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The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the development of decentralized clinical trials (DCT). DCT’s are an important and pragmatic method for assessing health outcomes yet comprise only a minority of clinical trials, and few published methodologies exist. In this report, we detail the operational components of COVID-OUT, a decentralized, multicenter, quadruple-blinded, randomized trial that rapidly delivered study drugs nation-wide. The trial examined three medications (metformin, ivermectin, and fluvoxamine) as outpatient treatment of SARS-CoV-2 for their effectiveness in preventing severe or long COVID-19. Decentralized strategies included HIPAA-compliant electronic screening and consenting, prepacking investigational product to accelerate delivery after randomization, and remotely confirming participant-reported outcomes. Of the 1417 individuals with the intention-to-treat sample, the remote nature of the study caused an additional 94 participants to not take any doses of study drug. Therefore, 1323 participants were in the modified intention-to-treat sample, which was the a priori primary study sample. Only 1.4% of participants were lost to follow-up. Decentralized strategies facilitated the successful completion of the COVID-OUT trial without any in-person contact by expediting intervention delivery, expanding trial access geographically, limiting contagion exposure, and making it easy for participants to complete follow-up visits. Remotely completed consent and follow-up facilitated enrollment.
Background:Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) often recurs in patients aged ≥65 years and those with comorbidities. Clinical trials often exclude patients with history of immunosuppression, malignancy, renal insufficiency, or other comorbidities. In a phase 3 trial (ECOSPOR III), SER-109 was superior to placebo in reducing recurrent CDI (rCDI) risk at week 8 and was well tolerated. We report integrated safety data for SER-109 in a broad patient population through week 24 from phase 3 studies: ECOSPOR III and ECOSPOR IV. Methods: ECOSPOR III was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted in participants with ≥2 CDI recurrences randomized 1:1 to placebo or SER-109. ECOSPOR IV was an open-label, single-arm study conducted in 263 patients with rCDI enrolled in 2 cohorts: (1) rollover participants from ECOSPOR III with on-study recurrence and (2) participants with ≥1 CDI recurrence, inclusive of the current episode. In both studies, the investigational product was administered as 4 oral capsules over 3 days. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were collected through week 8; serious TEAEs and TEAEs of special interest (ie, bacteremia, abscess, meningitis) were collected through week 24. Results: In total, 349 participants received SER-109 in ECOSPOR III and/or ECOSPOR IV (mean age 64.2; 68.8% female). Chronic diseases included cardiac disease (31.2%), immunocompromised or immunosuppressed (21.2%), diabetes (18.9% ), and renal impairment or failure (13.2%). Overall, 221 (63.3%) of 349 participants who received SER-109 experienced TEAEs through week 24. Most were mild to moderate and gastrointestinal. The most common (>5% of participants) treatment related TEAEs were flatulence, abdominal pain and distension, decreased appetite, constipation, nausea, fatigue, and diarrhea. No participants experienced a treatment-related TEAE leading to study withdrawal. Invasive infections were observed in 28 participants (8%); those with identified pathogens were unrelated to SER-109 species, and all were deemed unrelated to treatment by the investigators. There were 11 deaths (3.2%) and 48 participants (13.8%) with serious TEAEs, none of which were deemed treatment related. There were no clinically important differences in the safety profile across subgroups of sex, race, prior antibiotic regimen, or number of CDI recurrences. No safety signals were observed in participants with renal impairment or failure, diabetes, cardiac disease, or immunocompromised or immunosuppressed individuals. Conclusions: In this integrated analysis of phase 3 trials, SER-109, an investigational microbiome therapeutic, was well tolerated in this vulnerable patient population with prevalent comorbidities. No infections, nor those with identified pathogens, were attributed to SER-109 or product species. This safety profile might be expected because this purified product is composed of spore-forming Firmicutes normally abundant in the healthy microbiome.
Financial support: This study was funded by Seres Therapeutics.
Despite the increasing rates of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) carriage among hospitalized patients in endemic settings, the role of active surveillance cultures and cohorting is still debated. We sought to determine the long-term effect of a multifaceted infection-control intervention on the incidence of CRAB in an endemic setting.
