Cohort studies demonstrate that people who later develop schizophrenia, on average, present with mild cognitive deficits in childhood and endure a decline in adolescence and adulthood. Yet, tremendous heterogeneity exists during the course of psychotic disorders, including the prodromal period. Individuals identified to be in this period (known as CHR-P) are at heightened risk for developing psychosis (~35%) and begin to exhibit cognitive deficits. Cognitive impairments in CHR-P (as a singular group) appear to be relatively stable or ameliorate over time. A sizeable proportion has been described to decline on measures related to processing speed or verbal learning. The purpose of this analysis is to use data-driven approaches to identify latent subgroups among CHR-P based on cognitive trajectories. This will yield a clearer understanding of the timing and presentation of both general and domain-specific deficits.

Participants included 684 young people at CHR-P (ages 12–35) from the second cohort of the North American Prodromal Longitudinal Study. Performance on the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB) and the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI-I) was assessed at baseline, 12-, and 24-months. Tested MCCB domains include verbal learning, speed of processing, working memory, and reasoning & problem-solving. Sex- and age-based norms were utilized. The Oral Reading subtest on the Wide Range Achievement Test (WRAT4) indexed pre-morbid IQ at baseline. Latent class mixture models were used to identify distinct trajectories of cognitive performance across two years. One- to 5-class solutions were compared to decide the best solution. This determination depended on goodness-of-fit metrics, interpretability of latent trajectories, and proportion of subgroup membership (>5%).

A one-class solution was found for WASI-I Full-Scale IQ, as people at CHR-P predominantly demonstrated an average IQ that increased gradually over time. For individual domains, one-class solutions also best fit the trajectories for speed of processing, verbal learning, and working memory domains. Two distinct subgroups were identified on one of the executive functioning domains, reasoning and problem-solving (NAB Mazes). The sample divided into unimpaired performance with mild improvement over time (Class I, 74%) and persistent performance two standard deviations below average (Class II, 26%). Between these classes, no significant differences were found for biological sex, age, years of education, or likelihood of conversion to psychosis (OR = 1.68, 95% CI 0.86 to 3.14). Individuals assigned to Class II did demonstrate a lower WASI-I IQ at baseline (96.3 vs. 106.3) and a lower premorbid IQ (100.8 vs. 106.2).

Youth at CHR-P demonstrate relatively homogeneous trajectories across time in terms of general cognition and most individual domains. In contrast, two distinct subgroups were observed with higher cognitive skills involving planning and foresight, and they notably exist independent of conversion outcome. Overall, these findings replicate and extend results from a recently published latent class analysis that examined 12-month trajectories among CHR-P using a different cognitive battery (Allott et al., 2022). Findings inform which individuals at CHR-P may be most likely to benefit from cognitive remediation and can inform about the substrates of deficits by establishing meaningful subtypes.

Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models.

Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either ‘long’ or ‘short’ symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis.

The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78).

These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

While comorbidity of clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) status and social anxiety is well-established, it remains unclear how social anxiety and positive symptoms covary over time in this population. The present study aimed to determine whether there are more than one covariant trajectory of social anxiety and positive symptoms in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study cohort (NAPLS 2) and, if so, to test whether the different trajectory subgroups differ in terms of genetic and environmental risk factors for psychotic disorders and general functional outcome.

In total, 764 CHR individuals were evaluated at baseline for social anxiety and psychosis risk symptom severity and followed up every 6 months for 2 years. Application of group-based multi-trajectory modeling discerned three subgroups based on the covariant trajectories of social anxiety and positive symptoms over 2 years.

One of the subgroups showed sustained social anxiety over time despite moderate recovery in positive symptoms, while the other two showed recovery of social anxiety below clinically significant thresholds, along with modest to moderate recovery in positive symptom severity. The trajectory group with sustained social anxiety had poorer long-term global functional outcomes than the other trajectory groups. In addition, compared with the other two trajectory groups, membership in the group with sustained social anxiety was predicted by higher levels of polygenic risk for schizophrenia and environmental stress exposures.

Together, these analyses indicate differential relevance of sustained v. remitting social anxiety symptoms in the CHR-P population, which in turn may carry implications for differential intervention strategies.

Although research has shown that exposure to potentially traumatic and morally injurious events is associated with psychological symptoms among veterans, knowledge regarding functioning impacts remains limited.

A population-based sample of post-9/11 veterans completed measures of intimate relationship, health, and work functioning at approximately 9, 15, 21, and 27 months after leaving service. Moral injury, posttraumatic stress, and depression were assessed at ~9 months post-separation. We used Latent Growth Mixture Models to identify discrete classes characterized by unique trajectories of change in functioning over time and to examine predictors of class membership.

Veterans were assigned to one of four functioning trajectories: high and stable, high and decreasing, moderate and increasing, and moderate and stable. Whereas posttraumatic stress, depression, and moral injury associated with perpetration and betrayal predicted worse outcomes at baseline across multiple functioning domains, moral injury associated with perpetration and depression most reliably predicted assignment to trajectories characterized by relatively poor or declining functioning.

Moral injury contributes to functional problems beyond what is explained by posttraumatic stress and depression, and moral injury due to perpetration and depression most reliably predicted assignment to trajectories characterized by functional impairment over time.

Much of the interest in youth at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis has been in understanding conversion. Recent literature has suggested that less than 25% of those who meet established criteria for being at CHR of psychosis go on to develop a psychotic illness. However, little is known about the outcome of those who do not make the transition to psychosis. The aim of this paper was to examine clinical symptoms and functioning in the second North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) of those individuals whose by the end of 2 years in the study had not developed psychosis.

In NAPLS-2 278 CHR participants completed 2-year follow-ups and had not made the transition to psychosis. At 2-years the sample was divided into three groups – those whose symptoms were in remission, those who were still symptomatic and those whose symptoms had become more severe.

There was no difference between those who remitted early in the study compared with those who remitted at one or 2 years. At 2-years, those in remission had fewer symptoms and improved functioning compared with the two symptomatic groups. However, all three groups had poorer social functioning and cognition than healthy controls.

A detailed examination of the clinical and functional outcomes of those who did not make the transition to psychosis did not contribute to predicting who may make the transition or who may have an earlier remission of attenuated psychotic symptoms.