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Incremental prediction of aggression from callous–unemotional (CU) traits is well established, but cross-cultural replication and studies of young children are needed. Little is understood about the contribution of CU traits in children who are already aggressive. We addressed these issues in prospective studies in the United Kingdom and Colombia. In a UK epidemiological cohort, CU traits and aggression were assessed at age 3.5 years, and aggression at 5.0 years by mothers (N = 687) and partners (N = 397). In a Colombian general population sample, CU traits were assessed at age 3.5 years and aggression at 3.5 and 5.0 years by mother report (N = 220). Analyses consistently showed prediction of age-5.0 aggression by age-3.5 CU traits controlling for age-3.5 aggression. Associations between age-3.5 CU traits and age-5.0 aggression were moderated by aggression at 3.5 years, with UK interaction terms, same informant, β = .07 p = .014 cross-informant, β = .14 p = .002, and in Colombia, β = .09 p = .128. The interactions arose from stronger associations between CU traits and later aggression in those already aggressive. Our findings with preschoolers replicated across culturally diverse settings imply a major role for CU traits in the maintenance and amplification of already established aggression, and cast doubt on their contribution to its origins.
Salmonella enterica serovar Wangata (S. Wangata) is an important cause of endemic salmonellosis in Australia, with human infections occurring from undefined sources. This investigation sought to examine possible environmental and zoonotic sources for human infections with S. Wangata in north-eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The investigation adopted a One Health approach and was comprised of three complimentary components: a case–control study examining human risk factors; environmental and animal sampling; and genomic analysis of human, animal and environmental isolates. Forty-eight human S. Wangata cases were interviewed during a 6-month period from November 2016 to April 2017, together with 55 Salmonella Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) controls and 130 neighbourhood controls. Indirect contact with bats/flying foxes (S. Typhimurium controls (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06–6.48)) (neighbourhood controls (aOR 8.33, 95% CI 2.58–26.83)), wild frogs (aOR 3.65, 95% CI 1.32–10.07) and wild birds (aOR 6.93, 95% CI 2.29–21.00) were statistically associated with illness in multivariable analyses. S. Wangata was detected in dog faeces, wildlife scats and a compost specimen collected from the outdoor environments of cases’ residences. In addition, S. Wangata was detected in the faeces of wild birds and sea turtles in the investigation area. Genomic analysis revealed that S. Wangata isolates were relatively clonal. Our findings suggest that S. Wangata is present in the environment and may have a reservoir in wildlife populations in north-eastern NSW. Further investigation is required to better understand the occurrence of Salmonella in wildlife groups and to identify possible transmission pathways for human infections.
Introduction: Unnecessary care is an increasingly commonly used term in medicine. Previous survey research suggests that definitions of unnecessary care vary within and among professional and patient groups. This research explores how emergency physicians and administrators understand the term unnecessary care. Methods: Site chiefs and emergency physicians in an Alberta region were recruited through email and online surveys respectively for a qualitative study. One hour one-on-one in-depth interviews explored understandings of unnecessary care within the emergency department (ED) context. Interview transcripts underwent thematic analysis. Results: Five physicians and seven site chiefs completed interviews. Two key themes emerged. First, interviewees conceptualized unnecessary care as inappropriate or non-urgent presentations. This patient-centric view raised non-urgent ED presentations as a health system problem with complex components, including: lack of public knowledge of healthcare resources, shrinking comfort and scope of community providers and patient willingness to utilize other resources. Despite concerns over non-urgent visits, interviewees expressed that these patients still need to be seen, assessed and managed. The second conceptualization focused on over-investigation (and to lesser extent, treatment). This physician-centric conceptualization identified issues around: variation in physician risk tolerance, established decision rules with the allowable miss rates, patient expectation for testing or physician feeling that the patient was owed something or that patient would not accept their diagnosis/treatment without testing. Additionally, interviewees described patient characteristics that may initiate more aggressive investigation (e.g., patient reliability, follow-up care access, etc.). An overarching concern about the connection between unnecessary care and wasted resources was identified. Additionally, interviewees emphasized that patient conversations are outside the scope of unnecessary care despite their possible implications for limited time resources. Conclusion: A range of concepts surrounding unnecessary care in the ED were identified. Further exploring nuances of these conceptualizations may inform and improve the effectiveness of campaigns seeking to improve efficiency in practice and reduce inappropriate care. Additionally, this work provides an impetus for developing clearer concepts of care within the ED.