A prospective, quasi-experimental study was performed at a 670-bed, acute-care hospital. The study consisted of 4 phases. In phase I, basic infection control measures were used. In phase II, CRAB carriers were cohorted in a single ward with dedicated nursing and enhanced environmental cleaning. In phase III large-scale screening in high-risk units was implemented. Phase IV comprised a 15-month follow-up period.
During the baseline period, the mean incidence rate (IDR) of CRAB was 44 per 100,000 patient days (95% CI, 37.7–54.1). No significant decrease was observed during phase II (IDR, 40.8 per 100,000 patient days; 95% CI, 30.0–56.7; P = .97). During phase III, despite high compliance with control measures, ongoing transmission in several wards was observed and the mean IDR was 53.9 per 100,000 patient days (95% CI, 40.5–72.2; P = .55). In phase IV, following the implementation of large-scale screening, a significant decrease in the mean IDR was observed (25.8 per 100,000 patient days; 95% CI, 19.9–33.5; P = .03). An overall reduction of CRAB rate was observed between phase I and phase IV (rate ratio, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4–0.9; P < .001).
The comprehensive intervention that included intensiﬁed control measures with routine active screening cultures was effective in reducing the incidence of CRAB in an endemic hospital setting.
The Eighth World Congress of Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery (WCPCCS) will be held in Washington DC, USA, from Saturday, 26 August, 2023 to Friday, 1 September, 2023, inclusive. The Eighth World Congress of Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery will be the largest and most comprehensive scientific meeting dedicated to paediatric and congenital cardiac care ever held. At the time of the writing of this manuscript, The Eighth World Congress of Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery has 5,037 registered attendees (and rising) from 117 countries, a truly diverse and international faculty of over 925 individuals from 89 countries, over 2,000 individual abstracts and poster presenters from 101 countries, and a Best Abstract Competition featuring 153 oral abstracts from 34 countries. For information about the Eighth World Congress of Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery, please visit the following website: [www.WCPCCS2023.org]. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the activities related to global health and advocacy that will occur at the Eighth World Congress of Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiac Surgery.
Acknowledging the need for urgent change, we wanted to take the opportunity to bring a common voice to the global community and issue the Washington DC WCPCCS Call to Action on Addressing the Global Burden of Pediatric and Congenital Heart Diseases. A copy of this Washington DC WCPCCS Call to Action is provided in the Appendix of this manuscript. This Washington DC WCPCCS Call to Action is an initiative aimed at increasing awareness of the global burden, promoting the development of sustainable care systems, and improving access to high quality and equitable healthcare for children with heart disease as well as adults with congenital heart disease worldwide.
Patients with unbalanced common atrioventricular canal can be difficult to manage. Surgical planning often depends on pre-operative echocardiographic measurements. We aimed to determine the added utility of cardiac MRI in predicting successful biventricular repair in common atrioventricular canal.
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of children with common atrioventricular canal who underwent MRI prior to repair. Associations between MRI and echocardiographic measures and surgical outcome were tested using logistic regression, and models were compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve.
We included 28 patients (median age at MRI: 5.2 months). The optimal MRI model included the novel end-diastolic volume index (using the ratio of left ventricular end-diastolic volume to total end-diastolic volume) and the left ventricle–right ventricle angle in diastole (area under the curve 0.83, p = 0.041). End-diastolic volume index ≤ 0.18 and left ventricle–right ventricle angle in diastole ≤ 72° yield a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 81% for successful biventricular repair. The optimal multimodality model included the end-diastolic volume index and the echocardiographic atrioventricular valve index with an area under the curve of 0.87 (p = 0.026).
Cardiac MRI can successfully predict successful biventricular repair in patients with unbalanced common atrioventricular canal utilising the end-diastolic volume index alone or in combination with the MRI left ventricle–right ventricle angle in diastole or the echocardiographic atrioventricular valve index. A prospective cardiac MRI study is warranted to better define the multimodality characteristic predictive of successful biventricular surgery.
