not discriminate ASD and pathological control groups and did not contribute either to autism severity. However, the HDI/IHDI results suggest that social adversity-related stress experienced in native countries, especially by paternal grandparents, is potentially a traumatic experience that may play a role in ASD development. A ‘premigration theory of autism’ is then proposed.
Previous genetic association studies have failed to identify loci robustly associated with sepsis, and there have been no published genetic association studies or polygenic risk score analyses of patients with septic shock, despite evidence suggesting genetic factors may be involved. We systematically collected genotype and clinical outcome data in the context of a randomized controlled trial from patients with septic shock to enrich the presence of disease-associated genetic variants. We performed genomewide association studies of susceptibility and mortality in septic shock using 493 patients with septic shock and 2442 population controls, and polygenic risk score analysis to assess genetic overlap between septic shock risk/mortality with clinically relevant traits. One variant, rs9489328, located in AL589740.1 noncoding RNA, was significantly associated with septic shock (p = 1.05 × 10–10); however, it is likely a false-positive. We were unable to replicate variants previously reported to be associated (p < 1.00 × 10–6 in previous scans) with susceptibility to and mortality from sepsis. Polygenic risk scores for hematocrit and granulocyte count were negatively associated with 28-day mortality (p = 3.04 × 10–3; p = 2.29 × 10–3), and scores for C-reactive protein levels were positively associated with susceptibility to septic shock (p = 1.44 × 10–3). Results suggest that common variants of large effect do not influence septic shock susceptibility, mortality and resolution; however, genetic predispositions to clinically relevant traits are significantly associated with increased susceptibility and mortality in septic individuals.
Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to measure health benefits. We sought to quantify and explain differences between QALY- and DALY-based cost-effectiveness ratios, and explore whether using one versus the other would materially affect conclusions about an intervention's cost-effectiveness.
We identified CEAs using both QALYs and DALYs from the Tufts Medical Center CEA Registry and Global Health CEA Registry, with a supplemental search to ensure comprehensive literature coverage. We calculated absolute and relative differences between the QALY- and DALY-based ratios, and compared ratios to common benchmarks (e.g., 1× gross domestic product per capita). We converted reported costs into US dollars.
Among eleven published CEAs reporting both QALYs and DALYs, seven focused on pharmaceuticals and infectious disease, and five were conducted in high-income countries. Four studies concluded that the intervention was “dominant” (cost-saving). Among the QALY- and DALY-based ratios reported from the remaining seven studies, absolute differences ranged from approximately $2 to $15,000 per unit of benefit, and relative differences from 6–120 percent, but most differences were modest in comparison with the ratio value itself. The values assigned to utility and disability weights explained most observed differences. In comparison with cost-effectiveness thresholds, conclusions were consistent regardless of the ratio type in ten of eleven cases.
Our results suggest that although QALY- and DALY-based ratios for the same intervention can differ, differences tend to be modest and do not materially affect comparisons to common cost-effectiveness thresholds.
To evaluate the National Health Safety Network (NHSN) hospital-onset Clostridioides difficile infection (HO-CDI) standardized infection ratio (SIR) risk adjustment for general acute-care hospitals with large numbers of intensive care unit (ICU), oncology unit, and hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) patients.
Retrospective cohort study.
Eight tertiary-care referral general hospitals in California.
We used FY 2016 data and the published 2015 rebaseline NHSN HO-CDI SIR. We compared facility-wide inpatient HO-CDI events and SIRs, with and without ICU data, oncology and/or HCT unit data, and ICU bed adjustment.
For these hospitals, the median unmodified HO-CDI SIR was 1.24 (interquartile range [IQR], 1.15–1.34); 7 hospitals qualified for the highest ICU bed adjustment; 1 hospital received the second highest ICU bed adjustment; and all had oncology-HCT units with no additional adjustment per the NHSN. Removal of ICU data and the ICU bed adjustment decreased HO-CDI events (median, −25%; IQR, −20% to −29%) but increased the SIR at all hospitals (median, 104%; IQR, 90%–105%). Removal of oncology-HCT unit data decreased HO-CDI events (median, −15%; IQR, −14% to −21%) and decreased the SIR at all hospitals (median, −8%; IQR, −4% to −11%).
For tertiary-care referral hospitals with specialized ICUs and a large number of ICU beds, the ICU bed adjustor functions as a global adjustment in the SIR calculation, accounting for the increased complexity of patients in ICUs and non-ICUs at these facilities. However, the SIR decrease with removal of oncology and HCT unit data, even with the ICU bed adjustment, suggests that an additional adjustment should be considered for oncology and HCT units within general hospitals, perhaps similar to what is done for ICU beds in the current SIR.
