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During the past quarter-century, the field of high pressure research has undergone a quiet revolution. This has resulted from the creation and development of the diamond-anvil cell (DAC). Because diamonds are the hardest known materials, the highest static pressures can be attained and indefinitely held in these devices, recent pressure records have surpassed 400 GPa.
Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:
∙Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).
∙Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).
∙Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).
Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:
∙While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.
∙There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.
∙No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)
∙No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.
∙Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.
Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.
The Principal INvestigator Development and Resources (PINDAR) program was developed at the NYU-H+H Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) hub in response to a perceived need for focused good clinical practice (GCP) training designed specifically for principal investigators (PIs) performing human subject research. PINDAR is a novel 6-hour, instructor lead, participatory, in-person course for PIs developed de novo, piloted, and implemented. One hundred and seventeen faculty PIs participated in PINDAR from November 2016 through September 2018. All obtained mutual recognition for ICH E6 GCP training from TransCelerate Biopharma. PINDAR was well received by participant PIs, and feedback surveys have revealed a high degree of satisfaction with the program. Other CTSA hubs and research-intensive health systems should consider adopting a similar course focused on GCP for PIs.
Hookworms of the genus Uncinaria parasitize pinniped pups in various locations worldwide. Four species have been described, two of which parasitize pinniped pups in the southern hemisphere: Uncinaria hamiltoni parasitizes Otaria flavescens and Arctocephalus australis from the South American coast, and Uncinaria sanguinis parasitizes Neophoca cinerea from the Australian coast. However, their geographical ranges and host specificity are unknown. Uncinaria spp. are morphologically similar, but molecular analyses have allowed the recognition of new species in the genus Uncinaria. We used nuclear genetic markers (internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and large subunit (LSU) rDNA) and a mitochondrial genetic marker (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI)) to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships of Uncinaria spp. parasitizing A. australis and O. flavescens from South American coasts (Atlantic and Pacific coasts). We compared our sequences with published Uncinaria sequences. A Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) analysis was also used to delimit species, and principal component analysis was used to compare morphometry among Uncinaria specimens. Parasites were sampled from A. australis from Peru (12°S), southern Chile (42°S), and the Uruguayan coast, and from O. flavescens from northern Chile (24°S) and the Uruguayan coast. Morphometric differences were observed between Uncinaria specimens from both South American coasts and between Uncinaria specimens from A. australis in Peru and southern Chile. Phylogenetic and GMYC analyses suggest that south-eastern Pacific otariid species harbour U. hamiltoni and an undescribed putative species of Uncinaria. However, more samples from A. australis and O. flavescens are necessary to understand the phylogenetic patterns of Uncinaria spp. across the South Pacific.
To investigate whether amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) identified with visual memory tests conveys an increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease (risk-AD) and if the risk-AD differs from that associated with aMCI based on verbal memory tests.
4,771 participants aged 70.76 (SD = 6.74, 45.4% females) from five community-based studies, each a member of the international COSMIC consortium and from a different country, were classified as having normal cognition (NC) or one of visual, verbal, or combined (visual and verbal) aMCI using international criteria and followed for an average of 2.48 years. Hazard ratios (HR) and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis analyzed the risk-AD with age, sex, education, single/multiple domain aMCI, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores as covariates.
All aMCI groups (n = 760) had a greater risk-AD than NC (n = 4,011; HR range = 3.66 – 9.25). The risk-AD was not different between visual (n = 208, 17 converters) and verbal aMCI (n = 449, 29 converters, HR = 1.70, 95%CI: 0.88, 3.27, p = 0.111). Combined aMCI (n = 103, 12 converters, HR = 2.34, 95%CI: 1.13, 4.84, p = 0.023) had a higher risk-AD than verbal aMCI. Age and MMSE scores were related to the risk-AD. The IPD meta-analyses replicated these results, though with slightly lower HR estimates (HR range = 3.68, 7.43) for aMCI vs. NC.