Although anesthesiology and endocrinology are two distinct branches of medicine, some recent breakthrough treatments have brought together both medical specialties, particularly those concerned with surgical sciences and critical care. Related to the use of various traditional surgical techniques, the lack of newer and safer drugs, the lack of monitoring tools, and the scarcity of critical care services in the past, managing patients with various endocrine disorders has always been perceived as being more difficult by practicing anesthesiologists.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Chronic or new symptoms after infection with severe-acute-respiratory-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been termed post-acute sequelae of Covid-19 (PASC) or Long Covid. Our objective is to present results from COVID-OUT, a phase 3 double-blind, randomized controlled trial of early outpatient treatment of Covid-19 with repurposed medications. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: COVID-OUT enrolled adults age 30 to 85 with overweight or obesity who had proof of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fewer than 7 days of symptoms. In this 2 by 3 factorial design trial of metformin, ivermectin, fluvoxamine, or exact-matching placebo of each medication, participants were randomized 1:1:1:1:1:1 to the 6 treatment allocations. This abstract focuses on whether early treatment with metformin prevented Long Covid. Immediate release metformin was titrated to 1500mg daily over the first 6 days. We assessed the incidence of clinician-diagnosed Long Covid with follow up through 10 months after enrollment. We also assessed where participants were diagnosed with Long Covid, and where they received Long Covid treatment. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Of 1124 participants, 98 (8.7%) report having a healthcare provider make a diagnosis of long covid. By arm, 6.9% (39/564) of metformin participants report having a diagnosis for long covid as compared with 10.5% (59/560) of matched placebo controls. The absolute reduction attributable to metformin was 3.6% (95%CI, 0.3% to 7.0%; P=0.031) with a relative risk reduction of 34% (95%CI, 3% to 55%). The metformin cost per long covid case averted was $28 (95%CI, $15 to $306). 10-month follow-up data will be available at the time of presentation as well as an analysis of baseline factors associated with the development of Long-Covid, independent of treatment allocation in the trial. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Metformin reduced the incidence of clinician-diagnosed long covid by 34% in a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled trial, and previous research published in-vitro activity by metformin against SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses. Further investigation of metformin as early treatment for SARS-CoV-2 is warranted.
Reward processing has been proposed to underpin the atypical social feature of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous neuroimaging studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the specificity of atypicalities for social reward processing in ASD.
Utilising a large sample, we aimed to assess reward processing in response to reward type (social, monetary) and reward phase (anticipation, delivery) in ASD.
Functional magnetic resonance imaging during social and monetary reward anticipation and delivery was performed in 212 individuals with ASD (7.6–30.6 years of age) and 181 typically developing participants (7.6–30.8 years of age).
Across social and monetary reward anticipation, whole-brain analyses showed hypoactivation of the right ventral striatum in participants with ASD compared with typically developing participants. Further, region of interest analysis across both reward types yielded ASD-related hypoactivation in both the left and right ventral striatum. Across delivery of social and monetary reward, hyperactivation of the ventral striatum in individuals with ASD did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Dimensional analyses of autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) scores were not significant. In categorical analyses, post hoc comparisons showed that ASD effects were most pronounced in participants with ASD without co-occurring ADHD.
Our results do not support current theories linking atypical social interaction in ASD to specific alterations in social reward processing. Instead, they point towards a generalised hypoactivity of ventral striatum in ASD during anticipation of both social and monetary rewards. We suggest this indicates attenuated reward seeking in ASD independent of social content and that elevated ADHD symptoms may attenuate altered reward seeking in ASD.
To evaluate the construct validity of the NIH Toolbox Cognitive Battery (NIH TB-CB) in the healthy oldest-old (85+ years old).
Our sample from the McKnight Brain Aging Registry consists of 179 individuals, 85 to 99 years of age, screened for memory, neurological, and psychiatric disorders. Using previous research methods on a sample of 85 + y/o adults, we conducted confirmatory factor analyses on models of NIH TB-CB and same domain standard neuropsychological measures. We hypothesized the five-factor model (Reading, Vocabulary, Memory, Working Memory, and Executive/Speed) would have the best fit, consistent with younger populations. We assessed confirmatory and discriminant validity. We also evaluated demographic and computer use predictors of NIH TB-CB composite scores.