In Wales, devolution signified an opportunity for the Welsh government to do politics differently. In particular, there was a focus on public participation as a mechanism for improvements to the economy, social outcomes and public services (Welsh Government, 2004). In ambition, at least, the devolution experiment in Wales anticipated the development of regulations for the engagement of its citizens. This chapter considers the role of community anchor organisations in the ‘flagship’ regeneration programme of the National Assembly for Wales, ‘Communities First’, launched in 2001 and later terminated in March 2018. The programme started as a ‘bottomup’ initiative for engaging with disadvantaged communities at the margins, setting up regulatory structures to deliver that vision; became a reduced and more competitive programme from 2008/09, with more defined outcomes; and then entered its final phase in 2012, with ‘clusters’ of communities that were expected to deliver governmentdriven outcomes on health, learning and, in particular, employability through a system of results-based accountability (RBA). In the process, regulation for engagement shifted to regulatory structures and processes that controlled engagement: the regulation of engagement.
Other research has traced the evolution of the programme (Pearce, 2012; Dicks, 2014) in the context of a bold policy experiment in a devolved context while the programme was still live. This chapter, however, unpicks the story of its evolution and demise from the perspectives of community development advisors and community development practitioners, the latter based in two community organisations in South Wales: South Riverside Community Development Centre (SRCDC) in Cardiff and 3Gs Community Development Trust in Merthyr Tydfil. Both organisations were involved in the Productive Margins programme and in the design and analysis of this research. Both pre-existed the Communities First programme and were charged with its delivery to local people. We look at the regulatory context in which these organisations found themselves and how they negotiated the demands of the state-funded programme, on the one hand, and their accountabilities to the communities that they believed they represented, on the other. A key question remains as to whether the involvement of community organisations in state-funded programmes can facilitate regulation for engagement for social change or whether their power to improve the well-being of the communities they represent might better be served in providing alternative modes of living.
A new model of radicalisation has appeared in Western countries since the 2010s. Radical groups are smaller, less hierarchical and are mainly composed of young, homegrown individuals. The aim of this review is to decipher the profiles of the European adolescents and young adults who have embraced the cause of radical Islamism and to define the role of psychiatry in dealing with this issue.
We performed a systematic search in several databases from January 2010 to July 2017 and reviewed the relevant studies that included European adolescents and/or young adults and presented empirical data.
In total, 22 qualitative and quantitative studies were reviewed from various fields and using different methodologies. Psychotic disorders are rare among radicalised youths. However, they show numerous risk factors common with adolescent psychopathologies. We develop a comprehensive three-level model to explain the phenomenon of radicalisation among young Europeans: (1) individual risk factors include psychological vulnerabilities such as early experiences of abandonment, perceived injustice and personal uncertainty; (2) micro-environmental risk factors include family dysfunction and friendships with radicalised individuals; (3) societal risk factors include geopolitical events and societal changes such as Durkheim’s concept of anomie. Some systemic factors are also implicated as there is a specific encounter between recruiters and the individual. The former use sectarian techniques to isolate and dehumanise the latter and to offer him a new societal model.
There are many similarities between psychopathological manifestations of adolescence and mechanisms at stake during the radicalisation process. As a consequence, and despite the rarity of psychotic disorders, mental health professionals have a role to play in the treatment and understanding of radical engagement among European youth. Studies with empirical data are limited, and more research should be promoted (in particular in females and in non-Muslim communities) to better understand the phenomenon and to propose recommendations for prevention and treatment.
A national need is to prepare for and respond to accidental or intentional disasters categorized as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive (CBRNE). These incidents require specific subject-matter expertise, yet have commonalities. We identify 7 core elements comprising CBRNE science that require integration for effective preparedness planning and public health and medical response and recovery. These core elements are (1) basic and clinical sciences, (2) modeling and systems management, (3) planning, (4) response and incident management, (5) recovery and resilience, (6) lessons learned, and (7) continuous improvement. A key feature is the ability of relevant subject matter experts to integrate information into response operations. We propose the CBRNE medical operations science support expert as a professional who (1) understands that CBRNE incidents require an integrated systems approach, (2) understands the key functions and contributions of CBRNE science practitioners, (3) helps direct strategic and tactical CBRNE planning and responses through first-hand experience, and (4) provides advice to senior decision-makers managing response activities. Recognition of both CBRNE science as a distinct competency and the establishment of the CBRNE medical operations science support expert informs the public of the enormous progress made, broadcasts opportunities for new talent, and enhances the sophistication and analytic expertise of senior managers planning for and responding to CBRNE incidents.
Nurses’ broad knowledge and treatment skills are instrumental to disaster management. Roles, responsibilities, and practice take on additional dimensions to their regular roles during these times. Despite this crucial position, the literature indicates a gap between their actual work in emergencies and the investment in training and establishing response plans.
To explore trends in disaster nursing reflected in professional literature, link these trends to current disaster nursing competencies and standards, and reflect based on the literature how nursing can better contribute to disaster management.
A systematic literature review, conducted using six electronic databases, and examination of peer-reviewed English journal articles. Selected publications were examined to explore the domains of disaster nursing: policy, education, practice, research. Additional considerations were the scope of the paper: local, national, regional, or international. The International Nursing Councils’ (ICN) Disaster-Nursing competencies are examined in this context.