Although verbal aMCI was most common, a significant proportion of participants had visual-only or combined visual and verbal aMCI. Compared with verbal aMCI, the risk-AD was the same for visual aMCI and higher for combined aMCI. Our results highlight the importance of including both verbal and visual memory tests in neuropsychological assessments to more reliably identify aMCI.
Magnetic field measurements in turbulent plasmas are often difficult to perform. Here we show that for
kG magnetic fields, a time-resolved Faraday rotation measurement can be made at the OMEGA laser facility. This diagnostic has been implemented using the Thomson scattering probe beam and the resultant path-integrated magnetic field has been compared with that of proton radiography. Accurate measurement of magnetic fields is essential for satisfying the scientific goals of many current laser–plasma experiments.
After the diagnosis of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMID) such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the incidence of psychiatric comorbidity is increased relative to the general population. We aimed to determine whether the incidence of psychiatric disorders is increased in the 5 years before the diagnosis of IMID as compared with the general population.
Using population-based administrative health data from the Canadian province of Manitoba, we identified all persons with incident IBD, MS and RA between 1989 and 2012, and cohorts from the general population matched 5 : 1 on year of birth, sex and region to each disease cohort. We identified members of these groups with at least 5 years of residency before and after the IMID diagnosis date. We applied validated algorithms for depression, anxiety disorders, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and any psychiatric disorder to determine the annual incidence of these conditions in the 5-year periods before and after the diagnosis year.
We identified 12 141 incident cases of IMID (3766 IBD, 2190 MS, 6350 RA) and 65 424 matched individuals. As early as 5 years before diagnosis, the incidence of depression [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.54; 95% CI 1.30–1.84) and anxiety disorders (IRR 1.30; 95% CI 1.12–1.51) were elevated in the IMID cohort as compared with the matched cohort. Similar results were obtained for each of the IBD, MS and RA cohorts. The incidence of bipolar disorder was elevated beginning 3 years before IMID diagnosis (IRR 1.63; 95% CI 1.10–2.40).
The incidence of psychiatric comorbidity is elevated in the IMID population as compared with a matched population as early as 5 years before diagnosis. Future studies should elucidate whether this reflects shared risk factors for psychiatric disorders and IMID, a shared final common inflammatory pathway or other aetiology.
We explore morphological, kinematic and chemical trends of boxy/peanut (b/p) bulges of Milky Way (MW)-type galaxies, to better understand the formation history of the MW’s bulge. We show, using N-body simulations with both a kinematically cold and a kinematically hot disc, that colder populations develop a more prominent bar and X-shaped peanut as compared to their hotter counterpart. Colder discs also exhibit lower line-of-sight velocities (when viewed edge-on) at the edges of the b/p compared to hot discs, in agreement with what is seen for the MW bulge. Furthermore, we explore an N-body model which has three co-spatial discs with metallicities which correspond to the stellar populations of the inner Milky Way, where the α-enhanced thick disc populations are massive and centrally concentrated. The metallicity trends seen in observations of the Bulge can be reproduced in the model without the need of adding any additional components, which hints to the disc origin of the MW’s bulge.