Findings suggest the six-factor model (Vocabulary, Reading, Memory, Working Memory, Executive, and Speed) had a better fit than alternative models. NIH TB-CB tests had good convergent and discriminant validity, though tests in the executive functioning domain had high inter-correlations with other cognitive domains. Computer use was strongly associated with higher NIH TB-CB overall and fluid cognition composite scores.
The NIH TB-CB is a valid assessment for the oldest-old samples, with relatively weak validity in the domain of executive functioning. Computer use’s impact on composite scores could be due to the executive demands of learning to use a tablet. Strong relationships of executive function with other cognitive domains could be due to cognitive dedifferentiation. Overall, the NIH TB-CB could be useful for testing cognition in the oldest-old and the impact of aging on cognition in older populations.
Cognitive therapy and behavioural activation are both widely applied and effective psychotherapies for depression, but it is unclear which works best for whom. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis allows for examining moderators at the participant level and can provide more precise effect estimates than conventional meta-analysis, which is based on study-level data.
This article describes the protocol for a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis that aims to compare the efficacy of cognitive therapy and behavioural activation for adults with depression, and to explore moderators of treatment effect. (PROSPERO: CRD42022341602)
Systematic literature searches will be conducted in PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, to identify randomised clinical trials comparing cognitive therapy and behavioural activation for adult acute-phase depression. Investigators of these trials will be invited to share their participant-level data. One-stage IPD meta-analyses will be conducted with mixed-effects models to assess treatment effects and to examine various available demographic, clinical and psychological participant characteristics as potential moderators. The primary outcome measure will be depressive symptom level at treatment completion. Secondary outcomes will include post-treatment anxiety, interpersonal functioning and quality of life, as well as follow-up outcomes.
To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first IPD meta-analysis concerning cognitive therapy versus behavioural activation for adult depression. This study has the potential to enhance our knowledge of depression treatment by using state-of-the-art statistical techniques to compare the efficacy of two widely used psychotherapies, and by shedding more light on which of these treatments might work best for whom.
Background: The estimated economic cost of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is $5.4 billion annually, primarily attributed to acute-care costs. We previously reported data from ECOSPOR III that SER-109, an investigational oral microbiome therapeutic, was superior to placebo in reducing recurrent CDI (rCDI) in adults at 8 weeks after treatment, with a 68% relative risk reduction. Adults with rCDI have more hospitalizations and emergency room (ER) visits (defined herein as healthcare resource utilization, HRU) compared to those without recurrence. Thus, we evaluated incidence of HRU. Methods: Adults with rCDI (≥3 episodes in 12 months) were screened at 56 US and Canadian sites and were randomized 1:1 to SER-109 (4 capsules × 3 days) or placebo following resolution of CDI with standard-of-care CDI antibiotics. The primary end point was rCDI at 8 weeks. Exploratory end points included cumulative incidence of hospitalizations through 24 weeks after treatment. Here, we report cumulative incidence of all-cause HRU through 8 weeks after treatment. Results: In total, 281 patients were screened and 182 were randomized (59.9% female; mean age 65.5 years; 98.9% outpatient). Overall, 31 patients (17%) had 38 hospitalizations or ER visits through week 8 (11 events in 10 SER-109 patients and 27 events in 21 placebo patients) (Table 1). The cumulative incidence of HRU was lower in SER-109–treated patients compared to placebo at both weeks 4 and 8 with most events (65.8%) recorded within 4 weeks after treatment. The adjusted HRU incidence rate (by person time, age, sex, and antibiotic use) was also lower in SER-109–treated patients compared to placebo at weeks 4 and 8 (0.256 [95% CI, 0.096–0.683] versus 0.417 [95% CI, 0.199–0.873], respectively). Conclusions: SER-109–treated patients had less HRU compared to placebo patients through 8 weeks after treatment in this mostly outpatient population. These data suggest a potential benefit of SER-109 in reducing HRU, thus lowering the healthcare burden of rCDI.
Autism and autistic traits are risk factors for suicidal behaviour.