The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is caused by a novel coronavirus discovered in 2012. Since then, 1806 cases, including 564 deaths, have been reported by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and affected countries as of 1 June 2016. Previous literature attributed increases in MERS-CoV transmission to camel breeding season as camels are likely the reservoir for the virus. However, this literature review and subsequent analysis indicate a lack of seasonality. A retrospective, epidemiological cluster analysis was conducted to investigate increases in MERS-CoV transmission and reports of household and nosocomial clusters. Cases were verified and associations between cases were substantiated through an extensive literature review and the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch's Tiered Source Classification System. A total of 51 clusters were identified, primarily nosocomial (80·4%) and most occurred in KSA (45·1%). Clusters corresponded temporally with the majority of periods of greatest incidence, suggesting a strong correlation between nosocomial transmission and notable increases in cases.
Considerable research has documented that exposure to traumatic events has negative effects on physical and mental health. Much less research has examined the predictors of traumatic event exposure. Increased understanding of risk factors for exposure to traumatic events could be of considerable value in targeting preventive interventions and anticipating service needs.
General population surveys in 24 countries with a combined sample of 68 894 adult respondents across six continents assessed exposure to 29 traumatic event types. Differences in prevalence were examined with cross-tabulations. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted to determine whether traumatic event types clustered into interpretable factors. Survival analysis was carried out to examine associations of sociodemographic characteristics and prior traumatic events with subsequent exposure.
Over 70% of respondents reported a traumatic event; 30.5% were exposed to four or more. Five types – witnessing death or serious injury, the unexpected death of a loved one, being mugged, being in a life-threatening automobile accident, and experiencing a life-threatening illness or injury – accounted for over half of all exposures. Exposure varied by country, sociodemographics and history of prior traumatic events. Being married was the most consistent protective factor. Exposure to interpersonal violence had the strongest associations with subsequent traumatic events.
Given the near ubiquity of exposure, limited resources may best be dedicated to those that are more likely to be further exposed such as victims of interpersonal violence. Identifying mechanisms that account for the associations of prior interpersonal violence with subsequent trauma is critical to develop interventions to prevent revictimization.
Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers.
A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004–2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011–2013 sample.
Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80–0.82 in 2004–2009 and 0.77 in the 2011–2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2–33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004–2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011–2013 validation sample.
Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.
Amorphous solid water (ASW) is of great importance in astrochemistry as it has been detected in star forming regions, comets, and cold solar-system objects. A key property of ASW is its porous nature (with the extent of porosity reflecting the formation and growth conditions) and the subsequent pore collapse when the ice is heated. If interstellar ices are porous there are huge implications to both the process of planet formation and the budgets of molecular gas in the solid and gas phases. It is therefore vital to understand ASW porosity over astronomically relevant conditions in order to effectively model its potential effects on these processes.
The aim of this study was to compare sensory processing in typically developing children (TDC), children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and those with sensory processing dysfunction (SPD) in the absence of an ASD. Performance-based measures of auditory and tactile processing were compared between male children ages 8–12 years assigned to an ASD (N=20), SPD (N=15), or TDC group (N=19). Both the SPD and ASD groups were impaired relative to the TDC group on a performance-based measure of tactile processing (right-handed graphesthesia). In contrast, only the ASD group showed significant impairment on an auditory processing index assessing dichotic listening, temporal patterning, and auditory discrimination. Furthermore, this impaired auditory processing was associated with parent-rated communication skills for both the ASD group and the combined study sample. No significant group differences were detected on measures of left-handed graphesthesia, tactile sensitivity, or form discrimination; however, more participants in the SPD group demonstrated a higher tactile detection threshold (60%) compared to the TDC (26.7%) and ASD groups (35%). This study provides support for use of performance-based measures in the assessment of children with ASD and SPD and highlights the need to better understand how sensory processing affects the higher order cognitive abilities associated with ASD, such as verbal and non-verbal communication, regardless of diagnostic classification. (JINS, 2015, 21, 444–454)
The Millimetre Astronomy Legacy Team 90 GHz (MALT90) survey aims to characterise the physical and chemical evolution of high-mass star-forming clumps. Exploiting the unique broad frequency range and on-the-fly mapping capabilities of the Australia Telescope National Facility Mopra 22 m single-dish telescope1, MALT90 has obtained 3′ × 3′ maps towards ~2 000 dense molecular clumps identified in the ATLASGAL 870 μm Galactic plane survey. The clumps were selected to host the early stages of high-mass star formation and to span the complete range in their evolutionary states (from prestellar, to protostellar, and on to
regions and photodissociation regions). Because MALT90 mapped 16 lines simultaneously with excellent spatial (38 arcsec) and spectral (0.11 km s−1) resolution, the data reveal a wealth of information about the clumps’ morphologies, chemistry, and kinematics. In this paper we outline the survey strategy, observing mode, data reduction procedure, and highlight some early science results. All MALT90 raw and processed data products are available to the community. With its unprecedented large sample of clumps, MALT90 is the largest survey of its type ever conducted and an excellent resource for identifying interesting candidates for high-resolution studies with ALMA.