Haiti has the highest human rabies burden in the Western Hemisphere. There is no published literature describing the public's perceptions of rabies in Haiti, information that is critical to developing effective interventions and government policies. We conducted a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey of 550 community members and 116 health professionals in Pétionville, Haiti in 2013 to understand the perception of rabies in these populations. The majority of respondents (85%) knew that dogs were the primary reservoir for rabies, yet only 1% were aware that bats and mongooses could transmit rabies. Animal bites were recognized as a mechanism of rabies transmission by 77% of the population and 76% were aware that the disease could be prevented by vaccination. Of 172 persons reporting a bite, only 37% sought medical treatment. The annual bite incidence rate in respondents was 0·9%. Only 31% of bite victims reported that they started the rabies vaccination series. Only 38% of respondents reported that their dog had been vaccinated against rabies. The majority of medical professionals recognized that dogs were the main reservoir for rabies (98%), but only 28% reported bats and 14% reported mongooses as posing a risk for rabies infection. Bites were reported as a mechanism of rabies transmission by 73% of respondents; exposure to saliva was reported by 20%. Thirty-four percent of medical professionals reported they would wash a bite wound with soap and water and 2·8% specifically mentioned rabies vaccination as a component of post-bite treatment. The majority of healthcare professionals recommended some form of rabies assessment for biting animals; 68·9% recommended a 14-day observation period, 60·4% recommended a veterinary consultation, and 13·2% recommended checking the vaccination status of the animal. Fewer than 15% of healthcare professionals had ever received training on rabies prevention and 77% did not know where to go to procure rabies vaccine for bite victims. Both study populations had a high level of knowledge about the primary reservoir for rabies and the mode of transmission. However, there is a need to improve the level of knowledge regarding the importance of seeking medical care for dog bites and additional training on rabies prevention for healthcare professionals. Distribution channels for rabies vaccines should be evaluated, as the majority of healthcare providers did not know where rabies vaccines could be obtained. Canine rabies vaccination is the primary intervention for rabies control programmes, yet most owned dogs in this population were not vaccinated.
Photospheric parameters and abundances of 13 chemical species are presented for a sample of single-lined chromospherically active binaries from a differential LTE analysis of high-resolution spectra. Our results indicate that the X-ray active binaries studied are not as metal poor as previously claimed, but are at most mildly iron-depleted relative to the Sun (—0.41 ≲ [Fe/H] ≲ +0.11). A significant overabundance of several elements (e.g., Na, Mg, Al, Ca) is observed. The temperatures derived from the (V — R) and (V — I) colours are found to be significantly affected by activity processes.
We have built a new grid of synthetic spectra in the wavelength range λλ 4600-5600 Å for [α-elements/Fe] = 0.0, +0.2, +0.4 and +0.6. The Lick indices Mg2, Mgb, Fe5270 and Fe5335 are measured in all grid spectra, and their behaviour with stellar parameters is studied.
For the calculation of this new grid, the set of atomic and molecular constants was revised and model atmospheres with overshooting and mixing length parameters appropriate to reproduce the wings of the Hβ line (suitable to indicate temperatures) were computed. We also present a grid in the wavelength range λλ 6000 – 10200 Å. A computation of a high-resolution grid of spectra in the range λλ 3800–7000 Å, as well as a full grid in the range λλ 3000–10200 Å, to be further used in conjunction with evolutionary population synthesis models, are also underway.
Using new high resolution VLA and VLBA data and existing MERLIN data of 3C 67 and 3C 190, we find both sources have a complex spectral structure similar to larger Fanaroff-Riley type II sources. Our analysis of 3C 190 predicts either an unusually steep injection index of −0.8 and a young age, or a superposition of different age spectral components.