To explore the prevalence of autism (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in those who died by suicide, and identify risk factors for suicide in this group.
Stage 1: 372 coroners’ inquest records, covering the period 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017 from two regions of England, were analysed for evidence that the person who died had diagnosed autism or undiagnosed possible autism (elevated autistic traits), and identified risk markers. Stage 2: 29 follow-up interviews with the next of kin of those who died gathered further evidence of autism and autistic traits using validated autism screening and diagnostic tools.
Stage 1: evidence of autism (10.8%) was significantly higher in those who died by suicide than the 1.1% prevalence expected in the UK general alive population (odds ratio (OR) = 11.08, 95% CI 3.92–31.31). Stage 2: 5 (17.2%) of the follow-up sample had evidence of autism identified from the coroners’ records in stage 1. We identified evidence of undiagnosed possible autism in an additional 7 (24.1%) individuals, giving a total of 12 (41.4%); significantly higher than expected in the general alive population (1.1%) (OR = 19.76, 95% CI 2.36–165.84). Characteristics of those who died were largely similar regardless of evidence of autism, with groups experiencing a comparably high number of multiple risk markers before they died.
Elevated autistic traits are significantly over-represented in those who die by suicide.
Food insecurity is associated with numerous adverse health outcomes. The US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) began universal food insecurity screening in 2017. This study examined prevalence and correlates of food insecurity among Veterans screened.
Retrospective cross-sectional study using VHA administrative data. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated to identify sociodemographic and medical characteristics associated with a positive food insecurity screen.
All US Veterans Administration (VA) medical centres (n 161).
All Veterans were screened for food insecurity since screening initiation (July 2017–December 2018).
Of 3 304 702 Veterans screened for food insecurity, 44 298 were positive on their initial screen (1·3 % of men; 2·0 % of women). Food insecurity was associated with identifying as non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic. Veterans who were non-married/partnered, low-income Veterans without VA disability-related compensation and those with housing instability had higher odds of food insecurity, as did Veterans with a BMI < 18·5, diabetes, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Prior military sexual trauma (MST) was associated with food insecurity among both men and women. Women screening positive, however, were eight times more likely than men to have experienced MST (48·9 % v. 5·9 %).
Food insecurity was associated with medical and trauma-related comorbidities as well as unmet social needs including housing instability. Additionally, Veterans of colour and women were at higher risk for food insecurity. Findings can inform development of tailored interventions to address food insecurity such as more frequent screening among high-risk populations, onsite support applying for federal food assistance programs and formal partnerships with community-based resources.
Agitation is a common complication of Alzheimer’s dementia (Agit-AD) associated with substantial morbidity, high healthcare service utilization, and adverse emotional and physical impact on care partners. There are currently no FDA-approved pharmacological treatments for Agit-AD. We present the study design and baseline data for an ongoing multisite, three-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of dronabinol (synthetic tetrahydrocannabinol [THC]), titrated to a dose of 10 mg daily, in 80 participants to examine the safety and efficacy of dronabinol as an adjunctive treatment for Agit-AD. Preliminary findings for 44 participants enrolled thus far show a predominately female, white sample with advanced cognitive impairment (Mini Mental Status Examination mean 7.8) and agitation (Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Clinician Agitation subscale mean 14.1). Adjustments to study design in light of the COVID-19 pandemic are described. Findings from this study will provide guidance for the clinical utility of dronabinol for Agit-AD. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02792257.
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic of 2020-2021 created unprecedented challenges for clinicians in critical care transport (CCT). These CCT services had to rapidly adjust their clinical approaches to evolving patient demographics, a preponderance of respiratory failure, and transport utilization stratagem. Organizations had to develop and implement new protocols and guidelines in rapid succession, often without the education and training that would have been involved pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These changes were complicated by the need to protect crew members as well as to optimize patient care. Clinical initiatives included developing an awake proning transport protocol and a protocol to transport intubated proned patients. One service developed a protocol for helmet ventilation to minimize aerosolization risks for patients on noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV). While these clinical protocols were developed specifically for COVID-19, the growth in practice will enhance the care of patients with other causes of respiratory failure. Additionally, these processes will apply to future respiratory epidemics and pandemics.