The search yielded 171 articles that met the inclusion criteria. Articles were published between 2001 and 2018, showing an annual increase. Of the articles, 48% (n = 82) were research studies and 12% (n = 20) were defined as dealing with management issues. Classified by domain, 48% (n = 82) dealt with practical implications of disaster nursing and 35% (n = 60) discussed educational issues. Only 11% of the papers reviewed policy matters, and of these, two included research. Classified by scope, about 11% (n =18) had an international perspective.
Current standards attribute a greater role to disaster-nursing in leadership in disaster preparedness, particularly from a policy perspective. However, this study indicates that only about 11% of publications reviewed policy issues and management matters. A high percentage of educational publications discuss the importance of including disaster nursing issues in the curricula. In order to advance this area, there is a need to conduct dedicated studies.
OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Objective: Approximately 86 million people in the US have prediabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent diabetes. Further, the effectiveness of these therapies varies with individual risk of progression to diabetes. We estimated the value of targeting those individuals at highest diabetes risk for treatment, compared to treating all individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: METHODS: Using a micro-simulation model, we estimated total lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for individuals receiving: (1) lifestyle intervention involving an intensive program focused on healthy diet and exercise, (2) metformin administration, or (3) no intervention. The model combines several components. First a Cox proportional hazards model predicted onset of diabetes from baseline characteristics for each pre-diabetic individual and yielded a probability distribution for each alternative. We derived this risk model from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) clinical trial data and the follow-up study DPP-OS. The Michigan Diabetes Research Center Model for Diabetes then estimated costs and outcomes for individuals after diabetes diagnosis using standard of care diabetes treatment. Based on individual costs and QALE, we evaluated NMB of the two interventions at population and individual levels, stratified by risk quintiles for diabetes onset at 3 years. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Results: Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits for all eligible individuals. Metformin’s NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use among individuals who would not benefit, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500-$800 per person, depending on duration of treatment effect. When treating only 20% of the population (e.g., due to capacity constraints), targeting conferred a NMB of $14,000-$18,000 per person for lifestyle modification and $16,000-$20,000 for metformin. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Conclusions: Metformin confers value only among higher risk individuals, so targeting its use is worthwhile. While lifestyle modification confers value for all eligible individuals, prioritizing the intervention to high risk patients when capacity is constrained substantially increases societal benefits.
Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging cause of viral hepatitis worldwide. Recently, HEV-7 has been shown to infect camels and humans. We studied HEV seroprevalence in dromedary camels and among Bedouins, Arabs (Muslims, none-Bedouins) and Jews and assessed factors associated with anti-HEV seropositivity. Serum samples from dromedary camels (n = 86) were used to determine camel anti-HEV IgG and HEV RNA positivity. Human samples collected between 2009 and 2016 from >20 years old Bedouins (n = 305), non-Bedouin Arabs (n = 320) and Jews (n = 195), were randomly selected using an age-stratified sampling design. Human HEV IgG levels were determined using Wantai IgG ELISA assay. Of the samples obtained from camels, 68.6% were anti-HEV positive. Among the human populations, Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs had a significantly higher prevalence of HEV antibodies (21.6% and 15.0%, respectively) compared with the Jewish population (3.1%). Seropositivity increased significantly with age in all human populations, reaching 47.6% and 34.8% among ⩾40 years old, in Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs, respectively. The high seropositivity in camels and in ⩾40 years old Bedouins and non-Bedouin Arabs suggests that HEV is endemic in Israel. The low HEV seroprevalence in Jews could be attributed to higher socio-economic status.
A space X is said to be Lipschitz 1-connected if every Lipschitz loop 𝛾 : S1 → X bounds a O (Lip(𝛾))-Lipschitz disk f : D2 → X. A Lipschitz 1-connected space admits a quadratic isoperimetric inequality, but it is unknown whether the converse is true. Cornulier and Tessera showed that certain solvable Lie groups have quadratic isoperimetric inequalities, and we extend their result to show that these groups are Lipschitz 1-connected.
Financial and economic sanctions are often adopted to serve multiple ends, including deterrence and prevention, but they are best understood as a tool to incentivize change in a target's behavior. In pursuit of this coercive objective, it is generally—but not always—the case that sanctions are more effective when they are imposed multilaterally, and the broader the coalition the better. This is because multilateral sanctions leverage the diverse sources of pressure that coalition partners can bring to bear on a target and carry with them the legitimacy of broad international support. Taken to its extreme, this argument may suggest that sanctions should always be multilateral, whether adopted through the United Nations, another forum, or an ad hoc coalition. But as we explain below, there are at least two significant reasons that militate in favor of unilateral sanctions. First, within the broad limits of international law, every country must retain the authority to impose sanctions to protect its sovereign security interests, even when it cannot muster a coalition of like-minded allies or a sufficient number of votes—and avoid a veto—on the UN Security Council. Second, imposing “smart” sanctions is actually a difficult business, requiring a complex administrative apparatus to design, build, implement, enforce, and defend them. International institutions, including the United Nations, are inherently less able to build the necessary structures to effectively enforce sanctions. For all of these reasons, two systems of sanctions—one national, one supranational—will likely coexist into the future.