During the Early Jurassic, cyst-forming dinoflagellates began a long-term radiation that would portend ecological importance of these taxa in the pelagic plankton community throughout the rest of the Mesozoic era. The factors that contributed to the evolutionary success of dinoflagellates are poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between oceanographic and climatic conditions during the Hettangian–Toarcian interval in relation to the radiation of dinoflagellates and other organic-walled phytoplankton taxa in the Tethys Ocean. Our analysis is based on two data sets. The first includes δ13Ccarb, δ13Corg, total organic carbon (TOC), and quantitative palynological observations derived from the Mochras Core (Wales, U.K.), which spans the complete Early Jurassic. The second is a coupled Mg/Ca and δ18O record derived from analyses of belemnite calcite obtained from three sections in northern Spain, covering the upper Sinemurian to Toarcian. From these two data sets we reconstructed the influence of sea level, trophism, temperature, and salinity on dinoflagellate cyst abundance and diversity in northwest Europe. Our results suggest that organic-walled phytoplankton (acritarchs, prasinophytes, and dinoflagellates) diversity increased through the Early Jurassic. The radiation coincides with a long-term eustatic rise and overall increase in the areal extent of continental shelves, a factor critical to cyst germination. On shorter timescales, we observed short bursts of dinoflagellate diversification during the late Sinemurian and late Pliensbachian. The former diversification is consistent with the opening of the Hispanic Corridor during the late Sinemurian, which apparently allowed the pioneer dinoflagellate, Liasidium variabile, to invade the Tethys from the Paleo-Pacific. A true radiation pulse during the late Pliensbachian, with predominantly cold-water taxa, occurred during sea level fall, suggesting that climate change was critical to setting the evolutionary tempo. Our belemnite δ18O and Mg/Ca data indicate that late Pliensbachian water masses cooled (ΔT ≈ −6°C) and became more saline (ΔS ≈ +2 psu). Cooling episodes during generally warm and humid Early Jurassic climate conditions would have produced stronger winter monsoon northeast trade winds, resulting in hydrographic instability, increased vertical mixing, and ventilation of bottom waters. During the late Pliensbachian, dinoflagellates replaced green algae, including prasinophytes and acritarchs, as primary producers. By producing benthic resting cysts, dinoflagellates may have been better adapted to oxidized ocean regimes. This hypothesis is supported by palynological data from the early Toarcian ocean anoxic event, which was marked by highly stratified anoxic bottom water overlain by low-salinity, warm surface waters. These conditions were advantageous to green algae, while cyst-producing dinoflagellates temporarily disappeared. Our results suggest that the rise in dinoflagellate diversity later in the Jurassic appears to correspond to deep water ventilation as a result of the opening of the Atlantic seaway, conditions that appear to have simultaneously led to a loss of prasinophyte dominance in the global oceans.
To identify predictive factors and mortality of patients with influenza admitted to intensive care units (ICU) we carried out a prospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza in adult ICUs in a network of Canadian hospitals between 2006 and 2012. There were 626 influenza-positive patients admitted to ICUs over the six influenza seasons, representing 17·9% of hospitalized influenza patients, 3·1/10 000 hospital admissions. Variability occurred in admission rate and proportion of hospital influenza patients who were admitted to ICUs (proportion range by year: 11·7–29·4%; 21·3% in the 2009–2010 pandemic). In logistic regression models ICU patients were younger during the pandemic and post-pandemic period, and more likely to be obese than hospital non-ICU patients. Influenza B accounted for 14·2% of all ICU cases and had a similar ICU admission rate as influenza A. Influenza-related mortality was 17·8% in ICU patients compared to 2·0% in non-ICU patients.
Gaia's Radial Velocity Spectrometer (RVS) has been operating in routine phase for over one year since initial commissioning. RVS continues to work well but the higher than expected levels of straylight reduce the limiting magnitude. The end-of-mission radial-velocity (RV) performance requirement for G2V stars was 15 km s−1 at V = 16.5 mag. Instead, 15 km s−1 precision is achieved at 15 < V < 16 mag, consistent with simulations that predict a loss of 1.4 mag. Simulations also suggest that changes to Gaia's onboard software could recover ~0.14 mag of this loss. Consequently Gaia's onboard software was upgraded in April 2015. The status of this new commissioning period is presented, as well as the latest scientific performance of the on-ground processing of RVS spectra. We illustrate the implications of the RVS limiting magnitude on Gaia's view of the Milky Way's halo in 6D using the Gaia Universe Model Snapshot (GUMS).
We present the initial performance of the Gaia Radial Velocity Spectrometer, providing an overview of its performance, which is essentially nominal in terms of spectral resolution, throughput and operation, except for the presence of unexpectedly high levels of scattered background. This is mainly Solar in origin, and reduces the limiting magnitude for radial velocity measurements by ∼1 magnitude to V ∼ 16. Radial velocity calibration accuracies are compliant with requirements.