Vast disparities between and within American states’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have evoked renewed attention to whether greater centralization might enhance investments in subnational capacity and remedy subnational inequalities or instead erode subnational organizational capacity. Developments in American public education (1997–2015) offer perspective on this puzzle, which we examine by applying interrupted time series analysis to a novel dataset to assess the implications of centralization on subnational investments in administrative and technical capacity, two dimensions of organizational capacity. We find simultaneous subnational erosion in administrative capacity and growth in technical capacity following centralization, both of which appear concentrated in low-poverty areas despite centralization’s explicit antipoverty purposes. Public education reforms highlight both the challenge of dismantling subnational inequality through centralization and the need for future research on policy designs that enable centralization to yield subnational capacity that is able to remedy inequality.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination effectiveness in healthcare personnel (HCP) has been established. However, questions remain regarding its performance in high-risk healthcare occupations and work locations. We describe the effect of a COVID-19 HCP vaccination campaign on SARS-CoV-2 infection by timing of vaccination, job type, and work location.
We conducted a retrospective review of COVID-19 vaccination acceptance, incidence of postvaccination COVID-19, hospitalization, and mortality among 16,156 faculty, students, and staff at a large academic medical center. Data were collected 8 weeks prior to the start of phase 1a vaccination of frontline employees and ended 11 weeks after campaign onset.
The COVID-19 incidence rate among HCP at our institution decreased from 3.2% during the 8 weeks prior to the start of vaccinations to 0.38% by 4 weeks after campaign initiation. COVID-19 risk was reduced among individuals who received a single vaccination (hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40–0.68; P < .0001) and was further reduced with 2 doses of vaccine (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.09–0.32; P < .0001). By 2 weeks after the second dose, the observed case positivity rate was 0.04%. Among phase 1a HCP, we observed a lower risk of COVID-19 among physicians and a trend toward higher risk for respiratory therapists independent of vaccination status. Rates of infection were similar in a subgroup of nurses when examined by work location.
Our findings show the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in HCP. Despite these encouraging results, unvaccinated HCP remain at an elevated risk of infection, highlighting the need for targeted outreach to combat vaccine hesitancy.
Bleeding in the perioperative period of congenital heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass is associated with increased morbidity and mortality both from the direct effects of haemorrhage as well as the therapies deployed to restore haemostasis. Perioperative bleeding is complex and multifactorial with both patient and procedural contributions. Moreover, neonates and infants are especially at risk. The objective of this review is to summarise the evidence regarding bleeding management in paediatric surgical patients and identify strategies that might facilitate appropriate bleeding management while minimising the risk of thrombosis. We will address the use of standard and point-of-care tests, and the role of contemporary coagulation factors and other novel drugs.
The objectives of this study were (1) to develop and validate a simulation model to estimate daily probabilities of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs), length of stay (LOS), and mortality using time varying patient- and unit-level factors including staffing adequacy and (2) to examine whether HAI incidence varies with staffing adequacy.
The study was conducted at 2 tertiary- and quaternary-care hospitals, a pediatric acute care hospital, and a community hospital within a single New York City healthcare network.
All patients discharged from 2012 through 2016 (N = 562,435).
We developed a non-Markovian simulation to estimate daily conditional probabilities of bloodstream, urinary tract, surgical site, and Clostridioides difficile infection, pneumonia, length of stay, and mortality. Staffing adequacy was modeled based on total nurse staffing (care supply) and the Nursing Intensity of Care Index (care demand). We compared model performance with logistic regression, and we generated case studies to illustrate daily changes in infection risk. We also described infection incidence by unit-level staffing and patient care demand on the day of infection.
Most model estimates fell within 95% confidence intervals of actual outcomes. The predictive power of the simulation model exceeded that of logistic regression (area under the curve [AUC], 0.852 and 0.816, respectively). HAI incidence was greatest when staffing was lowest and nursing care intensity was highest.
This model has potential clinical utility for identifying modifiable conditions in real time, such as low staffing coupled with high care demand.