A survey of the Milky Way disk and the Magellanic System at the wavelengths of the 21-cm atomic hydrogen (H i) line and three 18-cm lines of the OH molecule will be carried out with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder telescope. The survey will study the distribution of H i emission and absorption with unprecedented angular and velocity resolution, as well as molecular line thermal emission, absorption, and maser lines. The area to be covered includes the Galactic plane (|b| < 10°) at all declinations south of δ = +40°, spanning longitudes 167° through 360°to 79° at b = 0°, plus the entire area of the Magellanic Stream and Clouds, a total of 13 020 deg2. The brightness temperature sensitivity will be very good, typically σT≃ 1 K at resolution 30 arcsec and 1 km s−1. The survey has a wide spectrum of scientific goals, from studies of galaxy evolution to star formation, with particular contributions to understanding stellar wind kinematics, the thermal phases of the interstellar medium, the interaction between gas in the disk and halo, and the dynamical and thermal states of gas at various positions along the Magellanic Stream.
The effects of vascular rarefaction (the loss of small arteries) on the circulation of blood are studied using a multiscale mathematical model that can predict blood flow and pressure in the systemic and pulmonary arteries. We augmented a model originally developed for the systemic arteries by Olufsen and coworkers and Ottesen et al. (2004) to (a) predict flow and pressure in the pulmonary arteries, and (b) predict pressure propagation along the small arteries in the vascular beds. The systemic and pulmonary arteries are modelled as separate bifurcating trees of compliant and tapering vessels. Each tree is divided into two parts representing the ‘large’ and ‘small’ arteries. Blood flow and pressure in the large arteries are predicted using a nonlinear cross-sectional-area-averaged model for a Newtonian fluid in an elastic tube with inflow obtained from magnetic resonance measurements. Each terminal vessel within the network of the large arteries is coupled to a vascular bed of small ‘resistance’ arteries, which are modelled as asymmetric structured trees with specified area and asymmetry ratios between the parent and daughter arteries. For the systemic circulation, each structured tree represents a specific vascular bed corresponding to major organs and limbs. For the pulmonary circulation, there are four vascular beds supplied by the interlobar arteries. This paper presents the first theoretical calculations of the propagation of the pressure and flow waves along systemic and pulmonary large and small arteries. Results for all networks are in agreement with published observations. Two studies were done with this model. First, we showed how rarefaction can be modelled by pruning the tree of arteries in the microvascular system. This was done by modulating parameters used for designing the structured trees. Results showed that rarefaction leads to increased mean and decreased pulse pressure in the large arteries. Second, we investigated the impact of decreasing vessel compliance in both large and small arteries. Results showed that the effects of decreased compliance in the large arteries far outweigh the effects observed when decreasing the compliance of the small arteries. We further showed that a decrease of compliance in the large arteries results in pressure increases consistent with observations of isolated systolic hypertension, as occurs in ageing.
Background: Balance exercise is an important component of falls-prevention interventions, with growing evidence that it can be beneficial for people with Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, to implement a balance exercise program successfully for people with AD it is important to consider factors that can affect commencement and adherence to the program. This qualitative study explored these factors.
Methods: Ten participants with AD, who had completed a six-month home-based balance exercise program, and their caregivers (n = 9) participated. A phenomenological theoretical framework with semi-structured interviews was used for data collection and analysis.
Results: Factors influencing the decision to commence the program were: possible benefits of the program, recommendations from health professionals, value of research, positive attitude towards exercise, and minimizing caregivers’ burden. Factors influencing adherence to the program were grouped under 11 themes: six themes facilitated completion (program characteristics, physiotherapist, exercise recording sheet, caregivers’ support, sense of commitment, and perceived benefit) and five themes were barriers (pre-existing conditions, dislike of structured exercise, absence from home, caregiver's health or commitment, and bad weather).
Conclusions: A home-based exercise program with regular support from a physiotherapist and caregiver are key elements facilitating continuing program adherence in people with AD.
Multiple salmonellosis outbreaks have been linked to contaminated tomatoes. We investigated a multistate outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium infections among 190 cases. For hypothesis generation, review of patients' food histories from four restaurant-associated clusters in four states revealed that large tomatoes were the only common food consumed by patients. Two case-control studies were conducted to identify food exposures associated with infections. In a study conducted in nine states illness was significantly associated with eating raw, large, round tomatoes in a restaurant [matched odds ratio (mOR) 3·1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–7·3]. In a Minnesota study, illness was associated with tomatoes eaten at a restaurant (OR 6·3, mid-P 95% CI 1·05–50·4, P=0·046). State, local and federal regulatory officials traced the source of tomatoes to Ohio tomato fields, a growing area not previously identified in past tomato-associated outbreaks. Because tomatoes are commonly eaten raw, prevention of tomato contamination should include interventions on the farm, during packing, and at restaurants.